Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Plenty of work to do for the new Prime Minister, if his Newspoll debut offers even the slightest guide. ReachTEL seat polls offer a somewhat more mixed picture.

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor has opened a towering two-party lead of 56-44, compared with 51-49 in the last poll under Malcolm Turnbull a fortnight ago. Labor is up fully six points on the primary vote to 41%, while the Coalition is down four to 33%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down two to 7%. Bill Shorten also holds a 39-33 lead over Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister, which compares with 44-32 in Turnbull’s last poll. No indication yet of whether the normal field work dates of Thursday to Sunday, or the sample of 1600, were amended according to circumstances.

UPDATE: The Newspoll turns out to have been conducted from Friday to Saturday, so with Thursday chopped off the usual survey period, but with the sample size much as usual at 1783. It also has a best Liberal leader question that differs from earlier results in suggesting a transfer of support from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison, leaving Julie Bishop in first place on 29%, Morrison second on 25%, Turnbull third on 14%, and Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton at 11% and 6% respectively, much as they were before. A “more capable of handling the economy” question has Morrison leading Shorten 44-34. It doesn’t appear the usual leadership approval ratings were featured in the poll.

The Fairfax papers also have three ReachTEL polls for marginal Coalition seats, conducted over two nights rather than ReachTEL’s usual one and apparently with bigger than usual samples (I say apparently because each of the three results tables cites a sample size of 1047 respondents, which surely can’t be right). The results are highly diverse: strong for Peter Dutton in Dickson, adequate for Craig Laundy in Banks and disastrous for Michael Sukkar in Deakin. However, they differ from Newspoll in having Morrison leading Shorten on preferred prime minister.

• Peter Dutton leads 54-46 in Dickson, compared with his post-redistribution margin of 2.0%. Morrison holds a particularly big lead over Bill Shorten here as preferred prime minister, of 58.6-414.

• After a high-profile week of public support for Malcolm Turnbull, Craig Laundy leads 52-48 in Reid, compared with a post-redistribution margin of 4.7%. Morrison’s lead over Shorten is 55-45.

• Michael Sukkar, a conservative spear-carrier for the push to remove Malcolm Turnbull, trails Labor 53-47 in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, a 9.3% swing.

The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,354 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. Yassmin Abdel-Magied was hounded out of Australia by shock jocks, Sky News and right-wing red-necked gutter trash.

    What a disgrace they are.

    “So bye-bye baby Yassmina. Bye bye, straighty-180 engineer, toothy-smiled TV presenter, giggling Good Muslim Girl who thought that her trio posse of innocence, positivity and optimism were all she needed. I’ve got new friends now.”

  2. Sitting at work in Deakin on my way to Chisholm – Julia Banks – that is damaging to the new happy Liberals.

    Saw this story on The Australian website

    Malcolm Turnbull’s critics were trying to warn him against straying from the conservative path. His clueless media boosters just didn’t see it.

    I thought it should have been reworded

    Sensible people were trying to keep Malcom Turnbull from straying to far away for mainstream Australia, as to do so would be a disaster for the Coalition. Dutton and Abbott’s clueless conservative media boosters just didn’t see it.

  3. a lot of talk about living with cockatiels ,I have lived with crocks for 48 years, in north Australia well actuary living beside them I don’t go into there camp & I stay out of there’s . They were here perhaps million’s of years before me ,so I owe them third place in a sadly detreating world. however they do need some control & a carefully controlled cull sometimes.

  4. Re ‘pairing’:
    In Australia, pairing occurs when MPs are unable to attend a vote, due to illness or personal emergency, or when on official business overseas or away from Canberra. There are no hard and fast rules. However, one party will not provide a pair to compensate for the absence of someone who is, for whatever reason, no longer a member of the relevant parliament. Turnbull will cease to be a member when his resignation takes effect.

    In the UK, at present, pairing is an arrangement between two MPs of opposing parties to not vote in a particular division. This enables an MP to be absent without affecting the result of the vote as they effectively cancel each other out. Pairing is an informal arrangement which is not recognised by the House of Commons but must be registered with the Whips. Pairing is not allowed in divisions of great political importance:

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