BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

Nothing doing on voting intention in the latest poll aggregate update, but Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership ratings are continuing to look up.

The only new poll result this week, from Newspoll, landed right on the existing results for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records only the slightest of movements in this week’s update. The biggest of these is a 0.4% increase for One Nation, who were up two points in Newspoll. The only changes on the seat projection result from the fact that my hypothetical election is now one conducted using mini-redistributions, giving Labor extra seats in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, and the Liberals losing one in South Australia.

The voting intention readings don’t offer much excitement, but Newspoll’s latest leadership numbers further contribute to an impression of rising popularity (or at least, falling unpopularity) for Malcolm Turnbull, which seemed to kick in two to three months ago. Turnbull’s net approval trend rating is now well clear of Bill Shorten’s for the first time since early 2016, and he has more than recovered from a slight dip in his preferred prime minister rating over New Year.

Full results:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    The unity of Labor over the last 5 years only seems more amazing in the light of the tensions pulling One Nation asunder and the rifts in the Coalition threatening to break out in the same way.

    Good also to see The Greens actually working WITH Labor for once.

    What was that old ad adage? ‘Get with the strength’. 🙂

  2. The emperor remains by the grace of god! And time is running out for grace!
    Turnbull it seems is hated by more than less within and outside his own party. The dilemma as to when to have an election (or pull a hamstring) remains.
    The third world behaviour of elected members and senators changing colours mid term is worrying. The almost weekly self destruction of Turnbull’s team is pure pantomime. Whiteboards, foul language, Barnaby………
    Bill has proven very difficult to kill but they keep trying anyway. The banks have done Turnbull no favours. Turnbull’s mob are intent on sticking their hands into the superannuation bucket only to be found with sticky hands and mud on their faces.
    With house prices becoming stagnant the next election is probably a good election to lose.
    The question has to the achievements of the Abbott/Turnbull government remains unananswered.
    The man from snowy river perhaps!

  3. Morning all. Well Pauline you’ve done it again. To lose one Senator might be careless, but to lose all but one looks incompetent. Still, like Barnaby Joyce, it is never Pauline’s fault. She is the victim of betrayal. Again.

  4. Interesting discussion on UBI last night. I am not sure we are ready yet with unemployment still relatively low. However, as automation replaces jobs, even the skilled workers of today may not have jobs in the future. I think a UBI will be necessary. And I think businesses will need to contribute as profits increase on the backs of employees losing jobs. Why should companies benefit from automation with little or no investment in the development of that automation?

  5. A non political (but topical) question for the financiers – what are the laws on closing a bank account? After the RC Xanthippe and I want to move our accounts to a mutual society. It could not be more difficult! The time to do it alone would deter 99% of people. Can they really insist you must come in to meet them to close it (ANZ insist)? You can open an account over the phone or online if you have proof of ID. Why can’t you do the same to close one? Seriously, what is the law? I have searched for it and come up empty.

    Our banking regulation is a national disgrace. Prior Labor governments have nothing to be proud of here. I have said before ASIC and APRA must be abolished. If the ACCC is useless then it must go too. But we need a federal ICAC and Federal consumer protection with teeth NOW.

  6. Researchers from Columbia University’s Zuckerman Institute announced on Wednesday they had identified two specific regions in the brain that respond to sweet and bitter taste, and altered those responses in mice.

    The study published in Nature found the desire can be erased by manipulating neurons in the amygdala, the emotion centre of the brain.

    The findings point to new strategies and treatments to address eating disorders including obesity and anorexia nervosa, researchers say.

  7. Same job, different pay? At this point the concept of wage justice seems rather lost on the SDA.

    But sorry Cat they are a great union and my complaining yesterday about their influence over the Labor Party (especially here in SA) was just ignorance on my part. What insiders like you say must be true. The SDA are a spent force and it must be my imagination that there are still a dozen SDA backed Labor MPs and Senators in Federal parliament, never mind all the state ones including SA leader Malinaskaus. And SDA backed Labor MPs have certainly not sold out workers for thirty pieces of silver, as the catholics would say. Yet despite my ignorance, Wikipedia says this:

    “Labor figures estimate that there are 10-12 federal members of Parliament with some level of SDA link, including House of Representatives members Tony Burke, Nick Champion, Michael Danby, Kate Ellis and Amanda Rishworth and senators Catryna Bilyk, Jacinta Collins, Don Farrell, Chris Ketter, Deborah O’Neill and Helen Polley”.

  8. Morning all


    Saw your post from last thread.
    Leaving for Italy Sunday.
    Looks like I will be arriving to another political crisis which may see Italians heading to the polls again
    Fun and games

  9. Victoria

    Have a great time in Italy. The last time I was there they had a transport strike the day after I arrived. Fortunately the locals where I ended up were very accomodating. The place and people are still beautiful, though I would avoid much of the south.

  10. Socrates

    I am initially venturing to Rome, Naples and Sorrento. I really want to see the Amalfi coast.
    From there I will be heading north through to Florence etc.

  11. Cute attempt at an attack, Socrates, but no cigar. Oo er!, a large Union has links to some Labor politicians! Get out the tumbrils and off with their heads!

    Do you obsessively focus on the SDA for a reason, other than vendetta?

    I have now read the article you linked to, and may I say, that the content of the article belies the sensationalist heading that you are basing your unfounded spray on.

    May I put some quotes up for those who haven’t read it? I will let them decide if your vindictive spray against the SDA is justified (and I don’t care about the bitter vitriol you have unleashed against me for defending hard-working Union Delegates and a Union doing it’s best under oppressive wage circumstances for it’s Members, I’m used to ad feminems here as the basis for weak arguments):

    SDA National Secretary Gerard Dwyer said the in-principle agreement would be finalised and put to employees to vote on in the next few months.
    He said the new proposed EBA would shift to a penalty rates structure including full Award penalties while protecting existing Kmart workers and above award rates of pay for all employees.
    Mr Dwyer said all workers would be entitled to full award penalty rates, provide pay rises for all, a $450 bonus payment, two days paid domestic violence leave and preserve above award conditions.

    “All Kmart workers would receive annual pay increases and full-time workers would receive a $450 bonus with a pro rata amount paid to casual and part time staff.”
    Mr Dwyer said the new agreement would maintain hard-won above award conditions including rostering provisions, voluntary work on public holidays, additional public holidays and picnic days in some states and better leave provisions.
    “The pay rates of existing Kmart workers have been preserved in this agreement, and these employees, whose base rate is higher, will receive 1.75% per annum increases with new employees on the new pay structure receiving the annual Fair Work Commission’s increases,” Mr Dwyer said.

    So, hard-won Conditions the same, and preserved for ALL K Mart employees, with the only ‘negative’ being that new employees will only get FWA-mandated increases in pay.

    When other employees in Australia are suffering from Wage Theft, unpaid Ghost Hours, Superannuation theft, no Long Service Leave, no Sick Pay, no Annual Leave, Labour Hire companies’ exploitation of them, Wage and Conditions CUTS, Split Shifts, Outsourcing of jobs to overseas countries or to Visa Workers, and the list goes on.

    Get a grip, Socrates! Your hatred of the SDA and the Labor politicians it has links to, but not control over, is severely clouding your judgement.

  12. Just now we have the crazed RW in a panic about China. Fair enough

    But when will the panic about Indonesia reignite. This new deal between Indonesia and India is probably significant.

    Now it seems probably not co-incidental that Johnny Howard has emerged from the woodwork on the China issues (Is he planning a Mahatir?)

    However there arepsibbly a number of factors that should make Australia a tad concerned about this new alliance.

    1. Indonesia is much closer to Australia than China

    2. Indonesia and Australia have remarkably few links given the geographic proximity and the size of the population

    3. Indonesia is a Muslim country with little love for Australia

    4. Indonesia has always has a powerful and dominant and competent military

    5. Indonesia’s military strength is the same or a tad stronger than ours.

    6. Joined at the hip with India (possibly also Pakistan????????) it would be a very pwerful alliance on Australia’s borders.

    7. Only a person wrapped in a blanket would not understand that the days of the US being the world’s policeman are over and that therefore our big brother has disappeared (or will soonish).

    8. Bizarre as it may seem now (and it does) might we in Australia start looking to China as a protector against aggressive neighbours?

  13. fess

    Of course this is what Trump is doing. It isnt going to work. I still see Trump ending up in a mental facility. He is just doing bravado now. Deep down he knows the jig is up

  14. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This collection has taken quite a bit of time to compile today.

    In a cracker of a contribution Jenna Price lists the MPs that make Turnbull cry the most.
    In a similar article Michelle Grattan gives us the winners and losers on the tests of judgement, temperament and character.
    Michael Koziol reports that the Turnbull government’s proposed lifetime cap on student debt would hit up to 30,000 current postgraduate students who will need to pay upfront or look for work rather than finish studying, according to new analysis.
    Fears of an escalating global trade war have soared after Donald Trump chose not to spare Europe, Mexico and Canada from his new steel and aluminium tariffs. The decision today to impose the tariffs on these key US allies sparked fury and threats of retaliation and also rattled global markets.
    Labor is actively considering a plan to allow the Turnbull government to legislate its entire $140 billion income tax cut within weeks in a political strategy to fight the policy at the next election without halting tax relief that is due to start on July 1. The approach is a live option within the Labor shadow cabinet as Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and his colleagues harden their objections to key aspects of the government plan while offering more generous tax cuts over the next four years.
    Phil Coorey writes that the ROC is a partisan institution that won’t survive Labor.
    John McDuling writes that it’s early days, but Amazon may have misread the Australian market.
    An offshore hacker’s onslaught of 1800 calls tripped up Telstra’s triple zero services, leaving some Australians without a call back.
    Eryk Bagshaw reports that the Turnbull government has hoovered up more than $2 billion in inactive superannuation accounts and claimed the revenue as its own, saying it does not trust the superannuation industry to reunite the accounts of millions of Australian workers. This decision props up the wafer thin $2.2 billion surplus the government has vowed to deliver in 2019-20, despite the expectation that the majority of the money will flow back into the active funds of workers.
    Phil Coorey reports that federal Labor is set to reschedule its National Conference for the week before Christmas, after the decision to hold the super Saturday of five byelections on July 28 forced it to move the event.
    David Crowe tells us about Porline’s teary interview.
    Michelle Grattan on the tearful tirade.
    The AFR’s Patrick Durkin was at the banking royal commission yesterday and he identified a “lightbulb moment” from Commissioner Ken Hayne.
    ZTE, the Chinese telecommunications company bidding for major contracts in Australia, and at the centre of Donald Trump’s trade war with Beijing, was established partly as a front for military intelligence and has been linked to corruption in 18 countries, according to explosive court documents filed in the US.
    Tony Wright has a dig at Greg Hunt’s bedside manner.
    Denmark has banned the wearing of face veils in public, joining France and other parts of Europe in outlawing the burqa and the niqab worn by some Muslim women.
    More from David Crowe as he says tougher foreign interference laws can’t come soon enough.
    John Silvester lifts the lid on quota-driven police breath testing of drivers.
    An excellent contribution from Catherine McGregor on the Kennedys and how the Republicans have set up and used the wedge that has dominated US politics for 50 years.
    The Letters to the SMH editor are strong in saying the cabinet needs more women but could do without Cash. And Barnaby gets a serve, too,
    A worthwhile article from Richo on the government’s obsession with the Shorten-CFMEU link and how Cash is performing.
    Meanwhile the former ACTU president Jennie George urged Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s union to release documents that could prove a $100,000 donation to GetUp! was properly authorised.
    Labor has agreed to support a Greens push to abolish a unique exemption for 1,498 private companies associated with Australia’s business elite that has allowed the companies to avoid sharing their financial reports with ASIC.
    Greg Jericho explains how the government has sought to win the fight over its proposed tax cuts by suggesting it is really a tax cut for middle income earners. But despite assistance from some pretty dire reporting, Treasury’s own figures highlight just how greatly the tax cut is weighted towards high-income earners and those earning far more than the incomes of middle Australia.
    Mainland Chinese private education providers are growing excited as they gear up for the expected lifting later this year of birth limits in mainland China. In Australia, private education providers, including those in the tutoring industry, must be rubbing their hands together in anticipation too. International educationist Dr William McKieth explains.
    Barnaby Joyce’s decision to accept money – reportedly $150,000 – from Channel Seven in return for giving an interview about his relationship with his former staffer Vikki Campion, calls into question his fitness for public office.,11557
    The SMH editorial looks at Porter’s announcement on Family Law and says that tinkering with the courts is a risk business.
    Trump’s hard-right judges will do lasting damage to America.
    The Climate Change Authority says the post of Windfarm Commissioner, set up under the former prime minister Tony Abbott to handle complaints and investigate potential risks, has actually facilitated the uptake of wind energy by helping to address community concerns.
    Australia’s Constitution is archaic, irrelevant and in dire need of a more modern update, writes Dr Klaas Woldring.,11553
    A push to “modernise” the government’s workforce with a strategy formed by the public service commission has drawn fire from the main public sector union, which has called it a front for more insecure work and contractors. Surely this government wouldn’t do anything like that!
    Almost one in five public school parents have objected to religious views being shared with their children through school chaplains, a review has found. Secular groups are saying the report is further proof of the occurrence of proselytising.
    The waiting times for several key Centrelink phone lines have blown out, although the number of busy signals has dropped dramatically, new figures show.
    AUSTRALIA’S top two selling cars — the Toyota HiLux and Ford Ranger, and most other cars in the Top 20 — would go up in price if the Federal Government adopts stricter carbon-emissions standards.
    Labor senator Doug Cameron yesterday labelled Liberal counterpart Jim Molan a “precious petal’’ after the retired major general called on him to apologise for “disrespectful’’ remarks about the military.
    Author James Adonis explores the role of democracy in the workplace.

    Cartoon Corner

    Mark David and the NBN.

    Peter Broelman an victimhood within the Coalition.

    Zanetti’s got Barnaby all worked out.

    John Shakespeare bursts Cash out from behind the whiteboard.

    Matt Golding on the unearthing of things.

    Mark Knight gives Trump a serve.

    Roy Taylor on Barnaby.

    Jon Kudelka with a new health funding model.
    A brilliant effort from David Pope today!
    And plenty of good ones in here – including a lot from Matt Golding.

  15. Socrates
    You are spot on. The young people I associate with working in the retail sector are ‘required’ to join the SDA yet no voice in the union. Their social and political values are very different to those espoused by the likes of SDA based politicians.
    As a fellow South Australian with the exception of Senator Wong we are not served well by our Senators, not that there are many ALP Senators. From my memory and involvement and membership of the ALP the current number is the lowest I can think of dating back to 1969.

  16. C@tmomma

    So “New employees will be on a lower base rate of pay ” and their ‘reward’ as retail workers ? Getting retail worker award payments for over time. Does not sound a very good deal for new workers. .

  17. soc

    Firstly, note the ‘some links’ statement. What does that mean? That an MP once shared a currant bun and a cup of coffee with someone from the SDA?

    Secondly, your (dodgy) source also seems to reinforce the idea that it’s largely a SA issue. The Labor party is, like most parties, split into state divisions, which are basically autonomous. WA is wildly different, for example, in the way it functions (even on very basic levels) to Victoria. NSW is different again.

    Thirdly, the numbers aren’t that threatening. 12 members in a caucus of over one hundred is insignificant.

    Jacinta Collins has been in Fed Parl as long as I can remember. I’d rate her as ‘mostly harmless’.

    **Sorry to Soc, I accused him of a mistruth, and have had to edit the post to remove it.

  18. Barnarby Joyce nest eggs from tell-apl interviews, One Nation shenanigans on Sky, Michaelea Cash ignoring legitimate questions, and overseas, Trump dishing out pardons willy-nilly to his Reality TV mates…

    Throw in the rotten weather and it’s a pretty depressing Friday morning.

  19. Victoria says:
    Friday, June 1, 2018 at 7:54 am

    I am initially venturing to Rome, Naples and Sorrento. I really want to see the Amalfi coast.
    Frm there I will be heading north through to Florence etc.

    The Amalfi coast so beautiful you will love it also Sorrento and Blue Grotto. Rome make sure you go to toilet before you set out, or find a restaurant with one,don’ t go near public ones. Be careful of gypsies, pick pockets, will throw their babies at you to divert you. But David in Florence incredible

    .enjoy your self you will

  20. mari

    thanks for the advice on toilets! have been warned about the gypsies and pickpockets.
    So I have invested in an anti theft bag and money wallet!

  21. poroti @ #25 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:16 am


    So “New employees will be on a lower base rate of pay ” and their ‘reward’ as retail workers ? Getting retail worker award payments for over time. Does not sound a very good deal for new workers. .

    Yes, poroti, and if you ignore every other point I made about how well the Union has done under the prevailing circumstances in Australia right now, I guess you’re right. But it’s a bit of a Pyrrhic victory, don’t you think?

  22. Mari
    Classic post. Three gypsies in a row ‘found’ a bejewelled ring on the ground just in front of me in the space of 15 minutes.
    I was polite to the first two but told the third one to fuck off.

  23. What is with PHONyies and its weird and despicable senators.
    Rod Culleton(WA), Malcolm Roberts(QLD), Fraser Anning(QLD), Brian Burston(NSW) and to top it all of them is their “so called” leader PHanson( QLD).
    All of them have no scruples, no decency, no sense of service and all of them were/ are in news for something bad.

  24. Boerwar

    Sunday afternoon. Not really looking forward to being on a plane for countless hours though. Wish teleportation was a thing. lol!

  25. it really is cray cray

    Mark Hamill

    Verified account

    7h7 hours ago
    More Mark Hamill Retweeted Donald J. Trump
    Not that it matters but you’re on tape telling @LesterHoltNBC that Russia is EXACTLY why you fired @Comey! Who are we to believe- you or our lyin’ eyes?Mark Hamill added,
    Donald J. Trump
    Verified account

    Not that it matters but I never fired James Comey because of Russia! The Corrupt Mainstream Media loves to keep pushing that narrative, but they know it is not true!
    158 replies 845 retweets 5,190 likes
    Reply 158 Retweet 845 Like 5.2K

  26. We know from the polls the public don’t warm to the opposition leader. So far, however, Labor’s two-party lead indicates people haven’t concluded that he is not fit to rule. Shorten hasn’t failed the character test, but he hasn’t entirely passed it yet, either.

    Grattan makes good sense on Barnaby and Hunt, but falls back on the old theme for Shorten, always pushed by the media. Yet, compared with so many on the Coalition side, Shorten is exemplary.

  27. Victoria@7:27am
    Bon voyage
    Isn’t it true that Italy has/had largest turnover of PMs since Independence…. woops WW2?
    Can you het goss on Sonia Gandhi?

  28. Victoria says: Friday, June 1, 2018 at 8:32 am


    Have a safe and enjoyable time in Italy Victoria !!!

  29. Secondly, your (dodgy) source also seems to reinforce the idea that it’s largely a SA issue.

    Which is a point I made yesterday. Also the Polleys in Tasmania, and yes, Jacinta Collins from Victoria are devout Catholics. But you are correct again, zoomster, in that they have had very little effect on current Labor policy. I have also detailed how Senator Deborah O’Neill from NSW, a friend of mine for over 15 years, is able to approach her work as a mature adult, not some Catholic ideological warrior. Basically her Catholicism revolves around Social Justice issues, as opposed to the other issues that hit the headlines.

    Basically, I just wish Socrates would get a bit of perspective on the issue.

  30. Tony Abbott was demonstrably unfit to govern. All the press gallery knew it. But they let him sail through.

  31. lizzie @ #38 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:40 am

    We know from the polls the public don’t warm to the opposition leader. So far, however, Labor’s two-party lead indicates people haven’t concluded that he is not fit to rule. Shorten hasn’t failed the character test, but he hasn’t entirely passed it yet, either.

    Grattan makes good sense on Barnaby and Hunt, but falls back on the old theme for Shorten, always pushed by the media. Yet, compared with so many on the Coalition side, Shorten is exemplary.

    At the bottom of the Grattan on Friday blurb we are treated to:-

    Drum roll – Ta Da ❗

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