BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor

Nothing doing on voting intention in the latest poll aggregate update, but Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership ratings are continuing to look up.

The only new poll result this week, from Newspoll, landed right on the existing results for BludgerTrack, which accordingly records only the slightest of movements in this week’s update. The biggest of these is a 0.4% increase for One Nation, who were up two points in Newspoll. The only changes on the seat projection result from the fact that my hypothetical election is now one conducted using mini-redistributions, giving Labor extra seats in Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory, and the Liberals losing one in South Australia.

The voting intention readings don’t offer much excitement, but Newspoll’s latest leadership numbers further contribute to an impression of rising popularity (or at least, falling unpopularity) for Malcolm Turnbull, which seemed to kick in two to three months ago. Turnbull’s net approval trend rating is now well clear of Bill Shorten’s for the first time since early 2016, and he has more than recovered from a slight dip in his preferred prime minister rating over New Year.

Full results:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.8-48.2 to Labor”

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  2. BK

    Very different to the rules that saw exciting games plus unpredictability as to who would win in the decade Sydney The Eagles Lions etc won Premierships

    Its not all down to avoiding concussions rules either.

    Those were fast paced skilled games.

  4. Boer….I try to let the forms and colours interact; to be responsive to the evolution and learn from it. There are moments of resolution and decision.

    Zoom….yes, I love the sense in which convention both demands attention and can be discarded. I mean the conventions of perspective and composition…and their displacement. I am getting better at employing both and using the emotional power of colour. I am very tempted to rebel against convention…and then to return to it…to develop different idioms.

    It’s also possible to be whimsical…to be lighthearted…this is very beneficial for me.

    I’ve created many more than 100 images in recent months…post the better or more satisfying ones for the amusement of my friends…they are invariably very kind to me.

    C@t….you’re also very kind…I am encouraged by my friends and hope to give them something back…:)

  7. guytaur @ #464 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:45 pm

    Breaking News is Spains Prime Minister has admitted defeat.

    Thing I can’t understand is, when these guys know in their heart of hearts that the jig is up, they know they are guilty of corruption, because, well, they did it, they were johnny-on-the-spot when it was going on, and they know that it is of such an egregious nature that eventually the whole house of cards will come a tumbling down, do they resist all reasonable attempts to get them to step down!?! Why do they have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of office!?! Do they really think they have the electorate so mesmerised, and the judiciary so tamed, that they can just ride it out!?!

    They must. 🙁

  8. poroti:

    Apparently that’s his nickname! I thought it was just a jibe or attack on him, but he seems to wear it with pride.

  9. Cat

    Agreed.

    I think its because they got away with it so much they think they can just cintinue.

    Locally we have the examples of “Chopper” Bronny.
    Joyce Sinodinos Cash to name a few.

  10. I’m in Fremantle tonight and later going to hear an old friend performing his own work; hip hop meets the blues…..50-odd years of guitar and voice and composition layered with the energy of much younger musicians…such clarity in their declarations…their creation of new forms…

  11. Briefly

    Enjoy the night. Australian musicians are breaking new ground with such fusions.

    Beats the hell out of the auto tune pop stuff.

    I am speaking as a fan of pop too.

  12. briefly @ #510 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 6:53 pm

    I’m in Fremantle tonight and later going to hear an old friend performing his own work; hip hop meets the blues…..50-odd years of guitar and voice and composition layered with the energy of much younger musicians…such clarity in their declarations…their creation of new forms…

    Enjoy! I’ve heard a few fusion hip hop/ blues performances lately and even though I loathe hip hop, was quite impressed.

  15. I was in England 8 years ago when they were knocked out of the World Cup. It was the same as Australia was after the ball tampering but even worse and for longer. I have never seen a more glum country.

  17. Fremantle is roomy at the personal level. I mean, there is plenty of elbow room on the streets and in the cafes, the bars and restaurants; there are all kinds and shapes here. It is not a straight town, not by any means….i would like to settle here…at last

  19. Tony Windsor
    ‏ @TonyHWindsor
    12m12 minutes ago

    The bullying of the ABC was successful in preventing the real Joyce story from being investigated …

  20. Guytaur and confessions…live music/new music is still doing well here. I have some friends who have been performing since the 1970’s….one since the 60’s… and they grow more accomplished and nuanced as time passes. There are also some contemporary musicians who are so explosive and vibrant it’s hard to believe…lots to enjoy

  22. imacca @ #505 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 5:48 pm

    So does anyone know what the Labor Lie is that Fifield has complained about??

    That the Government set the by-election date.

    It seems that the Liberal Party are the only people in Australia who don’t concede this point, even the CPG seem to be in agreement! 🙂

  29. briefly @ #520 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:13 pm

    Guytaur and confessions…live music/new music is still doing well here. I have some friends who have been performing since the 1970’s….one since the 60’s… and they grow more accomplished and nuanced as time passes. There are also some contemporary musicians who are so explosive and vibrant it’s hard to believe…lots to enjoy

    One of my favourite Perth musos is blues guitarist Dave Hole.

    He’d been playing around the pub circuit in Perth for years. Obviously making a reasonable living from it and living the life he wanted.

    One weekend in the early 90’s when one of the US navy’s ships was docked at Fremantle, a young sailor rang the What’s On In Perth hotline that informs visiting sailors of the best places to go while they’re in town. He told them he was interested in guitar based blues/rock, so they recommended he go and see a Dave Hole show.

    Anyway, off he went and was well impressed by the show, and bought a t-shirt as well as a couple of cassettes (remember them?) with recordings of original songs by Hole. He sent the cassettes to his brother in the States.

    As it transpired his brother was at the time the editor of the influential Guitar Player magazine. He couldn’t get over the unique sound that Hole managed to get playing slide guitar. His brother (the sailor) didn’t divulge the secret of how Hole managed to get that sound. It’s actually very simple, he plays it over the neck, rather than the traditional method.

    Next thing you know, the editor brother has booked a flight from the US to Perth to see in person what was going on. Long story short, after years of playing around Perth pubs being largely ignored by general rock and pop audiences, within a few short months this unknown blues player is on the front cover of Guitar Player, and next he got awarded the support slot on Gary Moore’s tour of Europe. This was when Moore had an album out called Still Got The Blues which was a worldwide smash hit.

    So there you have it. After years of doing his own thing, all of a sudden he’s an overnight sensation. Nowadays he gets invited to play at blues festivals all over the US, Canada, Britain and Europe.

    A real “Local lad makes good” story.

    Here’s Mr Hole performing live in Berne, Switzerland in 2009 showing his unique approach to playing slide guitar:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SThSL3OJ1Eo

  30. Dan Gulberry @ #529 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 9:37 pm

    briefly @ #520 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:13 pm

    Guytaur and confessions…live music/new music is still doing well here. I have some friends who have been performing since the 1970’s….one since the 60’s… and they grow more accomplished and nuanced as time passes. There are also some contemporary musicians who are so explosive and vibrant it’s hard to believe…lots to enjoy

    One of my favourite Perth musos is blues guitarist Dave Hole.

    He’d been playing around the pub circuit in Perth for years. Obviously making a reasonable living from it and living the life he wanted.
    —

    I have a Dave Hole CD and he was playing in Melbourne recently.
    He was interviewed on ABC Melbourne by Brian Nankervis and he played a bit.

  31. “So does anyone know what the Labor Lie is that Fifield has complained about??

    The Truth according to Fifield:

    “These claims are false. The prime minister did not decide the date for the byelections. The date for the byelections was set by the Speaker, in accordance with the constitution, and acting on the advice of the independent AEC.”

    The appropriate response on the part of the ABC should be a combination of:

    1. Derisive laughter
    2. What, you think our audience is stupid?
    3. Not even the Australian or the Daily Telegraph would publish that crap and expect to be believed.
    4. Talk about publishing false claims, that would take the cake.
    5. We strongly urge you to consult a taxidermist.

  33. “All the comments refer to the Prime Minister setting the date.

    Surely the decision would have been made by someone with authority within the Party? ”

    You have a point there. 🙂

    Lol…seriously…Fifield is in a massive sook. Jorno’s expressed an opinion as they are entitled to. Fine for Fifield to challenge that, but to do so by official complaint to their employer is silly. ABC need to slap this one right back at him.

  37. imacca @ #533 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 6:46 pm

    “All the comments refer to the Prime Minister setting the date.

    Surely the decision would have been made by someone with authority within the Party? ”

    You have a point there. 🙂

    Lol…seriously…Fifield is in a massive sook. Jorno’s expressed an opinion as they are entitled to. Fine for Fifield to challenge that, but to do so by official complaint to their employer is silly. ABC need to slap this one right back at him.

    Has he also sent a letter to the Fin. Review complaining about Coorey and maybe one for Kenny as well?

  40. Confessions says:
    Friday, June 1, 2018 at 8:27 pm
    Dio:

    We certainly haven’t had a stellar past few years that’s for sure, and the years ahead don’t look anymore promising.

    There are a few of us Blues fans on PB, me, Victoria and GG come to mind immediately but I know there are others.

    Fess

    I always thought Victoria and her family were staunch Hawthorn supporters.

  43. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Friday, June 1, 2018 at 9:52 pm
    Diogenes @ #536 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    What are Labor doing about their national conference being the same weekend as the by election bonanza?

    Looks like it will be just before Xmas.

    Not a bad move. Everyone will be focused on their Christmas shopping followed by the holiday period. Politics will be the furthest thing from their minds.

  44. OK, thanks for the correction Fess. I didn’t realise you also supported Carlton. Do you get along to their games when they are playing in WA?

  46. Hi William and All,

    Apologies if this question has already been answered, but:

    “Why have the betting odds for whether the next Federal election will be held in 2018 or 2019 disappeared from the Ladbrokes betting odds on the right-hand side bar?”

    A few weeks ago, 2019 was the preferred year, with something like 3:1 odds on 2019 c.f. 2018. Then, within a few hours, 2018 became the preferred date, with a very fast reversal of quoted odds. Then, quickly, the odds for the year of the Federal Election just disappeared.

    Is this because some people now know the date of the next Federal election, and so bets are no longer being taken? I cannot think of any other reason for bookies not wanting to take people’s money on a bet they cannot lose.

  50. Douglas and Milko @ #546 Friday, June 1st, 2018 – 7:18 pm

    Hi William and All,

    Apologies if this question has already been answered, but:

    “Why have the betting odds for whether the next Federal election will be held in 2018 or 2019 disappeared from the Ladbrokes betting odds on the right-hand side bar?”

    A few weeks ago, 2019 was the preferred year, with something like 3:1 odds on 2019 c.f. 2018. Then, within a few hours, 2018 became the preferred date, with a very fast reversal of quoted odds. Then, quickly, the odds for the year of the Federal Election just disappeared.

    Is this because some people now know the date of the next Federal election, and so bets are no longer being taken? I cannot think of any other reason for bookies not wanting to take people’s money on a bet they cannot lose.

    I would say it’s because of all the by-election markets that have been added.

    You can only show so many.

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