BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor after a good result for them in this week’s Ipsos poll, both on primary votes and respondent-allocated preferences.

The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.

As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!

Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,512 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Dan Gulberry @ #2115 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 8:48 pm

    Last night Greensborough Growler raised an issue about Chris Uhlmann trying to flog a TV series to Netflix.

    He’s been successful. .

    His specialty was always fiction.

  2. Rick Morton

    Abbott on Alan Jones about renewable energy, actual quote: “I don’t think our children will thank us if we damage their future in order to make the world a bit colder for them.”

  3. With Shorten it’s: he’s lucky to be there, and looking for any sign to declare his potential downfall.
    With Turnbull/Abbott it’s: poor fellow has had a lot of bad luck, and looking for any sign to declare his reset.

    With Abbot it’s: best opposition leader evah.
    With Shorten it’s: why isn’t he bipartisan, why so combative, why isn’t he just going along with what the Liberals want, isn’t it bad strategy/tactics to oppose them? (since when did you ever hear anyone demanding the Coalition go along with any of Labor’s policies? – we got ADMIRATION for how politically effective they were at blocking and dismantling them).

    With Labor, all problems in government can be sheeted home to them.
    With the Coalition, it’s someone else or maybe the system/all politicians are dysfunctional/to blame (they’re masters at centralising power while decentralising responsibility).

  4. I am no defence expert nor do I object to building a strong defence but something seems out of whack with the cost of these purchases – and the time lines.

    With a huge coastline, I just do not see what use 9 frigates are. 99 perhaps but 9 expensive boats which will never be where you need them to be when they are needed!!!

    Also in a time of real crisis we need to ramp up the build quickly. I read somewhere that what won the Pacific war in WWII was the US capacity to turn out a new ship in a month, so even if they were not suburb quality that were quick and did the job. China most certainly has that capacity.

    I support us doing our OWN sesign and a quick build, but I rather think smaller boats with some add ons would be the better way to go. 10 smaller versus 1 bigger more modern. Thing is the more expensive the boat the more things that can go wrong.

  5. I don’t think it’s controversial to say that when large creditors stop buying and start start dumping someone’s debt, it’s a bad sign for future borrowing: A de facto reduction in the borrower’s credit rating.
    https://www.opednews.com/articles/Is-the-US-National-Debt-Fi-by-Thomas-Knapp-National-Debt-180628-745.html
    The US was not the only nation to print lots and lots of money and increase its national debt – will the dominoes start to fall?

  6. Dubbs, thanks for the information on the Moscow metro.

    I’ve never visited Moscow but have seen photos of the magnificent metro stations. You mentioned that they were constructed to double as nuclear shelters.

    The Seoul metro is also easy for a foreigner to use, with bilingual signage. It’s also evident that some stations have been designed as air raid shelters given that Seoul is only about 50km from the DMZ.

    The Stockholm metro has some magnificent underground stations featuring bare rock faces and lighting effects.

  7. A couple of decades ago, a friend of mine was planning to get pregnant, so she went into her local private health insurer…..

    Nice story. Nice of the insurer to be so honest.

    Mrs Katich and I went through 2 births since 2010 and both were through the midwifery clinic at W&C. All public. The service included home visits before, during! (we just made it) and after birth. Extremely satisfied with the service. If we had complications, the best maternity ward in the state was just down the hall.

    Our friends like to point out that we didnt get a room at the Hilton as part of the service (like they did) – which is when I ask them how much their insurance is per month.

  8. Also, why should Labor declare they’re trying to work with everyone up front? That’s BAD strategy. The Coalition don’t. They talk about rewards for groups they like, and punishments for groups they don’t like, all the time without anyone batting an eyelid about how unsubtly they manage who they include and exclude. They set up systems of patronage specifically for this purpose.

    All it takes is one group to decide they’re not going to work with Labor, and the fault will be Labor’s for not meeting their position. Declaring Labor will work with everyone is to set a standard that’s impossible for Labor to meet if even just one group decides it’s in their interests that Labor appear not to be able to work with them/others.

    Labor would be better to say we will reach out to others, and if they also reach back, then there will be collaboration. Don’t make yourself responsible for the actions of others that you have no control over and who frequently find it to their advantage to work against you.

  9. I notice that the Libs can find billions & billions for defence, but always have to cut & cut when it comes to health, NBN, NDIS, education, infrastructure & social support programmes.

  10. A great article —

    ‘“I felt like she was saying it’s alright for women to speak up but not men. I didn’t like it. I had my back up and I was going in defensive.”

    By week four, he apologised to her. “I don’t know how she puts up with it week after week, but she changed my life. I don’t need to drink all the time now, and my kids aren’t afraid of me anymore. I’m so grateful.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/my-kids-aren-t-afraid-of-me-anymore-20180628-p4zofk.html

    Note: the guy quoted was never physically violent.

  11. Observer@7:10am
    Beat up ofcourse. As Bolt commented, MSM got bored saying that ALP is leading LNP for last 34 newspoll polls and over 80 essential polls. So MSM turned their attention on LNP instructions to beat up ALP leadership tensions.

  12. I would add that an 90yo old blue ribbon liberal chap I know who always had private health insurance needed urgent medical attention on a weekend recently. The family rang around and all the private hospitals refused him. He ended up at nRAH which had him and the family in hysterics as they expected to be outside waiting for many hours.

    He was seen to immediately, admitted, a room to himself, tested and problem discovered (despite having a range of tests previously through GP and private clinics). It didnt help him in the end as it was not treatable, but at least after all those years he got seen to and dealt with respect.

  13. SK

    Our favorite ‘snigger snigger’ story along these lines is about one of my sister’s friends.

    She signed up for health insurance before her pregnancy because she wanted her own doctor – which was code for “I don’t like Asians.”

    Come the day, her ‘own doctor’ was on leave…..

  14. Dubbs I also liked the Moscow metro. I was there in the early 90s.
    The stations are magnificent.
    Rather than timetables each platform had a timer that counted up in seconds from zero every time a train left. It never got above 120.

  15. Good Morning

    I don’t know about anyone else but for me I don’t like uncapped spending on defence. To me it just puts the opportunity for waste of money.

    As for the LNP’s plan for Australia to become an exporter then it helps to own the company doing the manufacturing here and not award contracts to overseas entities.

    I thought the drone buy was a good decision. Of course it would be better if we manufactured our own. Its not like Australia does not have the capability.

  16. zoomster, thankfully in our cases we didnt see any doctors at any stage. But it was good to know the best doctors were close.

    As for seeing your own doctor… I find with many procedures in public hospitals you do get your own doctor. You just ask the GP to recommend a specialist that does a lot of work at your public hospital of choice. My sample is small tho.

  17. Dubbs I also liked the Moscow metro.

    I recall the Tashkent metro was good too. Although the station police were a tad overbearing.

  18. I don’t know if it was the case with the company tax cuts announcement, but does anyone else get the impression that every now and then Shorten sort of tests the polling waters by making a big policy announcement which grabs a lot of attention? If I recall, he did it with the negative gearing thing and also with the dividend imputation stuff. It’s like he occasionally puts these things out there at certain points in the polling cycle to effectively test the strength or otherwise of the lead Labor has been enjoying for so long.

    I’m probably reading too much into it, but I get the feeling they’ve done it with a few policies over the past couple of years.

  19. zoomster @ #64 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:07 am

    A great article —

    ‘“I felt like she was saying it’s alright for women to speak up but not men. I didn’t like it. I had my back up and I was going in defensive.”

    By week four, he apologised to her. “I don’t know how she puts up with it week after week, but she changed my life. I don’t need to drink all the time now, and my kids aren’t afraid of me anymore. I’m so grateful.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/my-kids-aren-t-afraid-of-me-anymore-20180628-p4zofk.html

    Note: the guy quoted was never physically violent.

    Thanks for that zoomster. A good reminder that not all violence towards women and children is physical.

  20. Confessions@7:24am
    “Mass Shooting is US”
    The politicians and government officials kept repeating that US mantra “Thoughts and prayers”.
    Appalling .

  21. Burgey

    Well spotted. I think thats what Mr Shorten is doing as well.

    In fact I would be worried if he and the Labor team were not. Its how you roll out a big policy agenda

    All the leadership propaganda tells me Turnbull and his team including the likes of Lenton Crosby Textor can’t work out what to do about it. So have just fallen back on propaganda.

  22. There seems to be a version of the hunger games playing out at Fairfax. People like Kenny, Crowe and Bagshaw are competing to speculate about about what fate might befall Shorten and Labor. Perhaps the management has told them “the person with the lowest number of readership clicks” will be booted off the island.

    While Gittens recently celebrated his 40 year stint with Fairfax, it’s clear that nowadays dog-eat-dog is the norm and any of their front line columnists is only one readership survey away from being booted.

    It’s also clear that, while someone like Crowe has a close relationship with Turnbull’s office, no other Fairfax types have a good relationship with Shorten. Hence all they can write is speculation and innuendo, usually in very vague and general terms.

    This is evident in Bagshaw’s latest article
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/the-inside-story-of-labor-s-20-billion-tax-shock-20180628-p4zo9t.html. There is no inside story here, just a rehash of Fairfax’s “$20 billion tax hike” claim about Labor.

  23. Confessions

    We don’t yet know the motive of the shooter.
    That said I have wondered how long before someone would physically attack journalists with all of Trump’s rhetoric of how they are the evil enemies of democracy

  24. John Wren
    ‏@JohnWren1950
    Here’s how the #TurnbullFoundation works. 1. Mal donates salary to his own foundation & gets a tax deduction. 2. Donates around 5% of it to “charities” of his choosing 3 .The balance gets taken as “directors fees” straight into his low-tax (self managed) superannuation. #auspol

  25. Eke teets

    Women:
    We’ve been sexually assaulted.

    Men:
    We’ve been sexually assaulted too. When will you talk about us?

    Terry Crews:
    I was assaulted.

    Men:
    Big man like you? You let it happen. You must have wanted it. Why didn’t you speak up since? You’re not serious. Such a pick me.

  26. Socrates@7:35am
    You mentioned MT government is as callous as Abbott government. I think they are more callous.
    There is a saying that one can feed poison with nice words. That is what is happening now. By quoting “dangerous times”, he is implementing “appalling” things.

  27. Banking RC

    In the wake of yesterday’s complaint about the RC not sticking to a timetable Bankwest has scored another own goal.

    Some documents that maybe should have been provided earlier have only just shown up but are not in redacted form.

    So having started early the commission has to adjourn for 15 minutes.

    Hayne is not best pleased.

  28. Simon² Katich® @ #60 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:00 am

    A couple of decades ago, a friend of mine was planning to get pregnant, so she went into her local private health insurer…..

    Mrs Katich and I went through 2 births since 2010 and both were through the midwifery clinic at W&C. All public. The service included home visits before, during! (we just made it) and after birth. Extremely satisfied with the service.

    Agreed for both of my children.

  29. “Sky News tweets

    .@KKeneally: We would like to give company tax cuts if we’re able to do so, if the budget is in a good place and we don’t see cuts to health, education and other services we rely on.”

    No conflict with what Shorten has announced.

  30. Burgey:

    “I don’t know if it was the case with the company tax cuts announcement, but does anyone else get the impression that every now and then Shorten sort of tests the polling waters by making a big policy announcement which grabs a lot of attention? If I recall, he did it with the negative gearing thing and also with the dividend imputation stuff. It’s like he occasionally puts these things out there at certain points in the polling cycle to effectively test the strength or otherwise of the lead Labor has been enjoying for so long.

    I’m probably reading too much into it, but I get the feeling they’ve done it with a few policies over the past couple of years.”

    No. You are not reading too much into this at all.

    Shorten hasn’t blundsered through ill discipline or human frailty. The ‘captains call’ was a deliberate risk. That, and the Turnbull attack ad that preceded it have a specific purpose in Labor’s game plan. I also suspect that Albo’s Whitlam address is part of the current tactical plan – namely to allow Trumble to convince himself that Labor is vulnerable and it is time to go to the polls.

    I think Labor is turning it up because their policy development is now complete and they are ready to launch the positive poilcy blitz that a $500 billion war chest buys them.

    Whether Labor’s high risk strategy is a mistake will only be seen on election night. However every step taken so far, including the ‘captain’s call’ has been deliberate.

  31. It’s now time in the electoral cycle before the next sitting for a few announcements from sitting members of the government to announce their intention to be unavailable for the next election.
    The long break and the stubborn poll situation make an uneasy time between now and super Saturday.
    Who’ll break rank first? Julie?
    A good time to watch the real estate sales in inner Canberra.
    Will Turnbull hold his nerve or put on a display of his famous impatience ?
    Everyone except the scribes are fed up with the killbill thing with the wheels of the CPG spinning madly, making little progress. Will Turnbull ape past legendary leaders and attempt some last heroic deed to secure his own legend and status ?
    I suppose this hiatus within government allows time to contemplate house prices and retirement plans for many of the privileged class as many others sink into institutionalised poverty.

  32. citizen

    Yes my view too. I also see the abc politics as the obvious that caucus will debate it. For a debate you need someone to argue not to do something.

    Healthy democratic process at work as far as i can see.

  33. Our daughter did her sums about going private for the birth and using her health insurance. She came to the same conclusion as other posters above and saved a fortune in out of pocket costs by using the public option.

  34. zoomster @ #68 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:12 am

    SK

    Our favorite ‘snigger snigger’ story along these lines is about one of my sister’s friends.

    She signed up for health insurance before her pregnancy because she wanted her own doctor – which was code for “I don’t like Asians.”

    Come the day, her ‘own doctor’ was on leave…..

    We considered going private for all of 5 seconds when we were in country Victoria.

    Talking to the obstetrician (two in town, the only one accepting new patients) we got wtte “I deliver 9-5 Monday to Friday, and if you give birth outside of that time my underling will do anything that needs to be done”. In addition, we would have been in the same bed in the same hospital with the same staff, except a friggen fortune ($5k from memory) out of pocket.

    Mrs G gave birth at 2:30 in the morning and one of the underlings did the vacuum delivery. We saw the consultant obstetrician for probably 2 minutes the next morning. I would have been LIVID had we paid $5k for what we got.

    We didn’t see the obstetrician at all for the recent delivery, so I would have been even more livid had we paid out of pocket.

  35. Sarah Sanders denounces ‘attack on innocent journalists doing their job’ and the Internet pounces: ‘Talk to your boss or STFU’

    White House Spokesperson Sarah Sanders jumped into the fray on Thursday afternoon, publicly deploring the mass shooting at an Annapolis newspaper that left at least five dead and seven injured by using her official White House Twitter account.

    Needless to say, Sanders was immediately reminded by Twitter denizens of her almost daily attacks on reporters asking her questions in the White House briefing room as well as President Donald Trump’s incendiary rhetoric aimed at the press.

    Many angry responses :

    Patricia Arquette @PattyArquette

    You have been ramping up the vehement needless deceptive hate of the press for political gain for a long time. Feeding poison into the mouths of the criminally dangerous. Your hands have blood on them.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/sarah-sanders-denounces-attack-innocent-journalists-job-internet-pounces-talk-boss-stfu/

  36. “#BREAKING: Bill Shorten will be asked at shadow cabinet today to reverse his decision on company tax cuts, the ABC understands https://ab.co/2Na1lBZ #auspol”

    Asked? By who? The ABC wouldnt know its arse from its elbow these days unless that information was included in the daily drip.

  37. Sohar @ #81 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:35 am

    John Wren
    ‏@JohnWren1950
    Here’s how the #TurnbullFoundation works. 1. Mal donates salary to his own foundation & gets a tax deduction. 2. Donates around 5% of it to “charities” of his choosing 3 .The balance gets taken as “directors fees” straight into his low-tax (self managed) superannuation. #auspol

    John Wren is talking rubbish. Trumble’s foundation has the same SCG contribution cap as everyone else and he has the same limits on deductibility of his personal (salary sacrificed) superannuation contributions.

  38. I’m probably reading too much into it, but I get the feeling they’ve done it with a few policies over the past couple of years.

    A point I seem to have unsuccessfully tried to make last night.

    Many many times has Shorten done something that the ‘conventional wisdom’ (media groupthink) has declared a mistake. And yet it has turned out that no discernible political cost has been paid by Labor and indeed it seems to have led to political gains. This isn’t just a one off thing, but a recurring meme of Shorten does something, Press declares it a blunder, Polling says ‘yeah, nah Labor will win in a canter’.

    A thoughtful journalist with a bit of self awareness (yeah I know, but try pretending such a thing existed), might start to notice the pattern and think maybe this Shorten bloke knows a bit about what he’s doing here and the ‘convention wisdom’ is missing something important.

    It could very conceivably be that Shorten is just the biggest beneficiary of dumb luck in political history and the press were right calling all these things blunders, but you know luck…

    But, that does sound more like a rather convenient excuse for a journalist to conflate an at best messy bit of political management with the end times and so pile onto the latest overblown round of Kill Bill, than it does a dispassionate analysis of how and why Labor has led in the polling without break since the last election despite all the times the media have declared Shorten to have blundered and be under threat for the leadership.

    And if there’s one thing journalists seem to like more than anything it’s convenience. Leadershit is the ultimate political journalist convenience of course. Closely followed by regurgitating Coalition talking points as fact and calling the horse race. So that’s why we’re going to get a lot more hyperventilation about no existent challenges, gallery groupthink on Bill’s Blunders, and cheerleading for Trumble reset 179.0.

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