The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.
As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!
Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.
@ Andrew_Earlwood
Thanks for posting how big Labor’s war chest is. $500 billion pays for a lot of stuff people like.
Rossmcg
Yes, His Honour is none too pleased with Mrs Sherry and BankWest. Hayne’is building up a good head of steam.
Hola Bludgers!
Packing for Conference as if I’m going to be there for 3 weeks, not 3 days.
😀
Spud Murphy has chimed in with a gem this morning, and includes some complimentary Kill Bill at the end:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/29/turnbull-energised-by-shorten-stumble-after-captains-call-on-ta
Aparently Trumble was energised by the blunder and the L/NP have their tails up going into the winter break. Personally, I didn’t see evidence of either Trumble being energised or the L/NP having their tails up during the parliamentary sitting week. Apparently having to shelve plans to pass one of their signature tax policies due to not having the numbers, facing significant internal disunity with the NEG and having a TPP of 47/48 set in concrete for 2 years isn’t an issue of concern.
For some reason the Guardian have not enabled comments on the article.
Andrew Earlwood at 9.53
““#BREAKING: Bill Shorten will be asked at shadow cabinet today to reverse his decision on company tax cuts, the ABC understands https://ab.co/2Na1lBZ #auspol”
Asked? By who? The ABC wouldnt know its arse from its elbow these days unless that information was included in the daily drip.”
_____________________________________
Read the very brief report. Well, gee whiz, there are some in the shadow cabinet who don’t agree. I got the feeling, now reinforced, that there was a logjam of policy and Shorten decided to show leadership and break that logjam – effectively forcing the issue. Takes courage, doing it before the by-elections.
Gutless Malcolm, whose incapacity to deliver energy policy because there are elements in his own party who undermine him, is lauded by the CPG for his failure to do anything constructive on the number one obstacle to business going forward in this country today (the uncertainty of energy policy being a much bigger deterrence to investment than piddling tax rate adjustments!).
Contrary to the lazy CPG hysteria over Labor leadership strife, my view is that Bill Shorten feels so secure that he is prepared to take on recalcitrants in his own party to lock down policy. And maybe, just maybe, bluff the stupid Malcolm into calling a real election instead of the4 by-elections for fear that the party will do a Bill Hayden (except that there is no Bob Hawke waiting in the wings and anyone old enough to be politically switched on in 1983 will know how much public love there was for Hawke).
grimace. I think I was doing a little ’rounding up’. Probably more like $400 billion over 10 years (who knows, maybe another shake of the tree will give labour another round of saves).
I get: $250 billion in ‘revenue expenditure saves’ ($170 billion carried from the policies taken to the last election plus $80 billion save from the dividend cash back save), plus around $170 billion difference on personal and corporate tax. Given that the government has done ‘something’ with SMSF (the 1.5 million cap for tax free withdrawls) the differnce in revenue saves hanging over from the last election might be narrower than $170 billion, but not by much.
The way I see it is there is widespread disenchantment with the established political parties at least at a federal level.
However there has been no anti establishment, populist political party like say Five Star Movement in Italy that has emerged as a credible political movement that could poll anywhere between say 14-22% of the vote nationally. The sort of parties which have emerged have been personality driven and unstable. The rise of any such political movement could be literally earth-shaking to the political system in this country.
BK at 10.02
Rossmcg
Yes, His Honour is none too pleased with Mrs Sherry and BankWest. Hayne’is building up a good head of steam.
_____________________________________
I suspect the appointment of Hayne is another demonstration of Trumble’s political imbecility. He saw how docile and biased Dyson Heydon was and assumed that all retired High Court judges with non-radical credentials were the same. Occasionally this nation has a lucky break out of Trumble’s stupidity and political cowardice. Sadly, mostly it is downhill.
One thing that looking over the polling record does seem to indicate is that this week’s hyperventilation won’t show up as a benefit to the Coalition in the polling.
Of course this may be the week that breaks the cycle. But the odds aren’t good. Roughie is too kind. Barnyard couldn’t do more than illicit a temporary tremor. This media confection isn’t going to create a tectonic shift.
Far more likely based on the utterly remorseless flatlining is that Newspoll will either stick with another 52, or just to spite the press and their love interest round up to a 53. Shorten’s netsats etc will probably take a bit of a hit which of course the reporting will fixate on like it’s significant (hint to everyone – the real Preferred Prime Minister is the leader of the party leading the 2PP) but the entire beat up will die the same way all the rest have – through lack of 2PP support.
If the ALP conference was to happen when it was supposed to, there’d be a fair bit of policy discussion/dissent right now.
I do think that by setting the by-elections when they did, the Libs missed an opportunity — they could have profited from such ‘discussion’ within Labor if it was happening now. By stopping the conference, they may have cost ALP $$$ and inconvenienced BUT they cost themselves the ability to profit from the internal discussion that happen in the lead up to conference.
As an aside, and from earlier, I have willed myself to watch Series 2 of the Handmaidens Tale, and what strikes me is the self-indulgent nature of S2. I suspect the writers of S2 lack both the intellect and insight of the original author.
In S1 the link between the Evil Empire and how quickly it was able to establish itself and command the lives of others, was the talking point. In S2, lots of long anguished face looks.
My question is to ask why so many scenes are/were shot in gloom or semi-darkness? While it adds to the effect if done sparingly, it is meaningless when most scenes are shot this way – even those shot outside.
Meanwhile back in the real world, the header for out local West is “outraged” over Woolies “back-flipping” over the ban on plastic bags, in that they will continue to supply free bags for a week or so. And bloody critics have the gall to describe Perth as provincial. How dare they!
@ratsak
I agree polling has been pretty stable for months now, averaging 52-53% on average in favor of Labor on the two preferred party results. With both Turnbull and Shorten remaining leaders of the major parties, I can’t see this changing much all the way to election day.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #91 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 9:48 am
I suspect this is wishful thinking Andrew.
Everyone makes mistakes! In 5 years Shorten has made relatively few but they are catching up to him
Far worse for Shorten is the fact that Turnbull is making fewer mistakes and even seeming competent. This is scary I know!!!!
Turnbull has had a few “wins” lately. (Note this is how I think the public will see them – not always me)
1. The national redress scheme
2. The boats
3. the drones
4. Getting rid of Barnyard
5. Luck with the economy pick up
6. Personal tax cuts
7. Probably the foreign intervention thing
8. Even SSM will seem to many as a win for Turnbull
9. Fear of China – plays into Turnbull’s hands
10. Winning over the cross bench – treacherous gits one and all but still a win for Turnbull and co
11. Although utterly unfair MT scored a win on the s44 stuff. I blame Feeney – Shortenprotcted him for too long.
“For some reason the Guardian have not enabled comments on the article”
If the Guardian ever ceased having reader comments, readership would drop off significantly. The journalism is generally lightweight and often dishonest/selective, apart from Grog and Dog. The reader comments are my main reason to look at the Guardian.
lizzie @ #23 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 4:49 am
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Also re the Moscow Metro, you can always tell which direction the train is travelling via the PA announcement. Female voice, outbound travel on the radial lines…Male voice inbound…simples!!..I personally think that is genius…
I reckon the public (if they take notice at all) have expectations of discussion/dissent. If anything, a conference grabs attention for all the good reasons. It spotlights that the ALP are an government in waiting.
““#BREAKING: Bill Shorten will be asked at shadow cabinet today to reverse his decision on company tax cuts, the ABC understands https://ab.co/2Na1lBZ #auspol”
‘..the ABC understands’ is ABC/MSM code for we have no idea and have just made it up.
BK @ #28 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:54 am
I always thought this was precisely why you hired one of the “prestige” firms?
They are guaranteed to be very … ummm … co-operative.
Jenauthor @ 10.19
Yes. Agree totally. Making Labor hold its conference leading into the dead reporting time of Christmas and after Parliament rises for the year was a genius stroke by the Coalition – especially when its total political strategy to win the next election is a bunch of vacuous slogans and meaningless words and KillBill.
the media is going very hard fabricating a leadership crisis within the ALP to give turnbull a poll lift ahead of the by-elections. If labor doesn’t win all their seats back then media will declare shorten dead. If they win them, the media will say this was to be expected and give no credit. Anything short of a massive swing from the government will be a loss for labor, and the msm are working hard to avoid that. I don’t think Albo would be a better leader or campaigner than shorten – he’s not as disciplined or smart as shorten, and frankly looks and sounds as though he is on the turps most of the time. If labor are stupid enough to have a leadership spill now (and I don’t think they are), Plibersek is the obvious choice. A lower house seat should be found for Wong as deputy, although I’d miss her on senate estimates
zoomster @ #34 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 5:19 am
Not so sure.
Don’t you have to have a policy position first? 🙂
DTT – you might have missed the nuance of what i was saying.
I am not arguing that Shorten hasnt made mistakes. Indeed his manouvres this week may turn out to be mistakes. No, what I am pointing out is that all his moves have been deliberate, as in according to a pre-determined plan.
Contra this omnishambles of a government.
@TPOF
Why the Coalition wants to bring about the downfall of Bill Shorten’s leadership of the Federal Labor is beyond me. Because if either Albanese or Plibersek became Labor leader than the Coalition could be in real trouble.
@Andrew_Earlwood
I agree, Bill Shorten is quite underrated in my opinion as a leader. Malcolm Turnbull on the other hand very overrated, for example; he should have faced down the anti-SSM people in his party and announced a free vote among Liberal party members.
It is going to be very difficult for anybody following Malcolm Turnbull to be worse than him as a Prime Minister. He is right up there with Bill McMahon in being such a terrible Prime Minister.
phoenixRED @ #49 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 8:36 am
I don’t understand that turn of phrase. Is there such a thing as an ‘inactive shooter’?
Jake Tapper tweets
The suspect in the shooting is Jarrod Warren Ramos, multiple law enforcement sources tell CNN. Here’s an older article about a defamation claim he filed against the newspaper in 2012 that was dismissed.
http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/ph-ac-cn-jarrod-ramos-ruling-0923-20150922-story.html
Sohar
‘..the ABC understands’ is ABC/MSM code for we have no idea and have just made it up.
_____________________________________
For all my cynicism, even I don’t think they ‘make up’ stuff. What they do is use language that conveys a dramatic point but means something much more prosaic.
For example, if I say the polls have consistently shown that most Australians want Labor to win the next election, it suggests that there is a large majority for Labor, rather than a 4-6 point difference (as per Poll Bludger). Because ‘most’ is 50% plus 1.
So when the ABC breathlessly reports ‘some’ shadow cabinet members want Shorten to back down, it can mean (and almost certainly does) no less (but no more) than two. And ‘understands’ means that one recalcitrant underminer (and every party has them) has told the ABC there are more and the ABC reporter has wet his/her pants rushing to report the major division in the parliamentary party.
Malcolm Turnbull presser on his BAE come over moment
DisplayName @ #61 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 6:04 am
Because they’re trying to build a Society instead of just pandering to business and self interest. 🙂
Shadow Cabinet somewhere in Australia
Shadow Minister (let’s call him Anthony to play along): Bill, do you think we should maybe reconsider this idea of restoring the Corporate Tax rate back the 30% for businesses over $10mil turnover?
Leader of the Opposition Yeah, nah.
Anyone else?
general shaking of heads and mumbled noes
Ok, meeting closed.
@TPOF
Your analysis is pretty spot on and hence why I don’t trust the “MSM” anymore.
Dare
You’re are the one wishfully thinking. Point ya eyes at the polls . Turnbull is sailing to Batavia in a uncorked dinghy hoping against hope to be reunited with his untaxed millions. Turnbull hasn’t had a win since doing a reverse flop with Bradbury at the last election . Turnbull’s best friends are the loonies in the Senate. The band reformed and slid off the charts.
BiGD at 10.37
There’s no point in trying to work with someone who is only interested in taking advantage of that while destroying everything you want to achieve. See what happened to Barack Obama.
Labor can only work with those people who seriously want to progress this nation. That doesn’t mean those who agree with Labor, but whose involvement will improve Labor policy and implementation, rather than stymie them to maintain the self-serving status quo.
jenauthor,
There is an ALP Conference on in NSW this weekend, as you know. Hence the confected outrage directed this week at Bill Shorten. All and sundry are trying their darndest to make him stumble. And if they succeeded they could all go off like misfiring fireworks in the lead-up to the by-elections.
Soooo predictable.
BK @ #13 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:36 am
I honestly find it hard to comprehend how David Kalisch can still hold his position after the “omnishambles” of the last Census. Surely – if substantiated – this one will be his downfall …
If compromising two censuses in a row is not enough, you’d have to wonder what he has to do to get the boot!
Keep up the good work Tony! You’re going the full “kill Malcolm” at the moment.
(edit) The full article is at
https://outline.com/ALRvT3
Don’t you have to have a policy position first?
Labor’s policy has long been that of no corporate tax cuts for companies of >$2million turnover. The only issue has been how (or if) Labor would adjust this policy in light of the Parliament having passed cuts for businesses between $2 and $50mil. But the policy of only up to $2mil remains the default policy until it’s changed.
So the premise is wrong.
a r @ #126 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:34 am
It certainly doesn’t make sense in the past tense.
In the present it would imply an ongoing situation. 🙂
In a single moment, Shorten has affirmed for all to see that he is prepared to take difficult decisions – even unpopular decisions – on financial policy. This will win him respect and support from voters. Shorten will know from all his town hall events that voters want the Federal Government to honour the social democratic contract on health, education, aged care, disability, support for the unemployed, infrastructure…and so on. Voters also know social programs have to be financed and that this can be accomplished in a re-distributive fiscal system. This system has had public support since it was enacted by Curtin and Chifley 80 years ago. Shorten is obviously willing to defend that system, to strengthen and extend it. He should be applauded. He’s posing a real alternative to the worthless creeps that run the LNP.
This Sunday on #Insiders @annabelcrabb interviews @SwannyQLD #auspol https://twitter.com/InsidersABC/status/1012149002714824704/photo/1
sustainable future @ #120 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 10:28 am
SF
This is all unlikely.
First there are not SA seats available for Wong. Butler will want one ahead of Wong.
Second there is no chance of both LOTO and Deputy being from the same faction
Third while I agree Albo is not ideal I have my doubts about Plibersek. Like it or not her hubby would cop a beating and it WOULD resonate if he were to become or could become “first gentleman” Julia’s Tim copped a bit but he was not an ex jail bird. She could hardly take him on an trip to Indonesia or Malaysia where he would have copped the death penalty. I am sorry to seem negative on this, because it is to his credit that he has turned his like around and I am sure he is a really decent guy, but I can almost see the stories in the Telegraph and on 60 minutes
Fourth I think Albo is quite smart but probably not as “wise” as Shorten. He could well be a better campaigner and would certainly enthuse the base more.
No I am NOT in favour of any change so this is speculative for some years hence but if I had to choose a replacement for Shorten (from the Shadow cabinet) and in the lower house it would be
Dreyfus, Albo, Catherine King, Bowen, Tanya, Chalmers, Clare, Burke, Butler (he has no seat – if he had then after King). If they can hang out for 3-5 years then Ged Kearney, but not yet.
TPOF @ #134 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:41 am
New policy is proposed change.
In change management you try to talk to everyone concerned, a major part of this is to initially determine the issues and then to try and gain acceptance.
Those opposed or reluctant to change are important sources of information as they may point out real faults in your plan or at least give you a clearer idea of possible objections which you can use to develop strategies to combat them.
All potentially useful and silly to discount. 🙂
The fact that Labor were always going to land pretty much where they are (and are reasonably likely to go even lower than $10mil turnover) is a fact even a moron as addled as ScoMo had worked out back before the Bennelong by election…
Morrison said that “not implementing the balance of the enterprise tax plan for businesses with a turnover of over $50 million hits those businesses with a $35 billion tax bill.
“Labor’s policy at the last election and included in their election costing, was to only allow tax cuts for companies with a turnover of up to $2 million. That policy remains unchanged by Labor.
“Reversing the legislated tax cuts for firms with turnovers between $2 million and $50 million will impose a $25 billion tax bill on those businesses – impacting their growth and the jobs and wages that depend on that growth: 3.3 million Australians work in those businesses”.
He said Labor was relying on this $25 billion to pay for commitments it had made already.
https://theconversation.com/labors-dark-vision-would-bring-164-billion-tax-hit-over-decade-morrison-88343
No one should be in the least bit surprised that Labor have this policy. It has simply been the most obvious interpretation of what they have been up to on Corporate Tax since the original legislation passed. The only question has been if and by how much Labor’s policy would change in the face of the legislation passing. Shorten has merely come out and clarified that it won’t change at all for businesses over $10mil turnover, and there’s still a decision to be made if they might give a little on their policy between $2mil and $10mil.
As blunders go confirming that your existing policy remains in place doesn’t really cut it as a biggy.
8:50AMRICK MORTON
Tony Abbott warns of “sleepwalking to de-industrialisation’’, accuses PM of mixed messages to business with tax cuts and the push for NEG. (Oz headline)
Abbott is a Class-A fuckwit. Climate change is already destroying industries and throttling incomes. Since systemic environmental change also fundamentally undermines the case for investment, it is already retarding the process that could lead to increases in future incomes.
Climate change is an economic issue. It is an issue in social justice. It is an issue that challenges capitalism itself.
Unless climate change is dealt with, the system will generate self-defensive contraction. Capitalism is dynamic. The system can generate autonomous expansion. And it can generate autonomous contraction. We are already in an inflection phase where autonomous expansion in investment, production and incomes is breaking down. Carbon-intense energy systems are not merely obsolete. They are cannibalistic. The system that relies on them will collapse unless they are replaced.
ratsak @ #138 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 7:48 am
My comment was directed at “government MPs going off piste”.
Labor have a policy position as Bill announced it.
Maybe the Labor backbenches need to watch this.
https://youtu.be/Kf4nlIEHfaU
Andrew_Earlwood @ #122 Friday, June 29th, 2018 – 10:30 am
Andrew
I think in part my point was that over the last two months or so the Turnbull government has seemed less of an omnishambles. It is hard to believe because a while ago they had two stuff ups weekly.
I am not sure if there are some sane people giving advice or the Monkey Pod have weakened, but for what ever reason they have not had any major fail over the last month. This is unexpected and disturbing.
Even the bank RC is probably a win for them – looks like they care.
How many morons are there in the eastern states that cannot cope with buying and bringing recycle bags to the shops?
We have done it is SA for 9 years.
Barney
You are talking policy formulation. The post you were replying to was pointing out the failure of giving too much weight to those opposing the position.
Health Care for Obama was a good case. His adoption of Romney’s model instead of Universal Health Care was a sellout. As we have seen it did not mater that he got it passed. The GOP have undone it just like the LNP have done with climate legislation and Medibank legislation in Australia.
When you have extremist in charge the trick is not to compromise because they will not follow the rules. They will not give an inch and they will undo anything precisely because they are extremists.
This is why Turnbull has had such problems on energy policy. He has to defeat extremists in a vote in the party room. People who will not listen to reasoned sane policy proposals.
Just watching the presser on the frigate contract. Georgina is little to the left of podium and everyone is having a say …. except Georgina. What a shame, I wanted to hear what she thinks.
Deloittes even put out a note on Labor’s Tax policies back in March that includes this…
Previously announced measures impacting corporates and multinationals
With regard to the Labor position on corporate tax rate cuts already passed, Bill Shorten has confirmed that Labor would support corporate tax rate cuts only in respect of businesses with turnovers under $2 million. If this policy position was maintained, we would see some companies being subject to a tax rate increase from 27.5 per cent back to 30 per cent.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/tax/deloitte-au-tax-alp-tax-policies-2018-220318.pdf
Tell me again how confirming what has been common knowledge is such a blunder MSM…