Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor

Plenty of work to do for the new Prime Minister, if his Newspoll debut offers even the slightest guide. ReachTEL seat polls offer a somewhat more mixed picture.

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor has opened a towering two-party lead of 56-44, compared with 51-49 in the last poll under Malcolm Turnbull a fortnight ago. Labor is up fully six points on the primary vote to 41%, while the Coalition is down four to 33%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is down two to 7%. Bill Shorten also holds a 39-33 lead over Scott Morrison on preferred prime minister, which compares with 44-32 in Turnbull’s last poll. No indication yet of whether the normal field work dates of Thursday to Sunday, or the sample of 1600, were amended according to circumstances.

UPDATE: The Newspoll turns out to have been conducted from Friday to Saturday, so with Thursday chopped off the usual survey period, but with the sample size much as usual at 1783. It also has a best Liberal leader question that differs from earlier results in suggesting a transfer of support from Malcolm Turnbull to Scott Morrison, leaving Julie Bishop in first place on 29%, Morrison second on 25%, Turnbull third on 14%, and Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton at 11% and 6% respectively, much as they were before. A “more capable of handling the economy” question has Morrison leading Shorten 44-34. It doesn’t appear the usual leadership approval ratings were featured in the poll.

The Fairfax papers also have three ReachTEL polls for marginal Coalition seats, conducted over two nights rather than ReachTEL’s usual one and apparently with bigger than usual samples (I say apparently because each of the three results tables cites a sample size of 1047 respondents, which surely can’t be right). The results are highly diverse: strong for Peter Dutton in Dickson, adequate for Craig Laundy in Banks and disastrous for Michael Sukkar in Deakin. However, they differ from Newspoll in having Morrison leading Shorten on preferred prime minister.

• Peter Dutton leads 54-46 in Dickson, compared with his post-redistribution margin of 2.0%. Morrison holds a particularly big lead over Bill Shorten here as preferred prime minister, of 58.6-414.

• After a high-profile week of public support for Malcolm Turnbull, Craig Laundy leads 52-48 in Reid, compared with a post-redistribution margin of 4.7%. Morrison’s lead over Shorten is 55-45.

• Michael Sukkar, a conservative spear-carrier for the push to remove Malcolm Turnbull, trails Labor 53-47 in his eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, a 9.3% swing.

The polls also find voter overwhelmingly opposed to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, opposed to an early election, not wanting Tony Abbott to return to the front bench, opposed to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, and broadly favourable views on Scott Morrison’s performance as Treasurer. There is no great variation on these results between the three seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,354 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor”

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  1. poroti
    Monday, August 27, 2018 at 10:41 pm
    Generic Person
    Think of it as Darwinism in action. Those that forget about crocs when drunk are removed from the gene pool whilst others like nath who remain sufficiently alert to crocs when drunk survive.
    Thanks poroti. I appreciate your support of my genetic material!

  2. “Fuck, this Q&A is depressing’

    I turned off as soon as Katter was told he needed to support migration because his grandfather was a migrant.

    Saying you have to support migration because someone in your family was a migrant is like saying you need to support the baby bonus because you were a baby once…and wait, …..your parents were babies once too. If you don’t support the baby bonus, you are denying your own existence, you don’t know what makes Australia great…blah blah blah

  3. I like Larissa but her comment about people learning to live with crocodiles was absurd.

    I think if there were crocs in the Brisbane river i would be all for culling.

    There is a great Roald Dahl book – The very hungry crocodile. He loves gobbling kiddies.

  4. That old ‘govts never win by-elections’ is a truism only until it isn’t …

    Times change, circumstances change. Not all things stay the same.

    If things like that never changed we’d have the same proportion of parties in parliament every time.

  5. So did anyone miss Essential?

    ‏ @GhostWhoVotes
    2h2 hours ago

    #Essential Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-3) ALP 55 (+3) #auspol

  6. Actually I thought the crocs mostly gobbled up Germans! Although one did take a little old lady with dementia a few months ago. She went for walk along the river bank.

  7. Mr Squiggle, the questioner was merely making the perfectly logical point that Katter’ father would not have been granted entry into the country under Anning’s proposed immigration model. Therefore I have no idea what you are droning on about.

  8. Alan Jones is on Qanda next week. Clearly the ABC darling given last week’s shenanigans.

    Maybe he’ll drop another racial slur.

  9. I’ve always wondered why we never tried integrating crocs into the armed forces. Dropping a few hundred on enemy positions before engaging, that sort of thing.

  10. I actually want to see the primaries from Essential – they break down Lib/Nats … I want to see how low the Lib primary is going.

    I know that it won’t stay so low – but after Longman, the Lib primary is soft-looking

  11. Farmer on ABC news bemoaning the fact that she cannot afford to keep her kid at boarding school…. oh how my heart bleeds for her.

  12. I thought that there were several recruited as members of he LNP.
    Eric Abetz looks a bit crocodilish to me. I wonder where he hides his eggs.

  13. School of the air mate, school of the air. It’s good enough for those without the funds who cannot afford to send their kids to boarding school….so?

  14. The farmers need to be directed to Centre Link….oh wait….lifters and leaners. The age of entitlement is over….wait….

  15. School of the air only operates up to years 8 or 9 from memory. You would have to go elsewhere for further education. If you could afford it you probs would send your kids to a boarding school for the entire HS period.

  16. Good on ya Clem – what about the poor bloody workers in drought effected communities. Farmers always have the hand out – always have the media onside – but the bloke who runs the local news agency or the Jillaroo who cant get any work gets SFA. The landed gentry – socialised losses and capitalised gains.

  17. After the turmoil of last week, one thing is clear, the Coalition are not only dysfunctional as a govt. They are dysfunctional as a party. They’re dysfunctional as infighters.

    The label ‘broad church’ really just signified a large group of dysfunctional people who cannot agree, even on the surface. They hid the dysfunction to a degree … but it is now exposed in all its unhappy glory.

    And the dysfunction really stems from delusion.

    Listening to Fierravanti-Wells (sp?) it is quite clear that from where she sits – the world is different to what is experienced by the rest of us. She should go join Bernardi … and they can nurse their delusions together. Abbott, and a few others should go too … because they certainly do not align their thinking with what the Liberal PArty should stand for.

  18. So true Upnorth. when my Old Man lost his job under Fraser back in the late 70’s he never got any special treatment. Nobody was shoveling thousands of dollars in his direction or worrying about whether he would keep our house, or if I could still attend school.

  19. I think the argument is that crocs have expanded beyond their previous natural range.

    Don’t know whether that’s true or not, but it’s a point worth canvassing.

    If they are encroaching onto urban areas – for whatever reason – it’s either them or us. We can’t have them eating people in our cities and towns.

    There must be millions of the blighters. A couple of hundred thousand culled (pour encourager Les autres, so to speak) wouldn’t send them into extinction, but might make urban areas safer.

  20. Plenty of Crocs in Ross River – right in the middle of Townsville. They are Johnston River Crocodiles – harmless unless cornered. Big Salties though I agree with BB – gotta keep them away from urban areas.

  21. Yes I think that if there were crocs swimming on Bondi beach occasionally eating a pommy tourist there would probably be a call to cull them – especially if floating ready to catch an unsuspecting kayaker in Sydney Harbour or strolling into someones’ gazebo.

  22. ‘Mr Squiggle, the questioner was merely making the perfectly logical point that Katter’ father would not have been granted entry into the country under Anning’s proposed immigration model.’

    I am surprised by this lack of perception. The question was clearly implying more than that

    There is an argument that is often made in support of the current record levels of migration that people are compelled to support migration because there are migrants in everyone’s family tree.

    For example, I was born in 1966 in Sydney, but my Father was born in the UK in 1942. Without migration, my parents would not have met, I would not exist, therefore, I am morally compelled to support migration in 2018. Do I value my life? If ‘yes’, I do value my life, then I should value migration. Migration brought me into this world, even though I was born here. Migration is a universal force for good, etc etc. Any fault I find with the current migration program should be dismissed.

    Likewise, according the argument, it does not matter where Bob Katter was born, or that he is alive in 2018 and has a role representing his constituents. What matters most in considering his calls for a cull in migration numbers is where Bob’s Grandfather was born. Each time Bob says migration numbers are too high, well, that’s just another loony populist policy, just like when he goes on about bats , or crocodiles, or better yet, how good it feels to own a gun in Australia.

    so, what I was saying to BB, is that I also turned off Q&A quite early tonight.

  23. I don’t see a problem with nailing the doors closed on that QANDA studio – complete with host, guests and audience still inside and dropping in a bakers dozen worth of 6 metre salt water crocs live on National TV. Now that really would be a popcorn worthy occasion.

  24. “ I think that if there were crocs swimming on Bondi beach occasionally eating a pommy tourist there would probably be a call to cull them”

    Sorry. They are not relatable victims.

  25. I have no idea why I’m bothering to tell you lot this, but I’ve just realised that yesterday was the 45th anniversary of my arrival in Australia (on a gap-year sort-of thing). I never left permanently. I’ve now spent over 70% of my life in Australia (“Oh, ag0044,” my Brit relatives say, “You do sound Orstralian”.)

    There’ll be a party at my place on 27 August 2023 to celebrate the 50th anniversary … if I survive the Pommie-hunting crocs that long.

  26. is PB any different from Q and A tonight … both shows have good moments but not just now

    actually wouldn’t know only consume one of them (which one is obvious and compliment to here

  27. “The idea that anyone would oppose keeping urban areas safe by shooting crocs is ludicrous in the extreme. Seriously.”

    You dont need to shoot crocs, you trap them and move them out. Bit like the Libs nuking Malky and Mutton from orbit over the weekend. Its the only way to be sure. 🙂

  28. Generic Person @ #1342 Tuesday, August 28th, 2018 – 12:43 am

    The idea that anyone would oppose keeping urban areas safe by shooting crocs is ludicrous in the extreme. Seriously.

    Explain why.

    Start by establishing the number of fatalities caused in “urban areas” by crocs so far this year. Then discuss how that number justifies sending out however many people with rifles to start shooting at wildlife, and why that’s a better idea than just not putting the urban areas in places that crocs live in the first place.

  29. guytaur says:
    Monday, August 27, 2018 at 8:32 pm
    Another point on immigration.

    I think the narrative has changed and has been recognised by Morrison. Thus his bringing people together (like the ABC advert). He knows Dutton is unpopular and has the nickname on twitter and here as Voldemort or the Dicatater etc.

    The LNP will have been getting polling telling them they have gone too far since the Senator Anning speech. So far even Hanson was keen to distance herself from the comments. I see it as a turning point as people start to think that maybe human rights should matter more.

    I could be wrong. However with polls as they are I hope that Labor can do something in government as the government fears. Pull the race baiting teeth of the LNP would be great.

    For many years Labor has been attacked by both the LNP and the Gs on this issue. In the last couple of years the intensity has faded to some extent, but the issue retains a lot of latent force. Labor will do nothing at all to reheat the issue. To do so would advantage Labor’s enemies – the LNP and the Gs – and yet would accomplish exactly nothing for refugees.

    The treatment of refugees has been shamelessly politicised for about 30 years, leading to their unrelenting exploitation for political purposes. This politicisation has been calmed to some extent and better policies will be adopted once Labor is returned to office, but this is not an issue that can be successfully dealt with on the terms preferred by the Gs or their alternates, the LNP.

  30. imacca says:
    Tuesday, August 28, 2018 at 12:53 am

    Is there something about FN QLD that makes people shouty?

    Far North Queensland, Florida. My theory is the white hairless monkeys do not do well in the tropics.

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