BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. I was going to post something by Michelle Grattan on Joyce.

    She deleted it before I could.

    Something about someone should shut him up.

  2. Boerwar says:

    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 5:18 pm

    p
    I remember reading the Gulf of Tonkin reports (I was a teen) and later being profoundly shocked when I found out that the Gulf of Tonkin Incident was cooked up. Nothing shocks me about the crooks and liars now. In a way it is comforting to have Trump as numero uno cos WYSIWYG.

    ***********************************************

    Another GOOD READ :

    Killing Hope – U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II – William Blum

    Is the United States a force for democracy?

    If you flip over the rock of American foreign policy of the past century, this is what crawls out… invasions … bombings … overthrowing governments … occupations … suppressing movements for social change … assassinating political leaders … perverting elections … manipulating labor unions … manufacturing “news” … death squads … torture … biological warfare … depleted uranium … drug trafficking … mercenaries …

    It’s not a pretty picture. It’s enough to give imperialism a bad name.

  3. What Michelle Grattan has just posted

    The revelations about the special forces might give critics of Campbell’s ban on death symbols and the like pause for thought

  4. Boerwar @ #349 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 5:20 pm

    p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks

    I’m guessing that’s a “no”.

    Also, one question the program didn’t address is where these vertical farms gets their magic organic “nutrient solution” from. Here is a partial list of the basic elements plants need that are not provided by simple sunlight and water:

    Calcium
    Sodium
    Magnesium
    Phosphorus
    Potassium
    Iron
    Sulfur
    Cobalt

    Normally of course, these come from the soil. But there is no soil. And without them, anything you do grow is actually fairly worthless as food.

  5. Briefly, Grimace (congrats to your family, by the way), do you have any inside information on the ALP “dirt file” Gary Dickhead and the West Australian have been trying to beat up since last Thursday (I think)?

    The “dirt” appears to be that the Lib candidate in Darling Range has exaggerated her qualifications (which from my reading, she has), that she is a former Lib Parliamentarian who has previously been given the arse by her electorate (which she is), and that she has been on the Parliamentary teat ever since as an adviser or researcher or staffer (whatever that means) ever since.

    Is there more, am I right?

  6. Grattan said, “The Nats need to put Barnaby under some sort of house arrest for his own good, and theirs”.

  7. Greensborough Growler @ #353 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 3:31 pm

    Grattan said, “The Nats need to put Barnaby under some sort of house arrest for his own good, and theirs”.

    Isn’t he on leave? I get he’d be going to church and doing normal everyday things while on leave, but why is he posting passive / aggressive vids on his official twitter account it he’s on leave?

    Grattan’s right.

  8. Boerwar

    In a way it is comforting to have Trump as numero uno cos WYSIWYG.

    A good point. The pig without the lipstick

  9. guytaur @ #329 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    LR

    Here is a youtube video on the concept. Repeating a lot of the things BW just posted

    Thanks. Just watched it. Unfortunately it raised more questions than it provided answers. The video had a distinct promotional feel. And although it did raise a number of environmental issues it wasn’t clear how vertical farming addressed them. For instance land degradation was raised but I was left with the idea that vertical farming was good because land degradation has us running out of land, rather than it reduces land degradation. (I realise I am being somewhat unfair, because you can’t say a lot in 3 and a bit minutes.) I will have to look for the landline episode. Thanks again!

  10. LR

    Your welcome. The Landline episode was not much more informative from memory.

    However I would say the fact that this is being done in the US EU and Australia to name three means it must have something going for it.

    Here the water savings alone would be good. 95% less water seems a good bargain for the second driest contingent on earth.

    Edit: Note we already know the pros and cons of hydroponics. That also has taken off though maybe not with the expected market.

  11. Mark Kenny represents the death of journalism as defined by 20th Century technology. Fools become tools. Kenny’s utterances are a small town spruikers attempts to maintain relevance in a changed moment in time.
    The mobs paying these wannabe maker or breakers will soon be rid of those of the totally discredited occupation, as it was known, journalism, and will accept the masses of freely available fodder to fill rags.
    Turnbull and the LNP can call an election whenever they like, they are finished and will be banished to faded memory.
    The world has moved on.

  12. Barnaby seems hyper sensitive about anyone showing an interest in what he is doing.

    That’s pretty useless behaviour for a politician who would normally want to be in the limelight. It might be an indication that he won’t even try to contest pre-selection next time around.

    Just imagine him at an election rally and somebody starts to pester him. He could go right off his rocker.

  13. GG

    That is such an interesting article. 100 million gallons of milk dumped by US dairy farmers in one year alone! Thank you.

    Classic farming: compete against each other and bankrupt each other!

    Trump’s solution? Export this mess to Canada.

  14. In a way it is comforting to have Trump as numero uno cos WYSIWYG.

    I don’t find it comforting at all, simply because with Trump WYSIWYG!!

  15. It does seem like the smh is toying with the idea that shorten won’t last the distance – Malley and now Kenny.

  16. “That is such an interesting article. 100 million gallons of milk dumped by US dairy farmers in one year alone! Thank you.

    Classic farming: compete against each other and bankrupt each other!

    Trump’s solution? Export this mess to Canada.”

    Are they idiots? Didn’t they know that if they turn it all into high end baby formula they can sell it to the Chinese for more money than gold. …

  17. poroti says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 5:41 pm

    Boerwar

    In a way it is comforting to have Trump as numero uno cos WYSIWYG.

    A good point. The pig without the lipstick

    ****************************************************

    Ad Nauseam :

    His record speaks for itself – bankrupt 6 ? times, married 3 times and involved in so many more philandering affairs …… been involved in about 3800 lawsuits, is presently involved in 70 + lawsuits, that include fraud, is allegedly 1.5-3 BILLION $$$ in debt …… let alone all his degenerate personality disorder qualities manifesting itself in extreme antisocial attitudes and behaviour…….. and in his wake hundreds of lives either spoiled or ruined or as per Rick Wilson – ‘Everything Trump Touches Dies’ ….

    and yet – HE is still there – President USA …… its almost like a Biblical Parable – The Book Of Trump Verses 1 – 10000000 … a racist, philandering, megalomaniacal, narcissistic buffoon as their leader

    “…a bloated incandescent lobotomised sexual predator…”
    Brilliant rant about Trump here from Jonathan Pie
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RMwjaZouNY

  18. LR

    One way of looking at vertical farming is that it is a continuation of many (but not all) current food production trends.

    For example, over 90% by value of agricultural production in the entire Murray Darling Basin comes from around 1% of the surface area of the Basin. Not surprisingly that is the area where chemical inputs, water inputs, nutrients inputs, energy inputs and genetic modifications are the greatest. It is also the area where biodiversity is most rigorously excluded. The key to understanding the trends is the capital interplay between the availability and cost of irrigation water, yields per the cost of all the inputs, and the risk premiums involved in managing highly variable rainfall/evapotranspiration. The colloquial terms is ‘farming out of a bag.’

    Vat foods (with or without stacking by way of vertical farming) takes this sort of concentration a lot further. We are inexorably heading towards ‘farming out of a vat’.

  19. What I’ve noticed is that as L/NP divisions worsen, so to do the number of articles about Shorten being in trouble increase. These days that’s what I read into them.

  20. A-E
    There is a global glut in dairy commodities. If follows global high prices and it follows a huge growth of investment in dairy industries world wide.
    Just one of the reasons is that the Chinese spent a motsa importing the best dairy genes from around the world. They bought a couple of thousand years worth of breeding in one go. Smart? You bet.

  21. Joyce was given leave from attending parliament.

    And then there was some debate about whether he would be back next week. That is as far as I know is not resolved. I guess we will see whether he turns up on Tuesday.

    He said himself it would be business as usual in the electorate office and I took that to mean he would be attending to matters but just not going to Canberra.

    I never for a minute expected he would be holed up at home with the family and not seen in public.

  22. Michelle Grattan tweets..

    The Nats need to put Barnaby under some sort of house arrest for his own good, and theirs

  23. phoenixRED

    When it comes to representing pretty much every stereotype the world has of ‘Mercans Trump is the perfect POTUS.

    TY for the JP. Had not seen that one.

  24. I want to be gay. I wish God made me gay, but she didn’t. I’m desperate to be gay, does anyone know of gay conversion therapy that works. I will do anything to be gay.

    Why?

    Because it gives me a free pass to say stupid things which no-one is allowed to disagree with.

    My retort would go something like this…. ‘Nope this is you showing your homophobia. How dare a Gay person point out (insert your stupid statement here)’.

  25. Boerwar @ #375 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    LR

    One way of looking at vertical farming is that it is a continuation of many (but not all) current food production trends.

    For example, over 90% by value of agricultural production in the entire Murray Darling Basin comes from around 1% of the surface area of the Basin. Not surprisingly that is the area where chemical inputs, water inputs, nutrients inputs, energy inputs and genetic modifications are the greatest. It is also the area where biodiversity is most rigorously excluded. The key to understanding the trends is the capital interplay between the availability and cost of irrigation water, yields per the cost of all the inputs, and the risk premiums involved in managing highly variable rainfall/evapotranspiration. The colloquial terms is ‘farming out of a bag.’

    Vat foods (with or without stacking by way of vertical farming) takes this sort of concentration a lot further. We are inexorably heading towards ‘farming out of a vat’.

    Are the nutrients in the bag recycled? Which thought made me remember the problems of prions that surfaced due (I think??) to feeding cows and chickens previously processed cows and chickens. Another thought, there is also a lot of food grown in sea water, no fresh water needed. Though how much water is needed to make it edible? Undoubtedly there is still a lot to learn.

  26. Pee Bee

    Wow!

    I pointed out some stupidity because the timing did not make sense to me otherwise. So I pointed out its Pride month and gave a couple of examples of triggers.

    Of course it looked stupid. Homophobia is not logical.

  27. I can see Trump (and maybe Turnbull?) using this technique in time to come:
    Mr. Putin didn’t fire any of his governors on live television, as some Russian journalists had speculated he might. But the leader’s lectures to officials that they must do better to resolve people’s daily problems helped deliver the underlying message, which many Russians accept, that any difficulties they face in their lives are the fault of Mr. Putin’s subordinates rather than the president.
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/49594.htm

  28. Boerwar @ #376 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 5:58 pm

    For example, over 90% by value of agricultural production in the entire Murray Darling Basin comes from around 1% of the surface area of the Basin. Not surprisingly that is the area where chemical inputs, water inputs, nutrients inputs, energy inputs and genetic modifications are the greatest. It is also the area where biodiversity is most rigorously excluded.

    And this has turned out so well for the entire Murray Darling Basin. – https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/the-tragedy-of-the-murraydarling-river-system-is-manmade-20170725-gxi35b.html

  29. Grattan wants to put an MP under house arrest for the good of whomever or whatever?

    Ms Grattan is onto something, IMO.

    Dutton would be my first choice. Then FrythePlanet. Then Morrison. Then Hunt.

  30. p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks.

  31. Rossmcg:

    Of course being on leave doesn’t mean you hole up at home and bunker down, never to be seen in public for the duration of your leave absence.

    But if Barnaby is on leave, why isn’t he going about his usual private business instead of posting provocative videos on his official twitter account?

    The Nats need to call him into line, and best still, pressure him to retire at the next election. The circus is just embarrassing.

  32. Plants don’t give a flying rats if the stuff they need to grow comes from the soil or is provided in chemical form. They do, however, need exactly the same chemicals to grow in a pot of water as they do in a plot of soil.

    There’s a lot of rot talked about organics. There are good reasons to be wary about using herbicides and pesticides, but other than that, a plant doesn’t care if the fertiliser is cow poo or a chemical granule, as long as it gets what it needs to grow.

  33. Confessions

    Sorry. But to me Joyce is another symbol of everything that is rotten about this government.

    The more he shows up the better.

  34. LR
    ‘Are the nutrients in the bag recycled? Which thought made me remember the problems of prions that surfaced due (I think??) to feeding cows and chickens previously processed cows and chickens. Another thought, there is also a lot of food grown in sea water, no fresh water needed. Though how much water is needed to make it edible? Undoubtedly there is still a lot to learn.’

    There is no straight answer because it varies from nutrient to nutrient. Some are pretty well used up in the growing process. Some have excesses that leach into soils and water.

    Using animal waste products to feed animals is a classic demonstration of just how wasteful whole animal farming is. The prions issue will disappear with the disappearance of whole animals when animal proteins are grown in vats.

    An increasing proportion of global seafood by value is grown by way of aquaculture (as opposed to wild caught fish). The trends in aquaculture food production are similar in many respects to the trends in terrestrial food production.

    Like all open air food production systems aquaculture is open to threats from biodiversity and to threats from climate. To address these issues, IMO, it will only be a matter of time before aquaculture moves indoors into desal water where cheap solar power can be used to cool and oxygenate the ponds. It is also likely, IMO, that fish protein production will be forced down a trophic level by changing to either GMOing the genes into plants or into small, less complex organisms.

  35. p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks

  36. Ch 7 news interviewed the photographer. He said he was taking photos of Barnaby & family leaving the church from across the road. Then Barnaby allegedly left an astonished Vikki and crossed the road to confront the photographer.

    Barnaby seems hyper sensitive at the moment about ‘invasion of his privacy’. For a person who used to crave publicity with over the top behaviour, that is not a good sign of his emotional state.

    Unless he hires (or is given) a bodyguard, it’s difficult to see him now becoming an anonymous member of the community. It’s a problem you have when you are a MP.

  37. citizen

    There is speculation on twitter its not so much the privacy but the impact on his future book sales that worries him.

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