Essential Research has broken with its usual fortnightly schedule to publish a second poll in consecutive weeks, giving us a third set of numbers on response to the budget after Newspoll and Ipsos. The poll records the two-party gap narrowing from 53-47 in Labor’s favour to 52-48, although the primary votes are little changed: the Coalition are steady on 38%, Labor down a point to 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up one to 7%. Results on the budget are in line with Newspoll and Ipsos in suggesting a favourable response, particularly compared with the budgetary norm, with 44% expressing approval and 28% disapproval, and 28% saying it made them more confident in the economy, compared with 23% for less confident. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the tax cuts was muted (only 22% expected they would make a difference to their household), and further questions identified concerns about their equity. Full results here.
lizzie @ #94 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:14 am
Yep.
Observer @ #48 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 8:55 am
They have stubbornly refused to allow the civilian population who fled the fighting in 1948, or their descendants, to return to claim their homes and property in Israel.
This is like the behaviour of the Nazis in Poland.
If that offends anyone, too bad.
Rolling Liberal Party infomercials on ABC24 again this morning.
Who says Turnbull is waiting until next year for an election?
No comment from anyone?
My money is on an early election.
Turnbull doing a presser in Hobart making an announcement of funding for Tasmania.
Political Alert tweets
Minister for Social Services @DanTehanWannon and Member for Canning Andrew Hastie will announce the details of the $10 million treatment fund for the drug testing trial at 11am AEST, Mandurah #auspol
They are rolling out the pork barrel.
KayJay @ #7 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 7:45 am
Thanks KayJay. Without reading the articles my summary of the headlines: Bill is bad; We don’t like Bill; ABC is bad; No-one likes Malcolm; Bill is bad; OMG crime & daughters; Ohh Jerusalem; Kim is trouble; Ooh a Royal wedding; Not Israel’s fault; Nostalgic heroes; Sports trouble. (Unlimited access must be quite unnerving.)
What on earth is SloMo trying to say?
citizen
That Scott Morrison hates dairy farmers with his attack on the use of milk in coffee
Amazing how the Liberal Party can manufacture chumminess whilst being cruel and heartless. Eg Federal and Tasmanian Liberals wrt the Homeless in that State. I wonder how many of the Homeless will get the jobs being dangled in front of the noses of the electors of Tasmania wrt the Cradle Mountain Cableway? I’m guessing approximately zero.
Confessions @ #63 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 9:20 am
Hypocrisy and cant writ large. 😆
lizzie @ #104 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:23 am
Whatever happened to the ROC raid on the AWU’s offices and the subsequent court case to get access to Michaelia Cash’s department papers?
@ citizen – I suspect that’s “almond latte”, which has been poorly treated by voice to text software.
DTT@8:34am
Are you surprised? How do you think jewish state is surviving?
1. Under the US umbrella (I read an article sometime ago where the authors(Americans) described how Israel is not economically and strategically important but protects it anyway)
2. Isrealis created this atmosphere in western countries that critisizing Israel is anti-semetic. How many people realise that Chistianity, Islam and Judaism are semetic religions.
3. Doing takedowns like described in above article(Cambridge Analytica is a kid when compared to Israel)
4. We all know Israel has atom bomb
5. Yes Israel is a democracy. How can democracy survive if we do not support Israel in a region of muslim autocracy and dictatorship? Yes I support Israel democracy.
3. The one cause at least till recently that unites muslim world irrespective of which country the muslims belong is Palestanian cause (what about recent doings of Saudi Arabia who are dubiously aligning with Israel you may say. Well that is another story). They show their anger in some other way.
lizzie
Unfortunately all those acres of front page newsprint screaming “Unionists charged with Blackmail” and hours of TV “news” programs shouting the same have done their work. For the government it is still mission accomplished, unions slimed. This development will hardly attract attention let alone counter the impression left by the original “news” of “criminal union bosses”.
C@tmomma @ #103 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:22 am
They have to make up for the fact that they had Chris Bowen on AM this morning for his bi-monthly appearance.
Bemused AoE
Do you dispute the definition of Toxic Masculinity?
Look at it and see why the LNP and other right wing people are losing votes.
There is a lot of women out there.
Voice Endeavour says:
Doing a voice to text of Scrott Morrison in full ‘babble’ would be a “test to the point of destruction” for any such software
don @ #78 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 6:56 am
It’s a very different thing teaching to the curriculum and teaching to a test.
Sure you familiarise students with the test format that’s only sensible as you want them to be as comfortable as possible when they take it but to make NAPLAN performance the focus of your teaching is not what it was meant to be about. 🙂
CFMEU tweets
Shaun Reardon and John Setka to speak outside Magistrates court in next 15 mins. DPP set to withdraw blackmail charges against the pair. #auspol #ausunions
Funny how Murdoch’s Oz has heard of Mirabella’s payout but seems to have missed the withdrawal of charges against CFMEU officials.
I firmly believe that the Coalition will go to the election soon once the new electoral boundaries are finalised. Anytime between August and October, I am favouring October because the campaign will overlap with the AFL and NRL finals. That will mean several months of the current senate still sitting, until the new one takes over on 1 July 2019.
Zoidlord @ #91 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:10 am
Nothing to do with the Government and Ms Mirabella my end up being badly bitten by that outcome.
BigD:
Sure you familiarise students with the test format that’s only sensible as you want them to be as comfortable as possible when they take it but to make NAPLAN performance the focus of your teaching is not what it was meant to be about
If NAPLAN results are used as a de facto measure of your teaching ability, which they can be, ‘what teaching is meant to be about’ is thrown out the window, if it conflicts with good results in the NAPLAN test.
On the plus side, it does not have to be thrown out the window. It is certainly possible to teach a course such that the objectives of the curriculum are covered, students are completely engaged and enjoy the course, as well as preparing students well for the NAPLAN test. These goals are not mutually exclusive, as some seem to think.
https://www.rbth.com/society/2015/05/01/how_trade_unions_fare_in_russia_42927
Workers’ ability to organise freely and represent themselves collectively is severely restricted by legislation and state action in Russia….
…..Kudyukin said the greatest difficulty in developing the trade union movement in Russia today is legislation, according to which it is practically impossible to hold a strike or come to an agreement with an employer.
“If we have less than half of the workers in the enterprise as members, then they are limited in their rights for collective negotiations. And it is practically impossible to organize a legal strike”, he says.
It is interesting that Russian trade unions are now recognized on an international level, whereas earlier, in the Soviet period, they were not taken seriously as organisations.
Putin/LNP…same/same
lizzie @ #94 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:14 am
Jon Faine said it was her own money this morning and was inviting the State shadow Treasurer to contribute a similar amount, much to his apparent embarrassment as he tried to wriggle out of it.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 10:13 am
…”On the Domestic Violence this is a real thing”…
…”Toxic masculinity”…
…
I was very concerned about this yesterday, so I made an urgent appointment with my Doctor this morning.
Doctor told me that she would be more than happy to perform an immediate castration (for a nominal fee) however, she also said that the success rate of this procedure, in curing “toxic masculinity” was fairly low and I would likely remain a raging, misogynist pig for the rest of my days.
Sad…
So, we’ve now had a slew of post-Budget opinion polls, so what do they tell us? In truth, not much that we didn’t already know – both the major parties have primary votes in the high 30s, Labor is a little ahead on the 2PP, and there is some evidence that this lead is slightly narrowing (though all the recent movements have been within a typical margin or error). Anecdotally, you’d probably surmise that the support of either party is pretty soft, and could easily drop quickly (though probably only to about 35% or so) in the event of some sort of development.
Truffles has a few windows over the next twelve months for the next election: early-August to mid-October this year (ahead of the Victorian election in late November, footy finals notwithstanding), February (ahead of the NSW election in March), and late April to mid-May. I’ve always been of the view that if the polls don’t move (and they may yet revert to the average over the last 18 months once the Budget washes through the system) that we won’t get to vote until this time next year, but if the “narrowing” appears sustained, Turnbull is enough of a gambler (see DD election, 2016) to throw the dice for a Spring poll. Whether that works out for him is an open question.
For reasons unrelated to the current political situation, I’d like to see the election delayed until next year. I find that when the election is due in late part of the year, the political class talks about nothing else for the entirety of that year, but when it is in, say, March, the normal summer torpor means that governments can continue to “govern” (as opposed to electioneering) all the way to Christmas the previous year. That said, I am currently on my son’s school’s P&C, and, living in NSW, it would be better for us to have one election this year, and another next year (election day is a great fund-raiser for most schools).
lizzie says:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 10:17 am
…”Absence of Empathy
Do you really not understand?”…
…
Lizzie, I really don’t, no.
ACOSS
@ACOSS
42s42 seconds ago
Drug addiction is a health issue, not a social security issue. There is NO evidence showing drug testing income support recipients benefits the person affected or society. The government can do better. https://www.acoss.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/ACOSS-briefing-note_Drug-Testing_Mar-2018_2.pdf … #auspol
don @ #125 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 7:48 am
Which is not what NAPLAN was designed for.
I agree as I said in another comment but NAPLAN should never be THE end goal.
guytaur @ #117 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 10:32 am
No, but I am wondering why you even ask us that question.
Justice Department and F.B.I. Are Investigating Cambridge Analytica
The Justice Department and the F.B.I. are investigating Cambridge Analytica, the now-defunct political data firm, and have sought to question former employees and banks that handled its business, according to an American official and other people familiar with the inquiry.
The investigation compounds the woes of a firm that has come under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators in the United States and Britain since The New York Times and Observer in London reported in March that it had harvested private data from more than 50 million Facebook profiles, and that it may have violated American election laws.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/15/us/cambridge-analytica-federal-investigation.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics&action=click&contentCollection=politics®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=sectionfront
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 10:20 am
…”Let me clarify for you, Absence of Empathy, as you don’t appear to have comprehended what I was referring to.
I was NOT referring to abused women that support abusive males due to fear of further retribution, or Stockholm Syndrome.
I WAS referring to women, especially on blogs and social media, but also in the wider community, who weigh into a discussion about violence against women, verbal or physical, by men, to support the male sex, and to craft apologia for them, often due to the female’s bias against or dislike of, the woman, or women, being abused. Or even more generally because they can see a path of advancement for themselves as a result of their vocal support of the male. Or due to their cockamamie religious beliefs.
I hope that has cleared it up for you”…
…
Yes, Thank you for the clarification.
May I suggest that you spend less time on those fora you describe, and more time ensconced in the warm glowing, warming glow of this place, where never an unfriendly word is spoken by anyone.
Perhaps, not making outrageous, unfounded and unwarranted attacks on a little old man who, by any account, has not a nasty bone in his body, nor said a single negative thing to you or anyone else ever, might also help.
Mirabella is so obviously sensitive to hurt feelings. And as for aiding males in the abuse of females. Perish.
The collapse of the case against the CFMEU is hilarious. What a ridiculous waste of money that Royal Commission was.
Cathy Wilcox and asymmetry.
lizzie @ #141 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 11:14 am
Just what they wanted I would imagine.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/government-sell-off-threatens-accuracy-of-weather-radars-bureau-of-meteorology-warns-20180515-p4zfdz.html
guytaur says:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018 at 10:32 am
…”Do you dispute the definition of Toxic Masculinity?”…
…
Not at all.
Donald Trump is definitely filthy, sexist old prick.
I do dispute the idea that Donald, or anyone of his ilk, regularly resides in this place.
What was NAPLAN really designed for? It compares how schools do in the test. How does that translate into better education?
Powerful message from Wilcox and earlier from Rowe, thanks BK.
All this at a time when the evangelical vote behind Trump consolidates at 75% support, as they await the return of Jesus and the rapture, seeing the sins of their President as confirmation he is their god’s man.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/15/donald-trump-evangelicals-christian-right-jerusalem
” This development will hardly attract attention let alone counter the impression left by the original “news” of “criminal union bosses”.”
We do on the other hand have the developing “criminal bank bosses” theme establishing itself nicely. 🙂
The next cab off the rank for the Govt will be trying to smear Union involvement in Industry Super Funds as part of their general thrust and to support their position on “Independent Directors” with anything that comes out about super funds in the RC. I suspect they will have a problem with that, and will have to deal with more fallout when retail funds (associated with banks ) get examined.
Maybe the Industry Funds can do better by their members? Fine, look at that. But they have already been shown to do better by their members than retail funds, i think, because their culture is different. And a lot of the probs already flagged with the banks and AMP are ALL about culture and attitude.
@Diogenes.
You gotta measure performance so you can judge whether policies are improving, or worsening things.
Diogenes @ #145 Wednesday, May 16th, 2018 – 11:27 am
There is an old adage that “What you cannot measure, you cannot manage” or WTTE.
So it is an attempt to measure performance so that management and direction of resources can be improved.
Whether it is the best way of doing that, or whether it is at all effective, I don’t know.
Don can answer such questions.
The executive producer of QandA has just tweeted, “Today the #QandA team are getting together to talk about the people we really want to see on the panel. Got any suggestions?”
I replied with, “We have plenty of ides of who we DON’T want to see. For example, Judith Sloan, any IPA hack, Rowan Dean, Gerard and Ann Henderson, Graham Morris. It’s people who are experts in their field that we want rather than opinionistas and mouthpieces for hire.”