Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 24
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  1. “Funny how Murdoch’s Oz has heard of Mirabella’s payout but seems to have missed the withdrawal of charges against CFMEU officials.”
    The Grauniad is the same. Katharine has entered ‘Kill-Bill-Protect-Malcolm’ election mode.

  2. Absence of Empathy (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 11:11 am
    Comment #137

    In the good old days (Ha De Hah Hah), church elders, mothers, grannies, wise men (:?:), community leaders , police and probably stray dogs would, on hearing of domestic abuse, advise a return to the family home and often the abused victim would be returned (like it or not).

    Those days were so wonderful that unmarried mothers would have the child taken from them. The mothers then were treated as outcasts.

    So you can see that this was the golden age to which we should aspire.

    Now, my friend, a wonderful woman (now dead – nearly everyone I have ever known is dead) used to wisely advise me (nothing new here) – you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.

    My now deceased wife used to tell me, when prompted, how tall, handsome, wise and generous I was.
    She also used to call me a goat.
    We both knew that none of these things was very accurate. She would also praise me for my appearance, with a full head of jet black hair.
    Ah ❗ The wonders of love and romance.

    The truth is I am just an old bloke trying to get through each day as amicably as possible.
    I guess I am quite wishy/washy.
    If I were to advise you – the advice would be take it easy – everybody makes mistakes and the trick is to learn from them.

    The lady who raised a question with me is a friend of mine (I hope). She is firm in her beliefs and is quite vocal, as indeed is fair enough.

    I sincerely thank you for you support. I won’t forget.

    Here endeth the lesson – mostly directed at myself.

    I will now spend a couple of hours talking to my loved ones in Canberra.

    ☮✌

  3. bemused says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 10:59 am

    …”No, but I am wondering why you even ask us that question”…


    Obviously YOU have said something to upset Guytaur’s sensibilities.
    No idea what I might have done.

  4. Rachel Maddow Just Blew The Lid Off Of A Bribery Ring That Could Destroy Trump and His Family

    Rachel Maddow exposed how the nation of Qatar is bribing former members of Trump’s White House and current members of Trump family in a matter that is so corrupt it could destroy every that is associated with Trump.

    Maddow said, “In this story, we have a Qatari government official who really was in control of a huge pot of Qatari government money. He has now accused of bragging that he used Qatari money to bribe Mike Flynn and is accused of offering to use more qatari money to bribe/fund Steve Bannon

    The Qatar bribery scandal is not the Russia scandal. If these allegations are true, they reveal a level of corruption that is so toxic that it will never have been seen before in American politics. The Russia scandal is complicated. It has moving parts and a lot to digest. Bribery, on the other hand, is easy to follow. The country pays the bribe to Trump White House, and Trump takes favorable action. The scenario is already under scrutiny after Trump’s $500 million kickback from China.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/15/rachel-maddow-trump-bribery.html

  5. AoE

    I see I have upset your privilege by asking if you agree with a definition supplied on Wikipedia of what Toxic Masculinity is

    You too go the do violence to men extreme to deflect from the definition.

    I thus conclude you are a victim who needs to be liberated by your reaction to a simple question

  6. KayJay says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 11:44 am

    It was not my intention to offend you, although I was aware of it being a possibility.

  7. Absence of Empathy @ #154 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 11:55 am

    bemused says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 10:59 am

    …”No, but I am wondering why you even ask us that question”…


    Obviously YOU have said something to upset Guytaur’s sensibilities.
    No idea what I might have done.

    Guytaur is a very sensitive soul. It could have been anything. But you were named too, so what did you do?

  8. Perhaps, not making outrageous, unfounded and unwarranted attacks on a little old man who, by any account, has not a nasty bone in his body, nor said a single negative thing to you or anyone else ever, might also help.

    Absence of Empathy,
    Hmm, where to start?
    * You are being a tad hypersensitive?
    * I haven’t criticised you, or your offerings, a tenth as much as others, so why pick on me?
    * I’d like to know why you think you should be immune from critical comment if someone believes you have said something with which they disagree?
    * You can be pretty acerbic and aggressive in your pushback yourself. Why do you not apply your own stated standards to yourself?
    * Only the Moderator of the blog can hand down strict rules of engagement on the blog. Not you.

  9. Bemused

    I asked if you agree with a definition supplied by Wikipedia on what Toxic Masculinity is.

    Its you getting upset not me. I am just seeking common ground to talk about a subject

    Note I suggested Donald Trump is a good example of this masculinity. Thus not referring to anyone on this blog

  10. PhoenixRED,
    In other words, Trump will do anything, for anyone, or any country, for money.

    Btw, do you think Mueller’s Terms of Reference can encompass this Qatari scandal?

  11. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 12:06 pm

    AoE

    …”I see I have upset your privilege by asking if you agree with a definition supplied on Wikipedia of what Toxic Masculinity is
    You too go the do violence to men extreme to deflect from the definition.
    I thus conclude you are a victim who needs to be liberated by your reaction to a simple question”…


    1. I was born and grew up in a caravan.
    2. I accepted your definition as accurate.
    3. I have done violence to men, but they were all fuckwits and deserved it.
    4. I have had violence done to me by other men but do not consider myself a “victim” of it.
    5. Your conclusions are all stupid.

  12. guytaur @ #161 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:12 pm

    Bemused

    I asked if you agree with a definition supplied by Wikipedia on what Toxic Masculinity is.

    Its you getting upset not me. I am just seeking common ground to talk about a subject

    Note I suggested Donald Trump is a good example of this masculinity. Thus not referring to anyone on this blog

    Guytaur, I am not the least upset.
    If that is Wikipedia’s definition then it is what it is, their definition.
    Are there any contending definitions? Is ‘toxic masculinity’ something recently defined? Are there other terms for it?
    It seems like just more gibberish and jargon to me.

  13. Mueller Reportedly Investigating Foreign-Linked Donors To Trump’s Inauguration Fund

    The special counsel is looking at contributors tied to Russia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, ABC News says.

    Special counsel Robert Mueller is investigating contributions to Donald Trump’s massive inauguration fund from donors with ties to foreign countries, sources have told ABC News.

    Trump amassed a record $107 million in contributions to his inaugural committee. Previous presidents had kept donations low in an effort to avoid the appearance of selling presidential access — or favors.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/mueller-probing-inaugural-donors-linked-to-foreign-nations_us_5af63f77e4b032b10bfad445

  14. Bemused

    As the definition I posted makes clear its a term being used in Europe and North America.

    Read the definition its very specific

    We are talking about what leads to domestic violence
    I think the word toxic applies to that.

    I also think its a definition that shows it does not apply to all men.

  15. Absence of Empathy @ #163 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:14 pm

    guytaur says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 12:06 pm

    AoE

    …”I see I have upset your privilege by asking if you agree with a definition supplied on Wikipedia of what Toxic Masculinity is
    You too go the do violence to men extreme to deflect from the definition.
    I thus conclude you are a victim who needs to be liberated by your reaction to a simple question”…


    1. I was born and grew up in a caravan.
    2. I accepted your definition as accurate.
    3. I have done violence to men, but they were all fuckwits and deserved it.
    4. I have had violence done to me by other men but do not consider myself a “victim” of it.
    5. Your conclusions are all stupid.

    Well we share 3 and 4. 😀
    Seems like Guytaur may have had a more sheltered life.

  16. guytaur @ #169 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:25 pm

    Bemused

    As the definition I posted makes clear its a term being used in Europe and North America.

    Read the definition its very specific

    We are talking about what leads to domestic violence
    I think the word toxic applies to that.

    I suspect like many others I would have a more colloquial and briefer definition.
    In fact, probably reducing it to one word.

  17. On an annualised, seasonally adjusted basis, the Wage Price Index is up only 2.1 per cent, with private sector workers’ wages up 1.9 per cent, outpaced by a 2.3 per cent increase in pay for the public sector.

    With inflation running at 1.9 per cent, that means in real terms most workers have not seen any growth in their wages over the past year.

    While the market was not expecting much from the March quarter figures, the data was still disappointing, coming in below the consensus forecast of 0.6 per cent growth, while the far-from-impressive December quarter figures were revised down a notch.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-16/wage-price-index-march-quarter-2018/9766438

  18. C@tmomma says: Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 12:14 pm

    PhoenixRED,
    In other words, Trump will do anything, for anyone, or any country, for money.

    Btw, do you think Mueller’s Terms of Reference can encompass this Qatari scandal?

    ********************************************************

    I think what that Federal judge had to say about Paul Manafort – given the authority by Rod Rosenstein – that it would be remiss of him not to investigate ‘other matters’ that may turn up in his investigation.

    Thanks again to Michael Avenatti who posted pictures and videos of events at Trump Tower that involved all the usual suspects plus Qatari ‘diplomats’ ……. and he has more to come – then I think another expose of money matters is going to blow up soon … Flynn, at the meeting, has flipped, Cohen will if he knows what’s good for him – and Manafort is losing too …..

    Michael Avenatti‏Verified account

    This is what I meant by UGLY!!!!! Michael Cohen asked for ‘millions of dollars’ to ‘pass to Trumps’ https://dailym.ai/2Gk94J6 via @MailOnline

    Michael Cohen ‘asked Qatari investor for millions of dollars’ which he said he would ‘pass to Trump family members’ at Trump Tower meeting – and Qatar’s foreign minister was there too

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5732429/Michael-Cohen-asked-millions-dollars-pass-Trump-family-

  19. I don’t see how measuring a NAPLAN score helps. If one school does well, does their funding get cut and diverted to a school that did not do well? If a schools results start improving should we cut their funding? Or do we close the schools that do badly?
    Education outcomes haven’t improved with NAPLAN. It’s just given bureaucrats numbers to stuff around with.
    And you CAN manage things you don’t measure. Often the measuring perverts the process.

  20. bemused says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 12:08

    …”Guytaur is a very sensitive soul. It could have been anything. But you were named too, so what did you do?”…


    I made a fairly tasteless joke, in reference to another comment, about not wishing to have my primary sex organs removed to treat a malady I may or may not be afflicted with.
    This may have caused the offense.

  21. Seems PB has an outbreak of more-virulent-than-usual take-me-seriously-itis.

    Music, ridiculous music, has been suggested as a cure (results of controlled randomised trials pending), so take some advice from this dude:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SHzuKCflrI

    And if that doesn’t work, have a large dose of Ween:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIE2ZoeFZtA

    Alternatively, for the PB country music fans, there’s Ween’s humbly titled “12 Golden Country Greats”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_NfJRLT8NY

    Do try to enjoy it 🙂

  22. AoE

    If it was another comment you could have replied with. Sorry that was not directed at you guytaur. Sorry I put your name at the top

  23. Diogenes @ #177 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:41 pm

    I don’t see how measuring a NAPLAN score helps. If one school does well, does their funding get cut and diverted to a school that did not do well? If a schools results start improving should we cut their funding? Or do we close the schools that do badly?
    Education outcomes haven’t improved with NAPLAN. It’s just given bureaucrats numbers to stuff around with.
    And you CAN manage things you don’t measure. Often the measuring perverts the process.

    Yes, it depends what you measure.
    Establish a set of KPIs and managers will pursue those to the neglect of other matters.
    So appropriate measurements need to be established, along with remedial actions to take corrective action.
    BK will love this, I recommend you read about the Deming Cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDCA

  24. Burgery@11:14am
    The TURC is not established to get any particular union. If they can catch some union that is well and good. The real reason is to put ALP leaders (like Gillard, Shorten) in the witness box to create a perception that they are some how criminally involved. But the main purpose is to get Shorten.
    IMO, ROC was created to get Shorten. Other than pursue and raid AWU, which other organisation did ROC pursue either union or any other organisation

  25. Absence of Empathy @ #178 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:42 pm

    bemused says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 12:08

    …”Guytaur is a very sensitive soul. It could have been anything. But you were named too, so what did you do?”…


    I made a fairly tasteless joke, in reference to another comment, about not wishing to have my primary sex organs removed to treat a malady I may or may not be afflicted with.
    This may have caused the offense.

    I see. Well you referred to removal of your organ, not his, so I am still baffled as to what upset him. 😀

  26. Bemused
    Exactly. I’ve seen that in public hospitals often. They bring in a KPI and then tell you to divert all your resources to improve that and let everyone else suffer.

  27. ‘3. I have done violence to men, but they were all fuckwits and deserved it.
    4. I have had violence done to me by other men but do not consider myself a “victim” of it.’

    This is exactly the problem under discussion.

    Violence on the basis of fuckwittery should not be seen as in any way acceptable.

    Accepting violence done to you also should not be seen as acceptable.

    The ‘toughen up snowflake’ approach to abuse of any form is not acceptable.

    In the past, this kind of response has been used to justify child abuse (both physical and sexual) – “Yeah, dad used to hit me, but it made a man out of me.”

    If you used violence for any reason, you are an abuser. If you had violence inflicted on you, you’re a victim.

    The first you should be ashamed of, the second you shouldn’t be.

  28. Diogenes –

    If one school does well, does their funding get cut and diverted to a school that did not do well?

    If one school does well and another school is not doing well, and you have a limited budget, what do you suggest happens?

    Rather than thinking about ‘cuts’, perhaps it’s better to think of a base funding level, with bonus funding (and some sort of plan of action beyond spending more money) for those schools that are struggling in order to bring them up to scratch. If a school is no longer struggling they don’t need the bonus funding, surely?

  29. The Associated Press‏Verified account @AP

    BREAKING: North Korea official says country has no interest in summit with US if it’s based on ‘one-sided’ demands to give up nuclear weapons

  30. I wonder when Cash will pay attention to her real job.

    Mr Setka and Mr Reardon were charged in 2015 after an investigation by a joint Victorian and federal police unit, following a referral by the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption.

    They had fought hard to get the charges dropped, taking the long-running case to the Supreme Court at one point. They finally succeeded on Wednesday, more than five years after the cafe meeting.

    Later, federal jobs minister Michaelia Cash defended the union royal commission’s legacy. She was asked if the decision was embarrassing for the coalition government, which had pursued the CFMEU through the royal commission and the courts.

    “Absolutely not. That is a matter for the Victorian police,” Senator Cash said.

    “The CFMEU are without [doubt] one of the most notorious, in fact, they are the most notorious union in Australia. I think we’re up to about $14 million in fines.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2018/05/16/blackmail-charges-cfmeu-dropped/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Alert%2020180516

  31. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 12:10 pm

    …”Hmm, where to start?
    * You are being a tad hypersensitive?
    * I haven’t criticised you, or your offerings, a tenth as much as others, so why pick on me?
    * I’d like to know why you think you should be immune from critical comment if someone believes you have said something with which they disagree?
    * You can be pretty acerbic and aggressive in your pushback yourself. Why do you not apply your own stated standards to yourself?
    * Only the Moderator of the blog can hand down strict rules of engagement on the blog. Not you”…


    It was intended as friendly advice, rather than a dictatum and had little if anything to do with me or my sensitivities.
    You made a comment I thought was unfair to a person who is NOT me, and I responded.

    I have no control over how you may perceive a criticism, but I certainly never asked for, nor expected immunity from it myself.
    So, go right ahead and say whatever you feel inclined, I am big boy and more than capable of taking anything you might like to dish up.

  32. Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Tea Pain’s granddaddy Virgil was a wise man. He used to say, “Tea Pain, coincidences take a heap of plannin’.” He sure was right. And speakin’ of coincidences, Tea Pain just stumbled upon a big one.

    SCOOP: Alfa Bank and Cambridge Analytica are back in the headlines. You have got to read Tea Pain’s brand new article. It’ll set your hair on fire!

    Link-> https://teapainusa.wordpress.com/2018/05/16/alfa-bank-scandal-reveals-new-ties-to-russia-cambridge-analytica

  33. Jackol
    If you find that way it means you are rewarding a school that is badly run. If you want to get more funding, you should deliberately get bad NAPLAN scores. If you run a school well and improve, you get resources taken from you.

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