YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Some encouraging poll news for the government from Queensland, as the Western Australian Liberals opt to sit out the Perth and Fremantle by-elections.

The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:

Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.

It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.

Also noted:

• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.

• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).

• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

527 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

Comments Page 8 of 11
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  2. Morrison was given at least 2.5 minutes uninterrupted rant time on the midday ABC television news today, saying nothing of consequence while emitting a seemingly never ending stream of projectile bile, but then Shorten was given about the same time uninterrupted to rail about requiring car manufacturers to supply all mechanics, not just their dealers, with repair manual material.

    The nodding head behind Shorten was a queer looking cove though …

  4. @Sexy Rexy 4:14pm. Cleaving to TheGreens making perfect the enemy of the good, as usual. You are a waste of space.

  6. bemused

    Post war Commonwealth countries would have been awash with them. Back in the day a ‘slug gun’ would have also been in the usual mix. One for the kids before graduating to 22 then 303. My uncle let me fire his 303 when I was about ten. What it did to my shoulder made me not want to use one again ……….and I never did 🙂

  8. poroti @ #356 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 4:33 pm

    bemused

    Post war Commonwealth countries would have been awash with them. Back in the day a ‘slug gun’ would have also been in the usual mix. One for the kids before graduating to 22 then 303. My uncle let me fire his 303 when I was about ten. What it did to my shoulder made me not want to use one again 🙂

    😀
    The first time I fired anything heavier than a .22 was in the RAAF when I fired an SLR 7.62mm Cal.
    Probably similar kick to a .303.

  9. poroti @ #351 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 2:25 pm

    OMFG !! Peak flim flamery has arrived. If the MSM do not shred the Coalition on this then they are truly not fit for purpose.

    Coalition says costings for budget’s tax measures too ‘unreliable’ to release

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/13/coalition-says-costings-for-budgets-tax-measures-too-unreliable-to-release

    LOL you know the budget is a dud when not even a week after it’s been announced they are trying to run away from it!!

  11. @Paroti

    “Omnishambles. Such a wonderful word. All hail The Thick of It writer who came up with it.

    A clip from the program re omnishambles and wadda ya know the first word uttered is ‘Malcolm’

    The Thick of It – omnishambles
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pOqqyFH7cU”

    Ah … The Thick of It. Watching selected clips whilst quaffing a good Shiraz on a cold Friday evening whilst simultaneously keeping up to date with Poll Bludger can get one into trouble.

    In my case poor DTT copped a serve. Sorry. I don’t usually poke inmates in Bedlam, but I was channelling my inner Malcolm Tucker. Hubris. I think I might have actually hurt your feelings, and for that DTT I am truly sorry. I will do better in the future and simply revert to scrolling on by your omnishambles. …

  12. bOERWAR is totally correct in warning of long term plans by gun lobby groups in Australia with NRA support and guidance, to import USA gun culture in Australia. They have already weakened our gun laws. I have posted links more than once but got not much response.

    https://www.guncontrolaustralia.org/
    There is a starting link. Now get off your backsides and start doing stuff to protect our kids or don’t call yourselves Progressives.

    And even if you like and use guns, that is not a pass on supporting tougher gun control laws.

  13. McGowan publicly using the ‘farm’ excuse effectively goes some way to pre-empting the Coronial Inquest.

    Is the Coroner supposed to accept that farms and guns automatically go together? He may well beg to differ.

    The Coroner will certainly take note of the number of weapons. The Act requires a genuine reason for one and for more weapons. The Coroner will inquire whether the minimum calibre requirements were adequately covered during the licencing process.

    Who said (hobby) farmers need three guns?

    (What brands and what mixture of rifle and/or shotgun remain to be seen).

    Here is the guts of the legal requirements as they apply to WA:

    ‘The Western Australia Firearms Act 1973 requires the registration of firearms and the licensing of persons to possess them.

    The Act requires that the Commissioner not approve a licence or permit:

    where it is not desirable in the interests of public safety; or
    the person is not a fit and proper person to hold the approval, permit, or licence.

    In particular the Commissioner will take into account:

    circumstances that indicate that a person has a history of, or a tendency towards, violent behaviour,
    fails to meet standards of mental or physical fitness; or
    suspects that the person is a threat to public safety

    The act also requires that a person have both a genuine reason and a genuine need to possess a firearm.’

    The ‘genuine’ issue will be of considerable interest in this case. As does the issue of whether the murderer in this case EVER uttered any threat of violence to ANYONE under ANY circumstances.

    If the murderer used an Adler Shotgun in his mass murder then the issue of what ‘genuine’ need there was for him, or anyone else for that matter, will come into play very strongly indeed.

    Why would anyone have access to something that can kill five people in less than 10 seconds and (after a ten minute modification) 11 people in 15 seconds.

    It is good to know that the ACT Labor Government has ensured that the ACT has probably the strictest restrictions on the Adler.

  15. The case – brought by Friends of Leadbeater’s Possum – is based on the failure by VicForests to abide by the Code of Practice for Timber Production 2014, the regulations governing timber harvesting.

    Yet the regulatory breaches cited to the court only scratch the surface. The Rubicon Forest Protection Group presented evidence to the current review of Victorian Regional Forest Agreements showing clear-felled areas far larger than permitted; blackberries rampant and unchecked; washouts on steep slopes that should not have been logged; the popular Rubicon Historic Area logged; tourist roads left with no buffers; retained trees killed in regeneration burns; springs and ephemeral watercourses logged and silted.

    As well as such breaches of the code, other provisions of the Central Highlands RFA have been breached, including failure to adopt sustainable harvest levels by Forest Management Area (FMA) and failure to implement a proper system of forest reserves. By maintaining accreditation of Victoria’s forest management system in the face of these breaches the Commonwealth Government has breached its RFA obligations.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/a-ray-of-hope-in-the-fight-against-unsustainable-logging-20180511-p4zeqd.html

  16. I see that they now have an artificial wave making thingie which means that surfers no longer need to go and play with the sharks.
    They may want to play around the settings of the wave maker to include some random elements because the waves look absolutely predictable.

  17. Speaking of The Greens, via Rex’s electrifying utterings 😉 , has anyone from the party come out yet to condemn the permission that Josh Frydenburg gave to whoever the environment destroyer is that wants to bulldoze 2000(20000? 200000?) hectares of pristine North Queensland land?

  18. C
    I believe he is considering the application. If his Department has advised him that it sees no real reason why the clearing should not go ahead, it will create severe legal problems down the road if he does not follow the advice.
    Five years of Hunt and FrythePlanet have effectively gutted the Federal Environment Department if it is now giving advice that clearing habitat of endangered species and increasing the siltation problems of the Great Barrier Reef are not of concern.

  21. puffytmd @ #362 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 4:46 pm

    bOERWAR is totally correct in warning of long term plans by gun lobby groups in Australia with NRA support and guidance, to import USA gun culture in Australia. They have already weakened our gun laws. I have posted links more than once but got not much response.

    https://www.guncontrolaustralia.org/
    There is a starting link. Now get off your backsides and start doing stuff to protect our kids or don’t call yourselves Progressives.

    And even if you like and use guns, that is not a pass on supporting tougher gun control laws.

    Do you advocate the total prohibition of all firearms in Australia other than by military and police?

    If you are pursuing such an impractical proposition then I am not with you.

    If you accept there can be legitimate reasons for civilians to possess and use firearms, then we are just arguing about where the line is drawn and it won’t be far from where it is at present.

  22. Five years of Hunt and FrythePlanet have effectively gutted the Federal Environment Department if it is now giving advice that clearing habitat of endangered species and increasing the siltation problems of the Great Barrier Reef are not of concern.

    Amen (or Amun?)

  23. Boerwar @ #366 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    I see that they now have an artificial wave making thingie which means that surfers no longer need to go and play with the sharks.
    They may want to play around the settings of the wave maker to include some random elements because the waves look absolutely predictable.

    I will be taking my granddaughters to a wavepool next Sunday. But no surfers allowed. 😀

  24. Here is a clip of an unmodified Adler and the rate of fire it can generate:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wScsEBRPmho

    Shotgun slugs (solid shot, as opposed to bird shot) at short range also deliver more energy to the target than somewhat equivalent rifle bullets. That is to say, in the parlance of the gunnies, the killing power is greater.

    In relation to guns as the preferred means of delivering domestic violence (generally delivered at close range), the modified Adler is probably the deadliest weapon around.

    I do hope that the Coroner gives some consideration to the plague of domestic violence in Australia and the likelihood that more guns and more deadly guns spread through more of the community is relatively more likely to lead to deaths.

  25. In Western Australia 2.6 million people own around 300,000 guns. That is the legal situation. The illegal situation is also a matter of concern.

    There are NOT 300,000 farms in Western Australia!

  26. Boerwar @ #374 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:05 pm

    Here is a clip of an unmodified Adler and the rate of fire it can generate:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wScsEBRPmho

    Shotgun slugs (solid shot, as opposed to bird shot) at short range also deliver more energy to the target than somewhat equivalent rifle bullets. That is to say, in the parlance of the gunnies, the killing power is greater.

    In relation to guns as the preferred means of delivering domestic violence (generally delivered at close range), the modified Adler is probably the deadliest weapon around.

    I do hope that the Coroner gives some consideration to the plague of domestic violence in Australia and the likelihood that more guns and more deadly guns spread through more of the community is relatively more likely to lead to deaths.

    Big deal!
    Would that be any faster than a Winchester lever action rifle? Nope.
    How fast can a Lee-Enfield .303 bolt action rifle be fired?
    20 – 30 aimed shots per minute – one every 2 – 3 seconds.

  27. Australia’s Cate Blanchett joined 81 women to climb the steps of the Palais des Festivals at the Cannes Film Festival in an unprecedented red carpet protest to press for improved gender equality in the film industry.

    The number of stars, filmmakers and film industry professionals ascending the steps represented the number of female filmmakers who have been selected to compete at Cannes during the festival’s seven-decade history.

    In contrast to their 82, 1,866 films directed by men have been picked for the prestigious festival line-up.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-13/cannes-2018-female-stars-protest-on-red-carpet-for-equal-rights/9756232

    Perhaps coalition women MPs need to do something similar to remind their male colleagues that women do exist and can make worthwhile contributions to parliament.

  28. Bemused
    Stop building strawman arguments. I never mentioned what gun control measures, at all.
    Going back to what we had in Howard’s time would be a good start.
    Did you follow the link and work out how you can get off your arske and do something about the rising levels of guns in our society?

    If not, don’t expect me to debate the hows with you like some armchair debate while people die.

  29. Boerwar:

    I can’t imagine why any hobby farmer would need to own three firearms. One should surely suffice.

  30. What is the “genuine need” for anybody to have an automatic rifle? For hunting, go back to bolt actions, I reckon.

  31. puffytmd @ #378 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:11 pm

    Bemused
    Stop building strawman arguments. I never mentioned what gun control measure at all.
    Going back to what we had in Howard’s time would be a good start.
    Did you follow the links and work out how you can get off your arske and do something about the rising levels of guns in our society?

    If not, don’t expect me to debate the hows with you like some armchair debate while people die.

    What percentage of violent deaths in Australia are caused by guns?
    Get some perspective.
    How have gun laws been weakened since Howard?
    Mere fiddling at the margins.

  32. lizzie @ #318 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    I’d agree.

    Tory MP and co-chair of the ANZAC Parliamentary friendship group Andrew Rosindell said the ban on dual citizens, especially those with British citizenship, was absurd given the two countries “blood ties” and their shared head of state.

    He said the constitution would never have been intended to exclude those with a British heritage from parliament.

    “Clearly this was an error that was unforeseen and unintended,” he said.

    “It’s utterly absurd when you consider the deep closeness and intertwined relationship for many centuries – how we can now look at it in 2018 and try and unpick this – it makes no sense whatsoever and I hope a solution could be found to allow dual nationalities, there are no two countries other than Canada and New Zealand who have so much in common.

    Truly sorry, but I disagree. Australia is not an outpost of Great Britain. Hopefully we have grown up. Many, many Australians are not of British extraction, and any special exemption for British nationality is an insult to those who do not have such ties. (The fixation on the British Royal Family is more than enough.)

  33. Boerwar,
    I am in furious agreement with you. Considering the levels of domestic violence men perpetrate against women in this country, I do not know how any of them can expect to have the privilege of owning a gun.

    Yes, Bemused, women commit family violence too, and murder their families, we know, we know. yada yada yada

    But the bulk of the violence is by men on women and on other men. How the hell do you allow such a group access to deadly ballistic weapons designed for one purpose, to kill?

  36. Bemused,
    Get off your arske and answer your own questions. Find out how many deaths and how the laws have been weakened.

    If you are interested, if you care.

    If you are a responsible gun owner, or have been, then you have more obligation to know these things than others. If you don’t know, that makes you part of the problem, as your ignorance gives succour to the NRA-supported anti-gun control lobby in this country.

  37. Peter Anderson‏ @PJA2536

    Labor cries foul after Simon Birmingham compares Tafe changes to subsidised ‘basket weaving’ — @Birmo you bloody muppet, I did my engineering trade and tertiary qualifications at TAFE! So now it’s Ok to insult voters because of where they studied? #auspol

  38. Lovey,
    “Ban men”
    Not yet, we need living sperm banks.

    But animal husbandry (what a strange term for animal farming!) does include proven methods to fix out-of-control male animals. :devil: 👿 😀

  39. Lovey @ #380 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:13 pm

    What is the “genuine need” for anybody to have an automatic rifle? For hunting, go back to bolt actions, I reckon.

    Automatic rifles have never been legal in Australia.
    Semi-automatic or self loading were, but are no longer.
    Bolt action would be the most common action for rifles with some lever action.
    Borewar has a fetish about one particular make of shotgun because it is lever action.

  40. puffytmd @ #383 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    Boerwar,
    I am in furious agreement with you. Considering the levels of domestic violence men perpetrate against women in this country, I do not know how any of them can expect to have the privilege of owning a gun.

    Yes, Bemused, women commit family violence too, and murder their families, we know, we know. yada yada yada

    But the bulk of the violence is by men on women and on other men. How the hell do you allow such a group access to deadly ballistic weapons designed for one purpose, to kill?

    What percentage of violent deaths in Australia are caused by firearms?

  41. puffytmd @ #386 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:26 pm

    Bemused,
    Get off your arske and answer your own questions. Find out how many deaths and how the laws have been weakened.

    If you are interested, if you care.

    If you are a responsible gun owner, or have been, then you have more obligation to know these things than others. If you don’t know, that makes you part of the problem, as your ignorance gives succour to the NRA-supported anti-gun control lobby in this country.

    I am not a gun owner and I no longer have a shooters licence.
    I am fairly happy with gun restrictions as they are but would certainly like to hear any sensible proposals to fix any perceived weaknesses.
    So far I have heard none.

  43. Bemused

    Acknowledged, and it is not an issue in this case, anyway.

    I seem to recall in my youth my fathers rifle had to be reloaded after one shot. Of course this won’t be imposed, my comment was about the actual need that hunters put forward for repeating rifles. It seemed they needed a rifle to enable hunting/control, and it needed to be able to refire in the interests of self-defence, ie when they missed their first shot!

  44. Puffy

    The presence of guns magnifies the real or implied threat in any domestic violence situation.

    It is why country police absolutely hate going to farm domestics.

  45. lizzie @ #384 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    Late Riser

    My later post said that I agree that anyone could have dual nationality without penalty.

    Yeah. I saw that after I had posted. I wasn’t aiming my post at you so much as a general comment about a pervasive attitude towards Britain. You may have guessed that my background is not British, nevertheless in Australia you need a good grounding in British culture. I accept that but it can get tiresome. But back to the idea of citizenship, for me the whole concept of ‘loyalty’ is difficult. How do you prove it?

  48. Late Riser

    But back to the idea of citizenship, for me the whole concept of ‘loyalty’ is difficult. How do you prove it?

    Absolutely agree that it is immeasurable. People born in a country are not necessarily loyal to it, or there’d be no spies or rebels of any kind. In fact, those who profess to support a country can do it great harm, for example many of the current govt.

  49. The father is clearly in shock. If I were him I wouldn’t be anywhere near as gracious, or perhaps he exhibits his anger in private. He was reportedly in a bitter custody dispute with his ex partner, and at one point Cynda Miles said to him that Katrina would ensure he never saw his kids again. The Premier has said he will wait for the coroner’s report to see if any legislative change re gun laws is recommended.

    “I still love who Peter was,” Mr Cockman told reporters in Margaret River on Sunday, marking the first time he had spoken publicly about the tragedy.

    “If it wasn’t for him, I wouldn’t have Katrina, I wouldn’t have her kids.

    “It’s not some random guy off the street who’s taken them away from me – he gave them to me and now he’s taken them away.

    “If it had to happen, there is no better person than that.

    “Peter didn’t snap. He’s thought this through. I think he’s been thinking this through for a long time. All the kids died peacefully in their beds.

    “They looked all peaceful. How the hell Peter did that, I still can’t figure out. He did a good job. He did a really good job.”

    https://thewest.com.au/news/south-west/margaret-river-shootings-shattered-father-aaron-cockman-faces-media-ng-b88834618z

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