We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:
• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.
• Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.
• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.
• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.
• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.
Its good to see that most poll bludgers unlike the Canberra Press Gallery can see the difference between a debate and a vote for something with no speakers against.
lizzie:
Just because there may not have been any debate on selling the ABC (and I don’t know whether there was or not) doesn’t necessarily mean debate couldn’t have taken place.
zoomster @ #1412 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:53 am
Plus the type of candidates the Liberals put up. I read one report of a Liberal member at the conference yesterday saying there was a conservative resurgence within the party. Just what Australia needs: a choice between a sane, centrist party like Labor, and a creepy, ideologically driven party opposite.
Scrolonby @ #1400 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:04 am
What are you referring to?
The meeting being discussed was the Liberal Federal Council. The Nats were not involved.
Fess
From what I understood, there were no speakers against the motion.
Confessions @ #1402 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:05 am
What a remarkable statement! Completely at odds with the facts.
lizzie @ #1405 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:09 am
Confessions only reads some comments here or she would know what the situation was. Self imposed ignorance.
You know what she meant Bemused – stop being such a snark
jenauthor @ #1408 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:13 am
What did she mean other than what I understood?
Bemused’s creepy obsession with Confessions continues.
Never let a chance go by, eh Bemused?
lizzie @ #1420 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 9:09 am
That doesn’t surprise me, given we know the Liberals are opposed to public broadcasting. But just because there were no speakers against THAT motion doesn’t mean that members are not allowed to speak against any motions.
From what I can see there has been no analysis of non binding resolutions (LNP) and binding resolutions(ALP) at party conferences, other than throw away lines, along the lines of a resolution to sell the ABC is generaly a bad thing, but if it was Labor the party would be bound by that resolution. This completely ignores the fact that Labor has serious debate about resolutions, that are decided in a democratic way and if a resolution is put up that the leadership disagrees with they have to put up an argument to defend their possition. The Libs leadership just ignore the resolution and say afterwards, “yeah, Nah”. That is (1) not democratic and (2) leaves the question open and a live issue when preselecting candidates.
guytaur says:
Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 10:45 am
Confessions
Yes thats true. Mr Shorten is suffering for doing exactly that with the Asylum Seekers debate.
It’s mistaken to say Shorten/Labor are “suffering” on this issue. Their restraint – their composure – is a problem for their enemies, the Gs and the LNP.
The Liberals have shown how disconnected they are from the electorate generally.
adrian @ #1410 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:17 am
So I should not correct the propagation of ignorance and mis-information?
It occurs to me that several ABC ‘personalities’, such as Leigh Sales would welcome a Murdoch takeover, as they’d be able to drop all pretence of impartiality.
Confessions @ #1386 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:38 am
My daughter just informed me she saw a bill-board appear this past week (Kenmore, Brisbane). She described it as a picture of Palmer and the words “Make Australia Great”, and all that was missing was the word “Again”. I might need to take a picture for posterity. 🙂 Though treating Trump as a joke backfired badly, so maybe not. 🙁
Roger M:
Yes that is a significant difference between the two parties.
I suspect Palmer has delusions about his own attractiveness to the Australian public.
He may be thinking that if Poorleen could resurrect, so can he.
The object lesson is that Poorleen is going down in flames … again.
Roger Miller @ #1412 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:18 am
Resolutions passed at ALP conferences are supposed to be binding on MPs, but the get out clause is that the rules make the Parliamentary Party responsible for the prioritisation and timing of implementation.
But it would be difficult to see the Parliamentary Party engage in long term defiance of a position strongly supported by the rank and file and carried at Conference by a clear majority.
guytaur @ #1350 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:04 am
No wonder the Liberal Party membership is in free fall, and those remaining are demoralised.
With the Parliamentary Liberal Party openly telling the membership that they have no influence over party policy, it’s no wonder the Liberal Party can’t get their membership out on the ground campaigning for them.
The CPG would be hysterical if senior members of the Parliamentary Labor Party had come out and said the same thing.
briefly
You can’t have it both ways. Thus my sarcastic comment to Confessions.
Mr Shorten did shut down the debate. You can cite all the excuses you want. It does not change the reality that debate was shut down.
You are either a democratic party or you are not.
Yes I also agree with Roger M about the reality of the difference between Labor and LNP conferences and thats why we have ended up with Labor shutting down that debate.
Its about the media misreporting the reality to the electorate. Not Labor being for indefinite detention or for people smugglers. Note the or.
Thats how bad I see our media being. I understand what Labor is doing and I accept why it is doing it.
I don’t agree with it all but I do see why its happening.
grimace @ #1420 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:25 am
“With the Parliamentary Liberal Party openly telling the membership that they have no influence over party policy, it’s no wonder the Liberal Party can’t get their membership out on the ground campaigning for them. ”
That was in fact one of Menzies founding principles.
It is nothing new.
Late Riser:
Palmer’s slogan implies Australia has isn’t, nor has ever been great.
What is he really suggesting? 😆
…starting a new political campaign by funding hundreds of bright yellow billboards around the country with the slogan “Make Australia Great”.
MAG. Which, in Australian colloquial terms, means ‘talk and talk’. So I guess it’s appropriate for any political party Palmer is associated with. He will talk the talk, but is singularly incapable of walking the walk.
guytaur @ #1421 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:26 am
At a State Conference debate on a Federal matter was shut down and the matter referred to the National Conference.
So what’s the problem?
If it is a Federal matter, a State Conference has no power over it and it would have to go to the National conference eventually to have any effect.
Briefly
To see how bad our media is do a compare and contrast with the US reporting on immigration of Trump’s following Dutton’s lead.
The US still has a diverse media landscape despite the efforts of Murdoch and company to tilt the reporting
You’ve got to wonder what the point of the Liberal Party holding a federal conference is.
Oh, that’s right, they are show ponies who like to pretend at democracy.
Spud Murphy is love struck by Brian Trumble:
@murpharoo
Following Following @murpharoo
More Katharine Murphy Retweeted Bernard Keane
You could laugh at a silly federal council motion for just being another silly federal council motion but the problem for the government is this stuff is the silly motion warm up act
My tweet to Spud Murphy:
Replying to @murpharoo
If @AustralianLabor had of pulled a stunt like this it would have triggered weeks hysterical Kill Bill (TM) & Labor in crisis articles from you. Where is the declaration that this is a test for Malcolm Turnbull or a failure of his leadership? #auspol
Confessions @ #1386 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:38 am
I thought he was about to be jailed and/or bankrupted for various dodgy things related to Queensland Nickel?
Re sale of ABC:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/16/tide-turning-for-turnbull-but-byelections-wont-be-easy-says-howard
In a non-binding motion put forward by the Young Liberal Movement, members called for the full privatisation of the ABC, “except for services into regional areas that are not commercially viable”.
:::::
There was no dissent from the room, and no count was needed for the vote.
————-
The Guardian’s report re no vote is contradicted by other reports including:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-party-council-votes-to-sell-off-the-abc-20180616-p4zlut.html
The Liberal Party’s peak council has voted almost 2:1 to privatise the ABC in a call that was swiftly rejected by cabinet ministers amid warnings it would be “total madness” to act on the call.
———
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/06/16/liberal-party-votes-privatise-abc/
The motion is not binding and is unlikely to become government policy, but the 2:1 vote among 100 MPs and party members in Sydney on Saturday has been considered a barometer of Liberal Party mood toward the public broadcaster.
adrian @ #1415 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:19 am
So adrian, given your deep seated and profound hatred of the ABC, I suppose we can safely presume you will be out campaigning for the Libs on their policy to sell the ABC.
Perhaps you, P1, Sohar and any other irrational ABC haters here can work as a team?
Let us know what reception you get from voters.
Thats how bad I see our media being. I understand what Labor is doing and I accept why it is doing it.
I don’t agree with it all but I do see why its happening.
And you risk becoming the show ponies, or, more appropriately, the Unicorns on the Left, The Greens, who are dab hands at wearing their hearts on their sleeves and being worse than useless.
C@tmomma @ #1439 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 9:28 am
A mag is also slang for someone who is constantly drunk.
Corrman presser on 24 now begging the Cross Bench Senators for votes.
Negotiations must be going great!!
guytaur says:
Sunday, June 17, 2018 at 11:26 am
briefly
You can’t have it both ways. Thus my sarcastic comment to Confessions.
Mr Shorten did shut down the debate. You can cite all the excuses you want. It does not change the reality that debate was shut down.
You’re just mistaken in supposing this harms Labor. You’re also mistaken in supposing there is an appetite for this issue inside Labor and that the debate has been “shut down”. This is an issue that has been politicised to the detriment of asylum-seekers, Labor and other issues. The only beneficiaries of this politicisation have been the Gs and the LNP.
a r:
If so then this will be the shortest political comeback since Andrew Bartlett!
Cat
I am not a Green.
However you are wrong. The difference is the Greens have stuck to their policy. Not said one thing in a conference to members and voted the opposite in parliament.
This is the whole problem with blame the Greens for the Malaysia failure. Simple failure to recognise who is at fault.
The bottom line is simple. Its liberal it lies.
briefly
Thanks for confirming you don’t understand sarcasm.
Edit: Also for confirming you don’t understand that voters see you. What was Batman may have a different result as Green predictions of Kearney being shafted by the party have come to pass.
Thats Labor action. By Labor. Recognise the facts.
a r @ #1430 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:32 am
I was thinking the same thing. However, I thought a bit more deeply about it, and knowing how Palmer is following the Trump playbook I imagine he thinks he can sneak into the election by keeping bankruptcy at bay in the courts.
I can’t find any reference to population, climate change or energy policy being discussed at the Liberal party federal council. All the coverage seems to be about the sale of the ABC. I wondered if this might have been done as a deliberate distraction- i.e. simultaneously dog whistling to the base and promoting an issue that they knew would have their opponents frothing at the mouth. The end result would be to get lots of press coverage, but also divert attention from the fact that no actual issues of any substance seem to have been discussed.
Can anyone provide a link that shows that any more substantive issues were discussed?
guytaur,
When The Greens stop doing deals with the Coalition in the back corridors of parliament to thwart Labor when they are in power federally, deals which go against their so-called principles, then I might believe you.
Confessions @ #1392 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:43 am
There are plenty of forums for members to have their say.
If Brian Trumble had any sort of authority within the Liberal Party this motion, along with any others that were likely to cause the Party enormous political grief without any realistic prospect of ever coming to fruition would have been discretely euthanased long before they got anywhere near a State or Federal Council meeting.
A mag is also slang for someone who is constantly drunk.
Well, for Palmer that must signify drunk on the sense of his own relevance and importance to politics in Australia.
Cat
Yes, the Greens standing by their members openly publicly stated policy is all a shifty backroom deal.
Anything to blame the Greens rather than the LNP
There are plenty of forums for members to have their say.
If Brian Trumble had any sort of authority within the Liberal Party this motion, along with any others that were likely to cause the Party enormous political grief without any realistic prospect of ever coming to fruition would have been discretely euthanaised long before they got anywhere near a State or Federal Council meeting.
You know, like a real leader, such as Bill Shorten, is capable of doing.
P1:
I’ve said before that Liberal conferences rarely debate issues that advance the country’s interests. It seems to be solely for matters of interest to the ideologically obsessed.
guytaur @ #1445 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:42 am
No, guytaur, a real back corridor of parliament deal that defied common sense in supposedly standing for The Greens’ principles but which saw hundreds more asylum seekers die by drowning on the way to Australia.
Way to go sticking to your principles.
Confessions @ #1423 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:26 am
“Quick, what’s the first thing that pops into your head?”
Image: Aging oversize spotlight seeker
Words: Make Australia Great
I got (1) Trump, then (2) OMG. It has to be deliberate. Has to. Help…
guytaur @ #1439 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 11:37 am
How has Kearney been shafted by ‘the party’?