Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Unlike previous RC witnesses, who have mostly been senior managers in the big four and AMP, McMaster is actually the head of the company, Dover Financial. So the buck stopped with him (literally).

    I hope the commission doesn’t run out of time before before we see some bank chairs, directors and CEOs being asked to explain themselves.

  3. McMaster, who came across as credible as his namesake Wallaby Bob McMaster, was really smarmy, a smartarse and, as twice alleged by Counsel Assisting, trivialising the proceedings.
    His Honour had said nothing during the time Counsel Assisting was erecting the gallows scaffolding but intervened at the end to give McMaster some very good legal advice that must have hit the spot.

  4. BK @ #1053 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 5:05 pm

    McMaster, who came across as credible as his namesake Wallaby Bob McMaster, was really smarmy, a smartarse and, as twice alleged by Counsel Assisting, trivialising the proceedings.
    His Honour had said nothing during the time Counsel Assisting was erecting the gallows scaffolding but intervened at the end to give McMaster some very good legal advice that must have hit the spot.

    Nicely put BK.

    See the video link herein:

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/dover-boss-collapses-at-royal-commission-20180426-p4zbva.html

  5. bemused @ #1050 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    Voice Endeavour @ #1046 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 4:36 pm

    The ‘pretend to have a heart attack so you can get some more time to remember which lie you are meant to be telling’ shtick is surely past its prime?

    Is there any ‘contempt of court’ style charge they can hit him with?

    Bit harsh. I could well imagine the stress causing a heart attack and they should err on the side of caution.

    Centrelink clients suspected of wrongdoing receive no such mercy or consideration, and they are nowhere near as well resourced or advised as the banks & financial institutions. Show them no mercy.

  6. BK

    in case you missed it McMaster is a lawyer as well as whatever qualifications he has as financial advisor.

    Probably thought that gave him an advantage.

  7. First Selim Mehajer and now Terry McMaster! Is there no end to lawyers tearing down the reputations of these honest business titans? Still, looking at the photo in the ABC story Terry seemed to buck up pretty fast once out of the courtroom. I sincerely hope he gets a chance to clear his name in front of a proper jury.

  8. Oh dear 🙂 From Guardian coverage.
    .
    “Dover Financial was the only large-scale financial advice group to decline to assist the royal commission.

    McMaster advised the company to retain him as a lawyer to review their statements of advice and “add gravitas”.

  9. Centrelink clients suspected of wrongdoing receive no such mercy or consideration

    And you would expect the head of a financial company to be able to deal with some pressure.

    The problem methinks is these chaps have no experience in dealing with responsibilities that go beyond that of short term profit making. When confronted with previously easily ignored matters of accountability and illegality they crumble like toddlers.

    Orange is the new Whistler holiday.

  10. poroti

    Early on McMaster was asked why Dover had not responded to RC request for info.

    Basically said he thought it was an invitation and he treated it as such.

    That went over well I am sure.

  15. How will Lib-Lab explain this away ?

    Well, I don’t know how the Liberals will explain it, probably stonewall, change the subject, say “we stopped the boats it’s labor’s fault” or, if all else fails, lie. Standard Operating Procedure. But they own Nauru, they’ve had 5 years, they have to justify it if they can (which they can’t).

    Had Labor won in 2013, it would have tried to strike a reasonable regional deal, maybe negotiated a deal with the USA, maybe one with NZ, hopefully struck a deal with Indonesia, against a feral Opposition and Murdoch Media screaming “Boats Boats Boats!” at the top of their lungs, dowhistling “Brown people with scary religion” and virtually inviting the boats to restart.

    There is a huge difference, even though Labor hasn’t covered itself in glory. This Lib-Lab stuff is unhelpful, not least to the stranded asylum seekers.

  17. Steve777 @ #655 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    How will Lib-Lab explain this away ?

    Well, I don’t know how the Liberals will explain it, probably stonewall, change the subject, say ‘we stopped the boats it’s labor’s fault or, if all else fails, lie. Standard Operation Procedure. They own Nauru, they have to justify it if they can (which they can’t).

    Had Labor won in 2013, it would have tried to strike a reasonable regional deal, maybe negotiated a deal with the USA, maybe one with NZ, hopefully struck a deal with Indonesia, against a feral Opposition and Murdoch Media screaming “Boats Boats Boats!” at the top of their lungs, dowhistling “Brown people with scary religion” and virtually inviting the boats to restart.

    There is a huge difference, even though Labor hasn’t covered itself in glory. This Lib-Lab stuff is unhelpful, not least to the stranded asylum seekers.

    It’s a unity ticket. Both have blood on their hands. But don’t worry, nobody cares anyway.

  18. Two nights ago I posted about an interview on Geoff Hutchison’s Drive show – when blatant mistruths went to air about Labor’s policy on a banking Royal Commission. I’ve since had time to listen again and its worse than I remembered. The political commentator Geoff was speaking to was Rob Harris, the National political commentator at the Herald Sun.

    That they both got it so wrong is mind boggling (Geoff is supposed to know his onions) – the overall impression given, deliberately of course, was that Labor are no better than the Gov on this issue. Hope this link works – the interview starts at almost exactly the 35 minute mark.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/perth/programs/drive/drive/9669378

    After my initial phone call to put them right (off air) I asked for a correction by text (twice) -none forthcoming in the time I was listening (about an hour). I have emailed Mediawatch (not a lot of interest so far) I also emailed the station to ask for an explanation.

    The misrepresentation was pretty blatant and although the ABC these days has a pretty small audience it galls me that they are so loath to correct mistakes. The response when I rang was very dismissive.

  19. Kate

    “Rob Harris, the National political commentator at the Herald Sun.

    What would have been ‘mind boggling’ is a ‘senior journalist’ from Murdoch media not distorting/misrepresenting Labor’s position.

  21. SK:

    Also not to call liquid on my skin caused by physical endeavour sweat. “Horses sweat Simon, humans perspire’.

    The full version is:

    “Horses sweat, men perspire and ladies glow”

  23. Rex Douglas @ #1066 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 3:04 pm

    Steve777 @ #655 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    How will Lib-Lab explain this away ?

    Well, I don’t know how the Liberals will explain it, probably stonewall, change the subject, say ‘we stopped the boats it’s labor’s fault or, if all else fails, lie. Standard Operation Procedure. They own Nauru, they have to justify it if they can (which they can’t).

    Had Labor won in 2013, it would have tried to strike a reasonable regional deal, maybe negotiated a deal with the USA, maybe one with NZ, hopefully struck a deal with Indonesia, against a feral Opposition and Murdoch Media screaming “Boats Boats Boats!” at the top of their lungs, dowhistling “Brown people with scary religion” and virtually inviting the boats to restart.

    There is a huge difference, even though Labor hasn’t covered itself in glory. This Lib-Lab stuff is unhelpful, not least to the stranded asylum seekers.

    It’s a unity ticket. Both have blood on their hands. But don’t worry, nobody cares anyway.

    While I disagree with Labor’s current policy in this area, if you believe that anyone in Labor would have acted as offensively as Morrison and the Potato in this area you are a bigger idiot than you already come across as.

  24. Bemused

    Mirabella story says hearing is in Wangaratta …

    I don’t doubt you cant book but my query about a queue to get in to see Sophie on oath was an obviously poor attempt at a joke.

  26. rossmcg @ #1066 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    Perhaps Zoomster can tell us is there a queue outside court for seats to this?

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/report-of-mirabella-pushing-mcgowan-was-fake-news-court-told-20180426-p4zbw3.html

    County Court is on the corner of Lonsdale and William Sts.
    I don’t think you can book seats.

    rossmcg @ #1074 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 6:37 pm

    Bemused

    Mirabella story says hearing is in Wangaratta …

    I don’t doubt you cant book but my query about a queue to get in to see Sophie on oath was an obviously poor attempt at a joke.

    As was my response.
    But I think she will get more of an audience in Wangaratta than she would in Melbourne.

  27. Sophie , gluten for punishment..

    Barrister Georgina Schoff QC said the article, which had the headline “Awkward encounter”, was “completely false and defamatory” to Mirabella.

    “What this means is Sophie Mirabella is suing the paper and the editor to restore her reputation,” she told a jury of six people at Wangaratta on Thursday.

    Shound she win, damages in the order of 10 cents, commensurate with her reputation

  28. Apology.

    Earlier today I suggested that Mr. Scott Morrison’s head would perhaps be suitable for use as a bowling ball (after a round trip to the furthest reaches of the Universe).

    More investigation reveals that only super experts would be able to play with this ball because of the extreme right bias. The ball would, in the manner of a boomerang, return to user, much like a large corporations taxes.

    I do not intend or suggest that Mr. Scott Morrison be harmed in any way.

    Over and out. ☮

  30. Sceptic @ #1076 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 3:49 pm

    Sophie , gluten for punishment..

    Barrister Georgina Schoff QC said the article, which had the headline “Awkward encounter”, was “completely false and defamatory” to Mirabella.

    “What this means is Sophie Mirabella is suing the paper and the editor to restore her reputation,” she told a jury of six people at Wangaratta on Thursday.

    Shound she win, damages in the order of 10 cents, commensurate with her reputation

    Don’t be stupid, we still have 5 cent pieces, don’t we, or could they set it at a peppercorn?

    Also I would award costs against her for engaging in such a frivolous exercise. 🙂

  32. Dan

    McMaster may not be a death’s door, but I would hazard a guess his business could be on life support fairly soon.
    Like the celebrity adviser Henderson yesterday I can’t see too many new clients heading his way and those he has would be probably looking for the exit.

  33. Don

    “Horses sweat, men perspire and ladies glow”
    —–

    My Mother told me, when i said “I sweat”:

    “Horses sweat, men perspire and ladies feel the heat”

  34. The UBS Note has had the impact it has had today

    But remember that what is before the RC is the result of self reporting – and only by the “Big 4”

    The Banking Industry is absolutely vital to the endeavours of all of us, personal, Commerce and industry

    That is before we get to the tenants of the Bills of Exchange Act

    That said, the home mortgage debt of borrowers is $1.6 Trillion and the sheer size of that portfolio of lending lends its own level of comfort

    If there are defaults courtesy of poor assessment of other reasons with more impact such as flat wages growth, unemployment or interest rates rising (which they must) then those defaults will be minimal given the size of the portfolio

    Then you have the diversity of the lending book of the “Big 4”, being to Commerce and industry

    As with investing, diversity mitigates against losses

    More danger attaches to Regional Banks lacking the diversity in their lending book – and that they have sourced their home lending portfolio thru Brokers and by purchasing home loans from other sources such as the purchase of the home lending book of the WA State government

    These banks are not before the RC – and they should be

    They lack largesse and they lack diversity = elevated risk

    This is why it is hoped that submissions to the RC are considered (over and above self reporting) resulting in Hayne seeking amendment to the Terms of Reference and an extension of time

    This does not absolve or excuse the “Big 4” who, in my view have mismanaged their responsibilities since deregulation because of a lack of ability across the operatives

    By 1995, Aged 50 I had had my full of the battle and the politics and retired from a senior position in one of the “Big 4” and this result of self reporting is of no surprise to me – but it only touches the surface

    The Banking Industry is just far, far to important to the Nation to be subject to what we witness now and immediate steps need to be taken to ensure the findings and recommendations of this RC set the foundations for the future conduct of bankers so nothing should be left under the carpet

    I have attended a submission to the RC citing specific matters where my input has been sought over recent years, culture and politics and including a series of recommendations

    But it is a public submission – and so far what we see is the result of self reporting by the “Big 4”

    Lengthy but brief in content

  41. Kate

    Ask the ABC for the text of the interview with Geoff Couzens on The Business over the past 24/48 hours

    See if they care to replay from their own library

  42. Well, I have just finished reading “Lord of the Rings” by Tolkien for the eleventyth time.

    If you have not had that pleasure, I urge you to remedy the lack.

  44. Rex
    Can you please tell us exactly what you expect Labor to do to stop the cruelty Dutton is inflicting on the asylum seekers at Manus and Nauru?

  46. I have made the point many times before, but while ever there is a deficit, no item in the budget can be regarded as ‘fully funded’.

    That is incorrect. A currency-issuing government can always buy real goods and services that are available for sale in its currency. The constraint is the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in the currency. There isn’t a financial constraint.

    The Australian Government spends first, and taxes later. How do you think households and firms get the dollars they need to pay their taxes to the Australian Government? The Australian Government spends the money into the private sector first. Saying that the Australian Government gets its money from taxpayers is a bizarre, nonsensical belief.

    The relevant question about the NDIS is: do we have enough people available to provide support services to people with disabilities? The answer is yes. Money is not the issue.

  47. There is a book published in 1985 titled “Belly Up – the story of Penn Square Bank”

    This preceded the Savings & Loans problems of the late 1980’s/early 1990’s which impacted on real estate prices globally

    And, of course, it pre dated sub prime lending which morphed into the GFC as it did

    And it preceded the Stock Exchange crash of 1987

    There were some great paragraphs in that book which I had laminated and on my office wall at the time – much to the chagrin of many!

    That book remains relevent today because human beings being human beings, culture does not change

    Someone will always push the boundaries and particularly in a regime where self regulation is seen as the most effective form of regulation

  48. I have an original rice paper copy of LOTR Don! My hubby read one page each night to our kids when they were young … I don’t think he got past Fellowship it took so long.

    My son read it in total later, though.

    I’ve read it twice

  49. New Matilda today had a 3 part special INSIDE THE GREENS, exploring the disunity and factional warfare in the Greens party in NSW.

    Part 1: https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/24/courting-controversy-cate-faehrmann-battle-nsw-greens-part-1/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=inside-the-greens_-a-special-three_part-series-from-michael-brull-on-the-gre-_-2018-04-26-_-08-22-15

    Part 2: https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/25/public-mischief-cate-faehrmann-battle-nsw-greens-part-2/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=inside-the-greens_-a-special-three_part-series-from-michael-brull-on-the-gre-_-2018-04-26-_-08-22-15

    Part 3: https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/26/bad-blood-cate-faehrmann-battle-nsw-greens-part-3/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=inside-the-greens_-a-special-three_part-series-from-michael-brull-on-the-gre-_-2018-04-26-_-08-22-15

  50. Easlake, on the ABC now, was a Liberal Party member when at ANZ, then fell out with Costello hence the reference to Howard

    It was also the generational damage that Howard inflicted with his abject mismanagement , and referred to by Easlake, that saw me agitate for his defeat – which was achieved

    And I have not supported the Tories since because of their doctrine

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