Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After the Coalition’s near-brush with parity over the previous two polls, Labor gains a bit more breathing room in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).

On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.

Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,328 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Can one say … “suck eggs” you journos who said LNP were coming back? Last time was just ‘noise’.

  2. Something for DG to consider as he digests the terrible evils of military power… in particular not having enough of it when you really need it. At the beginning of the Burma Campaign the Gloucesters had just nine rounds per Thompson Gun plus ten Brewster Buffaloes and 14 P40s! They were about as far from Churchill as it was possible to get. That was never going to work out well.

    Which brings us to Burma Railroad.

    There are some astonishing statistics that don’t quite make it the surface of Australian recollections or reporting or book writing and so on and so forth.
    One group of 400 prisoners on the Burma Railroad did not lose a single man. Not one. They had three NEI doctors of much experience of tropical medicine with them.
    Another group of 170 Americans lost just eight men. They ascribed this to the NEI doctor attached to them. He was a sort Weary Dunlop figure. He would disappear into the jungles and come back with all sorts of bush medicine.
    As for the non-european slaves, the next time it comes the obligatory time of year to feel sad and outraged about Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it would be worth remembering that more of them died on the Burma Railroad than did people in either Hiroshima or Nagasaki.
    It just took them a bit longer.

  3. That SMH article is dated 31/8/13 and covers the Labor years.

    A follow up article written today would be useful.

  4. the Oz headlines are all about preferred PM where turnbull is doing better than shorten (and any PM other than abbott has always done better than the LoTO). Apparently going backwards on the TPP is not as important as the preferred PM ‘vote’ (which has rarely been the main indicator of voting intention).

    a royal commission into media bias and collusion with political parties is needed.

  5. HA HA

    Newspoll: Shorten sinks to record low
    Malcolm Turnbull has extended his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred PM, as Labor’s leader set a dubious record, Newspoll shows. (Oz headline now)

    Next headline: Murdoch sacks Newspoll company for not providing correct 2PP

  6. So despite many on here saying the polls are tightening and blaming Bill, dividend imputation and falling foul of S44 Newspoll is pretty much as it has been for the past 33 polls and the trend is as it has been since the last election.
    I have said before, most people have stopped listening to this government. It is going to take a lot for them to tune back in let alone buy what they are selling.
    Hopefully Labor will use the by elections to test run their general election campaign.

  7. Player One,
    Don’t you believe it. They haven’t even really started yet

    Yes, I should have said, the Murdoch media and the Coalition threw everything but the kitchen sink at Labor over the last two weeks. And I know they are only getting warmed up. But, you know what? I just get the feeling that the electorate, over the last 5 years, starting with the Kill Bill TURC, which fell as flat as a pancake along with Abbott and Hockey, followed by the Smarm Twins, Turnbull and Morrison, who think it’s such a jolly jape to make fun of Bill’s name, people out in the community are hip to their jive and can see the joins in the cloth the Coalition are cutting to try and line Bill Shorten’s political coffin with. And they’re not buying it!

    Instead, I think there are a lot of people out there actually looking at the competing policy suites and making a judgement accordingly. Strange as that may seem in this era of political dystopia.

  8. Newspoll figures. NUMBER 33.

    Thanks. I wasn’t really paying attention to the number of Newpolls for MT.

    My view is that voters have stopped listening to the govt, hence this constant oscillation around MoE in the polls with Labor leading all the time.

  9. FWA
    Um, no. There has definitely been a tightening in the polls. We would need to see some more before we might come to the conclusion that the tightening has stopped or that the trend is now going in the opposite direction.

  10. @Citizen:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    15m15 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: The coalition has lost further ground to @AustralianLabor in the latest #Newspoll, trailing 52-48 on two-party terms.

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    8m8 minutes ago

    UPDATE: The government suffered a 1% drop in their primary vote, now level with the opposition on 38% each.

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    7m7 minutes ago

    UPDATE: @TurnbullMalcolm’s personal popularity grew, now leading @billshortenmp 47-30 as better Prime Minister.

  11. @Jen

    “Can one say … “suck eggs” you journos who said LNP were coming back? Last time was just ‘noise’.”

    Nah – they’ll just go back to their favourite topic – Bill Shorten baaaad.

    Indeed – look at Benson. What an oxygen thief. No doubt Crowe will chime in over at Fairfax (he’s even worse than Chicken Massala. Who would have thought that possible).

    Wash and repeat. God, I hate our 4th Estate.

  12. A heart warming result, particularly given the change in PHON preferences.

    Could someone kindly calculate the TPP with last election preferences?

  13. Watching our commentariat (and more than a few on this site) occillate wildly with the ebbs and flows of Newspoll is sight to behold, and this one – as it snaps the growing narrative of “the narrowing” – should prove fun.

    Fact is, nothing has changed for 18 months or more – both major parties are on or about 38, with a projected 2PP of around 52-48; not a mammoth lead for Labor, but a reasonably comfortable one, and easily enough to win them sufficient seats to form government.

    Here’s tip for the CPG: read up about the concept of “margin of error”.

  14. Has anyone ever thought, people say Turnbull is the Better Prime Minister, because he IS the PM and they can’t really say about Bill because he ISN’T?

  15. The delicious irony of the MSM’s obsession over Truffles popularity and Shorten’s relatively poor popularity is that the 52-48 figures on the only score that matters (2PP) is in fact due in equal measure to Truffles’ incompetence and inability to lead the government and Shorten’s quiet yet effective leadership of the opposition.

    None so blind as those that will not see, hey Sexy Rexy …

  16. Oh dear; fiddled with the one nation preferences to make it look better and the dam thing is heading right back to 53 to labor. What are they to do?

  17. Dispatches from the Trenches:

    People are working bloody hard and they are not getting any more for it this year than they did last year, yet prices are going up and up and up! They are not very bloody happy! Especially when they see the wealthy in Australia living high on the hog and getting wealthier at the expense of their blood, sweat and tears.

  18. What is so laughable is the epic prognostications of journos, especially at the OZ, when the 2PP moves a single point.

  19. ESJ – Labor at 38% primary vote is up 3% on the last election – you know the one they finished a bees dick behind on the National 2PP and nearly won. With two significant minor parties at play (Greens on a steady in the 9-10% range and ON on about 8%) that 38% primary vote translates to a Labor landslide victory. You know it, the Government and MSM are both shitting bricks because they know it as well.

  20. I wonder if Poorline will reconsider her reconsideration to support the Corporate Tax Cuts again for businesses with a value up to 500 Million in the light of this latest Newspoll? 🙂

  21. Re Confessions @9:43PM: “That article is from 2013.”

    I doubt that anyone thinks it’s gig any better. Power prices up by 10 carbon taxes. Housing less affordable. Unemployment about the same. Wages going backwards in real terms. Casualisation of the work force continues apace. Graduates can’t get jobs in their field. Constant attacks on the unemployed and the disabled.

  22. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 9:59 pm
    Has anyone ever thought, people say Turnbull is the Better Prime Minister, because he IS the PM and they can’t really say about Bill because he ISN’T?

    I’ve thought similarly.

    Further, I’ll bet a small percentage of people interpret the question as “who is the Prime Minister?”

  23. BW

    I actually spend my time wondering why the Scandinavian countries continually top the world rankings for whatever outcome you can name, healthcare, education, happiness, etc., etc..

    Those outcomes are not achieved because of those nations military might. Instead of emulating the US and its masters in the military industrial complex, I’d rather we emulate the Nordic nations.

  24. Pauline gets the message that punters don’t support tax cuts for top end of town. Breaks promise to Cormann and gains 2 points.
    Surely ScoMo doesn’t think he can convince the voters that trickle down economics is other than a scam.
    Good to know the treasurer is rightly seen by the average Blow Joe as dumb. Debt going through the roof – fixed. Deficit away in the future and Labor’s problem – tick. Tax breaks for top end of town – I’m right, you are wrong wrong wrong.
    Mal and I are so clever what with the ALP conference and by-elections and all.

  25. With all the talk of tightening in the polls, Labor’s PV has hardly changed. I would be more concerned if it was declining slightly. PV of 37-38 will win the next election imo.

  26. I have been waiting for this. Because it is pretty funny – every “narrowing” to say 51-49 is greeted like the Second Coming by The Australian. When the inevitable “return to mean” happens one or two polls later to say 52-48, it barely rates a mention.

    My parents told me that in WW2 there was some town in France that they heard had been captured successfully several times over a few weeks – though apparently it had never fallen back into enemy hands according to the newspapers and radio.

    Someone made the point about “Better PM” – yes like “Better Premier” you have to be really bad to fall behind on this. In fact I think after the 1999 Victorian election Jeff Kennett was still leading Steve Bracks in the first poll AFTER the election when the final make-up of the Parliament and deals with the three independents were still uncertain.

  27. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 10:08 pm
    I wonder if Simon Benson feels dirty after he writes his pieces on Newspoll?

    I think there are three classes of people who write for Murdoch.

    1. Those who write articles on generally non-political matters like sport or the social pages.

    2. Those who take the money and try to tell themselves they’ll find a legitimate job some day.

    3. Those who are RWNJs that live and breathe what Murdoch and the IPA promote.

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