Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I’m sure Burgey and his fellow PB armchair whingers have done as much as this for the nation..

    conservation

    Nature conservation was a priority for the government and for Carr personally. Carr moved to ban canal estates because of their impact on river systems, and when in office he implemented a 1995 election pledge to prevent logging in parts of southeastern NSW by creating the South East Forest National Park along NSW’s coastal range from Batemans Bay to the Victorian border.

    Carr’s election policies had also included commitments to protect 90,000 hectares (220,000 acres) of old-growth forest and wilderness areas through a string of new national parks. The promise was exceeded with gazettal of 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres) between 1995 and 2005. The initiative was supported by a A$6 million forestry restructuring package to build a modern mill and provide a 20-year guarantee of alternative timber.

    Following the 1999 victory, Carr’s government declared 100 new national parks between Nowra and the Bega Valley. Carr claimed in 2009 that: “rural towns did not ‘die’ as a result of these conservation measures. The old timber towns now boast communities with a strong economic base, world-class national parks on their doorstep and thriving nature-based tourism”.[15] In its first term, the government banned the removal of old-growth vegetation from farmlands and introduced pricing for rural water and an environmental allocation to the state’s river systems. In June 2001 jet skis were banned from Sydney Harbour. Carr said: “You wouldn’t allow motor bikes in the Botanic Gardens”.[16]

    The curbs on the clearing of nature vegetation were mounted as a serious anti-greenhouse gas measure, helping Australia achieve its Kyoto targets. In addition, in January 2003 the Carr government launched the world’s first greenhouse gas trading scheme, the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scheme, which set a limit on carbon emissions by electricity retailers. It was listed by the World Bank as the world’s first carbon trading scheme.

    In 2003 Carr launched the building sustainability index (BASIX) which mandated reductions in energy and water use of up to 40 percent in every new dwelling built after July 2004.[17] Regarding environmental and education improvements, Carr noted in his diary for 21 April 1997: “Yesterday our school reforms were announced. All the ideas I’d formulated in Opposition. Four-unit English for the HSC. Compulsory exams at the end of Year 10. Soft options gone … I mark the package with forestry. I could leave politics and be satisfied with my achievements.”[18]

    Tort reform
    During its second term (1999-2003) the Carr government embarked on tort law reform, in a manner that earned Carr a description from Forbes magazine as a “dragon slayer”.[19] In 1999, with the cost of many forms of injury insurance increasing, Carr gave his Minister John Della Bosca the task of carrying reforms out. As a consequence, procedures which Carr called “legal rorts” were in many cases stripped from the system. The average price of a green slip (compulsory third party motor accident insurance) was to drop $150 on 1999 prices.[citation needed] Carr argued that this created what he called: “the most comprehensive tort reform that any government has developed … at the expense of the plaintiff lawyers who had fed on a culture of rorts and rip-offs”.[20] Carr noted in his diary:[21] “It’s not worth being Premier unless you can take privileges off the undeserving.”

    However the fact that the law effectively made it impossible to claim for any injury worth less than around $60,000 was criticised by New South Wales Chief Justice James Spigelman and others. Spigelman argued that it effectively “eliminates small claims” entirely, giving “people the right to be negligent and injure someone up to a given level before they become liable”.[22] Spigelman said:

    The introduction of a requirement that a person be subject to 15 percent of whole of body impairment—a percentage that is lower in some states—before being able to recover general damages has been the subject of controversy. It does mean that some people who are quite seriously injured are not able to sue at all. More than any other factor I envisage this restriction will be seen as much too restrictive.[23]

    Drug laws
    As a result of a 1999 drug summit the Carr cabinet introduced Australia’s first medically supervised injecting room for heroin users, located in King’s Cross. The government argued it was a harm minimisation measure to keep drug users alive until they make the decision to get off drugs. Other reforms included the introduction of drug courts and a voluntary diversion program that allows magistrates to refer offenders to treatment rather than impose prison sentences.[20]

    Retired Premier Neville Wran described Carr as “the very model of a modern Labor premier, an articulate and powerful public performer who identified himself with the contemporary policy issues of education and the environment.” Wran noted that the Carr model became a template for other Australian Labor Party leaders, with some regarding him as a mentor.[28]

    After Carr the NSW government was able to claim that while in 1994 there were 328 national parks covering four million hectares of NSW, Carr’s policies increased this to 770 national parks covering 6.6 million hectares by 2006. Wilderness protection was expanded: there were 650,000 hectares (1,600,000 acres) in 1994, by 2006 nearly two million hectares.

    The North Side Sewage Tunnel, funded by the government in its first term, stopped more than 20 billion litres of sewage reaching Sydney Harbour and saw whales and dolphins return to it. The government also built pollution traps to capture litter and rubbish that would have otherwise been flushed with storm water onto Sydney beaches. In 1994, before the election of the government, 430 kilograms (950 lb) of waste was being generated by every Sydney resident each year, and only 60 kilograms (130 lb) being recycled. Reforms to the waste industry saw a 28 percent reduction to 310 kilograms (680 lb) per person and a 65 percent increase in recycling to 102 kilograms (225 lb) per person.[29]

    He received credit for the increase in the number and size of the state’s national parks,[12] while criticism was made about rail transport which recorded a period of poor on-time running and a damaging industrial dispute in 2004.[12]

    The Carr government is also known for its considerable infrastructure contribution. Total State Sector Real Growth from 1995 to 2005 was 41%.

    Infrastructure projects included the Eastern Distributor, M5 East, three bus expressways costing $300 million in Western Sydney, Lane Cove Tunnel, Cross City Tunnel, the Epping to Chatswood railway line, the start on the South West Rail Link and the North West Rail Link and the M7 Westlink which at 42 kilometers is the longest urban road in Australia and slashed travel times in Western Sydney by one hour.

  2. Thanks. She has done the right thing in referring those threats of violence to the AFP.
    ___
    And you can bet your sweet bippy the threats weren’t from a Sudanese gang!

  3. Just on Emma Husar, one of her staffers was the son of ex-copper, ex-NSW Minister Peter Anderson. The father was one of the complainants.

  4. I don’t get the Carter Page heel under the bed…

    Gawd I just love David Rowe’s cartoons, always so much to see!

  5. Greensborough Growler @ #1077 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:25 pm

    Sohar @ #1075 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    C@t,
    “Former Premier of Victoria, Denis Napthine, had 204 Advisers!!! At a cost of $9.4 Million to the Victorian taxpayer!”
    Clearly that wasn’t enough.

    Works out to $46k per person. Obviously, he got what he paid for.

    Some were on over $330k/year and others came on just for the election campaign. So there would have been a variety of pay rates.

  6. Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon from the ALP and will go on to win the next election by a landslide and bill shorten leader is finished and Anthony Albanese will not be the answer because he only will open the gates for people smugglers and we will see death at see again and also put in to debt

  7. Samantha Maiden is being resurrected

    Tune into @theprojecttv tonight I’m delighted to be talking all things politics and the threats of violence @emmahusarmp has received

  8. C@tmomma @ #1108 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 6:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1077 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:25 pm

    Sohar @ #1075 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    C@t,
    “Former Premier of Victoria, Denis Napthine, had 204 Advisers!!! At a cost of $9.4 Million to the Victorian taxpayer!”
    Clearly that wasn’t enough.

    Works out to $46k per person. Obviously, he got what he paid for.

    Some were on over $330k/year and others came on just for the election campaign. So there would have been a variety of pay rates.

    it’s a beat up!

  9. Greensborough Growler @ #1113 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1108 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 6:35 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1077 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:25 pm

    Sohar @ #1075 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    C@t,
    “Former Premier of Victoria, Denis Napthine, had 204 Advisers!!! At a cost of $9.4 Million to the Victorian taxpayer!”
    Clearly that wasn’t enough.

    Works out to $46k per person. Obviously, he got what he paid for.

    Some were on over $330k/year and others came on just for the election campaign. So there would have been a variety of pay rates.

    it’s a beat up!

    No, a freedom of information request by Channel 7, or whatever you call it down there, accessed the pay sheets for Napthine.

  10. Confessions

    Probably when Trump called him ‘little rocket man’. There are a couple of rockets above Kim. Not sure why he has both his hands in the air like ‘surrender’/

  11. nath @ #1127 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 7:17 pm

    Napthine was only Premier because the previous holder of the position died the day he was elected.

    Horseshit!

    Napthine took over from Ted Baillieu who wasn’t up to the job.

    The Member for East Frankston died on the day of the election. His name was Peter McLellan. it was September 18, 1999.

  12. The only factor Kevin missed is that we Longmanites are a weird mob who could do anything. Other than that it was a very good summary.

  13. Anyone here who thinks Saturday isn’t going to be a disaster for Labor just doesn’t have a clue, is on drugs or has coke bottle rose coloured glasses on.
    It isn’t a crime to accept that Labor is being royally shafted by the media and by decades old perceptions which always make it harder for the ALP to cut through.

    There I said it.
    Call me names I couldn’t care less but on Sunday for feck sake just accept the reality of Labor’s tenuous position in the Australian political firmament…..having said that I can’t believe and never will understand why Labor is not the natural party of government in this f*cked little sh#t of a country…

  14. Davidwh

    Hello, earlier you slipped in a comment about your previous ‘troll status’. Was that a 🙂 or were you really labelled as such ? Cannot remember anything you said back in the day which would attract that tag. But then there are some sensitive souls about from both sides of the aisle 😆

  15. poroti @ #1136 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 7:32 pm

    Davidwh

    Hello, earlier you slipped in a comment about your previous ‘troll status’. Was that a 🙂 or were you really labelled as such ? Cannot remember anything you said back in the day which would attract that tag. But then there are some sensitive souls about from both sides of the aisle 😆

    DTT has said a few outrageous things in her time!

  16. Hi Poroti we are going back to the Gillard era when I had the gall to criticize some of her decisions and actions. But it was never too serious and it never bothered me. It’s more like a rite of passage.

  17. Davidwh

    I had the gall to criticize some of her decisions

    You definitely pissed on the third rail there 😀 Fortunately the Bludger Lounge usually cuts some slack for those ‘North of the Tweed’ 🙂

  18. boomy

    That Labor will honour it’s commitments to finance education in the catholic sector rather than just make bold promises.

  19. Davidwh says:
    Tuesday, July 24, 2018 at 7:26 pm
    The only factor Kevin missed is that we Longmanites are a weird mob who could do anything. Other than that it was a very good summary.

    If the Liberals win by one vote we’ll be holding you responsible David.

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