The only new poll result this week, from Newspoll, landed right on the existing results for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records only the slightest of movements in this week’s update. The biggest of these is a 0.4% increase for One Nation, who were up two points in Newspoll. The only changes on the seat projection result from the fact that my hypothetical election is now one conducted using mini-redistributions, giving Labor extra seats in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, and the Liberals losing one in South Australia.
The voting intention readings don’t offer much excitement, but Newspoll’s latest leadership numbers further contribute to an impression of rising popularity (or at least, falling unpopularity) for Malcolm Turnbull, which seemed to kick in two to three months ago. Turnbull’s net approval trend rating is now well clear of Bill Shorten’s for the first time since early 2016, and he has more than recovered from a slight dip in his preferred prime minister rating over New Year.
Full results:
DTT@8:08am
Are you criticising Indonesia?
What is the deal between Indonesia and India that threatens Australia?
Zoomster@8:46am
In what context are you stating the obvious?
It doesn’t get any better for the government as it tries to work out a way to do nothing about the horror that is live sheep exports.
https://thewest.com.au/business/agriculture/perth-based-exporter-emanuel-exports-faces-criminal-investigation-ng-b88852349z
The numbers are probably there to legislate for an end to shipments but Turnbull is powerless in the face of Nat support for this evil trade.
CNN’s WH correspondent Jim Acosta has been touring Trump rallies. This is his latest post which is a scary insight into what Trump has brought out in the country. The photo speaks volumes – who would’ve thought the media would need a protection cage in a supposedly free democratic society like the US?
https://www.instagram.com/p/BjcuYc4FIqU/?hl=en&taken-by=jimacosta
Despite thousands of questions to Bill Shorten, Royal Commissions, taunts, tirades, allegations of being both too strong a workers’ advocate and too weak, Grattan’s line now is that he still has something to prove to get hers’ and the CPG’s tick of approval.
Meanwhile, on the other side of politics, we have a PM who hides his money in the Caymans, has reversed just about every political and ethical position he has ever taken, whose party is at war with itself, but no questions are asked of him, and little or no responsibility is expected of him for the actions of his ministers.
NHL says:
Friday, June 1, 2018 at 8:12 am
Socrates
You are spot on. The young people I associate with working in the retail sector are ‘required’ to join the SDA yet no voice in the union.
…
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What prevents them from having a voice in the union? Are there real obstacles or just apathy?
I saw some of the exchanges between Dougie and Molan.
Dougie certainly has Molan’s number and knows which buttons to push to get a reaction.
Molan does seem to have an issue settling into civilian life, especially when people don’t jump just because he says so!
Dougie’s comments are a statement of fact regarding Molan and I don’t see how they can reflect on anyone else or the military in general.
“Precious petal?”
Yep, Molan probably is!!! 🙂
https://outline.com/wqgg64
William – I think you mean Labor losing one in SA.
Wakefield @ #60 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 6:16 am
No, in a mini redistribution the Libs would lose 1 as the 2 large country electorates would be combined to form one electorate.
The Libs currently hold both of these, so there will be one less Lib. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/01/leftwingers-launch-campaign-to-shift-labour-position-on-brexit
About time.
I’m almost convinced that the people who vote for Turnbull as “the best PM” are the ones who only read the headlines and do not follow politics at all. We know that many are supremely disinterested and only wake up the day before the election.
“We know that many are supremely disinterested and only wake up the day before the election.”
I think you are too generous Lizzie. Many never wake up.
booleanbach
Too much of a good thing?
It generally ended up not going to well for the original Sybarites, either.
IMO humanity faces three broad scenarios (with considerable potential for mix and match for specific crops):
1. Eat foods based on whole plants and whole animals.
2. Eat cultured foods out of vats.
3. Eat a mixture of both, but mostly based temperature controlled growth houses organised around (virtually) limitless desal combined, (virtually) limitless ultra cheap renewables plus (virtually limitless( varieties of GMOs.
Confessions
Next step will be brown shirts, one imagines.
briefly
Not before time, indeed. The huge damage done to Britain’s sovereign risk profile will take years to undo.
Ven @ #37 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 5:29 am
I disagree.
When you stand for nothing but yourself, what else would you expect!!! 🙂
Good Morning
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-01/criminal-cartel-charges-expected-to-be-laid-against-anz-accc/9823982
lizzie @ #68 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 6:56 am
Smart kid!
I’d never thought of it in that way. 🙂
I must say our venerable West newspaper – read by a shrinking number of people and mainly those over 50 – never ceases to make me smile.
In an attempt to flog company tax cuts – “Senate must back business tax cuts to boost business” in its editorial, it manages to blame Shorten for playing his “politics-of-envy card” while coming our with this gem………….”The benefits of the proposed company tax are so obvious it beggars belief that the numbers in the Senate are so tight.”
Now, I do not blame the West for wearing its pro-business, pro-LNP bias on its sleeve, as most in WA know where its heart lies. However, to offer not one scintilla of evidence that the “benefits are so obvious” – which most of the electorate do not buy………is pretty weak.
The only saving grace is not only are fewer in WA reading/ paying any attention to the West, but its editorial is probably read only by its most rabid supporters or the likes of me who recognise a good joke from time to time. Mind you, it could be worse. Since the local Sunday Times has been taken into the family of the West, it must now rank as about the worst metro paper in the whole of Oz.
Boer – this was particularly enlightening:
But since 2014, the state has had a law against depleting aquifers, and farmers soon won’t be able to take out more water than goes in.
That policy alarms growers, especially since they can no longer depend on snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.
When the aquifer is totally depleted, where do they think the water will come from then?
Sound very much like many of the Murray-Darling irrigators to me.
Tricot @ #72 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:05 am
That’s a very big call and I excuse you due to your isolation out West.
If you ever have the misfortune to glance at the Advertiser or Sunday Mail in SA you may wish to adjust your view.
I’m sure there’s other candidates around the place. 🙂
The Oz stirring?
Zoomster
I do not think that 11/100 is minor since it is more than 10% and in fact it is 11/95 which is closer to 12%. Moeover just two years ago when both Kate Ellis and Bullock were in parliament the percentage was mch higher.
Morever what you seem to ignore is that the SDA is a major (possibly dominant ) force within the Right faction of the ALP. Thus while those directly dependent on the SDA may be only 10-15% the influence over one of the major factions is much greater. Like it or not others who are firmly part of that right faction including Shorten and the others in the AWU etc are closely tied to the SDA.
Now i do recognise that those links seem to be weakening, or perhaps more that the right wing faction is itself moving to be more in keeping with the public mood.
Indeed here in Qld they are calling themselves “progressive” which is to put it mildly, amusing. However they include Ketter who opposed SSM.
I know you believe sincerely that you are independent but probably not quite realising that you almost always spout the recent talking points as issued by the ALP Right wing faction, which if not controlled is heavily influenced by the SDA. Remember that Shorten himslef springs from the iron workers which was itself one of the DLP unions along with the SDA.
I have noted this before but somehow I see the battles of the 1950s beingrecycled in the ALP. The change is that many of the NCC types (Bullock and Abbott) are also with the Liberal party, but many of their friends remain in the ALP (or rejoined once they let the DLP back in)
More on wage theft in franchise businesses
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/01/franchisees-advised-to-steal-workers-wages-inquiry-hears
The silence from the government on this is deafening.
But with their mate Bilson still spruiking for the Franchise Council I guess it is par for the course.
I see that some dab hands have decided to actually try to come to taws on the UBI which is more than we can say for Di Natale and his brainfart stunt announcement.
Social welfare spend in the federal budget is around $160 billion a year, or around $660 billion over forward estimates.
Differential cost between spending recouped and UBI?
There are around 13,000,000 people in employment.
UBI @ $25,000,000 for 13 million employed people = $325 billion a year, or around $1.3 trillion over forward estimates.
Total gross cost of UBI for 20,000,000 adults @ $25,000 per annum = $500 billion per annum equals $2 trillion over forward estimates.
Less total cost of current social security outlays. $166 billion per annum equals $640 billion over forward estimates.
Let us assume that there are 5,000,000 people under the age of 18. How will these be fitted in? They are not adults so they will not get the UBI.
Let’s say that each child will earn a UBI holder an additional $5,000 per annum. Add $100 billion over forward estimates.
I see that some people were playing with restricting UBI to selected people. Then it is no longer a UBI and defeats the purpose.
$2 trillion gross (plus $100 billion for the kids over forward estimates) less $640 billion current spending on social security forgone equals $1.46 trillion ADDITIONAL funding in revenue that Di Natale has to find to support his UBI over forward estimates.
Total annual Federal revenue ATM is around $380 billion or $1.52 trillion over forward estimates.
The UBI GROSS (@25,000 per annum) alone is bigger than current TOTAL revenue by $.48 trillion over forward estimates.
Then, of course, there is Di Natale’s People’s Bank which will need capitalization of several $trillion.
Those Numpty Money printing presses are going to be very, very busy.
The Oz is desperate.Trying anything and everything to undermine Shorten.
It’s getting to the stage that any rules relating to franchisers needs to be thrown out and rewritten from scratch.
The whole business model seems fundamentally flawed!!! 🙁
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/01/franchisees-advised-to-steal-workers-wages-inquiry-hears
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/31/avoiding-meat-and-dairy-is-single-biggest-way-to-reduce-your-impact-on-earth?CMP=share_btn_tw
daretotread. @ #76 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:18 am
Where’s Kate gone?
Ven @ #51 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:56 am
Ven
This morning there was news of a military “alliance” between Indonesia and India. At this point it is welcomed by Australia., but of course it is aimed at opposing China.
No I was NOT criticising Indonesia and if you read my post carefully you would have seen that. However I was stating that which should be obvious, which is that there is not a lot of goodwill between our nations. Sure we are mostly polite to one another, but I really do NOT see much genuine goodwill. In part that may well be our fault but it is still reality.
Moreover I was also trying to point out that which should also be obvious. A powerful nation right on your own borders is an issue to take note of. That does NOT mean specific actions etc but it does not mean close your eyes and hope it will all go away.
The only criticism I have of Indonesia is the possible role of its military in government. This was very much reduced over the last 20 years but possibly may now be re-emerging. obviously this is a matter of some concern.
My point (this in fact may be over egging it – my speculation) was that we may find ourselves looking to China for a friend should Indonesia return to its militarisic dictatorship that existed for most of the post WWII years.
Victoria @ #36 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 6:32 am
You have not lived until you’ve flown international business or first class.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/anz-bank-facing-cartel-prosecution-20180601-p4zisr.html
dtt,
You talk like Indonesia is a united country.
In reality it is one the most diverse Countries in the World consisting of more than 700 different ethnic groups and over 13,000 islands. 🙂
Barney in Go Dau @ #72 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 8:14 am
A discussion about which Australian newspaper is the worse is on a par with standing above an open septic tank and debating which piece of shit floating around in it stinks the worst.
”The benefits of the proposed company tax are so obvious it beggars belief that the numbers in the Senate are so tight.”
The West looks like it has made a statement of truth. Just that the truth is entirely the opposite of what they believe. The benefits are so obviously as close to nil as makes no odds it really does beggar belief any half intelligent Senator would want to have their names associated with them…
… oh I think I’ve found the problem
booleanbach
Yep. There is a major global overhang in irrigated food production based on depleting ground water.
There are many answers to your question but the common theme is cost/price. Farmers can do anything you want provided the price is high enough.
There are some trends converging here.
The first is that desal efficiency is increasing by leaps and bounds.
The second is that the cost of the main input, energy, is collapsing as renewables technologies advance.
Third is efficiencies arising from GMOs are increasing.
Currently, most water used is wasted because most of the water goes into maintaining the whole plant and the whole animal.
Cultured vat foods drastically reduce water needs per calory.
grimace @ #82 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 10:33 am
Maybe if you’re an accountant living the beige lifestyle 🙂
I’ve done both, a lot. It’s only “living” in comparison to economy, which for long haul flights is like an actual living death.
Hope you have a great time in Italy, Victoria. My favourite place on Earth, if I am ever able to*, I will retire there.
*not going to happen
grimace @ #84 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:33 am
I’ve had one experience of being upgraded to business class and it’s the one thing I would change about how I travel if money wasn’t an issue! 🙂
lizzie
The general point is right but there is a significant problem with the analysis. A huge area of (beef) cattle grazing country can be used for nothing else. There is no substitution effect.
OTOH, practically all dairy country except the very steepest bits, can be used for other agriculture and there would be a massive positive direct substitution effect in eliminating the world’s friesians, etc, etc, etc.
All that said, 37% of the world’s protein is an awful lot of protein.
Italy is great Vic, enjoy yourself!
My suggestion for Victoria would be to buy your own business jet and write down the costs to the company as a tax deduction.
The big pluses are that you can design the interior any which way you want, land at the airports of your choice, and be whisked through the back door for passport and customs controls.
Plus, you might even get a frisson of pleasure out of the thought that you are swanning around like this while your victims are struggling on Newstart and have to walk.
victoria
If you are going to Venice, read up on the scams before you go. They are bloody horrible.
In relation to the UBI, I wonder how many of the people that currently work in the support services, such as centrelink, disabled services and those other areas that support all the allowances and support available, will take to becoming unemployed with the removal of their employment and the introduction of a UBI which would be expected to make their jobs redundant.
I am sure they will relish the opportunity to go from a wage of $50 – 70K on average to a UBI of $25, 000 when their job disappears.
How many currently work for the social services, somewhere around 36,000 at the moment isn’t it, and how many of those would still have jobs once the many social services disappear with the introduction of the UBI.
I suppose another great cut in the public service would be one way the government could sell the notion of the UBI.
I strongly believe that there needs to be a change in society, more trades and employment are disappearing and are likely to disappear but the notion that the UBI will cure all these ills is ill-conceived.
A lot more needs to be done to prepare Australia for equality of life and support across the whole of society.
Prior to the UBI the tax system needs to be adjusted to support such a scheme, the value of employment as measured as the value a person has in society has to change, the worth of charity, artistic, volunteer work needs to be looked at and a whole lot more.
We cannot just start giving money to people without looking at all of these things first.
grimace @ #82 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 10:33 am
Just had three flights to the US and back (six in total) in 5 days, but the best I could do was Delta ‘Comfort +’, a kind of premium economy where you get a bit of extra legroom and a few other extras. Worth it if your business isn’t paying…
For Victoria:
Boerwar
I’ve just been looking up the advance in brain size in early humans with the addition of meat to the diet. However, modern studies of nutrition (circa 1960?) have determined that a veg diet is perfectly adequate with the right combination of foods.
So we can all relax!!
Murdoch is really scraping the bottom of the barrel for news – this is lead article on the Oz front page:
Grimace, auto crat, boerwar and citizen
Business or first class is but a dream for me.
I am going to Venice on last leg of trip. Will check out scams.
Italy by all accounts is a great place to visit but unless cashed up, not so good to live.
Good to hear that the political scene may stabilise for a while at least