Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After the Coalition’s near-brush with parity over the previous two polls, Labor gains a bit more breathing room in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).

On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.

Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,328 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Google the December 2017 state swings and the may 2018 state swings, the polls have closed by about 2%in that time.

    The truth is Labor is in front but can’t make a decisive break in the vote – cos people don’t like Turnbull but don’t trust shorten.

    Even on the bludgertrack shorten would win by less than Rudd did in 07.

    It’s flatlining for labor. There’s something unpleasant about bill that voters don’t like. Who will wield the blade on shorten to guarantee victory?

  2. It is interesting that if either party were to ditch their leaders, they’d each move further from the centre. Labor to Albo or Pibersek; Lbs to Abbot, Morrison or Dutton.

  3. It’s not trickle down, it’s trickle up. The capital-owning class are getting far more efficient at sucking money into their coffers, including the ‘benefits’ of neoliberal transformation, which was the idea all along.

  4. Ven says:
    Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 10:24 pm
    Does Simon Benson belong to 3rd category?

    He seems to be a “hatchet man” who knows what he is supposed to write to earn his pay. He’s not in the same league as those deep thinkers like Shanahan, Kelly or Sloan.

    Like many in the CPG, he may be hoping one day to work for a L/NP pollie.

  5. Well Jen primary went 1 from the libs and plus 2 to phon.

    It seems like the split of the non Greens vote non 2party vote decides the election.

    Assume the Greens get a primary of 10 which goes 80% to labour – shorten needs 2- 4 %of the minor party non Greens vote to win out of a total pool of about 14% vote in this category -in the right seats.

    He’s clearly a favourite but not by much.

  6. I just cannot get much interested in poll movements that are easily within normal margins of error. William’s tracker smooths out most of these variations but for an individual poll I go ho hum. So I was not much interested in last weeks drop and this one brings us back to status quo.

    Indeed I would go even further to suggest that the election is a long way off and the vote for both parties is soft. Labor is plugging away quite well but the election is not in the bag yet.

  7. I seen Bill on Facebook today at Victoria’s conference, he is a man on a mission, really getting into morricrumb and turnbull

  8. Good result for Labor. Another poll confirming the trend.

    Still a long way to go before winning an election but I prefer to have the trend with Labor rather than against it.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #37 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:05 pm

    ESJ – Labor at 38% primary vote is up 3% on the last election – you know the one they finished a bees dick behind on the National 2PP and nearly won. With two significant minor parties at play (Greens on a steady in the o-10% range and ON on 8%) that 38% primary vote translates to a Labor landslide victory. You know it, the Government and MSM are both shitting bricks because they know it as well.


    No you are making huge assumptions that are probably flawed. Firstly obviously the Greens voters who return to Labor would have given their preferences there any way so the real comparison is ALP primary plus 83% of Greens.

    Now in this poll and others the wild card in PHON. Now last election they went reasonably well for the ALP, so it is probable that most of that 2% fall in Phon were the already ALP leaning voters who preferenced them. I think it is probable that the LNP will get a higher share of PHON preferences than in 2016.

  10. Actually the libs have gone up 2 on primary since December and labor has gone up 1.

    So 36 – 38for the libs and 37- 38 for labor.

    The kooky one nation vote decides it for better or for worse.

  11. vanessa
    that’s not quite mission stuff
    bill was shrill actually
    he does not own what he says, its all on script
    all capable, its what the audience wants, its solid B level student stuff, trying hard
    but not surprising, perhaps not what audience needs, and certainly not brilliant

    i am never veered from doubts from day one about bill – accept he will have to do, and will win
    but he is not rudd, or gillard, or keating, or hawke

    he might be measure of times … but really there are some tough policies that need to be thoughfully rhetorically worked through with electorate

  12. Steve777 @ #62 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:33 pm

    It’s not trickle down, it’s trickle up. The capital-owning class are getting far more efficient at sucking money into their coffers, including the ‘benefits’ of neoliberal transformation, which was the idea all along.

    Or, ‘Siphon off’ as one wag Labor MP put it recently. 🙂

  13. ESJ

    One Nation polls below the Greens. See polling compared to election results.

    Wester Australia is a stand out example. Western Australian’s have something to be proud about.

  14. Further, I’ll bet a small percentage of people interpret the question as “who is the Prime Minister?”

    True dat, especially when you come in contact with some of the great unwashed. 😉

  15. Turnbull will allow the RWNJs to replace him now to sidestep the defeat of the LNP whenever. Turnbull is a bolter.
    Shorten has very little to do to achieve status. Abbott and Turnbull detest the success of others especially Labor. Turnbull will be defeated in the party room and Abbott is untrained and incapable of any other work (!) So he’ll hang around al la Ian MacDonald (senate). Dutton is unelectable.
    Headlights will retire to the Shire and hate the world.
    Shorten to become a most unlikely Caesar. There is now no other choice. Don’t go on about Albo as he’d make a unlikely but popular GG.

  16. I wonder if Channel 7 will try to build on their $150,000 investment and sign up Barnaby & Vicky to one of their ‘reality’ shows on renovating houses or cooking competition. They’d be a sure fire ratings winner with the demographic who rely on tabloid TV for their news and entertainment.

  17. look bill is not good orator – mal is much more relaxed – that is problem
    bill has more content of course but style and delivery?
    bill can’t tell story, he is monotone is pitch and pace, he is trying not himself.
    oratory is finally a talent

    but good luck alp – time for big change

  18. Further, I’ll bet a small percentage of people interpret the question as “who is the Prime Minister?”

    That’s a great question. Who is the Prime Minister? There are at least 3 LNPers vying for the role: Turnbull, Dutton, Abbott, and possibly Andrews.

  19. Geoffrey

    Of course. Thats what bludgertrack shows. The trends.

    If we had voluntary voting the defeat of the tax cuts would have the narrative of voters not turning out.

    The failure of the LNP central signature policy has been noticed. No matter how much the media spin abandoning it as a get out of jail free card.

    Thats being LNP failing its base philosophy of small government. Now they have to collect the tax and spend it on something.

    Why vote Liberal if you are for small government?

  20. Who is prepared to sign up to go to a war and die

    From an obviously Liberal Party supporter

    Well, actually, over 200 young 20 year old Australians who were unlucky enough to be conscripted having their birth dates drawn from a barrel were sent to a War and their death in Vietnam – courtesy of the Liberal Party who will always have the blood of those murders on their hands

    And that is before we get to those who otherwise have suffered from being conscripted – and continue to suffer

    They never got a choice thanks to the Liberal Party

    And 50 plus years on what is the result?

    The contributor is so judged – as are the Liberal Party

  21. In fact, maybe the Coalition should have a voluntary plebiscite on the corporate tax cuts. Maybe also on all the other stuff they want to do like doubling teritiary fees and making a start on winding back Medicare through introducing a ‘co-payment’ that will be ratcheted up in non-election years.

    Or, as the critics of the critics of the same sex marriage plebiscite would say, do they hate democracy and won’t give the punters a say because they’ll vote wrong.

  22. Yes, if you take out the Newspoll (Yougov) tampering, it is 53/47 by normal standards. The only thing that will save Mal is to have Yougov take over from the AEC.

  23. I think a lot of Libs know the game is up. Look at beetroots dash for cash selling a boring story. He knows the game is up and is just trying to cash in.
    I bet you’ll see between now and end of July a bunch of new postings for lib favorites and a snap election on Aug 18.

    Keep an eye out for vacant spots getting filled, and last minute decisions on grants and other government largesse.

  24. I still think our great LNP Will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and will go on to win the next election with a 14 seat majority

  25. Desperacy on Kill Bill also. When you’ve got Newspoll doing preferred Labor leader and he is virtually as popular as anyone else in the party.Theres not much chance that anyone else is pushing for leadership change(except Rex and ESJ) So called leadership test for Shorten blown out of the water.

  26. LOL

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    16s17 seconds ago

    .@dailytelegraph’s @Houghtontweets on @Barnaby_Joyce complaint to @AusPressCouncil: The thing that scares me about this is when political leaders use the Press Council and they wield it as a weapon to avoid being critiqued.

    MORE: #pmlive

  27. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 10:47 pm
    Actually the libs have gone up 2 on primary since December and labor has gone up 1.

    So 36 – 38for the libs and 37- 38 for labor.

    The kooky one nation vote decides it for better or for worse.

    That is just rubbish ESJ. I honestly thought that you would have a better knowledge of the way the 2pp is calculated than that.

  28. SD

    I will be happy if Labor gets a one seat majority.

    I don’t care as long as its a majority and Labor is the government. Of course I expect they will do better than that. That warchest the LNP is so afraid of

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