The only new poll result this week, from Newspoll, landed right on the existing results for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records only the slightest of movements in this week’s update. The biggest of these is a 0.4% increase for One Nation, who were up two points in Newspoll. The only changes on the seat projection result from the fact that my hypothetical election is now one conducted using mini-redistributions, giving Labor extra seats in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, and the Liberals losing one in South Australia.
The voting intention readings don’t offer much excitement, but Newspoll’s latest leadership numbers further contribute to an impression of rising popularity (or at least, falling unpopularity) for Malcolm Turnbull, which seemed to kick in two to three months ago. Turnbull’s net approval trend rating is now well clear of Bill Shorten’s for the first time since early 2016, and he has more than recovered from a slight dip in his preferred prime minister rating over New Year.
Full results:
Boerwar @ #90 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 10:48 am
I bet it could be used for solar farms.
Thanks pica!
Barney in Go Dau says:
Friday, June 1, 2018 at 10:46 am
I’ve had one experience of being upgraded to business class and it’s the one thing I would change about how I travel if money wasn’t an issue!
——————————–
Just once for me as well . Johannesburg to Singapore so I had plenty of time to enjoy it.
Adrian
That is a lot of flying!
Mr Newbie, your journal article is based on ‘observational’ studies. These can only deliver a hypothesis – and in no way constitute proof. They are merely a jumping off point to ask the question
An example would be the estrogen study in the massive HERS clinical study in the US. A previous – very large observational study suggested estrogen protected women from heart disease. The follow up clinical study – where the participants were randomly controlled, actually ‘proved’ the contrary and the reason the women in the first study likely had less heart events were because they were, as a group, more health conscious and reduced risks in other areas.
I read the ‘meta-analysis’ you provided in full and it seems to me, from a point-of-view of scientific rigour, to be flawed. The writers start from a perspective that ‘assumes’ certain hypotheses as fact – but in very recent times many of these so-called facts have been debunked by rigorous randomly controlled clinical trials. Observational studies do NOT in any way establish causation.
Like the assumption cholesterol is a risk for heart disease (and the makers of statins were likely delighted). But more recent clinical trials have disproven this ‘fact’ and in the sturdiest showed lower cholesterol in over 60s, for instance, with no previous heart disease, actual had higher rates of morbidity/CVAs.
It is also now well established, through clinical trials, that dietary fat does not cause body fat in a normal level of consumption. Insulin causes fat to be absorbed into the organs/tissues – which is triggered by glucose and protein level consumption – not fat.
Finally, as I said before, that study you cited talked basically about lower carb/high protein diets. That is not the same as a ketogenic diet. I am on, and have been studying ‘very low carb, high fat’ diets. You say I want to confirm my preexisting beliefs … well that may be, but my preexisting beliefs come from experience and then going to clinical trials for reinforcement. Sure ketosis can be achieved by very low calorie diets but they are not sustainable and have a 98% failure rate – i.e. people rebound and actually gain more weight and cause more disease risk thereby. The big bonus for LCHF diets is it is sustainable – one can stick to it for years without feeling deprived, getting depression (indeed it has been shown to ameliorate mood) and all the health markers improve in most people.
Off soapbox – and apologies to other posters who are sick and tired of this argument.
Having just been to Canada and back which involved two 14-hour flights, two five-hour flights, a 90-minute flight and two five -hour airport stopovers I venture that the memories of the places I saw, the people I met and the things I did will linger far longer than the inconvenience and discomfort caused by the travel.
Enjoy Italy, Victoria. On the cards for me next year.
‘HaveAchat says:
Friday, June 1, 2018 at 10:52 am
In relation to the UBI, I wonder how many of the people that currently work in the support services, such as centrelink, disabled services and those other areas that support all the allowances and support available, will take to becoming unemployed with the removal of their employment and the introduction of a UBI which would be expected to make their jobs redundant. ‘
They will be grateful that all the work they have done has come to 100% fruition and that they have succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.
kevjohnno @ #104 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:02 am
Mine was Bangkok to Delhi.
It was just long enough to really appreciate the difference.
Alas, still looking for that rich widow!!! 🙂
ar
Yep. But only a very tiny fraction of the rangelands would be needed to solar power Australia to anything it wanted.
Yes indeed Victoria!
Was worth it, but ideally would liked to have stayed longer in a really beautiful part of America.
j
The ones who are tired of it can use their scroll wheels. I am finding it all very interesting.
My earlier call of the Sunday Times in WA as ranking as the worst paper in metropolitan Oz was merely a totally biased, unsubstantiated and subjective call from me. I have no frame of reference at all apart from the fact that over time I have looked at a lot of bloody newspapers – and in my narrow, parochial judgement the ST is of the lowest order. This is not to suggest this paper does not bobble along with lots of others in Oz down what is a one-way steam to newspaper oblivion. Shame really, as I enjoy reading newspapers.
Notwithstanding BiGD agreeing with William earlier it is Labor losing a seat in SA – Pt Adelaide abolished and the draft redistribution sets up 5 Labor 4 Liberal plus Mayo. Currently 6 Labor 4 Liberal plus Mayo.
Vic
This incident hit the world’s media. Note that the initial official reaction was contempt for tourists. This is still the underlying attitude but this incident hurt bookings in Venice. So the official stance altered. In a full year’s travel in Europe we were only ripped off in one place: Venice. We talked to people about it. Even the Italians complained about it.
http://www.traveller.com.au/venice-lunch-ripoff-mayor-calls-tourists-cheapskates-over-797-lunch-gzii7n
Vogon Poet @ #87 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:42 am
It was the one and only time I’ve been given a free upgrade with an airline. It was Qatar to Melbourne and it was bliss!
lizzie
Born to abuse sniffer dogs.
Rossmcg – I can’t beat that!
I did discover that the best way to kill time at US airports is to sit at a welcoming looking bar, order some food, and a couple of drinks and wait for people to come and start a conversation.
Everyone has a story!
Perfectly fine with me.
😋face savouring delicious food
Wakefield @ #114 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:12 am
That is the draft, not the final, so we will see.
Anyway on the current point, William has clearly stated that he has adjusted BludgerTrack to reflect a mini redistribution.
Because if an election was called now that’s what it would be held under.
When the redistribution is finalised, I’m sure he will make the appropriate adjustments to reflect them! 🙂
I have assumed that Di Natale’s UBI will the end of it in the sense of government transfers to individuals. There will be no more concessions, subsidies, freebies in any way shape or form for housing, health, transport, education and health?
This premise needs to be clarified.
Because if there is an intention to add any or all of these to the UBI then the budget deficit will be that much larger and even more additional revenue will need to be found or even more Numpty Money will have to be printed.
Wakefield,
The Liberals will lose a seat in SA if the the next election is called too early for the full redistribution to be finally gazetted, and the AEC is forced to a mini-redistribution.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/mini.htm#heading0
adrian
I trust you take the opportunity to tell them how you wrassle alligators before breakfast.
LIzzie
My state school educated son never had much to do with private school types until he went to uni and one of his first impressions was the quality and quantity of drugs the private school guys had access to.
Maybe the SA Premier is looking in the wrong place.
citizen @ #98 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 10:59 am
Citizen
I wonder if it is Murdoch playing games or something else.
Howard had many failings but oddly enough re China he was fairly responsible (as he was with East Timor). Now it is possible (again I am speculating) that there are or were competing “camps” in out Foreign affairs/military type of advisors – those who fear china and those who fer Indonesia. Both have been strong at different times and if we go back to the Howard years i think it was Indonesia that was the chief bogey. It seems possible that Howard is in the “China” camp, whereas the fully fledged NCC types remain in 1950s mode and fear “commie China.”
This division seems to cross party lines. Over the years I am going to take a bit of a wild punt and do some line ups. I may well be very, very wrong – but this is after all speculation – very good for the little grey cells.
1950s -1960s
Anti China pro Indonesia mob
NCC types especially Santa Maria with strong links to Indonesia.
All those strongly in favour of US alliance
Most of the ALP right wing – especially DLP leaning types-
Pro China
Not really any except the far left. I guess you can include Cairns and Murphy etc.Possibly Evatt
I think Menzies and the Liberals were not in favour of either – feared them both. Still hankering for Mother England.
1970s-90s
Anti China pro Indonesia mob
Abbott and the DLP mates. Probably more fear and hatred of commies than love for indonesia
Whitlam while not anti China was certainly very, very pro Indonesia
Greg Sheridan
Paul Keating
Prochina
Not many but obviously this was starting to emerge
Whitlam was pretty good on this
Fraser – big question mark here. Not sure at all
2000-present
Anti China pro Indonesia mob
I do not think there were many with a strong public presence
Prochina
Howard I think
Rudd obviously
Many in NSW ALP right – but NOT those with DLP links – in other words the non religious (non catholic section of the NSW ALP right) eg Bob Carr, Sam Dastyari
Anyway this is mostly speculation. Interesting though.
Adrian
Airport people watching is best free show in the world.
Rossmcg @ #125 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:21 am
Maybe they don’t want to find them!!!! 🙂
All together boys and girls. 🎸
♫I’ve been everywhere,♪ man
♪I’ve been ♫everywhere, man
Crossed ♪the deserts♫ bare, man
I’ve ♪breathed the♫ mountain air, man
Travel, I’ve had my share, ♫man
I’ve been♫ everywhere
🎸
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UAh7ogwAYQ
For what it’s worth, I’ve been to Wagga. 😎
Has anyone else watched ABC’s “Home to dinner”?
It is always amusing to see how a recreated time journey just misses the mark.
I also laughed at the modern wife making tea by putting the tea-strainer in the pot and pouring water on it, as if it were a coffee filter. Good effort overall tho.
How to implement a UBI – at least in the US context
https://medium.com/economicsecproj/how-to-reform-welfare-and-taxes-to-provide-every-american-citizen-with-a-basic-income-bc67d3f4c2b8
Note how tax reforms are an essential part. Now Australia is a different animal in terms of its tax system, but the same basic methodology applies.
Grimace,
I got lucky once too, I’ll admit it was nice, but can’t justify the price differential.
You can still get unlucky in business/first class too.
An extremely wealthy mate of mine was flying home to Wales to visit his mum with his wife and 2 year old son, first class.
The kid screamed the entire flight, didn’t worry my mate as he’s deaf, just turns off the implant-silence.
He thought he’d do the couple next to him a favour and switched seats to the opposite end of first class at Singers.
So did the other couple.
When they realized their fate, they got stuck into the Dom to drown their sorrows..
Minimum wage up 3.5% to $719.20 per week.
daretotread. @ #126 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:23 am
Yeah, right!!
Spying on East Timor so as to steal their oil rights was completely responsible!!!
Wakefield
William & BigD are referring to what would happen if the election was called before the SA redistribution was completed and a mini-redistribution had to be done.
From the AEC
What if a federal election is held before the redistribution process is completed?
If the writ for a House of Representatives election is issued before the completion of a redistribution and there is no change to the number of electoral divisions for the state or territory, the election would be contested on the current electoral boundaries. The work of the Redistribution Committee would continue irrespective of the election.
However, if the writ for a House of Representatives election was issued before the completion of a redistribution which was occurring due to a change of entitlement, a mini-redistribution would be required (section 76 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918).
A mini-redistribution takes place as follows:
where a state is entitled to extra members of the House of Representatives, the two contiguous divisions with the highest combined enrolment will be split into three electoral divisions. The newly-created electoral division is given a hyphenated name – a combination of the names of the two divisions from which it was created. All other divisions would be contested on the boundaries which applied at the most recent federal election.
where a state is entitled to fewer members of the House of Representatives, the pair of contiguous electoral divisions with the lowest combined enrolment will be merged to create one electoral division. The name of the newly created electoral division will be a combination of the two electoral divisional names. All other divisions would be contested on the boundaries which applied at the most recent federal election.
These electoral divisions would continue to apply until the next redistribution is triggered.
Fair work lifts minimum wage
https://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace/fair-work-umpire-rules-minimum-wage-to-rise-by-24-30-a-week-20180531-p4zire.html
Cue screaming and wailing and gnashing of teeth from Tories and employer lobby groups that this will be the end of economic growth, jobs will go, etc, etc.
Lizzie
I watched a bit of Home to Dinner. I was surprised to see that in that family that the father was the one doing most of the cooking normally. Not as common in the parents generation
Maybe pressure could be put on the private schools – “If you have nothing to hide, then you will welcome the drug sniffer dogs”.
Whatever.
PCC
An entirely reasonable approach, IMO in that it addresses the ins and the outs.
I trust that someone puts this one under Di Natale’s nose and demands that he comes up with the equivalent for Australia.
The questionable assumptions in the figuring, IMO:
1. That you can ignore 9% of the population (illegal migrants).
2. That children cost only 10% of the UBI. (I assumed 20% in my calculations)
3. That the UBI will work at his low (IMO) settings.
Once you get past the current social security outgoings, every thousand dollars difference in the individual UBI is an additional $80 billion requirement on the Budget over forward estimates.
The other element that Di Natale will have to address is how our 800,000 migrants over forward estimates will be treated.
Will they get a UBI when they step off the plane?
If not, how will their various social security needs be met?
Of course private school kids have more and better drugs. 1. They can afford them. 2. If caught, well connected parents and schools desperate to avoid scandals will ensure they will get away with it. The cynic in me suggests this applies to many bad behaviours other than drug use.
citizen @ #138 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:36 am
Don’t be stupid.
The dogs are there to keep the plebs in line!!!
DG
You do do a nice line in snarky and abusive commentary.
You might as well try to be reasonable as well as rational.
Total personal debt in Australia is around $2 trillion.
To run a debt book of that size the People’s Bank is going to have to have the $2 trillion to lend.
Ides
Yes, the “modern family” seemed to have been chosen to be as different from the 50s family as possible, with a professional mother and a housekeeping dad. I did think that starting them off with a dinner of tripe was a bit cruel.
Boerwar @ #140 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:39 am
1. Would exclude temporary workers in Australias case.
2. The proposal was based on $12,000 for an adult and $4,000 per child with a 10% loading.
3. “First, how much are we talking about? In the United States, I suggest starting with the definition of poverty we already use, and eliminating poverty entirely. According to 2017 federal poverty guidelines, this means if we were to pass legislation tomorrow, it would need to be $12,060 per adult citizen and $4,180 per dependent under 18.”
https://medium.com/economicsecproj/how-to-reform-welfare-and-taxes-to-provide-every-american-citizen-with-a-basic-income-bc67d3f4c2b8
Boewar is starting to be like EDJ.
Hugh Brown @ #139 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 11:39 am
eg tony abbott.
Not imply he was a drug taker etc, I don’t know, but his general conduct at Uni etc which is on the public record.
SA? The state that put in LNP.
Cud Chewer – thank you for posting that article – I have long been skeptical of UBI, but that article does theoretically point to a way to implement it, though the scale of the task is monumental, and sad to say, nigh-on-impossible politically.
I especially liked the idea of the “clawback” – whereby a person earning over a certain amount in income, a person who owned land worth over a certain amount, or a person who bought goods and services worth over a certain amount, all paid more in taxes than they earnt in UBI. Now, assuming that a certain percentage of the wealthy will satisfy at least two of those three categories, that does suggest to me that a UBI could be highly progressive, depending on its design and construction.
One reservation I have from the article: the author relies on a financial transaction tax and a carbon tax to partially fund a UBI. By their very nature, as taxes designed to reduce certain kinds of behaviour, their revenue generation will increase for a short period but then will reduce over time, meaning they are not reliable sources of revenue.
Further, and separate to the idea of the UBI, I love the concept of taxing big data and intellectual property in order to contribute to sovereign wealth funds, from which a “prosperity dividend” is then paid back out to citizens on top of their UBI. Such democratisation of wealth is the only real way forward when it comes to automation of production, which as this point in time, is unstoppable.
I’ve managed to snag three upgrades. I think due to travelling alone.
Detroit to Osaka with United.
Los Angeles to London with Virgin Atlantic.
Perth to Sydney with Qantas.
All nice long flights, all total surprises and all way beyond my afford under normal circumstances.
I watched home for dinner on iview the other night and to be honest I didn’t mind the show.
I am a Shire boy born in 55 and can remember a lot of the things that happened especially late in the 50s decade of the show.
Never suffered the dripping on bread but could remember the horrible nights of tripe once a week.
To this day I still tell the story of how we always had the same meal most nights of the week. Chops and veg heaped high on the big plate. Ive told the story of remembering my mum had something wrong with her blood count and the Doctor advised her to change her diet.
I remembered how mum introduced pineapple into our evening meals while dad still desired and usually got the chops and veg.
Watching the show and not really realising it when they had the part on the Qld Govt presenting the Queen with 500 cans of pineapple and how pineapples became really popular with aussie families …. well the penny dropped with me.
Although I was five at the end of the decade I still remember the old wringer for washing. I look forward to the 60’s show next week. The old fridge and the black and white TV. The old man was one of the first in our street to get a coloured TV (the 60s?) and I remember our loungeroom was often choc a block with the neighbouring kids watching this new thing. Dad told us later that his main reason for getting ‘colour’ asap was so he could watch the cricket.
One thing I did notice that was not mentioned in the show was, and I dont know about other areas of Sydney but in the 50’s the shire still had the pans which were collected by as us kids knew them as – the shittoes. Arhhh the good old days.
The show brought back a lot of good memories for me. I look forward to the next one.