Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 54
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  1. Bushfire Bill @ #98 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 9:45 am

    There’s an article on the SMH that says the day of the Influencer is dead.

    Not only had I not heard of any of the Influencers mentioned, but I didn’t know what an Influencer was anyway, until I like read the article.

    They appear like to be people who like use the word “like” multiple times in like every sentence. They have collagen-pumped lips, Brazilian butts, funny hair-dos and like millions of like followers on Instagram (whatever Instagram is).

    Am I like square?

    Positively sharp edged like BB. Like get with it man.

  2. BB

    Yes. You are square. (edit: Nothing wrong with that. Comes from experience and long life) I am on Instagram. Social influencers term came about earlier with Youtube.

    e.g. Tyler Oakley. One such. Used his influence campaigning for Clinton in the Presidential election.

  3. SBS News
    ‏Verified account @SBSNews
    5m5 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Ex-archbishop Philip Wilson to serve his sentence in home detention.

  4. Adam Bandt has just said that Tony Abbott is the cold sore of Australian politics: painful, always unwanted & stops things from happening.

  6. #BREAKING: Ex-archbishop Philip Wilson to serve his sentence in home detention.
    _____
    ‘Twas always going to be.
    Now for the appeal I suppose.

  7. I think it is disingenuous for opinionistas on Assisted Dying and matters where religious dogma has absolute influence on policy to not declare their beliefs.

    ACT senator is a Catholic, and for all the reasons he gives as to why he opposes VAE, based mainly on the experience of other countries

    presumed autonomy actually becoming loss of autonomy
    inadequate palliative care can and should be available
    gradual broadening of limits to access to VAE

    he fails to mention what I assume is his core issue – that his god as effected by his religion forbids it.

    He should at least have the strength of belief to say so.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-i-m-voting-no-on-the-assisted-suicide-bill-seselja-20180813-p4zx94.html

  9. BB. A square? Sheer luxury. Back in my day we were triangles, in both directions, in the snow, with points… (apologies to all python fans)

  11. Am I like square?
    Yes. Or rectangular. There are like millions of kids either desperately trying to become an Influencer or being influenced by them.

    There seems to be like, you know, a generation of children and young adults unable to decipher real from fake – or willingly oblivious to the difference.

    I mean, like, it does also happen in older adults, like um, you know, the Trump supporters. Duh.

  12. It also points out that it is illegal to impersonate the “Australian Government”.

    Lucien and the Cabinet are in big trouble then.

  13. Stephen Spencer Retweeted
    James Mathison
    ‏Verified account @jamesmathison
    3h3 hours ago

    Having to apply for the grant AFTER you’ve received the $444 million is like winning the Powerball jackpot and THEN being asked to go buy the winning ticket.
    #reefgate #auspol

  14. guytaur @ #90 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 9:36 am

    DTT

    False equivalence. Obama did not allow mobile phones into the Situation Room like previous President’s

    Trump is like no other.

    Guytaur

    I cannot imagine that something like the security of the situation room would be a matter for the President at all!!!!!! I think the idea that Obama or any President would have the say about it is pretty silly . OK they may sign the order, but surely checking for bugs and mobile devices and any conceivable listening device within the situation room is a matter for the security agencies – whoever they may be in NSA etc – not sure of who does what.

    You might be right about it being sloppiness on the part of the Trump admin, but if they were that sloppy you can assume that there is somewhere inside a Chinese device, one from Mossad, two from MI6 one from France and one from Russia. There might even be one or two from India.

  15. Don
    Many years ago now, I new of a young girl whom had a cosmetic procedure to form a belly button upon reaching mid teens. The original was lost unfortunately, the result of an operation as a baby? Otherwise, the now wonderful lady would have been left with a vague memory.

  17. Normally, a convicted party in the Local Court who is appealing conviction will be bailed pending the hearing of the appeal. That is because the sentences would otherwise be largely served by the time of the appeal hearing.

    Maybe Wilson’s team may suggest he serve the home detention sentence as he will be needed in NSW for his appeal and with a view to arguing that time served is the appropriate sentence if the conviction is not set aside.

  18. DTT

    What you imagine and what is reality is different. I accept Roland Martin at his word on his different experiences of security at the White House. He appeared just after Omarosa on NBC.

  20. Bill Shorten’s opening comments to this morning’s party room meeting.
    “Today the government is back to doing their favourite past time – fighting each other. The only thing guaranteed to come it of today is higher power prices and less renewable energy. We have a cobbled together today a Frankenstein’s monster of a policy, whilst Mr Turnbull goes around attacking Mr Abbott, Mr Turnbull is in fact giving in to a lot of Mr Abbott’s values when it comes to climate change and energy.

    “What we will see is promises to deliver new money, new coal-fired power stations. We will see less renewable energy in the system which means higher prices. What we have now is the dreadful situation in Australia where Mr Turnbull is so weak that although he may call something an energy guarantee, the fact of the matter is he is surrendering energy policy making in this country to people who do not believe in climate change.

    What we must do every day between now and the next election, is stand up for more renewable energy, which will lead to lower energy prices and more action on climate.”

  22. guytaur @ #116 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 9:57 am

    DTT

    What you imagine and what is reality is different. I accept Roland Martin at his word on his different experiences of security at the White House. He appeared just after Omarosa on NBC.

    Guytaur

    I have not been following it that closely. Whoever was to blame, it is an appalling breach of security. Which is I guess my point.

  23. DTT

    Nah. You are doing the GOP distraction talking point. Its not the accepted appalling security lapse. Its the content of the tapes.

  25. In the real old days, squares were straights, and gays were queers. Heteros had ‘square’ parties, and the same sex attracted would gaggle off to a ‘queer’ party, often with some drag queens, and ne’er the two would intersect.

  26. guytaur says:

    DTT

    Nah. You are doing the GOP distraction talking point. Its not the accepted appalling security lapse. Its the content of the tapes.

    Yet for the leaked DNC emails re nobbling Sanders you said it was “the security lapse” rather than the “content” that was important ?

  27. Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    24s25 seconds ago

    ABC’s Tonightly with Tom Ballard won’t be renewed – “It is now time for a fresh approach.”

  28. Poroti

    In neither case have I denied the reality. I was right on the Clinton emails. Used to influence the election in Trump’s favour. I am right now. The content of the tapes show the chaos of Trump’s Presidency.

    Omarosa is arguing about Trump’s mental capacity to be President. Thats the content and context of her motives in leaking the tapes along with claiming racism.

  29. Zoidlord
    I think it’s time to review the whole ABC22 experiment! I used to watch that channel a lot but now hardly ever. For a so-called comedy channel I find it distinctly unfunny.

  31. Itzadream – Sydney Youth Orchestra were fantastic with Bruckner 8 on Saturday night. A few wobbly moments, of course, but they all hopped in and Bridger conducted the whole thing without a score (and was still jabbing out the cues after 70 minutes!). The Con is a much nicer venue too. A lot more fun than going down to the Opera House.

  32. His Honour and Mr Hodge are in the final stages of sinking Suncorp’s Maurizio Pinto for double charging its superannuation members for administration fees.

  33. I think it’s time to review the whole ABC22 experiment! I used to watch that channel a lot but now hardly ever. For a so-called comedy channel I find it distinctly unfunny.

    Whoa! Stop! What about Shaun the Sheep (tonight 7:20)? And before that…. Ben and Holly with the marvellous Nanny Plum!

  34. Paddy Manning‏Verified account @gpaddymanning · 2h2 hours ago

    One reason the NEG won’t be an end to energy wars because once settled the Coalition & business will attack Labor relentlessly on irresponsible targets all way to 2019 election. The government will claim credit for ending one war then prosecute a new one!

  37. Just what Sydney needs more coal mines. Onya Gladdie.
    .
    Government tests interest in Sydney’s first mining licence since 1993

    The Sydney basin faced the prospect of more coal mining after the Berejiklian government sought submissions of interest in what would be the first new exploration licence in the region in more than two decades
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/government-tests-interest-in-sydney-s-first-mining-licence-since-1993-20180813-p4zx7a.html

  38. poroti @ #126 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 10:07 am

    leaked DNC emails re nobbling Sanders

    Apples vs. oranges. And also, misleading characterization.

    “Leaked” implies that the emails were published by someone who was entitled to possess/access them and decided they needed to be taken public. A whistleblower, for instance.

    However the DNC emails were not leaked, they were hacked/stolen and then deliberately drip-fed in an elaborate campaign designed not to inform the public about anything important, but rather to maximize political damage against the Democrats.

    So you have:

    1. A foreign-run influence campaign illegally hacking and publishing DNC emails; and
    2. A legitimate WH employee, legally recording her employer

    Those things are not comparable. Only one involves a crime. Only one involves an actual security breach. Only one involves a hostile foreign actor running a deliberate political influence campaign.

    Apples vs. oranges.

  40. ar

    The boss cockies of the Democrats to subverting the process of selecting a presidential candidate is a far greater attack on democracy than the leak/hack .They are meant to be upholders of democracy.

  41. antonbruckner11 @ #131 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 10:20 am

    Itzadream – Sydney Youth Orchestra were fantastic with Bruckner 8 on Saturday night. A few wobbly moments, of course, but they all hopped in and Bridger conducted the whole thing without a score (and was still jabbing out the cues after 70 minutes!). The Con is a much nicer venue too. A lot more fun than going down to the Opera House.

    I’m thrilled to hear that ab11, cos I felt a bit responsible, but underwritten by Briger, harnessing the energy and enthusiasm of youth, it seemed like a good bet. Glad it paid off. We had a pretty heavy night down the road – Mahler 6 is the fairly dense outpouring of a very troubled mind. Interestingly, there were some lovely Britten songs, for starters, based on poems of Rimbaud written in pursuit of a male paramour, the basis of Dorothy Parker’s famous aside that ‘Britten was always chasing Rimbauds’!

    Happy Days.

  44. There you go (from ABC):

    “Wilson’s lawyer Ian Temby QC told the court they intend to lodge an appeal application against the cleric’s conviction today, but he did not apply for bail and will commence home detention today.”

  45. poroti @ #140 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 10:34 am

    The boss cockies of the Democrats to subverting the process of selecting a presidential candidate is a far greater attack on democracy than the leak/hack .They are meant to be upholders of democracy.

    Whatever they’re ‘meant’ to do, U.S. political people doing political influence things in a U.S. political election is not illegal.

    Not that I accept that they did any such thing, as from what I recall if you actually put the emails in context and look at when they were sent, the bulk of the pro-Hillary/anti-Sanders stuff occurred after it became clear that Sanders had no chance of taking the nomination anyways.

    Also, meh. If you want me to cast judgement on the subjective merits of the DNC emails, then kindly provide illegally obtained GOP emails from the same timeframe so that I can make a fair and informed comparison and come to an accurate conclusion about which side is actually worse than the other.

    Frankly I’d be amazed if it turns out the GOP establishment wasn’t as actively anti-Trump as the DNC establishment was anti-Sanders. Almost certainly they were even more so. 🙂

  46. ABC & SBS can be combined with 1 HR department etc.

    And close down the 3rd & 4th stations on each channel to save money.

  48. poroti @ #140 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 10:34 am

    ar

    The boss cockies of the Democrats to subverting the process of selecting a presidential candidate is a far greater attack on democracy than the leak/hack .They are meant to be upholders of democracy.

    ROFLMAO!

    The Democrats did their party a BIG favour by not allowing the Russia-manipulated Sanders to take over their party. Like Trump has taken over the Repugs, on their behalf.

  49. Turnbull Guarantees Power Bills Will Fall $550 By 2014

    Malcolm Turnbull says Australians can expect their electricity bills drop dramatically over the past four years.

    In a press conference to promote the National Energy Guarantee, Mr Turnbull said the policy would take the pressure off the cost of living in 2014. “This is about investing in our future,” he said.

    “Hard working Australian families can expect their bills to start coming down before the end of the previous term of government,” he said.

    Tony Abbott, has opposed the policy, saying 2014 seems too far away.

  50. ABC apologise to Lenore Taylor for taking down her tweet and re-instate it.

    We’ve republished this tweet. It was my call on Sunday to take it down, and that was a mistake. My apologies again to @lenoretaylor.Samuel Clark added,

    1:10
    Insiders ABC
    Verified account

    @InsidersABC
    The due diligence the Environment Department did on the Great Barrier Reef Foundation must have not involved talking to the foundation, which seems strange, @lenoretaylor says #Insiders #auspol
    5:39 PM – 13 Aug 2018

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