Mid-week miscellany

Federal electoral news nuggets, sourced from Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory.

We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:

• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.

• Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.

• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.

• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,992 comments on “Mid-week miscellany”

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  1. “the sports ground has been used for soccer training; the library for community meetings, etc.
    The writer of the article seems to assume these things don’t happen.”

    It is happening it just takes a bit of vision and effort. While I was a Councillor we arranged a school / local government shared oval with lightening, a shared library and a shared performing arts centre. The library and performing arts centres didn’t go so well, but that was largely down to behaviours rather than the idea not working.

  2. Been thinking about the Lib conference. Overall, seems to me that it was all about shoring up the base. Turnbull said some idiot things, but, they are all what the base wants to hear. The base made their point by passing a couple if silly resolutions and the parliamentary wing has taken a stand that translates to:

    Vote for us as we are not quite the nuttbaggers that some in our party are.

    good luck with that i reckon. They are still talking baout the other guy not themselves.

  3. Confessions

    Nah he won’t. Its all a witch hunt its got no credulity. We know the whole thing is bogus because HER EMAILS!!!!!!

    This while his campaign chairman goes to jail.

  4. WeWantPaul @ #1351 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 7:05 am

    “the sports ground has been used for soccer training; the library for community meetings, etc.
    The writer of the article seems to assume these things don’t happen.”

    It is happening it just takes a bit of vision and effort. While I was a Councillor we arranged a school / local government shared oval with lightening, a shared library and a shared performing arts centre. The library and performing arts centres didn’t go so well, but that was largely down to behaviours rather than the idea not working.

    Isn’t “lightening” a bit of a health and safety risk? 🙂

  6. “This while his campaign chairman goes to jail.”

    because he couldn’t stop himself continue to obstruct justice while on bail … the Trump criminal group is dumb, so very very dumb, but not as dumb as those that still support / defend them.

  7. “Isn’t “lightening” a bit of a health and safety risk? ”

    Nah it add a bit of spice to the soccer games.

  11. guytaur @ #1350 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:04 am

    Good Morning

    So things have got worse in politics while I have been busy.

    No big surprise. The ABC sell off is an election winner for Labor.

    So much so within a minute of so the government was telling its own party they have no influence. As they realised the own goal it is. Too late. That vote is going to be a highlight of Labor advertising campaigns during the election.

    Save the ABC vote Labor is a great slogan.

    Really? Won’t it have people like P1, Adrian and Sohar voting LNP and out campaigning for them?

  13. Bemused

    Nah. Some complaints may have been over blown but the whole stacking with the IPA and reporting slant thing is no coincidence.

    Make the ABC sound like commercial media by underfunding it and giving editorial directive to have balance even when science disagrees.

    All part of the softening up process for the sale.

    You know it makes sense.

  14. Hi Observer,

    My barber mate has been barbering at the one shop for 15 years – very upper middle class – and says he has a number of longer-term clients. He’s noted the number who have down-graded their cars or been whinging about not overseas trip this year.

    More germane, he sees many of them, who would appear in his shop every 6 weeks like clockwork, delaying their regular haricuts by months at a time, or going somewhere cheaper and reappearing a few months later (with evidence of a rubbish haricut).

    And that’s without an interest rate rise.

  16. Trump’s zero tolerance immigration practices make Dutton look humane!

    Inside a room dedicated to toddlers was a little girl no older than 2, screaming and pounding her fists on a mat. One woman tried to give her toys and books to calm her down, but even that shelter worker seemed frustrated, Kraft told The Washington Post, because as much as she wanted to console the little girl, she couldn’t touch, hold or pick her up to let her know everything would be all right. That was the rule, Kraft said she was told: They’re not allowed to touch the children.

    “The really devastating thing was that we all knew what was going on with this child. We all knew what the problem was,” Kraft said. “She didn’t have her mother, and none of us can fix that.”

    The girl had been taken from her mother the night before and brought to this shelter that had been redecorated for children under age 12, Kraft said staffers told her.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2018/06/16/america-is-better-than-this-what-a-doctor-saw-in-a-texas-shelter-for-migrant-children/?utm_term=.fcca551ed13c

  17. guytaur @ #1363 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:15 am

    Bemused

    Nah. Some complaints may have been over blown but the whole stacking with the IPA and reporting slant thing is no coincidence.

    Make the ABC sound like commercial media by underfunding it and giving editorial directive to have balance even when science disagrees.

    All part of the softening up process for the sale.

    You know it makes sense.

    ABC Melbourne radio seems to have cut back on the IPA presence a bit. It used to be absolutely infested with them.

  18. Bemused

    Good to hear. Maybe the admission by Fifield in Estimates that he was an IPA member and the whole sell the ABC thing has made a difference. 🙂

  19. Confessions

    Nah the US is following in Dutton’s footsteps. Dutton already did that. So far no deaths have been directly attributable to US immigration policy unlike Australia.

  20. The reason why the ABC ‘sell off’, is an issue, even for people that don’t watch the ABC or even care, is that it confirms their suspicion about other sell offs. The will hurt them in Queensland. The more they deny it, the worse it is for them,

    Also on NSW state politics, the stadium development isn’t popular, but now that the business case has been revealed, is even less so. Part of the justification for the redevelopment is redirecting funds from the suburban football ovals, leaving them to deteriorate and then reschedule the games at the central, shiny new stadiums.

    Manly, in particular the local paper The Manly Daily, isn’t happy. As they note, Manly football fans aren’t great travelers to away games. This is the ‘insular peninsula ‘.

  23. guytaur @ #1368 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Bemused

    Good to hear. Maybe the admission by Fifield in Estimates that he was an IPA member and the whole sell the ABC thing has made a difference. 🙂

    Funny story…

    Many months ago Jon Faine apologised to the audience for a bit of audible bumping and banging as some renovations were going on.

    Some wag texted in an inquiry if it was an office for the IPA being installed? That triggered a flood of texts and phone calls about the IPA presence, all very negative.

  24. Christine Milne tweets

    If you vote LNP in any of five by-elections you are voting to sell the ABC. Pure and simple. #politas #auspol

  25. The reason why the ABC ‘sell off’, is an issue, even for people that don’t watch the ABC or even care, is that it confirms their suspicion about other sell offs.

    Yep, plus the more they deny it’s going to happen the more they get asked about it. Rinse and repeat.

  26. Bemused

    😆

    I am not surprised. Its noticeable there are less IPA people on the Drum nowadays not so much QandA yet.

    Guthrie may have realised its not in her interest to be seen supporting the IPA even if they are provided free of charge for commentary

  28. guytaur @ #1376 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:27 am

    Bemused

    😆

    I am not surprised. Its noticeable there are less IPA people on the Drum nowadays not so much QandA yet.

    Guthrie may have realised its not in her interest to be seen supporting the IPA even if they are provided free of charge for commentary

    Faine had a good chuckle after reading out that first text message.
    I can’t think of any IPA regular appearances now, not since Georgina Downer departed after her candidacy for Mayo was announced.
    She was so incompetent she didn’t assist their cause.

  29. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-11/tasmanians-on-quee9855122ns-birthday-honours-list/

    Tasmania’s top honour in this year’s Queen’s Birthday Honours List has gone to the former Australian Greens leader Christine Milne.

    She has been made an officer of the Order of Australia (AO) for “distinguished service to the Australian and Tasmanian Parliaments and through domestic and global contributions to the protection and preservation of the natural environment”.

    ————-
    Belated congratulations to Christine Milne.

  31. Pegasus @ #1379 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-11/tasmanians-on-quee9855122ns-birthday-honours-list/

    Tasmania’s top honour in this year’s Queen’s Birthday Honours List has gone to the former Australian Greens leader Christine Milne.

    She has been made an officer of the Order of Australia (AO) for “distinguished service to the Australian and Tasmanian Parliaments and through domestic and global contributions to the protection and preservation of the natural environment”.

    ————-
    Belated congratulations to Christine Milne.

    I await the conniptions from C@t at your appearance.

  32. The Lib conference started yesterday, and within a few hours had to be trashed by its own ministers, because of the ABC resolution.

    Let that sink in. Their big get-together, the final hootenanny before the election, was a trainwreck before the sun had set.

    Crowe tried to make it a failure of “Australian” politics, but really, how can an overwhelming vote of the Liberal Party National Conference spill over to anything Labor has said or done (especially when Labor just days ago announced a policy to do exactly the opposite and KEEP the ABC?).

    The Lib idiots couldn’t hold it together for even a single morning.

  33. zoomster @ #1349 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 9:55 am

    dtt

    What you’re pointing to is that there is a cost to schools in renting out their premises – providing someone who can solve out of hours issues, for starters.

    I know our local school facilities have been used extensively by the community – the Arts space is used a couple of times a week by the local dance group, occasionally even resulting in timetabling clashes with other events; the Home Eco room is used by TAFE for Hospitality courses; the sports ground has been used for soccer training; the library for community meetings, etc.

    The writer of the article seems to assume these things don’t happen.

    On split shifts: I have been quite taken by the idea in the past, because it’s now quite well accepted that early morning starts don’t suit senior students, and some studies have shown that, as a result, they are constantly sleep deprived. However, there are huge logistical problems around bussing students in and out, and also staffing issues.

    I actually agree with you about the community use of schools. it is there quite a bit – possibly it could be more.

    As I say the split shift idea is really not workable in Australia nay more.

    Now as working parent, I got my kids to school by 9 am quite easily but was often late making the ghastly dash to after school/childcare pick up by 6PM. I have three kids. With my eldest as a teenager I would NOT have been confident he would get himself to school by 9,10,11, 12 or even 2PM. With my second, by years 11 or 12 it might have been OK but going to school at all in years 8-10 would have been a problem. My youngest, always diligent would have made it by 7 am. Kids are all different, so if you have been lucky and had diligent punctual kids that is good but it is not the case for many others. So basically I do not think in our current society where no one is at home to check on kids split shifts are not a goer. How would your average teenage boy find his school uniform, his clean undies, school bag, lunch or head, without mum and dad at 8am throwing them at him.

    I am NOT a big fan of the “teenagers biologically programmed to wake up late stuff”. It does not make much biological sense, at least not if it involves sleeping well past sun up. Now I can see a biological reason for an hour or two, just as I can see a biological advantage in the elderly waking in the early mornings – someone has to keep watch against wolves, lions, crocodiles and marauding enemies but that means waking perhaps two hours after dawn, not sleeping in until midday. Moreover it really only makes sense for the 11-15 year olds in any biological sense. Past that age they would be Men/Women and expected to keep up and protect the tribe. Sleeping in would be a biological impossibility for a 15 year old mother or a 16 year old warrior/farmer.

  34. MH

    Thanks for the correction. So the US is fast learning from us.

    Trump did tell Turnbull he was far worse than him and what is it about boats?

  35. The simple guide to the “Liberal” party policy on sell-offs: apart from some Defence assets, if it’s in public ownership, the “Liberals” want to sell it.

  36. Good grief Clive Palmer is coming back, and trying on a Trump-like slogan.

    Palmer, the federal member for Fairfax from 2013-16, says the Palmer United party has now become the United Australia party, and will contest the next federal election.

    The change of name comes just weeks after he denied starting a new political campaign by funding hundreds of bright yellow billboards around the country with the slogan “Make Australia Great”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/17/clive-palmer-relaunches-pup-as-united-australia-party-and-announces-political-return

  37. You’d have to be supremely stupid or supremely confident of winning the next election to have come out with the ABC sell off statement. I’m going with the former.

  38. Trump ‘literally holding children hostage’ for border wall: Washington Post columnist

    Donald Trump continues trying to paint his extremely controversial policy of separating immigrant children from their parents and holding them a jail-like facilities as somehow the fault of Democrats. This despite his own advisers bragging about the policy.

    Washington Post columnist Karen Tumulty called him out in this on Saturday afternoon saying that “Trump also lies as a strategy” and laying out how that’s working here.

    “Trump is literally holding children hostage to get his unpopular border wall,” she writes. “He may think of it as leverage, but the rest of us should recognize it for what it is. It is a tragedy, born of a lie.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/trump-literally-holding-children-hostage-border-wall-washington-post-columnist/

  40. LU
    Yes there are a few “canaries” for economic health. Haircuts would certainly be one of them, as would OS holidays. Dentists too of course. Once magazines used to be the first indicator.

    These are all discretionary purchases that are the first to be chucked.

  41. Isnt “United Australia Party” trademarked or protected? I swear Palmer went down this road before and couldnt get it registered due to objections from the Liberal Party (given their relationship with the former UAP)

  42. mikehilliard @ #1402 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:39 am

    You’d have to be supremely stupid or supremely confident of winning the next election to have come out with the ABC sell off statement. I’m going with the former.

    To be fair it was members putting up motions for debate. Even if the federal party could intervene and stop them, it wouldn’t be a good look stopping members from having a say.

  44. Mike

    I go with stupid. To win governemnt the ALP needs to win seats in rural Queensland. Now I have argued here that I am not confident about Wiliam’s tracker for Qld seats – especially the rural ones. They are a funny mob. This ABC possible sell off is one thing that will resonate in these rural areas. They do not have all the other stations etc and they have poor internet services. The ABC is their connection to the world. Even if Labor does not win I can see Katter candidates winning on this issue.

  48. Fess

    To be fair it was members putting up motions for debate.

    But there was no debate. They all agreed … to sell the ABC.

  49. Confessions @ #1392 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 10:43 am

    mikehilliard @ #1402 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:39 am

    You’d have to be supremely stupid or supremely confident of winning the next election to have come out with the ABC sell off statement. I’m going with the former.

    To be fair it was members putting up motions for debate. Even if the federal party could intervene and stop them, it wouldn’t be a good look stopping members from having a say.

    It was the Liberal FEDERAL Council. And there were no speakers against the motion and no votes against it.

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