Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Plenty of work to do for the new Prime Minister, if his Newspoll debut offers even the slightest guide. ReachTEL seat polls offer a somewhat more mixed picture.

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor has opened a towering two-party lead of 56-44, compared with 51-49 in the last poll under Malcolm Turnbull a fortnight ago. Labor is up fully six points on the primary vote to 41%, while the Coalition is down four to 33%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down two to 7%. Bill Shorten also holds a 39-33 lead over Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister, which compares with 44-32 in Turnbull’s last poll. No indication yet of whether the normal field work dates of Thursday to Sunday, or the sample of 1600, were amended according to circumstances.

UPDATE: The Newspoll turns out to have been conducted from Friday to Saturday, so with Thursday chopped off the usual survey period, but with the sample size much as usual at 1783. It also has a best Liberal leader question that differs from earlier results in suggesting a transfer of support from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison, leaving Julie Bishop in first place on 29%, Morrison second on 25%, Turnbull third on 14%, and Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton at 11% and 6% respectively, much as they were before. A “more capable of handling the economy” question has Morrison leading Shorten 44-34. It doesn’t appear the usual leadership approval ratings were featured in the poll.

The Fairfax papers also have three ReachTEL polls for marginal Coalition seats, conducted over two nights rather than ReachTEL’s usual one and apparently with bigger than usual samples (I say apparently because each of the three results tables cites a sample size of 1047 respondents, which surely can’t be right). The results are highly diverse: strong for Peter Dutton in Dickson, adequate for Craig Laundy in Banks and disastrous for Michael Sukkar in Deakin. However, they differ from Newspoll in having Morrison leading Shorten on preferred prime minister.

• Peter Dutton leads 54-46 in Dickson, compared with his post-redistribution margin of 2.0%. Morrison holds a particularly big lead over Bill Shorten here as preferred prime minister, of 58.6-414.

• After a high-profile week of public support for Malcolm Turnbull, Craig Laundy leads 52-48 in Reid, compared with a post-redistribution margin of 4.7%. Morrison’s lead over Shorten is 55-45.

• Michael Sukkar, a conservative spear-carrier for the push to remove Malcolm Turnbull, trails Labor 53-47 in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, a 9.3% swing.

The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,354 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. ALP Primary with a 4 in front of it. Liberals will NOT like that.

    Wonder if that can be retained over the next few polls or reflected in others??

  2. Surely, the usual fieldwork dates were amended so they could get the PPM. Indeed, the TPP does seem to align with the PPM

  3. The great mind of Paul Murray on these Newspoll figures

    1. The Ipsos poll last week was 55-45 so clearly Turnbull is responsible for this dramatic fall in coalition 2pp.
    2. Morrison has gone from 0 to 33% in PPM in one week. A great result!

  4. Brown trouser territory for the Tories….a special mention and a very well done goes to Tony Abbott… almost single handedly have trashed your own party.
    We sincerely thank you.

  5. Puffytmd

    Feedback in my part of woods this week was simply ridicule.
    No other way to spin what happened as being a positive

  6. Mike


    ‏ @HikaEbop
    2m2 minutes ago

    On primary it’s 2 from ON and 4 from the libs directly to the ALP. All The leakage is to the left. The ‘base’ (extreme right) hasn’t shifted an inch but the moderates and centrist voters have run to Labor.
    The delusion that the ‘base’ can win elections is officially dead.

  7. Australian electorate: “We have warned you not to do this many, many times, but you keep going and doing it. Well, now we will give you a big smack so you don’t do it again.”

  8. “I did not dare hope for numbers like this.”

    Me neither, but good to see. Its the ALP primary that has me smiling. How long since we have seen that in the 40’s, what with the rise of the minor parties in the vote share??

    Ok, its a bounce and there will be a strong protest / disgust / reactionary component in that shift. But i’ll celebrate the win as much as i mourn a loss and its time for a drink. 🙂

    And wondering how much of this shift the ALP can retain and for how long?? With this out ScoMo will want to go long time as poss before an election.

  9. @Question…
    I’m hoping they decide to work in tandem…….Dutton has had his wings clipped…..he will not be happy.

  10. The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three

    The RW will not believe any of this. They will see fraud and set up.

  11. Somehow, I don’t think this is going to discourage Dutton from his leadership ambitions.

    Maybe the Coalition can go full NSW Labor and chew through three leaders in one term.

  12. This is almost too good to be true. Aren’t Labor supposed to be the disorganised party, always scared of breaks in the ranks, and struggling to get more than MOE ahead of the Coalition?

    Did you really get us here, Bill?

    Shorten, you are a bloody genius.

  13. These numbers came before the ‘loss’ of another popular Lib (to some at least) JBish.

    Knowing she has elected to leave as well, won’t help them much.

  14. Wouldn’t all this polling have been AFTER Morrison was sworn in. Otherwise, they could not get the PPM numbers. Certainly, the TPP and the PPM make sense together.

  15. “The delusion that the ‘base’ can win elections is officially dead.”

    Not on certain RW sites i drop in on its not. 🙂 There are a lot of fwarking delusional RWNuttjobies out there. We should all encourage them to maintain their delusions up to the next election please.

  16. Did JBishop’s resignation from the ministry get captured in this sample? Unlikely.

    Another potential hit to the coalition figures on the horizon.

  17. And Morrison hasn’t even done anything yet! Imagine what things will be like once he has to make tough decisions or deal with the next ministerial scandal.

  18. It was always going to be a terrible result for the government after the week that has happened.
    If Morrison can hold things together then there probably will be a slight rebound, but no where near enough to win the election. Something like 53-47 to Labor in a month or so.
    Otherwise we are heading towards a massive landside to Labor.

    The only way Labor do not win the election is if they self destruct.

  19. The PPM might also be unduly favourable to Morrison because a lot of voters do not want an early election. They interpret who would you prefer as Prime Minister with who do you want to be PM now. That could change when the election is called.
    It is remarkable that more people don’t want an election now.

  20. Thanks Jen.

    I just took a break after the long spell online yesterday.

    Its been a long week. I did run out of popcorn 🙂

  21. Good to see Morrison get a “dead cat” bounce ….

    If that’s a bounce, I’d hate to see what the voters really think of him!

  22. Yikes it’s potentiall even worse for the govt!

    Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
    16m16 minutes ago
    #Newspoll 2PP estimate by last-election preferences (after considering rounding in published result) ALP 57.1 – L-NP 42.9.

    (Last election preferences not necessarily better.)

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