BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Very interesting, the article about US/Canada dairy conflict.
    Dairy deregulation has spread hardship wherever it has been implemented,
    As far as I know there is nothing in international trade negotiations that say a country must deregulate everything. Each country is entitled to protect some few things that they feel are worth it; otherwise we would completely deregulate the protections re. toxins in our food & biosecurity among other things.

  2. zoomster @ #393 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:14 pm

    Plants don’t give a flying rats if the stuff they need to grow comes from the soil or is provided in chemical form. They do, however, need exactly the same chemicals to grow in a pot of water as they do in a plot of soil.

    Yes indeed. But where do these chemicals come from? Some people here (no names!) seem to think that vertical farming, or “vat” farming is a closed system that requires only sunlight, water and pure thoughts. Of course, this is complete nonsense. All the micronutrients have to be provided from outside. But from where and at what cost?

    There’s a lot of rot talked about organics. There are good reasons to be wary about using herbicides and pesticides, but other than that, a plant doesn’t care if the fertiliser is cow poo or a chemical granule, as long as it gets what it needs to grow.

    Well, I can agree with this to some extent. However, non-organic fruit and vegetables may be smothered in glyphosate. And did you know that tomatoes are often coated in monosodium glutamate? If you are sensitive to these chemicals (or others) you may need to know this. But neither is required to be put on the label. Hence there may be good reason to choose “organic”.

  7. “guytaur says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 6:26 pm
    citizen
    There is speculation on twitter its not so much the privacy but the impact on his future book sales that worries him.”

    Perhaps, but what he said on the video he posted seemed more in the nature of being emotionally upset, rather than protecting his book sales revenue. Anyhow, if he actually punched the photographer, that could cause sales to rise!

  8. Canada/US milk again:
    Surely if the US farmers have to dump all that milk it is best to remove the subsidies and let Darwinian processes have their way. From the article, that seems to happening already. Eventually there will be a suitable number of dairy farmers to produce sufficient supply and also make a living. The same could be tried in Europe as well – I remember talk of ‘milk lakes’ in the EU not so many years ago

  9. PR

    A great video of Owen Jones speaking to Tom Walker aka Jonathan Pie. Loved the answer to the question as to why his shtick has taken off.

    Tom Walker : The young generation think that what I am doing is new, shouting at the Tories, WOW never seen that before. While the older generation go , Ah I remember that. It used to be mainstream. Ben Elton, Alexei Sayle…. I think the art of satire was lost a bit in the Blair years……”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA6OwzQ-P1Q

  11. booleanbach

    Don’t forget the ‘ Butter mountain” !!!! Oh and re ” not so many years ago” it was many many many years ago. So long ago I had hair 🙂

  13. b
    Butter mountains. Huge refrigeration sheds full of butter! One of my distant rellies did quite well out of storing butter.

    We had the wool mountain.

    Managing rural commodity production in a free trade world is humungously difficult.

    There is an underlying ‘problem’ for producers.

    The increase in the rate of global food production has generally outstripped the rate of population growth over the past several decades.

  15. “sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 6:38 pm
    Kim arriving in Singapore, courtesy of Air China”

    His Air Force people must have done a risk assessment and decided that the DPRK air force and Air Koryo might not make it there and back in one piece!

    Probably also their pilots don’t have that sort of flying experience.

  16. Perhaps the ‘milk lakes’ and ‘butter mountains’ are just ponds & molehills now, but AFAIK the EU still subsidises rural production – maybe not as generously as it once did.

  17. Boerwar @ #413 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    The increase in the rate of global food production has generally outstripped the rate of population growth over the past several decades.

    Except in poor countries, of course. But they can always buy our excess leafy green salad garnish, right? Those that can afford it, anyway.

  19. ‘booleanbach says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 6:47 pm

    Perhaps the ‘milk lakes’ and ‘butter mountains’ are just ponds & molehills now, but AFAIK the EU still subsidises rural production – maybe not as generously as it once did.’

    Huge subsidies. One of the reasons is maintaining rural and regional cultures. It was quite astonishing to see how small some of the sheep flocks were! Despite the subsidies the inevitable drivers operate and farm sizes are expanding, mechanization is in full swing and rural agricultural towns are being hollowed out.
    (The loss of subsidies is a serious concern to UK farmers, as is there loss of access to seasonal workers from the EU. Huge disruption coming up.)

  21. Boerwar

    OMG I forgot about the ‘wine lake’ ! 🙂 . Being on a dairy farm the ‘butter mountain’ was of greater concern.

  22. BK

    The other day there was a photo op of Barnaby at the official opening of something to do with a comms tower(?). All the local worthies were there. Despite being on leave, Joyce was there for the photo op.

    This sorts of undercuts any claim that he can’t face scrutiny or the paparazzi.

    That said, his personality really seems to be disintegrating.

  27. Is Barnaby ’embattled’ yet?

    I think that disgraced is reserved for pollies after they have left office.

  28. Boerwar

    Monty Python’s Mr Creosote meets the EEC’s ‘Butter Mountain’ . Add http to the start of this address.

    ://www.electronic-recycling.ie/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/butter-mountain.jpg

  29. Michael Stutchbery on Insiders was interesting this morning. He inadvertently managed over a single hour to reinforce every negative perception about the government and its backers, and had absolutely no idea he was doing it.

  31. Back in the old days, there was a State based restriction on the production of ‘table margarine’ to protect the dairy industry. ‘Cooking margarine’ was not restricted (I think) but it had to contain a quantity of lard or whatever, making it unsuitable for use on sandwiches.

    Whitlam oversaw the production of 300 tons of table margarine in the ACT which was distributed around the country, courtesy of the free trade provision in the constitution. After that, the restriction on table margarine production was lifted.

  32. P1

    I wouldn’t have thought sourcing or costing minerals would have been much problem. Even if you source them via mining, the footprint would be much smaller than conventional farming.

  36. B
    I agree. He simply could not bother to hide his contempt for the lower paid, women workers and those in insecure work.
    Even the normally unflappable Mr Farr got stirred up with Stutchbury’s tendentious tripe.

  37. zoomster @ #432 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 7:14 pm

    P1

    I wouldn’t have thought sourcing or costing minerals would have been much problem. Even if you source them via mining, the footprint would be much smaller than conventional farming.

    The amount of the various minerals required is of course just a fraction of a gram per plant. However, once you cut yourself off from the most abundant natural supply – soil – then you have to extract the minerals in bulk, and then transport them to where you need them. And that extraction and transport has to be commercially viable.

    Let’s just look at one element – phosphorous. From http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2016/finalwebsite/problems/phosphorus.html

    The non-trivial issues of limited supply for accelerating demand are further complicated by the fact that phosphorus is geologically concentrated only in certain areas. Although globally, elemental phosphorus is relatively abundant, high-grade phosphate rock exists in just a few areas. They are even fewer and more concentrated than oil deposits. There will undoubtedly be new reserves found in the future, but most recent discoveries have occurred in just a few places, mostly Morocco and the western Sahara. In fact, more than 70% of documented phosphate on earth is located in Morocco.

    But it gets worse. Possibly much worse. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphorus …

    In 2017, the USGS estimated 68 billion tons of world reserves, where reserve figures refer to the amount assumed recoverable at current market prices; 0.261 billion tons were mined in 2016. Critical to contemporary agriculture, its annual demand is rising nearly twice as fast as the growth of the human population.

    The production of phosphorus may have peaked already (as per 2011), leading to the possibility of global shortages by 2040. In 2007, at the rate of consumption, the supply of phosphorus was estimated to run out in 345 years. However, some scientists now believe that a “peak phosphorus” will occur in 30 years and that “At current rates, reserves will be depleted in the next 50 to 100 years.” Cofounder of Boston-based investment firm and environmental foundation Jeremy Grantham wrote in Nature in November 2012 that consumption of the element “must be drastically reduced in the next 20-40 years or we will begin to starve.

    And this is just one element. There are dozens required. And each one has to be sourced and transported – possibly halfway around the world – to supply thousands of small “vertical” or “vat” farms. Of course, there will be various businesses that “pre-package” various minerals into just a few composite additives that can then be used for multiple crops – but additional energy will be required for this extraction, processing and transportation. And of course you then have supply chain vulnerability that adds to food insecurity, which means it will need to be stockpiled, adding to the capital costs as well as the operating costs.

    Or you could just use soil 🙂

  39. poroti
    One way to waste huge amounts of phosphorous is to spread it on paddocks and allow it to leach out of the soil into ground water and/or surface water.

    Vat food production will significantly reduce phosphorous waste.

  41. Boerwar @ #439 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 7:52 pm

    poroti
    One way to waste huge amounts of phosphorous is to spread it on paddocks and allow it to leach out of the soil into ground water and/or surface water.

    Vat food production will significantly reduce phosphorous waste.

    “For every complex problem, Boerwar has an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” (with apologies to H.L. Mencken).

  43. b
    I imagine that the retaliation will target Repug strongholds. I can’t see US AgriBusiness putting up with much in the way of trade damage.

  44. I won’t enter into any dispute between PB posters, but I did look up H.L.Menken who was (sort of) paraphrased / repurposed by P1. Mr Menken left behind a few memorable quotes. Here’s one, make of it what you will:

    “On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

    Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/h_l_mencken_490503

  45. ”
    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 3:26 pm
    Confessions @ #277 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    The point of the Trump 2016 tweet is that it is the polar opposite of what he has said today.

    ‘There’s always a tweet’ that demonstrates that Trump can never hold a consistent line on anything.

    Trump lives and breathes in the now. He doesn’t care about yesterday. He cares less that there was a Tweet from a few years ago that is diametrically opposite to what he said today. He’ll just blow it off with a fresh new lie. He doesn’t live by commonly accepted standards of behaviour. He is lower than a snake’s belly and thrives via his lizard brain.

    Btw, I noticed today that, even though Melania isn’t travelling with him to Singapore, he had replaced her already with another tall, slim blonde to walk by his side.

    That man gives Jabba the Hut a good name..
    “C@tmomma
    She looked like one the models employed by Trump in WH. She was as tall as Trump, wore white suite. She got down from helicopter after Trump & her actions until the few seconds she caught up with Trump were intended to catch attention like in Hollywood movies.

  46. ”
    phoenixRED says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:07 pm
    briefly says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:01 pm

    Trump’s America reminds me of Steinbeck’s depictions. There is a such a distance between the lived-out deprivations, fears and banalities of so many and the promises America makes to itself. There is tragedy and it lives amongst Americans.

    *********************************************

    More from George Carlin :

    The owners spend billions every year lobbying to get what they want
    “You know what they want? They want more for themselves and less for everybody else. I’ll tell you what they don’t want. They don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking — well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest. They want obedient workers, people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork and just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime and the vanishing pension that disappears as soon as you come to collect it.”
    ”
    The above paragraph reminds me of our LNP.

  48. George Carlin was so on the money with his observations of what our society had become & where it was heading.
    Pure genius and wonderful satire. I miss his like in today’s increasingly bleak world.

  49. phoenixRED says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:50 pm
    Vietnam – Eight million tons of bombs ( 4 times the amount the US dropped in WW2 ) 400,000 tons of napalm, 18.2 million gallons of Agent Orange ….. 3.8 million Vietnamese deaths …plus those in Cambodia, Laos ….

    Imagine a wall that also contained the names of all the Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians, and others who died. Such a wall would be over 4 MILES LONG . It would not only be a fitting memorial to all the victims of “American exceptionalism,” it would be a perfect tombstone for that most dangerous of American myths.
    ”

    3.8 millions killed is closer to truth rather than posting Gandhi killing 4 million people.

  50. booleanbach @ #445 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    George Carlin was so on the money with his observations of what our society had become & where it was heading.
    Pure genius and wonderful satire. I miss his like in today’s increasingly bleak world.

    It’s why I like Bill Maher: cut from the same comedic cloth.

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