Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 22 of 55
1 … 21 22 23 … 55

  4. Kayjay,

    I’m still sitting at my desk laughing about Bob Carr’s involvement. The People’s Champion, the Hero of the Everyday Working Man.

    Same for all of them.

  6. Sky is giving the Longman ON candidate a real bucketing. This is the channel that ON supporters would likely watch/pay attention to, methinks

  8. Given that Longman is in Queensland, maybe the ON candidate Matthew Stephen will benefit from the debt allegations. These days debt and deception are fair dinkum Aussie values.

  10. “The pokies explosion in NSW has destroyed Bob’s reputation. Oh, and who can forget that he stuck his snout straight in to the Macquarie Bank trough after being Premier.”
    Has there ever been an honest NSW Premier? Serious question.

  11. Player one@4:31pm
    “The Pass mark for Turnbull is one less”
    None of the seats are LNP seats. Hence, Technically his pass mark is 0-1= -1, which is very high. 🙂

  12. Matthw Stephen is saying that everyone he owes money to he’s paid in full.

    You see, because it’s the Irish labourer who owes them the money! 😉

  14. Sohar @ #1058 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:06 pm

    “The pokies explosion in NSW has destroyed Bob’s reputation. Oh, and who can forget that he stuck his snout straight in to the Macquarie Bank trough after being Premier.”
    Has there ever been an honest NSW Premier? Serious question.

    Nathan Rees.

    But he suffered from the other problem. Getting caught with his pants down with someone who wasn’t his wife. :\

  15. PTMD,
    Winter is not a good time of year for old people.
    They do have the footy on in hospital though. That will make her feel better. 🙂

  17. Anton@4:40pm
    About 11 years, I saw Bob in a Gym on Hunter/George st during lunch time, which was far away from Macquarie Bank.

  20. What’s the pass mark for Shorten

    If I were marking; a pass is holding Longman. He needs to show he can do well in QLD and get PHON preferences.

    Losing both Longman and Braddon by small margins is a terminating pass.

    If he loses Longman by a bees phallus – he may still survive.

  21. Former Premier of Victoria, Denis Napthine, had 204 Advisers!!! At a cost of $9.4 Million to the Victorian taxpayer!

  23. Next time someone says that Corporate Tax Cuts will increase wages, show them this:


    Bloomberg
    @business
    Wages were supposed to rise after Trump’s tax cuts. Instead, they’ve fallen https://bloom.bg/2Lb4dBo via @bopinion

    This is a reputable source.

  24. jenauthor @ #1072 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    GG

    I said it would be the channel for ON supporters … I’d add, esp after 7pm!

    ON supporters are predominantly working class battlers with a grievance against elites. They are less well educated and have jobs that would not allow themthe discretionary income to purchase a Fox subscription.

  25. C@t,
    “Former Premier of Victoria, Denis Napthine, had 204 Advisers!!! At a cost of $9.4 Million to the Victorian taxpayer!”
    Clearly that wasn’t enough.

  26. GG

    I don’t think so – I think they’d have it for the sport (car smash ‘em racing and the like)

    Saves them going anywhere … can sit on the couch and eat sugary snacks

  28. jenauthor @ #1076 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:25 pm

    GG

    I don’t think so – I think they’d have it for the sport (car smash ‘em racing and the like)

    Saves them going anywhere … can sit on the couch and eat sugary snacks

    That probably says more about you than them.

    Car racing is on FTA as is the footy and cricket.

    Sky makes their money through reach on the internet by people like you and I linking their posts. If you want to defeat Murdoch don’t link his stuff.

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #1074 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    jenauthor @ #1072 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    GG

    I said it would be the channel for ON supporters … I’d add, esp after 7pm!

    ON supporters are predominantly working class battlers with a grievance against elites. They are less well educated and have jobs that would not allow themthe discretionary income to purchase a Fox subscription.

    Bullshit. PHONies are GReedy Arseholes and Spivs Party sympathisers who don’t have sufficient cash to buy GRASPer membership. They are scum.

  34. rhwombat @ #1079 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:33 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #1074 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    jenauthor @ #1072 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    GG

    I said it would be the channel for ON supporters … I’d add, esp after 7pm!

    ON supporters are predominantly working class battlers with a grievance against elites. They are less well educated and have jobs that would not allow themthe discretionary income to purchase a Fox subscription.

    Bullshit. PHONies are GReedy Arseholes and Spivs Party sympathisers who don’t have sufficient cash to buy GRASPer membership. They are scum.

    At least they don’t barrack for Collingwood.

    They’ll get Labor over the line on Saturday and that’s OK by me.

  38. jenauthor says:
    Tuesday, July 24, 2018 at 3:42 pm
    The other thing I do not understand with all this discussion about Albo is why in god’s green earth would ANY member of the parliamentary party endanger the stability for personal reasons prior to an election … they have seen the repercussions of that and they surely know if they are ever going to make a move, it would need to be AFTER ALP gains the treasury benches because doing so before guarantees electoral loss.

    Don’t be conned by the media’s desperation for blood. Labor could not be THAT stupid.

    Agree with you entirely Jen. But there are some people here who are obviously stupid enough to think they would.

  44. It seems the news has unleashed death threats against Husar.

    Shame media kept a lid on Joyce … but then again LNP always get special dispensation

  48. jenauthor:

    That’s terrible re death threats if true.

    Honestly, whatever happened to responsible journalism in this country!!

Comments Page 22 of 55
1 … 21 22 23 … 55

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *