The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.
The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).
Shorten also went to some length to stress that being part of the catholic education system does not necessarily mean you are privileged. I have to admit that even though we aren’t catholics we sent our children to a small systemic catholic primary because it offered a much more friendly environment than the local public. It cost about $200 a term and was pretty diverse socially.
Hi Darn I haven’t said who I voted for but still happy to take the flack 🙂
I can confirm I didn’t put LNP last. There are a few in the 11 who I would even put below Abbott.
boomy
I used to laugh my head of watching parts of In Living Color. It was the age.
According to Steve Price Labor is running bill boards around Longman saying that the Liberals are planning to ‘carve up Medicare’ (not sure what that means exactly but that’s what he said). While complaining bitterly about it and calling it a dirty tactic both he and Bolt said they thought it would be effective.
Does anyone here have any information on that?
Sprocket,
Quite a hill to die on, defending bob Carr based on tort law reform. Was the start of a rapid decline in Rights for injured people.
His was the govt which constantly preached the virtue of a surplus while the state’s infrastructure ran down enormously. He was by no means the worst NSW premier in my time, but he was hardly brilliant.
I went to a Catholic school too.
Taught me grammar and all sorts of stuff. I reckon Ben Chifley and John Curtin would have sorted these blokes. They were principled. They knew about honour and loyalty. It’s all over now. No-one cares.
Haven’t seen any Darn. Mostly it has been about health funding.
Presumably though, if your local Catholic school isn’t state funded and is poor, its your choice as a parent to send your kids to a better funded state school?
How do you think Labor’s claim that the Liberals have cut funding to the local hospital is going David? Is it resonating at all up there?
I’m sure it’s had some effect Darn.
Mind you I do think it has been overdone somewhat. It’s never, or seldom, about a single issue.
It’s good to have you back on board David. Can we look forward to your company regularly for a while now or are you planning flit off again soon?
Cutting hospitals is just giving attention to priorities, it is interesting but it seems to me the government has gone a bit silent on tax cuts, instead Turnbull wants to turn it into to a personality contest.
mikehilliard @ #1151 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 8:17 pm
Religion infesting politics. Never a good idea.
I’ll be around for a while but then heading west on another road trip.
Davidwh @ #1152 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 8:19 pm
Well Jim Saleam would be one, guaranteed, and that slippery, sleazy Tradie PHON candidate, another.
One of my kids is going to head out on his first road trip. He’s buying a motor bike and a tent. That’s it for him. 🙂
Liberal internal polling on Braddon given to Murdoch’s Oz – would this be the same polling given to Ch 7 (as mentioned in an earlier comment)?
What precision in the results: 51.07 to 48.93 PP advantage to the Liberals, from a poll of exactly 500 people!
I perused a free copy of the Daily Telecrap in a cafe at lunchtime today. They are attacking Labor on multiple fronts. It also appears that Emma Hussar has attained ’embattled’ status. But the front page was dominated by a campaign against ‘political correctness’, in which they link multiple events and trends, including the ban on plastic bags by big supermarket chains and an alleged ban by Universities on using ‘mankind’, ‘he’ and ‘she’. It’s billed as an ‘exclusive’, probably not a drop from a Minister’s office but in this case just some crap they made up.
I find it slightly amusing that those who control the Federal and NSW Governments and all the major media in the country except the ABC (which they’ve bullied into submission) feel silenced. Their views, priorities and prejudices are bellowed across the nation in print and broadcast. They even control the language (‘illegals’ anyone? Religious ‘freedoms’? – conservative Christians only need apply).
Meanwhile, the Right have their own version of political correctness. The Author of this Washington Post article published in the wake of Trump’s unexpected win calls it ‘Patriotic Correctness’. It was written in an American context but much of it applies here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/07/the-right-has-its-own-version-of-political-correctness-its-just-as-stifling/?utm_term=.9dec42f7d232
Fantastic to see the Swans extend Aliir Aliiir’s contract by 3 years. I’m sure ‘Swans fan’ Malcolm Turnbull will be congratulating him, along with his Home Affairs Minister, who will undoubtedly celebrate this South Sudanese success story.
A nice interview with Aliir on the link.
‘Swans defender Aliir Aliir has committed to Sydney, signing a three-year contract extension that will tie him to the Club until at least the end of 2021.
Swans Head of Football, Tom Harley, says the Club’s excited to have the key defender commit to Sydney.
“We are very pleased to announce Aliir’s contract extension for a further three years,” Harley said.
“Aliir has a great story to tell and we see his footy as an exciting next chapter in his life.
“Since 2016, Aliir has had to overcome some injury challenges but we have seen in the past couple of weeks what he is capable of.
“Aliir is a popular clubman who we see playing an integral role for our club in the future.”
http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2018-07-24/aliir-aliir-signs-on
GG
Napthine is not forgotten
In a last minute panic reaction to polling showing a “do nothing” government would be defeated after 1 term, Napthine and his storm troopers happened on the so called East/West Link taking traffic down the full distance of the Eastern Freeway (along with traffic entering and exiting the CBD) then thru seats the Liberals saw as Labor/Green contested seats so also playing politics
Anyway Contracts were signed immediately before the election – Labor opposing the project and Napthine saying the election was a referendum on the project – assisted by Abbott
Napthine lost the referendum
Then the poison chalice side letters came to light – these letters unknown to the Public Service
And the Liberals still dine out on their tactics of that time and the cost to Victorian’s of those side letters
Yes, we remember Napthine and his too clever by half storm troopers
There should be a Class Action against all of them on behalf of all Victorians
Akin to the withdrawal of Pairs
These people do not change their spots
And now we have Bastiaan and Sukkar pulling the chain
He surely must mean like this:
“What precision in the results: 51.07 to 48.93 PP advantage to the Liberals, from a poll of exactly 500 people!”
Given that the margin of error is over 4%, the two decimal places are redundant. Assuming that the poll was conducted scientifically on a sample selected to be representative, Labor’s 2PP is between 45 and 53.
“Then the poison chalice side letters came to light – these letters unknown to the Public Service”
I never understood why Labor didn’t pass special legislation to nullify those letters and let the contractors sue them for the return of their losses / sunk costs – which might have been a few tens of millions, given that not a sod had been turned. The other thing they should have done was call a Royal Commission.
What poison pills will Malcolm leave behind?
Steve777 @ #1174 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 9:28 pm
Dutton & Abbott.
@Steve777
I am wondering why the Liberal Party ‘leaked’ this internal polling to the media?
Anyway if the Liberals can pull off the feat of winning both Braddon and Longman. That is going to help Malcolm Turnbull quite a lot, especially against the constant White-anting of the government which Tony Abbott has been doing.
They are too numerous to mention, but the taxpayer funded wasteland of the NBN for one. Not reducing our GHGEs for another. The structural deficit in our economy that his govt added to yet another. Need I go on?
Confessions @ #1172 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 9:21 pm
A bit like that!
Tristo @ #1176 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 9:31 pm
To try and drive people away from voting for the Independent guy whose preferences will go to Labor, I’d say.
bill on catholic ed
he has certainly lost the plot
cannot articulate anything deep on this subject, along with party as whole
catholic ed (and church schools in general) are destroying society
“It also appears that Emma Hussar has attained ’embattled’ status.”
Next step is ‘besieged’.
C@t:
LOL
Chris O’Brien
Verified account @COBrienBris
11h11 hours ago
#qldpol Premier @AnnastaciaMP announces $250 000 a year to expand Foodbank’s school breakfast program to another 70 schools. Many children coming to school without breakfast. @abcnews
I’ve just been watching a Netflix documentary on how, why and when the Town Clerk of Dixon County, Michigan, embezzled $56 million from her employer over a period of 20 years or so.
She used the money to raise prize-winning quarter horses.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rita_Crundwell
It was the usual technique: fake invoices, dodgy bank accounts and blind trust in the lady embezzler by generations of mayors and local councillors.
But one of the phoney invoices struck me. It was for demolition work on a toll booth positioned on the local section of the US Interstate. $450,000 to be precise.
It all went onto the lady’s phoney account, of course, and ended up literally as horse shit and a cheap plastic trophy on a mantlepiece somewhere.
But somewhere else another government, to whit the NSW government of Gladys Berejiklian, managed to spend, not $450,000 on the demolition of toll booths, but $SIXTY MILLION. Yes, the Southern Toll Booths of the Sydney Harbour Bridge have been retired, slashing a dramatic 5 seconds off the car trip from Kirribilli to Circular Quay.
When we do “Civic Pride” on NSW, we really do go the whole hog.
Lucky there’s nothing dodgy going on in our glorious state.
I do hope that people aren’t putting too much hope and faith in Albanese, because on the economy ( the only measure that matters) he is a right winger. Albanese may technically still be a member of the NSW left, but he is a self confessed neo liberal.
We have been told by PB’s resident fraud that Democrat=Republican in Trump’s America. This transparent falsehood hardly needs be contested, this summary of the standing of Kamala Harris published at 538 will help dispel the puerile claims of the Putinists.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-rise-of-kamala-harris-tells-us-about-the-democratic-party/
Tweets
David Marler
@Qldaah
40s41 seconds ago
#LongmanVotes Pauline Hanson is on a family cruise off Belfast just days out from the crucial Longman by-election and it’s helping her avoid some potentially embarrassing questions about Matthew Stephen & Sean Black #qldpol #auspol
For what it’s worth, Atkins in the CM today on Longman:
He claims a greater probably of a Liberal win than a Labor win but hedges his bets. He also claims a PHON vote of at least 20% as helping the Liberal tally but doesn’t mention this week’s PHON problems. He does say that Shorten will remain where he is regardless of the result.
https://www.outline.com/qTrED6
So it’s true then.
Re: Sprocket @ 6:15pm –
Here. Here!
The Carr Governemnt was a very very good government for the first two terms. Bob got bored after 2003. Iemma did his best to reboot the government, but after the 2008 special conference everybody pretty much lost their shit, although Nathan and Kristina tried their best. As we know some ingrates even started to steal the state silverware on their way out office. Including friends on mine. Alas.
It’s a shame that most people assign the bullshit of 2008-11 as being representative of the whole period of Labor in power between 1995-2011. It’s simply not right.
citizen @ #1188 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 10:08 pm
Nope. 15% is the high water mark. Possibly more like 12% after factoring in the latest round of scandals.
Perhaps she is sussing out some opportunities in the UK – a while ago she was talking about moving to the UK. Currently she is demonstrating an unwillingness to stay and face the music over the scandals mentioned in the tweet. Could she be thinking of leaving Australia for good, given all the defections from PHON and the series of scandals associated with the party?
1000kms per hour plus on the return flight to Sydney
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
C@tmomma @ #1178 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 6:51 pm
I don’t understand this logic.
If someone voting for an independent, preferencing Labor decides not to vote for the independent, then surely their vote would move to their next preference and they would ultimately still preference or vote for Labor.
shellbell @ #1192 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 7:23 pm
It’s amazing the difference in flight times travelling west-east to travelling east-west.
Pick up the jet stream on the way back, as you seem to have and it’s even more pronounced. 🙂
For what it’s worth, betting on Braddon and Longman tonight – for Mayo, Perth and Fremantle you can “put away your glasses” as one old race caller used to say.
Braddon
Ladbrokes Labor 1.67 Liberal 2.10
Sportsbet Labor 1.50 Liberal 2.40
Centrebet Labor 1.67 Liberal 2.15
William Hill Labor 1.67 Liberal 2.15
Longman
Ladbrokes Liberal 1.57 Labor 2.25
Sportsbet Liberal 1.65 Labor 2.20
Centrebet Liberal 1.70 Labor 2.10
William Hill Liberal 1.70 Liberal 2.10
But I want to live in Wayne’s World. It’s not fair.
On a personal note ANZ being Page 1 attracts me as does the reason
ANZ have history
I was interrogated over false allegations of sexual abuse of one of my children and over false allegations that I had defrauded ANZ Banking Group Limited – courtesy of those allegations being made to the bank by my former wife
It caused me great distress and was the catalyst for my departure from the work place
The outcome was not only that I was able to become a full time parent to my children but that I was successful in a County Court action against ANZ
So whatever negative publicity ANZ Banking Group Limited are receiving they deserve every bit of it – and more
I’ve travelled through this area which is basically a wide river valley between the Bolavan Plateau, where the dam is, and mountains that run north-south along the border with Vietnam.
Very few road options, so the people would have had little chance of out running the flood, especially with it happening at 8 in the evening.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/24/laos-dam-collapse-hundreds-missing