BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  2. Its a good starter for many more doco’s on the perils of the American epidemic of oxycontin

    Thanks for that phoenixRed, I’ll save it to watch later.

    On a semi-related matter, have you been following this?
    http://kgou.org/post/oil-and-gas-industry-flexes-its-financial-muscle-governor-s-race

    They really need serious donations reform in the US to avoid these kinds of scurrilous backdoor entries that are against the interests of the public and the country.

  3. Phoenix Red

    Thats true to a degree. Its the truth that Trump used to con his way into office. Thus the Drain the Swamp slogan.

    Voters now seeing a reality they don’t like.

    Thats the ones that got to vote of course. Those that had the choice.

    The US has the extremes thats for sure.

    I hate how Turnbull is taking us down this path.

  4. Trump’s America reminds me of Steinbeck’s depictions. There is a such a distance between the lived-out deprivations, fears and banalities of so many and the promises America makes to itself. There is tragedy and it lives amongst Americans.

  5. Re Kenny’s rumour/prediction/fantasy. Bring it on, Maladept – bring – it – on! Pleeeeease! Can’t wait to vote again.

  6. Briefly

    I have problems with China being a one party state and its abuse of human rights. I will give them this though. They are doing better at getting people out of poverty than the US.

    Its why I believe we should follow Scandinavia not the US.

    Democratic countries that have done the work on getting equality in their societies.

  8. briefly says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:01 pm

    Trump’s America reminds me of Steinbeck’s depictions. There is a such a distance between the lived-out deprivations, fears and banalities of so many and the promises America makes to itself. There is tragedy and it lives amongst Americans.

    *********************************************

    More from George Carlin :

    The owners spend billions every year lobbying to get what they want
    “You know what they want? They want more for themselves and less for everybody else. I’ll tell you what they don’t want. They don’t want a population of citizens capable of critical thinking — well-informed, well-educated people capable of critical thinking. That doesn’t help them. That’s against their interest. They want obedient workers, people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork and just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime and the vanishing pension that disappears as soon as you come to collect it.”

    And now, said the comedian who didn’t crack a smile throughout the whole routine, “They’re coming for your Social Security money. They want it back so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street, and you know what, they’ll get it. You know why? It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it. You and I ain’t in the big club.

  9. briefly @ #302 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 2:01 pm

    Trump’s America reminds me of Steinbeck’s depictions. There is a such a distance between the lived-out deprivations, fears and banalities of so many and the promises America makes to itself. There is tragedy and it lives amongst Americans.

    In many ways Americans are their own worst enemy.

  10. Andrew Greene tweets

    #BREAKING Former ASIO and ASIS boss David Irvine has begun a fresh review of Australia’s Special Forces to determine “the effectiveness of reform initiatives and identify whether additional improvements are required” – more to come on @abcnews

  12. Catprog @ #296 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 3:41 pm

    On terms of vertical farming vs same area of land for traditional farming.

    https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/109739/is-plant-photosynthesis-more-efficient-than-solar-panels

    So in terms of energy only, vertical farming is much more efficient in terms of land area.

    Hmmm. The sunlight transformed by a solar panel to electricity then has to be transformed back into artificial light so that it can be absorbed by a plant using photosynthesis, but with significant losses at every additional step.

    The result is that the whole system is far less efficient than using the sunlight directly.

  13. P1

    The result is that the vertical farm has a smaller footprint on the land. If the farmers can absorb the energy costs involved by doing this by increasing productivity of that same acreage of land by making it vertical then profits could indeed happen.

    I am not saying one way or the other on the economic viability but it is not an either or by the looks of it to me. Especially as they are using the most efficient light possible of LED. The big point is of course this model would work in space unless weightlessness makes in unviable.

    So its good news really. Especially if Climate Change reduces land area we can farm on.

  14. guytaur says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:13 pm

    Andrew Greene tweets

    #BREAKING Former ASIO and ASIS boss David Irvine has begun a fresh review of Australia’s Special Forces to determine “the effectiveness of reform initiatives and identify whether additional improvements are required” – more to come on @abcnews

    ****************************************************************

    There were earlier posts related to the Mai Lai Massacre and possible war crimes by Australian SAS soldiers – I can recommend a book that I have recommended on here before :

    Kill Anything That Moves: The Real American War in Vietnam by Nick Turse

    Based on classified documents and first-person interviews, a controversial history of the Vietnam War argues that American acts of violence against millions of Vietnamese civilians were a pervasive and systematic part of the war and that soldiers were deliberately trained and ordered to conduct hate-based slaughter campaigns.

    “No book I have read in decades has so shaken me, as an American. Turse lays open the ground-level reality of a war that was far more atrocious than Americans at home have ever been allowed to know. He exposes official policies that encouraged ordinary American soldiers and airmen to inflict almost unimaginable horror and suffering on ordinary Vietnamese, followed by official cover-up as tenacious as Turse’s own decade of investigative effort against it. Kill Anything That Moves is obligatory reading for Americans, because its implications for the likely scale of atrocities and civilian casualties inflicted and covered up in our latest wars are inescapable and staggering.” ―Daniel Ellsberg, author of Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers

    ( On Amazon – get in before Turnbulls policies exclude Amazon posting to Australia )

  16. Barney:

    Barnaby keeps giving ammunition to his colleagues to pressure him into retiring at the next election.

  17. Player One @ #311 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 1:18 pm

    Catprog @ #296 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 3:41 pm

    On terms of vertical farming vs same area of land for traditional farming.

    https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/109739/is-plant-photosynthesis-more-efficient-than-solar-panels

    So in terms of energy only, vertical farming is much more efficient in terms of land area.

    Hmmm. The sunlight transformed by a solar panel to electricity then has to be transformed back into artificial light so that it can be absorbed by a plant using photosynthesis, but with significant losses at every additional step.

    The result is that the whole system is far less efficient than using the sunlight directly.

    Actually hydroponic systems are more efficient as you can direct the light only where it is needed where as outdoors the light and energy is directed everywhere! 🙂

  18. guytaur @ #313 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 4:22 pm

    P1

    The result is that the vertical farm has a smaller footprint on the land. If the farmers can absorb the energy costs involved by doing this by increasing productivity of that same acreage of land by making it vertical then profits could indeed happen.

    Perhaps. It depends on whether the losses in the whole process outweigh the increased efficiency of harvesting the sunlight.

    But I suppose that if they do, then we can have all the low-nutrient leafy green salad garnish we can afford! 🙂

  19. PR

    I have not read that. I will get it in the Kindle version if I can. Otherwise I will have to wait for Labor to fix the mess the LNP are creating with that little gem of a law to appease the likes of Gerry Harvey.

  22. guytaur says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:32 pm

    PR

    I have not read that. I will get it in the Kindle version if I can. Otherwise I will have to wait for Labor to fix the mess the LNP are creating with that little gem of a law to appease the likes of Gerry Harvey.

    *************************************

    Hi Guytaur – there IS a kindle edition on Amazon – hope you can download it OK ( $ 6.09 US )

    Reviewer James :

    Couldn’t Make it Half Way
    |
    Amidst page after page of American troop atrocities and outright murder, it’s a wonder they found time to fight a war. This book is one-note and myopic in it’s disdain for the American fighting force. If you must read, save time; read the first account of butchery. What follows is the same thing repeated over and over.

  24. catprog

    The voltaic cell efficiency v plant photosynthetic efficiency is a canard. It misses the point entirely.
    Current assessments of the potential of vertical farming are based on the assumption that food produced in vertical farms must inevitably be produced by whole vascular plants and whole animals.
    But a huge amount of energy budget goes into building and maintaining the plant or the animal and is therefore lost. Further huge amounts of energy are lost in growing, harvesting, storing and transporting the food. So, once the food is actually produced in this wasteful fashion, using whole plants and whole animals, there is a further huge wastage: – regularly up to a third of the food is wasted. Finally, because food produced in this fashion is in an open system with biodiversity it requires huge and costly inputs in terms of chemicals to protect it from pests. It also readily leaches all sorts of toxic stuff into the environment causing further costs in terms of algal blooms, etc, etc, etc.
    Vertical 24/7 vat farming will bypass current plant and animal structures. Because it will not depend on seasons it will minimize issues relating to storage. Because it will be produced closer to the consumers, it will minimize issues relating transport. Because it will be produced closer to the form in which it will be eaten, it will minimize preparation wastage.
    Unlike broad acre whole plant and whole animal farming in which food production stops during the night, vat farming will be under artificial light 24/7. This amortizes to a huge extent the capital costs of production.
    In any case, while critically important, it is not energy that is the current critical limiting factor to world food production because there is plenty of cheap oil and gas. It is water. Whole plant and whole animal food production is extremely wasteful of water.
    Vat farming uses a fraction of the water that whole plant and whole animal farming uses.
    Vertical vat farming will not happen overnight. But it is next food revolution. It has started.
    The wonderful thing about it is that it will enable the setting aside of huge areas as national parks. Combined with desal using cheap renewable energy it also offers the real prospect of river systems having a much larger environmental flow than they will ever get from whole plant and whole animal systems.

  27. P1 and guytaur, re vertical farm efficiency.

    I guess I’ll have to watch the show (or hopefully read a synopsis), but how do you measure efficiency? You could measure it using kg of food per square metre per year (or per lifetime of the equipment), or calories per dollar, or profit per quarter, or any of a number of options. I guess the point is, what problem were they trying to solve? Was it an important problem to solve?

    In terms of use in space, you wouldn’t need LEDs at all. Just face the sun. It’s only the planets that get in the way. 🙂

  28. Vietnam – Eight million tons of bombs ( 4 times the amount the US dropped in WW2 ) 400,000 tons of napalm, 18.2 million gallons of Agent Orange ….. 3.8 million Vietnamese deaths …plus those in Cambodia, Laos ….

    Vietnamese report another 40,000 killed by landmines/unexploded ordnance since 1975 … the death toll continues …

    ….and all based on a ‘false flag’ attack – the NSA have admitted it lied about what really happened in the “Gulf Of Tonkin Incident” in 1964 to make it look like North Vietnamese boats fired on US ships so creating a false justification for the Vietnamese war – throw in LBJ – with a history (family and personal) of chronic severe Bi-Polar Affective Disorder (Manic – Depressive Disorder) and Oh what a lovely war …..

    A few years before his death, former secretary of Defense Robert McNamara told students at American University that 3.8 million Vietnamese died in that war. Most college students, when asked in informal surveys, place the number at a quarter of that amount or less. The Vietnam Memorial Wall in D.C. contains the names of 58,272 Americans who died in the war. Its message is that the tragedy of that wretched war was that 58,000 Americans died. The wall is 146 feet long.

    Imagine a wall that also contained the names of all the Vietnamese, Cambodians, Laotians, and others who died. Such a wall would be over 4 MILES LONG . It would not only be a fitting memorial to all the victims of “American exceptionalism,” it would be a perfect tombstone for that most dangerous of American myths.

  33. Boerwar @ #324 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 4:46 pm

    Vertical vat farming will not happen overnight. But it is next food revolution. It has started.

    You do know that you cannot actually live on a diet of “leafy greens”, right?

    Unlike broad acre whole plant and whole animal farming in which food production stops during the night, vat farming will be under artificial light 24/7. This amortizes to a huge extent the capital costs of production.

    You do know that vertical farming simulates the day/night cycle over 24 hours, right?

    Combined with desal using cheap renewable energy it also offers the real prospect of river systems having a much larger environmental flow than they will ever get from whole plant and whole animal systems.

    You do know how much environmental damage desalination does, right?

  34. I was fortunate to visit the Vietnam Memorial Wall in DC, some years ago now. It was an incredibly moving experience. The wall starts low down so you have to bend over to read the names at your feet. The names are presented in the order they died, and wall is scaled so the height of the wall represents the death rate. As you walk the length of the wall the enormity of what it means slowly sinks in. Very moving.

  35. Boerwar says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 4:56 pm

    pR
    I like the idea of a four mile long wall.

    ***************************************

    For those innocents that were killed, I agree …… but its a very sad reflection of ‘American Democracy ‘….

  37. p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks.

  38. Right I forgot about the efficiency of the plant itself.

    However if you use LED tuned to the right wavelength then you don’r reflect the green part of the light away.

    (And this I do not know about)

  40. pR
    I like it because of the enormity. Even better would be to take tens of thousands of hectares and put a grave space for each death in the same spacing rate as they do in Arlington. The graves would stretch to the horizon. Death beyond comprehension. Endless death.

  42. Boerwar says: Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 5:04 pm

    pR
    I like it because of the enormity. Even better would be to take tens of thousands of hectares and put a grave space for each death in the same spacing rate as they do in Arlington. The graves would stretch to the horizon. Death beyond comprehension. Endless death.

    ******************************************************

    Oliver Stone’s American history: ‘We’re not under threat. We are the threat’

    Overthrowing other people’s governments: The Master List

    By William Blum

    Instances of the United States overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government)

    •China 1949 to early 1960s
    •Albania 1949-53
    •East Germany 1950s
    •Iran 1953 *
    •Guatemala 1954 *
    •Costa Rica mid-1950s
    •Syria 1956-7
    •Egypt 1957
    •Indonesia 1957-8
    •British Guiana 1953-64 *
    •Iraq 1963 *
    •North Vietnam 1945-73
    •Cambodia 1955-70 *
    •Laos 1958 *, 1959 *, 1960 *
    •Ecuador 1960-63 *
    •Congo 1960 *
    •France 1965
    •Brazil 1962-64 *
    •Dominican Republic 1963 *
    •Cuba 1959 to present
    •Bolivia 1964 *
    •Indonesia 1965 *
    •Ghana 1966 *
    •Chile 1964-73 *
    •Greece 1967 *
    •Costa Rica 1970-71
    •Bolivia 1971 *
    •Australia 1973-75 *
    •Angola 1975, 1980s
    •Zaire 1975
    •Portugal 1974-76 *
    •Jamaica 1976-80 *
    •Seychelles 1979-81
    •Chad 1981-82 *
    •Grenada 1983 *
    •South Yemen 1982-84
    •Suriname 1982-84
    •Fiji 1987 *
    •Libya 1980s
    •Nicaragua 1981-90 *
    •Panama 1989 *
    •Bulgaria 1990 *
    •Albania 1991 *
    •Iraq 1991
    •Afghanistan 1980s *
    •Somalia 1993
    •Yugoslavia 1999-2000 *
    •Ecuador 2000 *
    •Afghanistan 2001 *
    •Venezuela 2002 *
    •Iraq 2003 *
    •Haiti 2004 *
    •Somalia 2007 to present
    •Honduras 2009 *
    •Libya 2011 *
    •Syria 2012
    •Ukraine 2014 *

    Q: Why will there never be a coup d’état in Washington?

    A: Because there’s no American embassy there.

  43. p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks

  45. phoenixRED

    .and all based on a ‘false flag’ attack

    Hence my uber scepticism of anything coming from the CIA and any other member of the US ‘Intelligence community” .

  46. phoenixRED @ #328 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 4:50 pm

    Vietnam – Eight million tons of bombs ( 4 times the amount the US dropped in WW2 ) 400,000 tons of napalm, 18.2 million gallons of Agent Orange ….. 3.8 million Vietnamese deaths …plus those in Cambodia, Laos …

    A few years before his death, former secretary of Defense Robert McNamara told students at American University that 3.8 million Vietnamese died in that war. Most college students, when asked in informal surveys, place the number at a quarter of that amount or less. The Vietnam Memorial Wall in D.C. contains the names of 58,272 Americans who died in the war. Its message is that the tragedy of that wretched war was that 58,000 Americans died. The wall is 146 feet long.

    Robert McNamara’s The Fog of War

    Eleven Lessons from McNamara’s Life

    Essential viewing of you haven’t seen it –

    https://vimeo.com/149799416

  47. p
    I remember reading the Gulf of Tonkin reports (I was a teen) and later being profoundly shocked when I found out that the Gulf of Tonkin Incident was cooked up. Nothing shocks me about the crooks and liars now. In a way it is comforting to have Trump as numero uno cos WYSIWYG.

  48. Boerwar @ #343 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks

    Your choice, Boerwar. Although I think we can all guess the real reason.

    By the way, did you actually watch the Landline program?

  49. p1
    Just reminding that you that I will not be responding to your posts because they inevitably end in you engaging in personal snarks

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