BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 37
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  6. BW

    No one is bagging all christians. Just the hypocritical ones saying they are christians while doing the opposite of love.

    Edit See Barnaby Joyce.

    So yes bagging will continue.

  7. guytaur @ #129 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 11:36 am

    briefly

    I think Cat and P1 are on the same page.

    The debate comes about over ignorance on technology.

    See politicians trying to have laws to eavesdrop on conversations with a warrant.

    You can only do this if you break encryption at some point and the conversation is thus not secret.
    Its either encrypted or its not.

    This is an example of the ignorance of politicians. Its why Conroy was a great advocate for the NBN and Albo was not. No lack of trying on Albo’s part he just did not get the technology in the way Conroy did.

    Its the same with the census. Denial of Service attacks are common. The incomptentnce of the contractor is precisely why we don’t need the laws to prevent denial of service attacked. You just need massive server farms to handle the traffic. No law is going to change that reality

    Edit: The most likely candidate for DDOS attack is a government. North Korea doing Sony over the Interview movie as famous example.

    I think you over rate Conroy and under rate Albo.
    But both are politicians and I really doubt either had more than a superficial understanding of the NBN and I would not necessarily expect them to.
    You don’t need to understand a great deal about the NBN to understand the potential BENEFITS, and that’s what mattes.

  9. On Tony Walker article in “the conversation” on the spy legislation.
    Can anybody explain why is ALP supporting the legislation without much debate?
    There is a pattern here
    1. During August 2015 Border farce, where they said they will search anybody for anybody on Melbourne streets, not a word from Shorten. It was stopped not because of ALP protest because there was outrage on the streets
    2. Again when AFP wants to search people for ID, there is no protest from ALP.

  10. Bemused

    I am not attacking Albo. I just don’t think he had the time that Conroy had to get across the arguments.

    Thats all.

  11. guytaur

    I don’t think you should sit in judgement as you are doing, painting whole groups with the same brush. You wouldn’t appreciate it being done to you. Just as I don’t appreciate being grouped with “all pensioners are conservative and vote Liberal”.

  12. I once listened to Conroy (in a motel room) giving a journo a run down on the NBN and the technical details. He went on for about an hour. Of course, I don’t think a word of it made the newspapers.

  15. zoomster

    I don’t think voters need to understand the detail to support “the vision thing”.
    But they certainly understand the debacle when it hits their home 🙂

  16. lizzie

    When I say hypocritical christians I mean exactly that.

    Yes I sit in judgement of them precisely because they preach the morality of gay people when their religion tells them not to judge.

    These same hypocrites are the ones that tell woman they can’t have abortions.

    Yet as we heard from Joyce and his partner there was pressure from those people for her to have an abortion.

    Thats not labelling all Christians the same. If I had put christians without the hypocritical in front of it then you might have a case. The hypocritical makes it non general.

  19. Bemused

    Conroy did a good job with the NBN. As did Rudd on telling the benefits.

    Where they lost was in the propaganda war of the Murdoch propaganda outfit ignoring facts to help their mate Turnbull (the inventor of the internet) to get elected.

    See what happened to Nick Ross to see lengths gone to make sure facts did not count

    Just like Climate Change facts became superfluous in the election. Possibly a trial run for the US election.

    Emotions became more important than facts to our media outlets.

  21. Ven says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:17 pm

    On Tony Walker article in “the conversation” on the spy legislation.
    Can anybody explain why is ALP supporting the legislation without much debate?

    There is a pattern here
    1. During August 2015 Border farce, where they said they will search anybody for anybody on Melbourne streets, not a word from Shorten. It was stopped not because of ALP protest because there was outrage on the streets
    2. Again when AFP wants to search people for ID, there is no protest from ALP.

    Labor are not going to argue with the LNP on this issue. The LNP always try to claim this turf as their own. Labor cannot and will not keep the public focus on an LNP-positive issue.

    They will let it disappear, resisting the attempts by the LNP to incite a dispute in which Labor can only lose.

  23. I currently have the two photos side by side on my screen. Why am I enjoying it so much? I fear that says something poor about me.

    All that’s missing from the photoshopped image is a sippy cup.

  25. guytaur @ #169 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 12:28 pm

    Bemused

    Conroy did a good job with the NBN. As did Rudd on telling the benefits.

    Where they lost was in the propaganda war of the Murdoch propaganda outfit ignoring facts to help their mate Turnbull (the inventor of the internet) to get elected.

    See what happened to Nick Ross to see lengths gone to make sure facts did not count

    Just like Climate Change facts became superfluous in the election. Possibly a trial run for the US election.

    Emotions became more important than facts to our media outlets.

    Whatever.

  26. On foreign interference bill as it relates to technology.

    Its simple we should apply the same rules we always have. Citizens should have privacy as a default.
    Government should be open. The only exception should be when the National Interest mandates secrecy like we see during war.

    Thus given the realities of encryption. We should make encryption strong realising it benefits us more than it disadvantages us.

    This is why I support the EU GDPR measures. The problem with Facebook was not encryption but the fact they were sharing their data and NOT keeping it secret. With the US elections it was hackers getting hold of Democrat data. That is not having secrecy.

    I am all for open government. I do not however want anarchy.

    That means we must have encryption and law enforcement has to work without breaking the encryption as breaking it weakens our democracy and allows more bad actors not less to damage us.

  27. ‘guytaur says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:15 pm

    BW

    No one is bagging all christians…’

    Bullshit.

    Any sentence that starts ‘Christians…, with some sort of bagging following that opening, is bagging All christians. That is how the laws of english grammar work.

    I repeat, Labor has lots of Christians – MPs, Senators, members, volunteers and voters.

    So stop bagging them.

  29. BW

    Are you Joe Bullock?

    You sure sound like it.

    Real Christians will not get offended when its pointed out hate is not a christian value

  31. Boer, conservative christians have systematically colonised the Liberal Party, especially in the northern suburbs of Perth. Their political and their evangelical ambitions really overlap and are centred in Joondalup. Their main exponent is the very peculiar Ian Goodenough, member for Moore. He has an array of dependents and allies, including, apparently, Michaelia Cash, who likes Goodenough’s financial grunt. They hold enough sway to determine pre-selection results in the north.

    They want to use political means to propel their religious tenets and have been quite successful in this. The current mayor of Joondalup is Albert Jacob, the former Lib member for Burns Beach and utterly useless Minister for the Environment in the Barnett Government, and, like Goodenough, is paleo-christian.

    Their influence is a problem for the Liberals generally and has provoked some blowback. Essentially, to get a run in Liberal politics out here, you need to take an active part in one of the conservative religious congregations and first win their approval. They are not numerous, they are not representative of the community, they are not inclusive, but they are organised and disciplined.

    Back in the day, they would have been the witch-hunters of Salem.

  35. Wayne says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 10:58 am

    Get lost all of you it’s a free world and I can say what I want

    You can; and I can laugh when I want.

  36. ‘briefly says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:47 pm

    Boer, conservative christians…’

    If you want to differentiate between christians go ahead. You try to do so with your use of the adjective ‘conservative’. The lions in the Colosseum probably did a taste test as well.

    What I am seriously pointing out is that when you start a sentence with ‘Christians…’ you are essentially saying something about all christians.

    BTW, there are plenty of conservative christian Labor voters as well – old time Roman Catholics, for example so I suggest you take care when dissing ‘conservative’ christians.


  37. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:12 pm

    Lots of Labor voters are christians so stop effing bagging them.

    I don’t think you will find many fundamentalists; the problem for the liberals is they are overrunning the party.

  38. ‘guytaur says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:44 pm

    BW

    Are you Joe Bullock?

    You sure sound like it.

    Real Christians will not get offended when its pointed out hate is not a christian value’

    Talking about hate, you do hate being wrong, don’t you Guytaur? I can tell because your stupidity levels arc up something horrible.

    Just stop effin bagging all christians.

    If you Greens want to do that sort of stupid shite, go ahead. Closed-minded stupidity is a political speciality in that neck of the woods, after all.

  39. ‘frednk says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 1:10 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:12 pm

    Lots of Labor voters are christians so stop effing bagging them.

    I don’t think you will find many fundamentalists; the problem for the liberals is they are overrunning the party.’

    We actually don’t know which christians vote Labor. I am sure that some of them are fundamentalist conservative christians.

    In any case, the problem with the people you seem to be targetting is that that they are reactionaries with totalitarian tendencies. Not that they are christian per se.


  40. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 1:08 pm

    ….
    BTW, there are plenty of conservative christian Labor voters as well – old time Roman Catholics, for example so I suggest you take care when dissing ‘conservative’ christians.

    Hillsong is not the Roman Catholic church; but since you brought it up. Labor was out of power for decades because of the split brought about by B. A. Santamaria, pretty much a conservative Roman Catholic that few Roman Catholics would give the time of day in 2018.

    In my view the Liberals are facing their DLP. It will be interesting to see how long the moderates will tolerate what is going on.

  41. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 1:08 pm
    ‘briefly says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:47 pm

    Boer, conservative christians…’

    If you want to differentiate between christians go ahead. You try to do so with your use of the adjective ‘conservative’. The lions in the Colosseum probably did a taste test as well.

    What I am seriously pointing out is that when you start a sentence with ‘Christians…’ you are essentially saying something about all christians.

    BTW, there are plenty of conservative christian Labor voters as well – old time Roman Catholics, for example so I suggest you take care when dissing ‘conservative’ christians.

    I am not “dissing” christians in general, no matter their brand affiliations. The conservatives that we contend with in this district are fair game. They have quite consciously populated the Liberal Party and seek electoral support. They are a theologically-mediated faction who are also cryptic. For them, the Liberal Party livery is simply a disguise. There are similar clusters in the Eastern suburbs/Darling Ranges.

  42. BW

    Stop lying. I did not bag all christians. Only those like Fred Nile that say they love GLBTI people and then work to deny them their rights.

    Thats not love thats hate.

    If this applies to you as a Christian you identify as you should have a hard look at yourself. Its in no way bagging all christians. Just as having a Royal Commission into Child Abuse of which the Catholic Church featured prominently is not bagging all christians. Its not even bagging all Catholics.

    FYI in the US there are some evangelical church’s that do support gay rights.

    They have come to the realisation that if you love someone you stand up for their rights not campaign against them. I think the Westboro Church shamed many and they wanted to distance themselves from the hate.

  43. Oh dear,

    Barnyard has had a confrontion with a photographer outside church this morning, and threatened to ‘punch him out’. More to come…


  44. Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 1:13 pm
    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, June 10, 2018 at 12:12 pm
    ….

    In any case, the problem with the people you seem to be targetting is that that they are reactionaries with totalitarian tendencies. Not that they are christian per se.

    Hill song, Mormans; the common thread seems to be US fundamentalism. In my view the problem we face is the nonsense exported from the USA. In 2018 we have just introduced laws to stop people harassing others going for abortions; our political system is still sane; the same cannot be said for the USA. Perhaps the language need to be tightened but we should not pretend that the threat is from somewhere else.

  45. briefly @ #184 Sunday, June 10th, 2018 – 1:01 pm

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/presbyterian-church-ireland-same-sex-partners-gay-people-membership-ban-denied-vote-a8390861.html

    Phobias run deep…..

    I had to read this bit a few times. “…we wanted to consider what a credible profession of faith means for same-sex couples…”, particularly the “profession of faith” bit. I guess it means setting firm rules for clergy to work with people who are part of a same-sex couple. But the big thing I got from the article was of a fragmenting church.

  46. There’s always a tweet! Or in this instance a tweet of his own words.

    ABC News PoliticsVerified account@ABCPolitics
    31 Jul 2016
    .@realDonaldTrump: “The people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.”

    :large

  50. So, Trump reckons that the Russian invasion of Crimea was a democracy thing?

    Putin must have a video of Trump chewing on some sex workers’ excrement.

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