The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).
On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.
Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.
The world weeps!
“Re Downer blocking everyone on Facebook. May I suggest that someone from the Mayo Electorate start up a Facebook Group Page – maybe titled “Downer has blocked me”
And each poster post up what question or comment they put onto her FB page which caused her Admins to delete and block.”
I put up a comment as to Newspoll (just quoted the result) and how great it was Malcolms PPM lead is intact. Sanitised off pretty quickly. Only comments i can see still there are the warm, meaningless fluffy ones…..
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/lunch-in-a-stairwell-overcrowding-at-my-high-school-is-beyond-a-joke-20180527-p4zhrk.html
Thanks BK.
This may have been linked earlier in the weekend but it deserves some concentrated attention.
Jericho writes about an IMF Report which looks at robotics, automation, the prospects for wages, the prospects for taxing capital and the general economic and wealth (in)equality consequences of all of the above.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/may/27/the-imfs-research-on-robots-hits-you-between-the-eyes-with-pessimism
Jericho does mention the UBI. But unlike Di Natale he assumes that someone will have to pay for it and the prospect of raising the necessary taxes is not good.
“Industry super funds leave the rest in the dust. That the Coalition attack them shows what a bunch of spivs,crooks,shysters the Coalition are.”
I am eagerly awaiting the RC getting onto the Super Funds. I suspect that there will be some skeletons fall out of the closet from Industry Funds, but for them to shape up as much better run from a members perspective than Retail Funds.
The Coalition agenda on super seems to centre round i”independent directors” , ie: getting their mates on the boards, and “default funds” so that their mates have better access to new, disengaged members to milk. All the rest is just distracting fluff.
DG
I notice that you have ignored Gandhi having the blood of around 4 million people on his hands as a direct consequence of his non violence prating. 4 million skeletons in his closet.
In general Denmark is protected by NATO and the US military presence in Europe. So they have been skiving off others for years. They are freeloaders like New Zealand. No wonder the Danes are so happy. They have persuaded others to carry their defence can.
Sweden is in a different basket and has taken various approaches to defence spending. At its peak Sweden had around 400 modern fighters at a time when Australia had around 70 equivalents. This was when the Swedish economy was much smaller than the Australian economy.
Sweden’s defence spending as a proportion of GDP has declined in recent years. Putin’s military expansionism may just make them decide to crank it up. The Swedish air force is roughly the equivalent of that of Australia. Its navy, bearing in mind that its requirements are virtually limited to short range operations in the Baltic, ditto.
Who (except Trump) would want a lawyer like Giuliani?
Morrison’s budget hoping for the dead cat bounce!
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/1000871017441447936
Confessions @ #151 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 8:30 am
What the hell is that all supposed to mean!?!
C@tmomma @ #159 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 8:53 am
Jared and Ivanka a are in deep doo doo!
Or that Russian asset Carter Page, who came to Washington with stars in his eyes and the hands of Putin pulling his strings. His young, beautiful life cut down by the crooks at the DoJ.
Two questions regarding the alleged popularity of the company tax cuts:
1. If the tax cuts are so popular (a “massive blow” to Labor according to Michael Pacci on 3aw news this morning) why is it not reflected in the 2pp? The government has been spruiking them for months and they are still well behind according to Newspoll’s own survey.
2. Can deliberately misleading questions like this in an opinion poll, obviously designed to get a bogus answer, have any effect on changing the voting intention of people in future polls. I would say no.
One can only conclude that the whole purpose of it is to try and fool the cross benchers into supporting the legislation next time it is presented in the senate. So a third question becomes:
3. Are the cross benchers really so dumb as to believe such nonsense?
Even with some of them not being very bright (looking at you Pauline) the overwhelming evidence from other polls should be enough to persuade them otherwise. Indeed, this obvious ruse by Newspoll may well be counter productive if it is seen by the senators as an insulting attempt to deceive them .
C@t:
Those evil nasty people at the FBI and DoJ ruining the lives of good people who just wanted to make a difference. Like Paul Manafort, Carter Page, Mike Flynn and all the rest of them!
The Australia’s low readership not withstanding, Benson’s article on public ‘support’ for the company tax cuts is really only addressed to the 11 senate cross benchers.
If the ABC is reporting it without caveats gives them no credibility.
Good morning all,
I am sure labor would not be too upset with the OZ headlines this morning.
Let the government and its MSM propaganda units continue to push the “corporate tax cuts are good line” from now until the next election.
Labor would be salivating with anticipation at fighting the next election on high end company tax cuts.
Cheers.
Boerwar @ #37839 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 8:43 am
Sweden had an empire too.
BTW,
It seems to me that Murdoch and co are really trying to convince themselves.
Cheers.
Re Imacca @8:31AM ‘Re Downer blocking everyone on Facebook. May I suggest that someone from the Mayo Electorate start up a Facebook Group Page – maybe titled “Downer has blocked me”’
Or maybe “Questions Georgina Downer doesn’t want to answer”.
Shouldn’t ‘Georgina Downer’ Be answerable to the AEC/Commission etc about blocking users on Social Media? Just like Trump was at High Court ?
Shouldn’t ‘Georgina Downer’ Be answerable to the AEC/Commission etc about blocking users on Social Media? Just like Trump was at High Court ?
Shouldn’t ‘Georgina Downer’ Be answerable to the AEC/Commission etc about blocking users on Social Media? Just like Trump was at High Court ?
Re, company tax cut being popular. Will Pauline be silly enough to fall for it? It’s in Australian so it must be true.
@immaca
“I suspect that there will be some skeletons fall out of the closet from Industry Funds,”
I can tell you now what the ‘skeletons’ will be: Industry Funds have the temerity to appoint union bosses to the board, some of whom (like old mate Bernie O’Riordian) trouser the Directors’ fees, but worse – most actually donate their fee back to their union to use fighting bosses. You can see the problem there, can’t you.
The other ‘scandal’ will be industry funds funding a superannuation officer within unions to go out and check on missing contributions. Super contributions are the ‘canary in the coal mine’ – if an employer suddenly stops making contributions it is a very strong sign that it is in financial trouble. It is also a very strong indicator of wage theft. So you can see ‘the problem’ with union officials sniffing around non complying employers, surely.
Labor’s on 38%, that’d be enough to win government, and a relatively comfortable majority.
John Reidy says:
Monday, May 28, 2018 at 8:57 am
The Australia’s low readership not withstanding, Benson’s article on public ‘support’ for the company tax cuts is really only addressed to the 11 senate cross benchers.
If the ABC is reporting it without caveats gives them no credibility.
Yep;it’s all about Pauline, and the ABC news dept got suckered again.
citizen @ #43 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:10 pm
Both of you are just re-stating conventional wisdom.
Steve777 @ #37851 Monday, May 28th, 2018 – 9:07 am
Questions Georgina Downer (By The Grace of Ming, Queen-expectorant of Mayo and of all other comestibles beyond the Goyder line, Supreme Inbred Airhead (4th Class) of the Imperial IPA trough, Rupertlicker-in-waiting and Second Rate Ivanka knock-off)
doesn’t want tocan’t answer.GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
34m34 minutes ago
More
#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Shorten 39 (+3) Plibersek 25 (-2) Albanese 22 (0) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
34m34 minutes ago
More
#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Shorten 39 (+3) Plibersek 25 (-2) Albanese 22 (0) #auspol
Haha….ABC News Breakfast avoiding any mention of the 2pp result in Newspoll. I was looking forward to seeing Michael Rowlands choking on it.
Zoidlord we don’t have the First Amendment so I wouldn’t have thought the same kind of thing applies re Downer’s Facebook
Gladys Berejiklian was interviewed this morning on ABC radio.
Despite annoying cross-examination by co-hosts Wendy Harmer and Robbie Buck, Gladys managed to get her points across.
(a) There are no billion dollar cost overruns, only incompetent contractors who tell lies and mismanage money. Businesses in Sydney’s CBD who have gone broke due to resultant delays are just whingers who can’t adapt to having first the streets, and then the footpaths outside their shops and restaurants closed and boarded up. Gladys herself has seen several businesses do well out of the developments (despite not being prepared to name any).
(b) The business case for the Eastern Suburbs Light Rail was obvious. That’s why we didn’t need one. Rather than deny she was informed that what turned out to be a $700 million utilities refurb was only going to cost $100 million, she told listeners that “we in government” are only given final figures, not detailed costings. A $600 million discrepancy, the cause of a year’s delay (so far) and coming huge litigation before work even resumes (much less is completed) was a mere incidental matter when Gladys signed-off on the project as Transport Minister. She didn’t seem to be able to remember whether it came up at all, actually.
(c) Local councils, pissed off at having even minor developments in their various areas classed as “State Significant” (and thus immune from planning criticism) should have spoken up more forcefully as their suburbs were demolished to make way for a hyperspace by-pass. It’s not Gladys’ fault that they couldn’t be bothered hiring spin doctors as good as the ones she has working for her.
(d) If journalists got out of their studios and newsrooms and actually talked to “People In The Street” (like Gladys does), they would find that B-Doubles choking their traffic arteries, permanent gridlock, concrete canyons replacing green zones, overcrowded schools as thousands move into apartment precincts without infrastructure to service them, and general ennui due to development shock were figments of rabid imaginations, and in fact the ordinary man or woman in the street welcomed Sydney’s coming status as “truly a world city”.
**********
The deluge of critical calls from listeners after the interview just shows how the punters don’t know a good thing when they see one, and certainly aren’t aware how happy they are, deep down, that Gladdie is their Premier.
Ingrates!
Re: GhostWhoVotes breakdown of preferred ALP leader amongst Labor voters.
I’d like to see a breakdown of preferred ALP leader amongst ‘others’. Unfortunetly one would need a much larger sample size than the 111 of so surveyed in last night’s Newspoll that indicated a primary vote for the ‘other’ category to make this a meaningful exercise. Ditto with One Nation voters.
I’d say that the 38% that would vote labor are not for turning. Similarly with the 38% LNP. Ditto Greens voters. Maybe the rest could be swayed by a popularity contest. Therefore If ‘leadership’ has any influence over voting patterns then surely the swinging or ‘other’ voter – and perhaps ON – are the only categories that matter in some way?
Regarding the media bias in reporting polls, surely it can be a positive for Labor in so far as the other side remain just completely and wilfully ignorant about the actual state of play.
BB
From my vantage point in Melbourne, I believe Baird left the premiership role for someone else to deal with the decisions made on behalf of the spivs. In other words Gladys is now left holding the baby
rhw
Sweden used to be a big player on the European wars stage.
From this it learned two main things.
Don’t go to war.
Be very, very ready for war should it come to you.
This has been Swenden’s approach for two centuries and it has worked very well for them.
I wish Australia would adopt the same general approach.
@shiftaling-
“Regarding the media bias in reporting polls, surely it can be a positive for Labor in so far as the other side remain just completely and wilfully ignorant about the actual state of play.”
Two schools of thought: 1. ‘Don’t interrupt an enemy when hes making a mistake’. Powerful argument.
But as a counterpoint:
2. Advertising gurus can sell anything: therefore as ‘politics is perception’ then ‘a lie repeated often and artfully enough is truth’.
It is the second school of thought that the MSM and LNP subscribe to. Just like their counterparts in Britain and America. It is a melancholy fact that this school of thought has been able to deliver remarkable political victories over the past 40 years – ever since Nixon in fact. Indeed the world as we know it has been ‘shaped’ (misformed) as a consequence …
On ABC’s RN this morning, talking to Hamish Macdonald, Michelle Grattan challenged (somewhat) the groupthink interpretation of the Newpoll results on the company tax by pointing out the skewed wording of the relevant question and making the point that it should have been preceded by a question asking about support or otherwise for the proposition.
She then commented on the PPM figures, suggesting that Bill Shorten’s leadership was likely to be challenged if the results of the by-elections did not go the ALP’s way. She suggested that one seat lost would probably not cause a problem but that a loss of two would be less than good for his position as leader.
The whole point of the sleazy Benson stuff is Kill Bill.
It is the only thing that the plutocrats have left in their public discourse kitbag.
In private they will be paying tens of millions for big data and its application to manipulating what is left of our democracy.
BL
Ms Grattan setting yet another Kill Bill test?
Andrew_Earlwood
Yep. You only have to look at Trump. He repeatedly says this special investigation is a witch-hunt. Says it enough times and many believe it is fact
Did Gladys say the Eastern Suburbs tram was delayed ‘a year’……it was supposed to close George St for one Christmas. This year will be the 4th I think, with at least a couple more to come.
Seriously, what first world major city tears up its main street for 4, 5 or 6 years! And half of circular quay, and the streets around Central, and a scar all the way to UNSW.
This is the true story re ALP leadership.
BW
Indeed. It was also a variation of her approach of …”on the one hand…., on the other”, which has been commented on at different times by PBers.
“So you can see ‘the problem’ with union officials sniffing around non complying employers, surely.”
LoL!! Andrew… all reflects on the Coalitions core business. Protect their donors from any perceived threat and continue the Howard era strategy of undermining the Unions financial / membership base, so undermining the ALP’s access to funding.
I think that in some ways this is more urgent for the Libs than before. Seems to me that one of the problems for the Libs that they are really being slapped in the face by is actual support on the ground….when needed. Big part of the ALP “ground game” when an election is on is that they have a proven ability to mobilise ALP members, straight out volunteers, and people from the Union movement who know that fairness aint going to even get a look in while the Libs are in power . And to get significant numbers out there.
It fine having access to data and social media to help run a campaign but you NEED real people on the ground to translate that into votes. There are probably others here with a better handle on where the Libs are, but if their funding is tight, AND they are outnumbered as far as active supporters go, and the polling is set in stone with ALP ahead………………….Not a good strategic outlook.
Media at the moment happy to run with ALP #leadershit. Which is ridiculous given the instability of Malcolm’s leadership and the way he is hostage to hostile elements in his own party.
re Industry Super Funds.
I expect the RC will find what most people already know – they’re the best and most ethically run financial institutions in Australia.
Boerwar says:
Monday, May 28, 2018 at 9:33 am
rhw
Sweden used to be a big player on the European wars stage.
From this it learned two main things.
Don’t go to war.
Be very, very ready for war should it come to you.
This has been Swenden’s approach for two centuries and it has worked very well for them.
I wish Australia would adopt the same general approach.
The over-riding issue in the nuclear age is the preservation of peace. Australia should contribute to this, most particularly in our region. Sweden’s policy may have served Sweden – a country with a long warfaring history before its defeat by Peter The Great – but it did nothing to prevent wars in Europe. Withdrawal is not a solution for Australia. But neither is dependancy. We need to be more clear-eyed about our interests and how to protect them.
Ghost who votes
ALPs Bill 39, Tanya 25, Anthony 22. All capable and part of a great front bench.
L/NP Malcolm 99, Dutton , Pyne , Abbott, Andrews, ScoMo and Kelly O’Bigmouth can share the rest. No wonder its one crisis after the other. Barnabys mate , whats his name , and the pearl lady are the capable deputies guiding in the background.
The sooner the better Malcolm.
Muskiemp
Thanks for the logical approach!!
This is the true story re ALP leadership.
“#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Shorten 39 (+3) Plibersek 25 (-2) Albanese 22 (0) #auspol— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) May 27, 2018”
So where is the headline:
“Newspoll shows Shorten consolidates hold on ALP leadership”