Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential’s post-budget poll records a gentle shift to the Coalition on voting intention, and a generally favourable response to the budget.

Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,158 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 24
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  1. Diogenes –

    If you find that way it means you are rewarding a school that is badly run.

    I expect you’ll find that it’s a bit more complicated than that.

    The system can’t just be that they give more money to badly performing schools – there has to be much greater intervention.

    I imagine much of the bad press about NAPLAN is from the less capable teachers because consistent comparatively bad results for specific teachers is going to result in change of one sort or another.

    And, of course, there is a countervailing pressure inherent in schooling – no student or teacher wants to be seen to be doing badly no matter what the consequence might be.

    In my opinion, though, fundamentally there has to be a mechanism to put more resources into struggling schools, and to do that you have to accurately identify who is struggling, and hopefully get pointers on why. If NAPLAN does this then it is doing its job, if not it should be fixed so that it does.

  2. Diogenes @ #184 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:54 pm

    Bemused
    Exactly. I’ve seen that in public hospitals often. They bring in a KPI and then tell you to divert all your resources to improve that and let everyone else suffer.

    Then they are fools who don’t know how to do things properly.
    And on my experience, they certainly are fools from the top management of Health Departments down.
    Do they know anything at all about Risk Management in SA? I mean apart from paying lip service.

  3. zoomster @ #185 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    ‘3. I have done violence to men, but they were all fuckwits and deserved it.
    4. I have had violence done to me by other men but do not consider myself a “victim” of it.’

    This is exactly the problem under discussion.

    Violence on the basis of fuckwittery should not be seen as in any way acceptable.

    Accepting violence done to you also should not be seen as acceptable.

    The ‘toughen up snowflake’ approach to abuse of any form is not acceptable.

    In the past, this kind of response has been used to justify child abuse (both physical and sexual) – “Yeah, dad used to hit me, but it made a man out of me.”

    If you used violence for any reason, you are an abuser. If you had violence inflicted on you, you’re a victim.

    The first you should be ashamed of, the second you shouldn’t be.

    So if attacked by a “fuckwit” you just cop it?
    What if you have a woman with you who expects your protection?

  5. Watching Bowen @ NPC. Seems to be substantially unchallenged and answering questions well, clearly, without doing anything like a “Mr Shouty Scomo” performance. Leaving to the Libs and the australian to do the hysterics. 🙂

  9. “No wonder Morrison doesn’t want to go head to head with Bowen!”

    He’d be ok so long as he has an assistant to mop up the blood he would lose. 🙂

    Bowen speaking well. Now…whats the bet that the MSM will spin this as:

    “Bowen establishes credibility for ALP leaderhip at the NPC!!”

    “KILL BILL!!!!!!!!” cue Rex?????

  12. So then, ABC cuts off the shadow treasurer to show a Malaysian politician maybe walking out of a building, and people yelling things in Malay (I assume) with no translation, subtitles, or even commentary?

  15. Oh sod this. ABC 24 cut to Malaysia while Bowen in pwning the Govt @ the NPC?? Like, who cares about watching a Malaysian pollie? Relevance??

  21. Indeed, we should all feel privileged for having seen some Malaysian guy walk from a building to a car and drive off. That was super important and relevant to Australia!

  22. A reminder. If you want to see the NPC without interruption watch on the abc channel not the news channel

    Also Ibrahim was expected to speak

  25. a r @ #220 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 1:33 pm

    Indeed, we should all feel privileged for having seen some Malaysian guy walk from a building to a car and driving off. That was super important and relevant to Australia!

    AR

    Not on any side here but that “pollie” is likely to be the next PM of our very near neighbour. It is actually important.

  27. Wage growth figures are in
    Australian workers are continuing to see little improvement in their pay packets, with wages growing only 0.5 per cent in the first three months of the year.

    On an annualised, seasonally adjusted basis, the Wage Price Index is up only 2.1 per cent, with private sector workers’ wages up 1.9 per cent, outpaced by a 2.3 per cent increase in pay for the public sector.So far the government’s budget forecasts are not looking good.

    http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-16/wage-price-index-march-quarter-2018/9766438?section=business

  28. daretotread.

    Important yes but a ticker tape message across the bottom of the screen would suffice until they could show a fuller item on it.

  29. “Blackmail charges against Victorian CFMEU bosses dropped”

    Why in the Guardian are union leaders ‘bosses’ and company bosses ‘leaders’?

  30. daretotread. @ #226 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 1:35 pm

    Not on any side here but that “pollie” is likely to be the next PM of our very near neighbour. It is actually important.

    Nah. I mean, it may have been if he had actually said or done something. Or if the ABC had provided running commentary about what was happening. Or maybe if I could understand Malay.

    But since none of those things occurred, airing that particular scene at that particular moment in that particular manner was really quite bizarre and pointless.

    Without context it’s literally just video of some guy walking to a car and driving off with shouting noises in the background. Like a bad college art project, or something.

  31. With only 15% of workers in unions,I’m not surprised wages are flat.I would never have had a pay rise in my working life if it wasn’t for unions.

  32. lizzie @ #193 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:01 am

    I wonder when Cash will pay attention to her real job.

    Mr Setka and Mr Reardon were charged in 2015 after an investigation by a joint Victorian and federal police unit, following a referral by the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption.

    They had fought hard to get the charges dropped, taking the long-running case to the Supreme Court at one point. They finally succeeded on Wednesday, more than five years after the cafe meeting.

    Later, federal jobs minister Michaelia Cash defended the union royal commission’s legacy. She was asked if the decision was embarrassing for the coalition government, which had pursued the CFMEU through the royal commission and the courts.

    “Absolutely not. That is a matter for the Victorian police,” Senator Cash said.

    “The CFMEU are without [doubt] one of the most notorious, in fact, they are the most notorious union in Australia. I think we’re up to about $14 million in fines.”

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2018/05/16/blackmail-charges-cfmeu-dropped/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Alert%2020180516

    So after holding a Royal Commission into Union behaviour all Cash has to criticise Unions about is the fines that this Government has imposed on Unions when they stand up for workers safety and rights.

    But still Unions are bad!!!

    On the other hand after about a month of the Banking RC hearings the credibility of the Big 4 and AMP has been seriously dented with Council Assisting suggesting there are grounds for criminal charges and other punitive actions against them.

    But still business can really do no wrong!!!

    That highlights the problem for this mob that everything is ideologically driven and evidence counts for nought!!!!

  33. AR

    The context was provided. In fact that context is on the Chyron now.

    If the other channel had not been broadcasting the NPC as well I would agree with you about running just the Chyron underneath the NPC address

  37. Re Anne Frank.

    There is the (probably untrue), story of a production of the play in London, it was bad, very bad.
    By the time of the scene where the Germans arrived to search the house, the audience, having had enough, yelled as one: “she’s in the attic”.

  38. Crikey

    News Corp papers this morning backed up the government’s cuts to the ABC with an “exclusive” reheat of seven-month old figures on senior ABC salaries, consultancies and bonuses, first published in the ABC’s annual report way back in last October.

    If the government’s 12-month early announcement of the impending ABC funding freeze was a pre-election message of support to the media oligopolies, today’s News Corp reports can be read as a clear response: “message received!”

  39. The courts have also quashed the charged against CFMEU leader Setka.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-16/blackmail-charges-against-construction-union-bosses-dropped-by/9766648

    I wonder if it is also not too late to review the question of charging anyone over the deaths of three people in a wall collapse in Melbourne? I suspect one good wind expert from a Melbourne uni civil engineering faculty could soon get to the bottom of whether or not there was any offence involved.

  40. zoom
    Yes that is probably the one. I think Sophie can take comfort from the fact that, through all of this process, her true nature has been well and truly on display.

  41. Sohar @ #229 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    “Blackmail charges against Victorian CFMEU bosses dropped”

    Why in the Guardian are union leaders ‘bosses’ and company bosses ‘leaders’?

    Absolutely.
    Now, will those Union Leaders and their organisation have their costs met and be compensated for reputational and other damage?
    Will those making false accusations now be charged?
    Will the f*ckwit DPP person authorising prosecution get a (metaphorical) boot up the arse?

    Nope.

  43. Socrates @ #234 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 1:45 pm

    Given the nature of Australia’s libel laws, I can do no more than offer my congratulations to Sophie Mirabella on her victory in her defamation case.

    Knowing Sophie’s generosity of spirit, it will also be fascinating to see which charity she decides to donate the money to? Tell us Sophie.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/16/sophie-mirabella-awarded-175000-in-defamation-damages

    If she has to pay her costs, she may not end up with much at all.

  44. Apparently the statement released by North Korea is blaming John Bolton. Calling Trump the puppet of war monger Bolton.
    _____
    They may well have a point!

  45. bemused
    “If she has to pay her costs, she may not end up with much at all.”

    If so, that tragedy would reduce me to tears 🙂

  46. How do you get $175,000 for a defamation that was “not particularly serious”. I suspect there is gonna be an appeal. Be interesting to see if Sophie was offered more than $175,000. If she knocked that back SHE will be paying the costs.

  47. With only 15% of workers in unions,I’m not surprised wages are flat.

    And that stat only tells half the story. I am told the make up of the unionised workforce has become more white collar – workers who are perhaps less needy of collective bargaining.

    There are a lot of people out there fighting lone (and losing) battles with our dearly beloved capitalist bosses/leaders.

  50. The_AiGroup
    What a load of shit.They need to look at unpaid overtime statistics and the under employment of workers befor they jump to that conclusion.

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