BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

Nothing doing on voting intention in the latest poll aggregate update, but Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership ratings are continuing to look up.

The only new poll result this week, from Newspoll, landed right on the existing results for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records only the slightest of movements in this week’s update. The biggest of these is a 0.4% increase for One Nation, who were up two points in Newspoll. The only changes on the seat projection result from the fact that my hypothetical election is now one conducted using mini-redistributions, giving Labor extra seats in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, and the Liberals losing one in South Australia.

The voting intention readings don’t offer much excitement, but Newspoll’s latest leadership numbers further contribute to an impression of rising popularity (or at least, falling unpopularity) for Malcolm Turnbull, which seemed to kick in two to three months ago. Turnbull’s net approval trend rating is now well clear of Bill Shorten’s for the first time since early 2016, and he has more than recovered from a slight dip in his preferred prime minister rating over New Year.

Full results:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

  1. Hey Dan, did you know that during the Boer War when Breaker Morant got shot by the British the bloke that was shot next to him was called Handcock?
    It explains everything.

  2. https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/02/inenglish/1527923861_613889.html

    New Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez takes office at Zarzuela palace
    His Cabinet is likely to be made up of politicians from his Socialist Party, with a spokesperson already having announced there will be no ministers from Podemos

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/06/02/inenglish/1527944812_829249.html

    New Catalan government sworn in, paving way for suspension of direct rule
    New regional premier Quim Torra turns ceremony in Barcelona today into homage to the politicians currently in jail or who fled Spain to avoid arrest

  3. boomy1

    I don’t hold any grudge against boerwar personally, I just find his anti-left rantings tedious and occasionally offensive. I enjoy reading his thoughts on agriculture and some of his personal recollections. As I said, it’s just his hatred of anything “left” and his misplaced belief in military might that rubs me the wrong way.

  4. West Coast 25 free kicks
    St Kilda 12 free kicks

    St Kilda, minus the players unavailable, must be the most undisciplined side in the Competition.

    Or the AFL replicates the NRL when Murdoch owned the competition and owned Melbourne Storm

    My money is on the latter

    Which is why interest in the AFL Competition is falling at a significant rate.

  5. briefly @ #894 Saturday, June 2nd, 2018 – 7:54 pm

    The UBI concept, as Doyley suggests, solves a problem that doesn’t exist – poverty among the wealthy – and doesn’t actually deal with problems that do exist – deep, structural inequalities in income, wealth, opportunity, capital distribution (of all kinds), the costs of healthcare, aged care, education, training, child-care, the burdens of disability and illness and the failures in the labour market.

    My view is we should increase monetary and non-monetary social incomes. We should aim our efforts at solving real problems rather than just issuing income credits to all. At a certain level, the UBI is just insulting. It says to the unemployed or the institutionally-disadvantaged “Your problems are too great to be addressed. Here, take some money. Now get lost.” This is next to useless. We need institutional solutions to institutional problems and individual solutions to individual problems.

    That really gets to the heart of it and it comes down to the core philosophies in establishing it.

    If the current Government implemented one you would imagine it would be very much a hand washing exercise of, there’s your money, now f#%^ off.

    A more progressive approach would concede that eliminating poverty is not going to solve everyone’s problem, so you would need to provide support for those that slip through the cracks.

    Another issue is the implementation, you would need to do it in such a way that minimised the inflationary effects of just dumping a large wad of cash in everyone’s pockets.

    I think some of the objectives of a UBI could be achieved through our existing welfare system.

    Another possible option could be to implement negative taxation for those under the poverty line.

    Fascinating concept but it definitely isn’t as simple as some here would make you believe and there may be other ways. 🙂

  6. A UBI would not necessarily be inflationary, as it would entail increasing the rate of income transfer away from some sectors and towards others. There would not necessarily be much net change in demand, but its sources/composition would change. This is all unknown and would vary with impacts on savings rates.

    Considering the wealthy have high savings rates, an increase in the tax they pay may or may may not change their savings overall. They may just increase their savings anyway even though their disposable income may have been cut. Low income households also have high savings rates (as a share of income) though low actual savings. Many may save their windfall.

    If non-monetary social incomes (support for health and education costs and unemployment benefits) were significantly cut, low income households as a whole may respond by radically cutting their discretionary spending/lifting savings.

    Households with low savings rates – middle income households with children – may not experience much change in their net financial positions. This would depend on their final tax/transfer accounts.

  7. don’t hold any grudge against boerwar personally, I just find his anti-left rantings tedious and occasionally offensive. I enjoy reading his thoughts on agriculture and some of his personal recollections. As I said, it’s just his hatred of anything “left” and his misplaced belief in military might that rubs me the wrong way.

    I am always on the lookout for his posts on his experience in the Territory and the full on stuff with the indigenous people up around there.
    I’ve seen a bit and learned little probably but he seems pretty well travelled.
    I just get sick of trillions all the time, millions of billions of trillions if you vote for De Natale.

  8. briefly, I struggle to make sense of that comment @10:54

    A UBI is not a cure to all problems. It is a cure to many. Including the fundamental problem of treating people who are sick, disabled or not working as “special cases” or worse, second class.

  9. If the current Government implemented one you would imagine it would be very much a hand washing exercise of, there’s your money, now f#%^ off.

    Precisely. The U in a UBI stands for UNIVERSAL. Everyone gets it. Therefore no one is stigmatised, or treated as bludger, or a failure or worse. There are many people for whom with the current system its not just the poverty, its the being treated as second class, being made to fill out forms or endure “mutual obligations” or simply being made to feel like they don’t belong in society.

    Make it universal and all that goes away.

  10. briefly, a well implemented UBI will tend to increase spending by people with low or no income.

    That feeds back through the economy and through the tax system. That’s the nice thing about being the owner and issuer of a currency which is what the Federal government is.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Noel Whittaker looks at the tax implications of that $150000.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/tax/family-trust-won-t-let-barnaby-and-vikki-dodge-tax-20180602-p4zj2n.html
    Oh dear! Now Lucy Gichuhi’s citizenship is under question.
    https://outline.com/LbAR2g
    Greg Jericho says the underperformance of retail super funds and their vague responses raise serious questions.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jun/03/super-funds-treat-customers-with-contempt-thats-putting-it-lightly
    Irresponsible idiot Trump on Friday shattered several decades of protocol — and possibly violated a federal directive — by hinting strongly that the monthly US jobs report would be a rosy one 69 minutes before its release.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-jobs-tweet-shatters-decades-of-protocol-jolts-markets-20180602-p4zj26.html
    Labor activists driving mobile billboards around Queensland towns with a potent political message have the government rattled.
    https://outline.com/eTYUTG
    Turnbull, has shut down suggestions the Liberal Mayo byelection candidate Georgina Downer is unfamiliar with the local community after being away from the electorate for 20 years.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/02/mayo-byelection-turnbull-rejects-talk-about-downer-not-being
    In a very long and detailed examination Adam Morton explains how the Australian government will announce it has spent up to $2.3bn over three years on a scheme that is a reckless waste of public money. Direct Action.
    In a bid to secure a sale in a cooling market, Sydney homeowners are discounting their properties at their highest level in five years.
    https://www.domain.com.au/news/discounting-on-sydney-properties-at-highest-level-in-years-with-price-drops-biggest-on-the-lower-north-shore-20180524-h10hva/
    Matt Wade tells us five things we can learn from economists.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/five-things-consumers-can-learn-from-economists-20180601-p4zizb.html
    Gerard Kennedy writes that if social conservative Craig Kelly loses preselection his dumping would send out an unambiguous message that even high-profile conservative backbenchers are not welcome in some sections of the party and it would not be helpful to Turnbull.
    https://outline.com/sMqhVu
    Senator Brian Burston says he still “loves” Pauline Hanson despite their spectacular falling out, blaming her chief-of staff James Ashby for the One Nation leader’s troubles.
    https://outline.com/FNaGV9
    Martin Hirst writes about the Coalition’s policies of exclusion.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/nasty-brutish-and-short-hobbes-and-the-coalitions-politics-of-exclusion,11559
    You wouldn’t want to tangle with one of the security bollards at Parliament House!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/what-does-it-look-like-when-a-bollard-is-raised-on-a-comcar-20180601-p4ziz9.html
    As a privately insured person it certainly pays to shop around for a surgeon and a hospital.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/insurance/when-my-dad-needed-surgery-he-couldn-t-believe-the-bill-20180531-p4ziq7.html
    Jason Wilson is of the opinion that Channel Seven’s Sunrise keeps offering some of the worst elements of tabloid media. He astutely concludes that Australia does not have a successful, partisan, right wing broadcaster. But that may be just because its mainstream outlets do enough right wing messaging to make such an enterprise redundant.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/01/a-breakfast-tvshow-has-cultural-power-sunrise-uses-it-in-questionable-ways
    Julie Szego implores us to not watch the Barnaby interview.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-nothing-to-see-here-folks-move-along-20180531-p4ziok.html
    And Hamish McDonald writes that the latest instalment of the Barnaby Chronicles raises serious questions about the way our democratic system functions and about the complicated, “mutually beneficial” relationship between politics and journalism, and politicians and journalists. He makes some good points.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-s-big-pay-day-hurts-all-australians-20180601-p4zix9.html
    The SMH editorial says that the imminent implementation of a national redress scheme for survivors of child sexual abuse is both a relief and a concern. It says the scheme is positive as far as it goes, but it clearly goes not far enough. It requires fundamental amendment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/child-abuse-redress-scheme-falls-short-20180602-h10w11.html
    A popular waterway near the defunct Hazelwood Power Station has been temporarily closed amid fears that its ageing dam walls could break and inundate nearby properties.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/hazelwood-pondage-closed-due-to-concerns-its-walls-could-burst-20180602-p4zj32.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Paul Zanetti with Porline’s perfect party.

    Some very good ones in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-3-2018-20180602-h10vwj.html

  12. Thanks BK
    for the Dawn Patrol and good morning. 🌄 (sunrise over mountain).

    I think the Guardian item is the link for the Adam Morton story.

    In a very long and detailed examination Adam Morton explains how the Australian government will announce it has spent up to $2.3bn over three years on a scheme that is a reckless waste of public money. Direct Action.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/03/up-in-smoke-what-did-taxpayers-get-for-their-2bn-emissions-fund

  13. Fried-the-planet cops crap but thanks BK and KaJay for the reminder about Grunt’s pissing billions up against the wall. Wasting our money and wasting the time we have to make changes.

    Hunt said early auction results were “stunning”. He looked forward to telling the United Nations meeting about how Australia had built “one of the most effective systems in the world for significantly reducing emissions” that would meet our recently announced 2030 target,………………………..found Australia was the only wealthy country where emissions from energy combustion were at a record high.

  14. How can this ever be justified except by people who believe everyone is evil and deceptive?
    Peter Dutton holds this view, too.

    Brian Mitchell MP‏ @BrianMitchellMP · 8h8 hours ago

    A 21 year old volunteer medic wearing a white uniform and with her hands in the air is shot dead by a highly trained soldier as she moved towards a wounded person. Don’t try to justify or rationalise this. It’s just wrong. Full stop.

  15. BK

    Haha, I never cease to be amazed at the random stuff that is rolling around in my brain. With all the information you process there must be heaps more.

    Best was it prompted a YouTube search. Finding that clip made me smile. Talk about memory lane.

  16. The money spent on Direct Action was not wasted. Recipients no doubt have much better property portfolios now – no doubt like those nice chaps who got given $400 million to save the Great Barrier Reef. Bad luck for the taxpayer though. Or any sacked staff in the ABC.

  17. An Age investigation has confirmed with senior church sources that at least 10 of the 78 people elected to the Liberals’ administrative bodies at the party’s April state council are Mormons.

    This amounts to nearly 13 per cent of all those now in key positions within the Liberals’ organisational wing, compared to just 0.3 per cent of all Australians who are members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints.

    Combined with conservative Catholics, evangelical Christians from churches such as Victory Faith Centre and City Builders, the religious right-wing now has unprecedented sway in Liberal Party politics.

    Next weekend, Paterson will be the keynote speaker at a Mormon church in Moorabbin to discuss protecting religious freedom.

    Some Liberals wryly note his new-found interest in Mormonism. He defends his presence – and long interest in the issue – while noting it will be a multi-faith event.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-religious-minority-seizing-power-in-the-liberal-party-20180601-p4ziyq.html

  18. Lizzie
    I was going to mention that incident of Israeli soldiers shooting the unarmed nurse dead too. Even in a full scale declared war that is a war crime. Murder, nothing less.

  19. lizzie

    Time for Israel to be put in the “pariah state” category. Here is a NYT video report with her a month ago. I wonder if she was deliberately targetted because she was getting an international profile ? Would not be surprised. Can’t have a photogenic sympathetic face being put on the Palestinian people’s struggle can we ? 🙁


    http://mondoweiss.net/2018/06/palestinian-israeli-wounded/

    The New York Times has published a superb video interview of al-Najjar from a month ago, highlighting her strength and commitment.

    https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000005932394/palestinian-medic-killed-at-gaza-protest.html?playlistId=100000001914099&region=video-grid&version=video-grid-thumbnail&contentCollection=Times+Video&contentPlacement=0&module=recent-videos&action=click&pgType=Multimedia&eventName=video-grid-click

  20. Socrates

    I have never held any prejudice against members of the Jewish faith as such, but these actions are intolerable.

  21. So how did Lucy Gichuhi go on the MP/Senator citizenship audit Turnbull promised us? When will he publish the results?

  22. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    I don’t think this item has been posted this morning. It just exemplifies the Turnbull/Morrison/Cormann efforts at sleight of hand to prove their point:

    The Turnbull government has hoovered up more than $2 billion in inactive superannuation accounts and claimed the revenue as its own, saying it does not trust the superannuation industry to reunite the accounts of millions of Australian workers.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-uses-millions-of-super-accounts-to-boost-budget-20180531-p4zilv.html

    Just another dodgy move from the Dodgy Brothers government. 🙂

  23. SKY is scrolling details of polling done by ReachTel on the tickertape, however it’s hard to work it all out.

    It reported a 3% increase in the PHON vote, but I can’t work out whether that was nationally or just one seat (they’re reporting both kinds of polling).

    I can’t see why PHON’s vote would go up at all, in present circumstances, so — to me — that would cast doubt on the reliability of the polling.

  24. lizzie @ #928 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 7:56 am

    How can this ever be justified except by people who believe everyone is evil and deceptive?
    Peter Dutton holds this view, too.

    Brian Mitchell MP‏ @BrianMitchellMP · 8h8 hours ago

    A 21 year old volunteer medic wearing a white uniform and with her hands in the air is shot dead by a highly trained soldier as she moved towards a wounded person. Don’t try to justify or rationalise this. It’s just wrong. Full stop.

    Would be nice to have some context for that. Gaza? USA? Syria? where?

  25. lizzie @ #935 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:11 am

    Socrates

    I have never held any prejudice against members of the Jewish faith as such, but these actions are intolerable.

    Part of the problem seems to me to be the identification of a faith with a nationality and to some extent ethnicity. Does this exist with any other faith?

  26. C@tmomma: I didn’t address your suggestion because it’s (IMO) a step backwards, not forwards. When dealing with entrenched disadvantage, any public policy has to tread a thin line between enabling self-destructive behaviours on one side, and denying agency to disadvantaged people on the other. Putting all poor people on a Mother-May-I Card is definitely not on that line.

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