Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 54
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  1. @helpmeskeletor tweets

    Free speech absolutists have nothing to say about coercive non-disparagement agreements, gag orders, strict workplace social media policies, weak whistleblower laws, copyright and trademark, libel and slander but watch out if they can’t shout racial slurs….

  2. Ged Kearney tweets

    This is terrible. The indefinite detention policy of Peter Dutton is nothing but wilful neglect. We have a responsibility to provide healthcare to these kids and refugees. We have to get them off those islands as a priority. https://twitter.com/lanesainty/status/1028751504084070400

    @lainesainty tweets
    Multiple child refugees on Nauru are suffering from Resignation Syndrome – a rare and serious psychological illness, caused by trauma, where they withdraw completely from the world https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/australias-child-refugees-are-being-diagnosed-with-swedens?utm_term=.dtzrYEEYz#.bm5LeQQez

  3. ajm:

    We have such a ‘legacy’ phone number on VOIP. But if we were to move, we could take that number with us, at least within the state, I assume.

    When I queried the use of mobile phones and their use for polling on PB, given their lack of geographical data, someone replied that they could get the address from the phone owner’s billing address.

  4. Don

    Are polling companies covered in the political exemptions from the do not call list?

    IF so a big worry. Murdoch with Cambridge Analytica style data on ever voter

  5. G –

    This is terrible. The indefinite detention policy of Peter Dutton is nothing but wilful neglect.

    That Fiona Katauskas cartoon in BKs list rams it home.

  6. guytaur says: Tuesday, August 14, 2018 at 8:24 am

    Good Morning

    So much breaking news of political idiocy in the last 24 hours. Not even President Trump being unPresidential attacking the woman his chief of staff fired allegedly without his knowledge is finding it hard to dominate the headlines

    *****************************************

    Ex – NSA John Schindler :

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    If a halfwit like Omarosa was able to record at will inside the Trump WH, even in the SITROOM, just imagine what a competent HoIS could get away with.

    ( HoIS – Hostile Intelligence Service )

  7. don @ #53 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:39 am

    tatajm:

    We have such a ‘legacy’ phone number on VOIP. But if we were to move, we could take that number with us, at least within the state, I assume.

    When I queried the use of mobile phones and their use for polling on PB, given their lack of geographical data, someone replied that they could get the address from the phone owner’s billing address.

    Polling companies would not have access to that data (I hope)

  9. So even the Liberal backbench electricity committee voted in favour of pushing forward with the NEG with Abbott a lone voice of opposition in the wilderness.

  12. “Free speech absolutists have nothing to say about coercive non-disparagement agreements, gag orders, strict workplace social media policies, weak whistleblower laws, copyright and trademark, libel and slander but watch out if they can’t shout racial slurs….”

    Yup, “free speech” is only for those who have economic control. Bosses and RWNJ in Govt have to have a rapid response mechanism for shutting down criticism from the workers. 🙁

  15. ajm:
    ______
    Don:
    When I queried the use of mobile phones and their use for polling on PB, given their lack of geographical data, someone replied that they could get the address from the phone owner’s billing address.
    _____
    ajm:
    Polling companies would not have access to that data (I hope)

    _________________________

    If they don’t have access to the data, how could they meaningfully use the data they collect from mobile phones for single electorates?

  16. So even the Liberal backbench electricity committee voted in favour of pushing forward with the NEG

    Canberra is organising the ticker tape parade for Frydenberg and Turnbull as we speak.

  17. Sceptic@7:37am
    God will help you when you help yourself.
    However, if you wantonly destroy something big after repeated warnings, god will not help you.

  18. Ven says:
    Tuesday, August 14, 2018 at 8:53 am
    Sceptic@7:37am
    God will help you when you help yourself.
    However, if you wantonly destroy something big after repeated warnings, god will not help you.

    ______________

    Source?

  20. Canberra is organising the ticker tape parade for Frydenberg and Turnbull as we speak.

    From the sounds of it the media is in any case!

  24. BK on Dawn Patrollers
    Peter Hartcher penned “Saudi regime is a sickness and contagious”
    BK did he realise that just now. It is not only a sickness. It is evil. Ask the Asian countries such as India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia and all the Middle Eastern countries affected by it. And it is courted by US for a long time.

  25. For those that missed it Wendy Harmer tweeted this yesterday.

    Always disappointed in those who say Australian multiculturalism is a failure…
    It’s such lack of faith in who we are and what we can be.

    It is, I think, the very definition of being #UnAustralian.

  27. don @ #68 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:56 am

    Ven says:
    Tuesday, August 14, 2018 at 8:53 am
    Sceptic@7:37am
    God will help you when you help yourself.
    However, if you wantonly destroy something big after repeated warnings, god will not help you.

    ______________

    Source?

    If you believe, which I very much doubt, that your purpose in life is to amuse me;

    Congratulations – mission accomplished for today.
    Silver Koala stamp – 🐨

  30. Great to see the best NSW magistrate in my time pushing this issue (although I think the pin striped double breasted suit may have had its day).

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/coronial-system-failing-people-of-nsw-former-deputy-coroner-warns-20180813-p4zx68.html

    At a minimum the coroner must have a benchmark the finalisation of the inquiries within 12 months of death or conclusion of the police investigation whichever is the latest.

    Once can only imagine the impact of relived grief years after the victim’s passing.

  31. don @ #64 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:51 am

    ajm:
    ______
    Don:
    When I queried the use of mobile phones and their use for polling on PB, given their lack of geographical data, someone replied that they could get the address from the phone owner’s billing address.
    _____
    ajm:
    Polling companies would not have access to that data (I hope)

    _________________________

    If they don’t have access to the data, how could they meaningfully use the data they collect from mobile phones for single electorates?

    I think they use databases compiled by aggregators who get data from other companies who sell their customer contact data. That’s the reason you really should read the terms and conditions before signing up to anything online. Unfortunately that would severely restricted the firm’s you could deal with.

    Yes, it really is that bad.

  33. From the sounds of it the media is in any case!

    Imagine how they would react if a woman was able to negotiate actual legislation that would actually do something meaningful that even went beyond just the electricity sector and was negotiated across two political parties and a bunch of independents whilst in a minority government with a braying attack dog at their heels supported by large sections of the media and other well funded powerful vested interests.

    By golly, they would be heralding her as the messiah.

  34. Kieran Gilbert
    ‏Verified account @Kieran_Gilbert
    1h1 hour ago

    A senior Govt source says Craig Kelly, chair of the backbench energy committee, has been “all over the shop” on the NEG. Another Govt source says “the bloke (Kelly) has been looking at the NEG for a year, holding weekly meetings and briefings and still he’s not ready! Hopeless”

  35. guytaur says: Tuesday, August 14, 2018 at 9:12 am

    PR

    It was this tape I was talking about.

    Omarosa opens up about working with Trump to address Chicago violence

    ******************************************

    Trump – Omarosa – remember he only hires “the Best ” – they deserve each other

  37. PR

    Yeah. For the Resistance it’s Lordy there are tapes!!!

    I watched the interview live on NBC and Omarosa claimed Trump is also taping.

  39. guytaur @ #43 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:24 am

    Good Morning

    So much breaking news of political idiocy in the last 24 hours. Not even President Trump being unPresidential attacking the woman his chief of staff fired allegedly without his knowledge is finding it hard to dominate the headlines

    Guytaur

    Without knowing or even caring about what the fired staff member did or did not do there is something seriously wrong with security in the white house. if there is one place in the whole world where it should be impossible to tape a conversation it would be the situation room. the factthat she did do this suggests that the US security system is a basic joke.

    Two other recent stories confirm this. We worry about Russian spying but it would seem that Diane Feinstein while head of the US Intelligence Committee had a a Chinese spy as her Driver/junior assistant for 20 YEARS. Now that takes long term planning. It is also known that she and hubby did a lot of business in China and perhaps a little money came her way – hmm!!!

    The other one came via the Guardian I think but is almost breathtaking in its stupidity. It would appear that there was a spy in the US embassy in Moscow. Oh dear! However the “spy” was in fact a Russian that they had hired, and it seemed to take them YEARS to realise that she had meetings with the Russian security people. Now unless we are looking at some complex double/triple agent scenario or one where the US is delivering deliberately misleading information via a known spy, it would appear to be stupid beyond belief. I wonder who she was bonking?

    So three stories this week each suggesting that US security is well not very secure.

  40. ItzaDream @ #88 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 9:27 am

    BK @ #41 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    This is brilliant!
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1028783270207488000

    Isn’t it just.

    I notice that the spelling of Australian is *Australien* – emphasising the ALIEN I presume.

    Well spotted. Thank you. So I scrolled to the “My Police State” video and it shows the same “Australien Government”. It also points out that it is illegal to impersonate the “Australian Government”. Clever.

  41. Late Riser @ #90 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 9:32 am

    ItzaDream @ #88 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 9:27 am

    BK @ #41 Tuesday, August 14th, 2018 – 8:22 am

    This is brilliant!
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1028783270207488000

    Isn’t it just.

    I notice that the spelling of Australian is *Australien* – emphasising the ALIEN I presume.

    Well spotted. Thank you. So I scrolled to the “My Police State” video and it shows the same “Australien Government”. It also points out that it is illegal to impersonate the “Australian Government”. Clever.

    ah hah

  42. DTT

    False equivalence. Obama did not allow mobile phones into the Situation Room like previous President’s

    Trump is like no other.

  43. Ven says:
    Tuesday, August 14, 2018 at 9:10 am
    Don@8:56am
    I read somewhere. I can’t remember where. Also, it is my experience

    _____________

    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everyone has one.

  45. One would be hard pressed not to think that the GBRF’s “leveraging” will be tied to providing business to the companies of its directors and maaaates.

  47. While the CPG have been in full Get Bill mode, the local West newspaper is in full Get Mike mode.
    Nahan had the timmerity to suggest local news outlets, especially the West newspaper, has lost its political clout. The West, stung by this, came out swinging yesterday laying it on thick about what influence it still has – but curiously not mentioning its falling circulation figures.
    Today it is ‘Nahan must go’………Unfortunately for the West, it is scratching for find anyone to actually become LTO in WA. The best the can come up with is a 60 year-old recently elected member – who had the good fortune to fill Colin Barnett’s old seat. His time in parliament is measured in months. Meanwhile, other long-standing Liberals – such that remain – have been ignored.
    If anyone is in any doubt about the connection between those who run the West paper, those who think they run WA and the Liberal party only need to watch these goings on to see where this thinking comes from.
    Moral of this tale is: It does not pay to be upfront and honest with those on your side of politics as they will surely get you in the end. Nahan is likely to be gone within months – perhaps weeks.
    The Liberal Party conference, by the way, has sunk without trace.

  48. KJ:
    If you believe, which I very much doubt, that your purpose in life is to amuse me;

    Congratulations – mission accomplished for today.
    Silver Koala stamp –

    ___________

    Fair’s fair – you give me and others much enjoyment!

    And speaking of grass, which we weren’t – I last mowed the paddock three months ago – and I can still see the marks of the tyres of the ride-on, on the brown but apparently freshly cut stubble.

    Not even the weeds are growing. This is exceptional.

    #droughtonPB

  49. This most recent “securty legislatin will be given the green light by Labor.

    Absolute utter FOOLS. Just about every tool needed to impose a totalitarian state in now in place waved along by Labor too thick to realise the dangers.

    So when Peter Dutton is in charge each and every pone of us will be at risk of fines, imprisonment or subtle damage to careers or reputation. They will come for me first bt only a few months later for the rest of you. Free speech will soon be a thing of the past. sall our communications will soon be monitored.
    Watch this space, recall my words and weep:

    1. Of course at first they will claim it is to reduce ‘tewwowism” and t
    2. Then suspected violence or drugs or sex abuse, – They will target the right wing nutters first because they know that then all of the “progessives” will give it the OK
    3. But eventually it will simply be for being a member of the Greens or some radical party..
    4. about 6 months after arresting all the Greens they will come for the ALP members other that the total patsies
    5. Then they will come for the rest of you who are not absolutely pro Herr Dutton
    6. They will even come for the nice moderates such as David WH

    It is now too late. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance. We did not pay the price.

  50. There’s an article on the SMH that says the day of the Influencer is dead.

    Not only had I not heard of any of the Influencers mentioned, but I didn’t know what an Influencer was anyway, until I like read the article.

    They appear like to be people who like use the word “like” multiple times in like every sentence. They have collagen-pumped lips, Brazilian butts, funny hair-dos and like millions of like followers on Instagram (whatever Instagram is).

    Am I like square?

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