Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

After the Coalition’s near-brush with parity over the previous two polls, Labor gains a bit more breathing room in the latest Newspoll.

The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).

On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.

Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,328 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 47
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  1. steve davis says:
    Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 11:17 pm
    Guytaur
    Id be happy with a 5 seat majority,as long as Labor win.

    If it comes to that I would settle for a 1 seat majority just to get rid of this shambolic deceitful government and see them all sitting powerless on the opposition benches. We just cannot afford three more years of the damage they would cause if re-elected.

  2. Darn
    I still dont have a clue who in the right mind would vote for the Libs anyway,and where they get their votes from to get to 38% primary.


  3. Lee says:
    Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 11:11 pm

    I still think our great LNP Will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and will go on to win the next election with a 14 seat majority

    Wayne you have to change the comment as well.

  5. Regarding my major concern about this current mob:
    Robert Draper
    @DraperRobert
    ·
    23h
    My grandfather prosecuted Dachau war criminals. Later he wrote a book called “After Fifteen Years.” Its premise was that Nazism can happen anywhere, once good people start believing lies while not believing that those who are different from them are human beings.

  6. Shorten’s class war attack falls flat

    12:00amSIMON BENSON

    EXCLUSIVE: Bill Shorten’s scare tactics have been blunted, with a vast majority of voters supporting company tax cuts.

    More ‘exclusive’ tripe from Desperate Dans rag.

  7. The Australian is setting Newspolls questions up now to justify their so called journos shitty desperate articles against Labor.

  9. Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want “not at all

    This is what Bensons lightweight article is based on.

  13. Voters in Turnbull’s electorate oppose business tax cut

    Poll shows two in three Wentworth voters think corporate rate should stay the same or go up
    (Guardian 20th March)

  14. Tonight I enjoyed a large mudcrab for dinner. A neighbour gave it to us from his catch. cooked, chilled and fresh. It is the tastiest crab I have had in a long while. The night before we had fish from someone’s catch, that were given to my son. I don’t know what they were except they were Delicious.

    I am about 200 kms from Broome and less than one km from a remote and stunning beach, with some mangroves areas. After checking for crocodiles we went into the sea up to our waists and just let the warm ocean water wash over us. The sunset was gorgeous.

    I have met a few people here but hope to meet more this week.

  15. Edwina StJohn wrote:
    “The truth is Labor is in front but can’t make a decisive break in the vote”…. So, the Libs have been continuously below the 50% 2PP since soon after the last Federal election but it’s Labor that should “make a decisive break in the vote”?…. Ha, ha, ha… that’s quite funny. Do you realise that the 2PP difference at the last election was 0.36%?
    But hey, delusion is free of charge…. until election night.

  17. And now we resume our current programming….

    52-48 Carry on.

    Nothing to worry about unless you’re a LIB pollie

  18. Nine News at 5 “Bill Shorten slips in poll”.

    No mention that the LNP has “slipped”.

    It’s Mal’s big money media mates who are keeping the LNP in the game !

  20. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    And the government and their media boosters just keep barreling on with Kill Bill and Labor.

    They say ‘Money Talks’ but it speaks with a forked tongue.

  21. Am I right in thinking that Chris Bowen mentioned “accelerated depreciation” as a possibility?

    Kerr Neilson, the man described as Australia’s most astute company investor, also the man whose family has millions to gain personally from corporate tax cuts, has called the case for the government’s plan to cut corporate taxes “hollow”.

    “I’ve heard the words but not the evidence,” says the founder and managing director of Platinum Asset Management of the Enterprise Tax Plan.

    “I don’t fully understand why they want to drop the corporate tax rate. This idea that companies will not invest strikes me as rather hollow.”

    The proposals, he says, are unsophisticated in that they ignore other inducements such as accelerated depreciation, which is a tax break on its own.

    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/kerr-neilson-the-case-for-corporate-tax-cuts-is-weak/

  24. steve davis @ #112 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 12:35 am

    By 56-29, voters opposed tax cuts for big companies.(Reachtel March 28th)

    So, why is The Australian trumpeting the fact that ‘voters overwhelmingly support the Corporate Tax Cuts’!?! It can only be a result out of the Newspoll. So I wonder if the question asked equates to push polling the issue?

  25. Edwina StJohn wrote:
    “The truth is Labor is in front but can’t make a decisive break in the vote”…. So, the Libs have been continuously below the 50% 2PP since soon after the last Federal election but it’s Labor that should “make a decisive break in the vote”?

    I think ESJ is Christopher Pyne in drag. 😉

  26. Newspoll ? What to think? Let’s ask the Courier Mail

    Voters shun Shorten’s tax assault

    NEWSPOLL AS Bill Shorten racked up a record with voters he’d probably rather forget, the opposition leader’s attack on company tax cuts also fell way short with the public.

    Or The Telegraph

    Shorten’s class war attack falls flat

    EXCLUSIVE: Bill Shorten’s scare tactics have been blunted, with a vast majority of voters supporting company tax cuts.

    Obviously winning 33 pols in a row is terrible for Labor so I wonder what should be done. Ah, The Australian knows what needs to be done. They of course have always had the best interest of Labor close to their heart and so advise there be some #leadershit

    Albo preferred as Labor leader
    Bill Shorten’s ambitions have taken another hit as his arch-rival pulls ahead as the preferred Labor leader

    Bu the really strange thing is not one mention of 52-48 to Labor on the front page of any of Rupert’s Ministry of Propaganda publications. 🙂

  29. See how the media distort the facts, and people believe them.

    A quiz question has bounced around the social media this month. Readers are invited to have a shot:

    Over the last 30 months, since May 2013, 17 state or federal parliamentarians have been forced to resign from the executive or their party following allegations of illegal conduct. How many were Labor Party MPs?

    (a) All 17.
    (b) Eight, fewer than half.
    (c) Only five.
    (d) One.

    Answers seem to vary with exposure to mainstream news reports, particularly on the trade union royal commission. Answers (a) and (b) are most popular among consumers of newspapers, and commercial radio and TV. But sometimes (c).

    The correct answer is, in fact, (d) one. Of the last 17 state or federal MPs sinbinned, 15 are Liberal Party members. One is a National and one is Labor.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/corruption-and-incompetence-flourish-under-turnbull,8430#.WwsM2opHymI.twitter

  34. GOP strategist Rick Wilson gives Trumps week a reality check :

    Trump’s land of delusion: Disregard the sycophants; the wheels are coming off, if they were ever on

    Bluffers bluff, and President Trump just tried to bluff his way through one of the worst weeks of his administration.

    It’s not working. Donald Trump is a terrible poker player. His tells are so clumsily obvious and that we mistakenly give him credit for guile where none exists, and for some cinematic, supervillain cunning where there is only a howling, feral mass of insecurity and need.

    The delta between reality and spin with Trump is always broad, and last week it was unspinnably vast. It’s also been a stunning illustration of just how powerful the division between reality and fantasy has become in the two hermetic media silos that now exist in America.

    We can be dragged down into Trump’s wilderness of mirrors , or we can take a deep breath and appreciate just how truly terrible his week was. With Trump, it’s always the worst week, since the last week.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trump-land-delusion-article-1.4010243

  35. Jaeger

    “Cats that are fed still hunt,” said Mr. Longcore, assistant professor of architecture, spatial sciences and biological sciences at the University of Southern California. “Even neutered cats and spayed cats hunt.”

    I wish people would understand this.

  36. Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti has become a ‘hero’ on the left — and he has an aggressive fan base

    •Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti has a huge and growing fan base.

    • His supporters want to see someone take on President Donald Trump using some of Trump’s own tactics – and they believe Avenatti is the only one to do so successfully.

    • It has led to them vociferously backing Avenatti through some recent controversies.

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/stormy-daniels-lawyer-michael-avenatti-fans-2018-5?r=US&IR=T

  37. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Fool Gilbert on Sky News is feasting on the News Ltd slants on Newspoll and Shorten. Just look at what The Australian has on offer today!
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/

    David Crowe says Barnaby Joyce is burning his credibility with Australian voters with every attempt he makes to explain his personal crisis. I didn’t watch the interview. Did you?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-150-000-interview-deal-shows-he-s-no-battler-20180527-p4zht5.html
    Jess Irvine says that for a nation struggling to get wage rises up off the floor, the ramifications of Fair Work Australia’s decision on the minimum wage have never been greater.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-ramifications-of-these-hearings-have-never-been-greater-20180527-p4zhta.html
    Michael West reports that Kerr Neilson, the man described as Australia’s most astute company investor, also the man whose family has millions to gain personally from corporate tax cuts, has called the case for the government’s plan to cut corporate taxes “hollow”.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/kerr-neilson-the-case-for-corporate-tax-cuts-is-weak/
    Ross Gittins describes Turnbull’s 23.9% tax cap as mere window dressing. He concludes by stating a party making no promises on the extent of its tax raising is more to be believed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/fortunately-turnbull-s-tax-cap-is-just-political-window-dressing-20180526-p4zhpe.html
    Jennifer Hewett begins her article with “The federal government’s tax cut plans will remain caught in the usual game of bluff in the Senate this week. But which party gets more of the blame for that stalemate will be crucial to political momentum for the rest of the year.”
    https://outline.com/LDgwpn
    Meanwhile Bill Shorten has shifted up a gear in his fight against company tax cuts by arguing that even if the Turnbull government dumped them before the election, it would bring them back if it won.
    https://outline.com/Y6T3xj
    People who rely on legal aid will find it even harder to access help because lawyers who work for the service have not had a pay rise in more than 10 years, the profession has warned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/the-150-an-hour-lawyers-threatening-to-quit-20180523-p4zgzn.html
    Former union leader turned KPMG partner Paul Howes says he is sceptical about whether the royal commission process is serving customers or the wider financial services sector.
    https://outline.com/zrzeKu
    Nicole Hasham tells us there’s something fishy about the government’s choice of the outfit to manage the $444m for the Great Barrier Reef.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/reef-charity-s-fundraising-record-casts-doubt-on-444-million-grant-20180524-p4zhdt.html
    The super industry is quietly undermining a plan to strip it of $600 million a year in fees and insurance premiums on lucrative “ghost” accounts.
    https://outline.com/69ZtbG
    The major fast food chains have some work to do when it comes to promoting healthy eating.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/3-100-the-fast-food-company-with-the-worst-health-score-20180527-p4zhrw.html
    Sydney Trains is suffering almost two serious IT incidents a day following a bungled $425 million technology overhaul by the state’s main transport agency, placing the rail network at greater risk, confidential documents reveal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/bungled-upgrade-places-sydney-trains-at-greater-risk-20180521-p4zgj2.html
    Rudy Giuliani has said that his repeated imputations of a supposed scandal at the heart of the Robert Mueller investigation – which Donald Trump calls “Spygate” – amounted to a tactic to sway public opinion and limit the risk of the president being impeached.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/27/rudy-giuliani-spygate-robert-mueller-donald-trump
    he SMH editorial lauds Australia’s attack on slavery.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-to-join-assault-on-slavery-20180527-p4zhto.html
    Here is an excellent article from Tony Walker on the ABC.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-radio-is-world-class-abc-tv-not-so-much-20180525-p4zhjo.html
    The top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee on Sunday called on voters to “throw the bums out” of Congress whom he has accused of trying to help President Donald Trump undermine the special counsel’s Russia probe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/throw-the-bums-out-of-congress-to-protect-russia-probe-top-democrat-20180528-p4zhuq.html
    Chelsea Clinton has unloaded on Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/chelsea-clinton-trump-degrades-what-it-means-to-be-an-american-20180528-p4zhul.html
    Barnaby Joyce has blasted his own’s government’s “bulls–t” commitment to moving public servants from Canberra to regional Australia, a contentious policy he championed before his demise as Nationals leader.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-cries-foul-in-government-s-approach-to-public-service-jobs-20180525-p4zhi7.html
    Here’s Urban Wronski’s contribution for the week.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/05/28/hastie-goes-over-the-top-while-hanson-spills-the-beans/
    Grieving couples will no longer have to smuggle the remains of a cremated baby back to Ireland.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/27/yes-repeal-eighth-amendment-irish-women-inequality
    Why journalists need to understand grammar to write accurately about violence.
    https://theconversation.com/war-of-words-why-journalists-need-to-understand-grammar-to-write-accurately-about-violence-96850
    If a butterfly in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas, the disorder Trump will cause is not a matter of “if” but “when”, writes Kim Sawyer.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-international-butterfly-effect-of-a-chaotic-us-president,11536
    It’s confronting to think that Australia may find itself in a position where it won’t have enough aged care employees to adequately look after our ageing population. Government forecasts show we’ll need almost a million aged care employees by 2050.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/aged-care-in-crisis-who-will-look-after-you-when-you-re-old-20180525-p4zhfu.html
    This secondary student writes about chronic overcrowding in NSW schools.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/lunch-in-a-stairwell-overcrowding-at-my-high-school-is-beyond-a-joke-20180527-p4zhrk.html
    And in Victoria state schools with large numbers of students from outside their area will soon be forced to start rejecting families, with looming changes set to wind back parents’ school choice.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/a-clandestine-strategy-to-wind-back-parent-choice-20180527-p4zht3.html
    More than a million vehicles with potentially deadly Takata airbags have been added to a recall list by the consumer watchdog.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/more-than-1-million-cars-added-to-takata-airbag-recall-20180527-p4zhrj.html
    Plans by James Packer’s Crown Resorts to build Australia’s tallest skyscraper are in doubt ahead of a fast-closing deadline.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/packer-s-plans-uncertain-on-australia-s-tallest-building-20180525-p4zhhz.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman gets it right about Barnaby.

    As does David Rowe.

    An autumn contribution from Matt Golding.

    And there’s a precious few more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-28-2018-20180527-h10lvy.html

  38. C@tmomma @ #132 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 7:34 am

    KayJay,
    All 3 front pages are viewable. Sadly. 😉

    Yes indeedy.

    ♫Just you wait ♪Cat@Momma,♫ just you wait
    Sung to the tune of (what else :?:) just you wait enry iggins .

    I have made a very serious error of judgement and discovered that one Piers Akerman is still alive and writing the same quality material as of yesteryear. It may even be exactly the same material.
    More to come on this important story.
    Ta Da ♫♪

  39. Morning all. Thanks BK. On the Sydney trains IT bungle, I found this paragraph interesting:
    “The “Making IT Work For You” program has had eight program directors over the past five years, and fell under the oversight of Tim Catley until early this year when he left his role as Transport for NSW’s chief information officer to become the information chief at Peter Dutton’s new Home Affairs super ministry.”

    Brilliant! Like minds attracting each other?

  41. From the BK Files

    David Crowe says Barnaby Joyce is burning his credibility with Australian voters with every attempt he makes to explain his personal crisis. I didn’t watch the interview. Did you?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-s-150-000-interview-deal-shows-he-s-no-battler-20180527-p4zht5.html

    No Sir I didn’t watch Bob Hawke’s interview —

    Bob Hawke and Blanche d’Alpuget received up to $200,000 for an interview more than two decades ago, famously posing in bathrobes for Woman’s Day, but this was after Hawke had left The Lodge.

    —either.
    For those who are trying to remember who is this mysterious Barnaby Joyce

    A reminder

  42. Kelly O’Mandible continues to pursue a ‘fix’ to a problem that doesn’t exist – default super funds. Let’s be clear, all the problems in the industry identified with the productivity commission exist in the retail fund sector. The ‘default’ funds – industry super funds – are the best managed financial institutions in the country. Having worker’s super default into an industry fund if they don’t exercise ‘choice’ was a brilliant idea that actually works brilliantly … of course the banksters in the LNP will have none of that!

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-told-to-fix-474-billion-superannuation-sector-20180527-p4zht1.html

  43. BK thanks for the dawn patrol.

    Re Downer blocking everyone on Facebook. May I suggest that someone from the Mayo Electorate start up a Facebook Group Page – maybe titled “Downer has blocked me”

    And each poster post up what question or comment they put onto her FB page which caused her Admins to delete and block.

    It would prove very interesting I would say.

    Cheers and enjoy the byelection.

  44. Liberal MP Craig Kelly has threatened to quit the Coalition if he loses an upcoming preselection battle.

    Oh good. If they’ve any sense they’ll let him go. But…

  45. Sabra Lane perpetuating the “Everybody Love Corporate Tax Cuts” Newspoll line.

    Willing help from Matthias Cormann.

  46. lizzie @ #144 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 8:11 am

    Liberal MP Craig Kelly has threatened to quit the Coalition if he loses an upcoming preselection battle.

    Oh good. If they’ve any sense they’ll let him go. But…

    And join? Hmm. Choices. Choices. One Nation or Cory’s Conservatives? 🙂

    So, none of this ‘Don’t change the jockey’ stuff, or cuddles from Scott, that Ann Sudmalis resorted to, just, ‘pre-select me, or the party gets it in the neck!’

    No wonder women don’t want to vote for Australia’s version of the Insane Clown Posse!

  47. Plenty of pollies have written books while in office which one assumes they were paid to publish.

    Joyce doing an interview for pay is not much different imho.

    However, the prurient content doesn’t do him any favours and seems to be peeving his side of the political divide. If re-building trust and credibility is his aim, then this is a definate fail. At the end of the day, Joyce has lost his political judgement and that is what is destroying his career.

  48. Interesting talk by Hugh McKay (ABC TV) on the loss of faith in institutions (Banks, Politics, Churches, Media, etc.)

  49. Andrew_Earlwood

    Industry super funds leave the rest in the dust. That the Coalition attack them shows what a bunch of spivs,crooks,shysters the Coalition are. This article features a top 12 table of Super funds performance over the last decades. Retail funds on it ? Zero.

    Super funds at the top of league have two things in common

    ………………………………….You’ll notice the top funds have a few things in common.

    First, they’re all not-for-profit funds, either industry funds or public sector schemes, rather than retail funds run for profit by banks and other financial services companies.

    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/super-funds-at-the-top-of-league-have-two-things-in-common-20180330-p4z75r.html

  50. Guytaur@11:05pm and steve davis@11:05pm on 27/05/2018
    The count is 33, which equals Gillard’s record, which people say is the worst ever record on Newspoll.
    Lne more & MT is unchartered territory.
    The OZ headline should have Turnbull equals Gillard’s record instead of voters reject shorten’s opposition to taxcut

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