Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.
• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.
• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.
• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.
I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.
• The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.
• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.
• The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)
• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).
Pence has recently been whining about Mueller’s investigation going on too long and how it needs to be wrapped up. However I was reading that special counsel’s investigation has produced 75 criminal charges overall, including:
5 guilty pleas
1 person sentenced
23 defendants
Surely the party of law and order and national security would be championing this diligence, not running it down?
I trust that the 2% tax cut already given to the very highest income individuals by the Coalition has not been forgotten.
Boerwar
Hopefully the weather will ease up by time game starts.
Had 5 funerals over one month. The one that has thrown me, was a friend who passed away suddenly from blood clot. She was a few days shy of her 50th. Her husband and children are having a really tough time coming to terms.
It has been 8 months since my dear brother in-law passed away and especially for my sister, it hasn’t got any easier for her. So I can see how difficult it is going to be for my dearly departed friends family.
Thanks for asking…
V
Tough emotional stuff. Best wishes.
@ Victoria & booleanbach
“Nothing to be concerned about.
Pence is going down with Trump. He won’t be president”
Mmmnnn. I’m not so sanguine.
I’m pretty sure Gilead is meant to represent America in the second term of a Pence Presidency …
Unless he’s up to his nuts with Russian gangsters as well, he’ll ascend to the Oval Office later this year or early next is my prediction. …
Greensborough Growler @ #404 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 3:54 pm
Great Scott ❗ At first glance I took the subject for the wrong end of a horse. Subsequently realised it is a photograph of an elusive protected animal certain to be the subject of a projected TV special by David Attitborough.
A-E
Agree. Pence is the cleanskin religious nutter waiting in the wings, ready to pounce.
Boerwar
Thanks.
I don’t think we are ever really prepared to lose someone that matters to us.
Boerwar @ #451 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 2:09 pm
It sounded like it was going to be a formality! 🙂
Vic:
Those 8 months have flown by.
The wife of my brother’s friend who died last year (mid 40s), leaving behind a young family also isn’t coping too well. My brother and his wife have been to Melbourne once to give her a hand with things, and have extended an invitation to her and the kids to stay with them just to get away. From what my brother says she seems to be withdrawing more and more into herself.
BiDG
The speed of the timing here is bizarre, IMO.
Confessions says: Friday, May 11, 2018 at 5:12 pm
Pence has recently been whining about Mueller’s investigation going on too long and how it needs to be wrapped up.
****************************************************************
Pence wants it wrapped up so HIS part in the imbroglio is not brought up – TOO LATE – Robert Mueller is 6 months ahead of whatever the MSM or we know about what he has on everyone – including Pence/Manafort/Flynn
Confessions
Best wishes as well.
That photo of Morrison reminds me of Pegasus.
pR
It is slomo. But is it a slomo trainwreck?
WOW – THANKS Don – the first time my pic posting has been successful 🙂
Boerwar, and if it was any other make of shotgun it would be acceptable?
Or were you taking the mickey in some way I don’t understand?
phoenixRed:
A very apt image!
Boerwar @ #462 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 2:17 pm
It seems like it was already worked out.
Mahathir was always considered, and they talked about him as, a caretaker leader until Anwar got out.
I hope Shorten and Bowen send their numbers to the PBO then release the report.
They need to shut down this dumb trust and credibility meme that’s taken hold….
Boerwar says: Friday, May 11, 2018 at 5:19 pm
pR
It is slomo. But is it a slomo trainwreck?
******************************************************
Those in the know say that Robert Mueller is holding back for security reasons or to protect operations in progress and to protect ‘sources’ .
He is reputed to have the sharpest US legal brains and track proven prosecutors that have taken down the top crime bosses and mobsters in his team – they will know WHEN its time to pounce on these sleazebag betrayers…
Andrew_Earlwood @ #453 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:13 pm
Well I would not bet my money on impeachment. The cases are all falling in a heap. It looks likely that Manafort will not be subject to Mueller, the Judge (Ellis) has indicated he will probably refer his case to the New York prosecutors out of Mueller’s jurisdiction. This is because the charges laid date to 2005-07 well before the Trump campaign. The Flynn indictment is also in trouble. This removes tow sources of “pressure” for people to “sing” – judge’s words. Mueller is really struggling for any evidence that will stand up to court scrutiny.
Now as to impeachment, while it is probable that the Democrats will take control of the House, getting control of the Senate is next to impossible, just because of the nature of this year’s ballot. Whatever happens it will be long and messy. The new congress will not sit until January and any impeachment would take 6 months. It would be batshit crazy for the Dems to support impeachment if it meant installing Pence in the Whitehouse – he is sure to get a second term if he stands in 2020.
The Dems will probably avoid impeachment unless (which is unlikely) Pence goes down too. But Pence will not because he is as anti Russian as the rest of the Congress and I doubt they will find any collusion for him. I have not heard any corruption rumours either – they may exist but I have not heard of them.
Bushfire Bill @ #435 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 4:54 pm
I thought Scrot just came across like a primary school kid engaging in name calling.
Fess
Sorry to hear about your brother’s friend.
As time goes on, the reality sinks in.
It is said, time heals all wounds. What time actually does is makes one get used to life without their loved one, but not much else. Grief is just the pits.
DTT – removing an aspect of the Muller investigation to a State Court and State Proscutors actually fucks Trump.
Oh, there I go again. Replying to a DTT stream of consciousness post.
Must stop now. Hugs
PhoenixRed
Yep pence wants the investigation to end. But too late for him. Mueller has everything
Victoria says: Friday, May 11, 2018 at 5:38 pm
PhoenixRed
Yep pence wants the investigation to end. But too late for him. Mueller has everything
******************************************************
Robert Mueller gets fed information from FBI CIA SIGINT etc etc …….. and from over a reputed 19 Intelligence Agencies throughout the world including Australia through 5 eyes ……
Every time Trump has farted has been logged ……… he is F******D
You are probably right about Aboriginal diet BW – I have to admit my knowledge about our home First Nations people is limited. Though I’d venture to say that in its natural forms, the sugar content of those foods will likely be much lower than any farmed food.
‘Fulvio Sammut says:
Friday, May 11, 2018 at 5:20 pm
Boerwar, and if it was any other make of shotgun it would be acceptable?
Or were you taking the mickey in some way I don’t understand?’
There was a concerted effort by the Australian Gun Lobby (with the assistance of the NRA) by way of the Fishers, Shooters and Farmers Party, to get rid of restrictions on the import of the Adler. The Adler can readily be modified to become, I believe, the equivalent of an 11 round rapid fire weapon. It WAS being modified to do this in Australia. In other words, it was a work around for mass murder.
Further, the calibre means that the equivalent of solid round pig shot would cause devastating traumatic injuries or death.
The gunnies used their BOP in the upper houses to force the import of around 4,000 Adlers.
The Adler was always going to be the most likely weapon for our next mass murder.
That is why it is critical to name the weapon of choice in this case.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #473 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:34 pm
Andie boy my ignorant little friend. No you are up the creek.
No one denies that the Manafort charges were brought to make him “sing” against trump. That is what the judge said and it was not denied in court. By removing the case from the Mueller probe, there is no longer any incentive for Manafort to plea bargain and “sing.” Sure it it probable that Manafort will cop a conviction but it removes it from connection with evidence against Trump.
Is that too hard for you iccle fellow.
Offensive git.
‘jenauthor says:
Friday, May 11, 2018 at 5:53 pm
You are probably right about Aboriginal diet BW – I have to admit my knowledge about our home First Nations people is limited. Though I’d venture to say that in its natural forms, the sugar content of those foods will likely be much lower than any farmed food.’
Correctomundo. In fact, depending on the circumstances, huge efforts were made by Indigenous people to gain tiny amounts of natural sugars. Digging monster holes for a few small honey ants being an example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwzzbjYHC3w
FS
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-28/gun-modification-beats-ban-on-high-capacity-adler-shotgun/7368138
FS
Aussies are unaware of what is happening in this political space:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/18/tim-fischer-warns-nra-inspired-firearms-lobby-targeting-australias-gun-laws
Thanks for the explanation.
In my view, all guns should be banned.
Those required of absolute necessity for humanitarian or vermin control purposes should be held in Government armouries, and signed in and signed out for the purposes required only.
Boerwar @ #479 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:54 pm
It is not self loading, it is lever action and there are other lever action firearms legal in Australia.
Even a bolt-action rifle can get shots off pretty rapidly.
There is no ‘correct’ answer, but what we have at present seems to be a reasonable compromise.
I understand there were 2 weapons present so to shoot 6 people, high capacity magazines would not be needed.
What the hell caused someone, probably a husband and father, to do such a thing? Were there no signs that something was going wrong? 😥
Confessions @ #462 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:18 pm
Whoda thunk it? A Green transforming into a Liberal! 😉
FS
Yep.
Has Di Natale explained why Newstart is necessary if we have his UBI?
Or do Newstart recipients get the UBI on top of Newstart?
What?
Fulvio Sammut @ #484 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 6:01 pm
I appreciate your sentiments, but that is just wildly impractical.
A farmer does not know in advance when he will encounter an animal needing to be put down or vermin.
I couldn’t resist and stole Bushfire’s idea and put this up on twitter:
++++++
ResistantJen @conceravota
@TurnbullMalcolm Sorry PM, UnstoppaBill and InestimaBill is IndefatigaBill. You’ll find he is UnstoppaBill, ComendaBill and CapaBill at election time where he will be UndeniaBill because your govts policies are so BeataBill.
#auspol
Then added this:
See Mr PM … other people can make up silly Trump-like names too. Juvenile, isn’t it! #auspol
Thanks to Bushfire Bill and steve davis for their better list of names for Bill Shorten. I nicked it and put it on Twitter and it is taking off like a rocket! 🙂
Snap! jen. 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/canine-choreography-next-wave-dancing-dogs/9752034
The ‘dance’ routine in this piece is 4 min long and the dog is brilliant. YouTube Crufts 2018
(Much better than all those cat videos.)
Also a vitamin C source.
ElectaBill
Unflappa-Bill
C
Yep. I used ‘were’ when I should have used ‘are’. I have been out on honey ant expeditions and have shared in the booty: less sugar than in a single Mars Bar.
Pell again – this time undermining the Pope on the church’s response to climate change:
lols DDT.
Prosecuting folk is my actual day job and has been for the past 6 years exclusively.
Your problem is you just make shit up. Despite all evidence to the contrary you are a self apponted expert on everything.
Leaving the collision issue aside for a moment most of the Trump Crime Family’s activities have been in New York State. Think about that for a nanosecond and you’ll see that there is plenty of incentive for Manafort to bargain with both state and federal investigators. The point remains – placing him in the care of NY state creates another barrier between him and Trump’s ability to interfer in the investigation. FFS!
A fucking earthworm is more useful …
Pell: arrogance dressed up as… arrogance.