The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor has opened a towering two-party lead of 56-44, compared with 51-49 in the last poll under Malcolm Turnbull a fortnight ago. Labor is up fully six points on the primary vote to 41%, while the Coalition is down four to 33%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down two to 7%. Bill Shorten also holds a 39-33 lead over Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister, which compares with 44-32 in Turnbull’s last poll. No indication yet of whether the normal field work dates of Thursday to Sunday, or the sample of 1600, were amended according to circumstances.
UPDATE: The Newspoll turns out to have been conducted from Friday to Saturday, so with Thursday chopped off the usual survey period, but with the sample size much as usual at 1783. It also has a best Liberal leader question that differs from earlier results in suggesting a transfer of support from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison, leaving Julie Bishop in first place on 29%, Morrison second on 25%, Turnbull third on 14%, and Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton at 11% and 6% respectively, much as they were before. A “more capable of handling the economy” question has Morrison leading Shorten 44-34. It doesn’t appear the usual leadership approval ratings were featured in the poll.
The Fairfax papers also have three ReachTEL polls for marginal Coalition seats, conducted over two nights rather than ReachTEL’s usual one and apparently with bigger than usual samples (I say apparently because each of the three results tables cites a sample size of 1047 respondents, which surely can’t be right). The results are highly diverse: strong for Peter Dutton in Dickson, adequate for Craig Laundy in Banks and disastrous for Michael Sukkar in Deakin. However, they differ from Newspoll in having Morrison leading Shorten on preferred prime minister.
• Peter Dutton leads 54-46 in Dickson, compared with his post-redistribution margin of 2.0%. Morrison holds a particularly big lead over Bill Shorten here as preferred prime minister, of 58.6-414.
• After a high-profile week of public support for Malcolm Turnbull, Craig Laundy leads 52-48 in Reid, compared with a post-redistribution margin of 4.7%. Morrison’s lead over Shorten is 55-45.
• Michael Sukkar, a conservative spear-carrier for the push to remove Malcolm Turnbull, trails Labor 53-47 in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, a 9.3% swing.
The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three seats.