Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/bca-bosses-met-with-cambridge-analytica/news-story/551280151dd77650bcacfb1016d64d73

    It has been revealed that Australia’s peak business lobby met with representatives of the controversial research firm Cambridge Analytica last year.
    Business Council chief Jennifer Westacott and president Grant King were involved in the meeting in Washington DC in September 2017.
    Ms Westacott told a Senate hearing in Melbourne on Thursday the meeting had been held “more out of curiosity” than any other reason.

  2. Ms Westacott told a Senate hearing in Melbourne on Thursday the meeting had been held “more out of curiosity” than any other reason.

    So? What were they curious about? Whether they could seed ideas into the community to enable Corporate Tax Cuts to be supported maybe?

  3. rossmcg @ #1082 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 7:14 pm

    Dan

    McMaster may not be a death’s door, but I would hazard a guess his business could be on life support fairly soon.
    Like the celebrity adviser Henderson yesterday I can’t see too many new clients heading his way and those he has would be probably looking for the exit.

    I was googling Henderson yesterday and amongst other finds there was a chummy mutual admiration chat with the one and only Kelly O’Dwyer, maybe it was in Sky, cant’t remember. Low and behold, it’s been relegated to NOT FOUND error 404.

    http://www.hendersonmaxwell.com.au/interview-mister-revenue-financial-services-kelly-odwyer/

    Likewise, all his youtubes

    https://www.youtube.com/user/HendersonMaxwell/playlists

    Wonder why.

  4. Speaking of Sophie Mirabella going to court to ‘restore her reputation’, she should get the photographer in front of the Beek who used the wide lens in this snap at the Melbourne Cup!

  5. Itza

    If I read it right yesterday Henderson was close to a deal with FPA over his complaint and then it was suggested that the penalty would include a 12-month media ban.

    All bets were off. He knew that the free publicity was worth a fortune to his business.

  6. What was the “fake news” that the newspaper printed about Mirabella.?Did they say she is a fine person universally loved and respected?

  7. jenauthor says:
    Thursday, April 26, 2018 at 7:48 pm
    I have an original rice paper copy of LOTR Don! My hubby read one page each night to our kids when they were young … I don’t think he got past Fellowship it took so long.

    My son read it in total later, though.

    I’ve read it twice

    I regard it as an important part of our literary heritage, like the works of Dickens, the Brontë sisters, Mark Twain, Homer, Lewis Caroll or Orwell.

    The work is still extremely popular, and no doubt will forever be so, as new readers discover it.

    My wife has “One ring to bind them” engraved on her wedding ring, and our place is called “Fangorn”.

    I am still hoping for Ents to show up, and there are a lot of possible candidates that we have planted and grown, perhaps they will reach adulthood and sentience at some time.

    Angophoras are worth watching for the first signs, they are very Ent-like, and have an extremely long life.

  8. BK

    Former Liberal frontbencher Sophie Mirabella felt “sick to her stomach” when she read an article wrongly accusing her of pushing an opponent during a photo opportunity while campaigning for the 2016 federal election.

    Mirabella is suing weekly newspaper the Benalla Ensign and its editor Libby Price in the Victorian county court over an April 2016 article about an encounter with Indi member Cathy McGowan.

    Mirabella, who lost the seat to McGowan in 2013, says the article defamed her by falsely claiming she pushed the incumbent MP out of the way of a photograph for her own political benefit.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/26/sophie-mirabella-defamation-case-hears-paper-published-fake-news

  9. Nicholas @ #1096 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 7:45 pm

    I have made the point many times before, but while ever there is a deficit, no item in the budget can be regarded as ‘fully funded’.

    That is incorrect. A currency-issuing government can always buy real goods and services that are available for sale in its currency. The constraint is the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in the currency. There isn’t a financial constraint.

    The Australian Government spends first, and taxes later. How do you think households and firms get the dollars they need to pay their taxes to the Australian Government? The Australian Government spends the money into the private sector first. Saying that the Australian Government gets its money from taxpayers is a bizarre, nonsensical belief.

    The relevant question about the NDIS is: do we have enough people available to provide support services to people with disabilities? The answer is yes. Money is not the issue.

    That is rubbish Nicholas.
    If you are running a deficit, by definition expenditure exceeds income and so the budget as a whole is not “fully funded” to say some parts are and others aren’t is rather artificial. That is what I was getting at.

    The rest is just your usual “funny money” stuff.

  10. P1:

    I am pleased to see that the new gas fired plant will have so many distinct gas engines. That should make easy maintenance and good reliability far more achievable than the coal fired (commonly four X) plants. When one of those goes out, you have a problem.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-to-build-new-gas-fired-power-plant-in-nsw-20180426-p4zbwp.html


    The energy company has announced it will build the 252-megawatt gas-fired plant near its Newcastle Gas Storage Facility, completing construction at the end of 2022. The new plant will consist of fourteen 18-megawatt gas engines.

  11. Player One @ #1104 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 8:11 pm

    AGL gets it …

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/agl-announces-newcastle-gas-fired-power-station/9701122

    “Electricity generation is undergoing an increasingly rapid transition to lower cost, clean energy renewable and storage technologies,” Mr Vesey said.

    “This requires the complementary development of flexible, dispatchable gas-fired technology, as well as policies to support these developments.”

    Sounds rather like peaking to me. Which no-one disagrees on.

  12. don @ #1115 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 8:44 pm

    P1:

    I am pleased to see that the new gas fired plant will have so many distinct gas engines. That should make easy maintenance and good reliability far more achievable than the coal fired (commonly four X) plants. When one of those goes out, you have a problem.

    Yes, you are probably right. Also, I think using a larger number of smaller engines would make it faster to get up and running. Getting a plant like this online in 4 years is pretty good going.

  13. don from early this afternoon re: the VCE vs HSC:

    You should be turning out scholars, not rule followers.

    Agree with this wholeheartedly.

    I felt the VCE, when I studied it in the 1990s, was very much about jumping through hoops rather than actual learning. You studied for the exams by looking through the previous few years’ exams, too, to learn the types of questions that might be asked.

  14. The only thing more buzzed about than Melania Trump’s enormous hat was how she really does not want to hold Donald Trump’s hand, as apparent in a video of the president and First Lady welcoming their guests that made its way around the Internet.

    It’s at least the third awkward hand-holding moment for Melania and POTUS, after an infamous “hand swat” was caught by cameras on a tarmac in Tel Aviv. Then, in February, Donald Trump tried to reach for his wife again as they were on their way to Ohio, while Melania seemingly protected herself in a long yellow coat draped over her shoulders. Undaunted, he tried yet again this morning in front of the White House, only to be rebuffed, before Melania eventually gave in while visibly grimacing.

    https://www.vogue.com/article/melania-trump-awkward-hand-hold-donald-trump-emmanuel-brigitte-macron

    Jeez talk about awkward.

  15. BK says:
    Thursday, April 26, 2018 at 8:17 pm
    If the NDIS is “fully funded” how come there is a budget deficit?

    Andrew Bolt was asking exactly the same question on 3aw tonight.

  16. The rest is just your usual “funny money” stuff.

    Why do you believe that households and firms issue Australian dollars, and the Australian Government collects those dollars from households and firms and then spends them?

    That is a truly bizarre belief to hold.

    You don’t seem to understand how a fiat currency works. There isn’t anything “funny” about it. It works very well.

    The Australian Government spends first, and taxes later.

    The Australian Government is not financially constrained like a household, business, state government, or local government. Its spending is constrained by the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in Australian dollars.

  17. This requires the complementary development of flexible, dispatchable gas-fired technology, as well as policies to support these developments.”

    But, but it isn’t coal. The Monash group will send them back to the drawing board.

  18. When you know that you are losing the argument, then you resort to name calling.

    Frydenberg blasts power policy critics
    9:03PMGREG BROWN
    Josh Frydenberg has accused critics of the government’s energy policy as ‘rent-seeking’ and using ‘juvenile tactics’.

  19. “Mirabella, who lost the seat to McGowan in 2013, says the article defamed her by falsely claiming she pushed the incumbent MP out of the way of a photograph for her own political benefit.”

    Like Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of Montenegro at last year’s NATO Summit.

  20. Mr Newbie @ #1118 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:02 pm

    don from early this afternoon re: the VCE vs HSC:

    You should be turning out scholars, not rule followers.

    Agree with this wholeheartedly.

    I felt the VCE, when I studied it in the 1990s, was very much about jumping through hoops rather than actual learning. You studied for the exams by looking through the previous few years’ exams, too, to learn the types of questions that might be asked.

    You must be a bit younger than my eldest son was. He completed in 1991 IIRC.
    His school actually trialled VCE English and comments he and other kids made were like yours.
    I would say though that using past exam papers for practice has always been done and still is. It is good to be familiar with the style of the questions so you are not tripped up by how something is asked rather than what is asked.

  21. Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    2h2 hours ago
    Story on 730 abt people who took out mortgages they couldn’t afford. Banks ‘and brokers’ fault apparently.

    Isn’t the issue that money was so easily loaned by banks even to people who were up to their necks in debt? And it feels like nothing has really changed since the GFC. At lease once or twice a year my bank offers me what appear to be great deals on new credit cards – interest free for first X months, pre-approved and ready to go.

    Whatever happened to responsible lending?

  22. Nicholas @ #1121 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:12 pm

    The rest is just your usual “funny money” stuff.

    Why do you believe that households and firms issue Australian dollars, and the Australian Government collects those dollars from households and firms and then spends them?

    That is a truly bizarre belief to hold.

    You don’t seem to understand how a fiat currency works. There isn’t anything “funny” about it. It works very well.

    The Australian Government spends first, and taxes later.

    The Australian Government is not financially constrained like a household, business, state government, or local government. Its spending is constrained by the availability of real goods and services that are for sale in Australian dollars.

    Of course the Govt, or at least the Reserve Bank prints notes and otherwise creates money. It is the medium of exchange that lubricates the economy.
    Banks used to issue ‘bank notes’ but then the Govt took it over.
    Your presentation of things is what is bizarre.

  23. P1, et al.,

    I think using a larger number of smaller engines would make it faster to get up and running.

    Nup, all OCGTs ramp at about the same rate.

    It’s to have a really small minimum operating output for the plant, so that the units can be used to provide inertia and stability services in times of low load or high renewables generation. Usually the minimum output is about 50% of a single generator’s capacity. If you have 14 smaller gensets, then the minimum is that much lower.

  24. Just interested, I was under the impression that the consensus amongst women was that pornography, soft or hard, demeaned woman.

    Has this now changed?

  25. I would like to bask in the reflected glory of counsel assisting Mark Costello.

    Mark used to throw stones at me in primary school. I reckon he was jealous ’cause I was geekier than him.

  26. Allegations of professional misconduct, getting drunk at a party, driving drunk (and subsequently wrecking a govt vehicle), plus creating a toxic workplace environment.

    No it isn’t Troy Buswell seeking another shot at politics, but White House physician and Trump’s nominee for Vets Affairs secretary.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/va-nominee-faces-explosive-new-allegations-of-drinking-wrecking-government-vehicle/2018/04/25/d1a8e0b2-48c4-11e8-8b5a-3b1697adcc2a_story.html?utm_term=.f04c94ab2ef1

  27. I have attempted to pass comment on the RC and the UBS note on Fairfax

    Firstly not published

    Now not authorised to post

    They obviously only want to hear what they want to hear

  28. And Trump’s latest hiring brainfart, selecting his personal physician to be the Secretary of Veteran’s Affairs has collapsed, with alleged drunkard and womaniser Ronny Jackson withdrawing from consideration.

    “Jackson also says: “The allegations against me are completely false and fabricated. If they had any merit, I would not have been selected, promoted and entrusted to serve in such a sensitive and important role as physician to three presidents over the past 12 years.”

  29. Snap Fess, Trump sure knows how to pick ‘em

    “Dr. Ronny L. Jackson, President Trump’s personal physician and his pick to lead the Veterans Affairs Department, is now alleged to have inappropriately dispensed drugs, including the opioid Percocet, to others, and to have prescribed himself medication.

    In an interview with CNN, Senator Jon Tester of Montana said Dr. Jackson was known as the “candy man” inside the White House. Mr. Tester said a number of sources had told the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee that, on overseas trips, Dr. Jackson would “go down the aisle way of the airplane and say, ‘All right, who wants to go to sleep?’ And hand out the prescription drugs like they were candy.” Then, the senator continued, Dr. Jackson would “put them to sleep and then give them the drugs to wake them back up again.”

    If true, Dr. Jackson was apparently casually dispensing Ambien for sleep and Provigil for arousal, both of which are powerful controlled substances with a potential for addiction. For any physician, let alone one who treats the president of the United States (and Dr. Jackson has now treated two: Mr. Trump and Barack Obama), such behavior is unethical and dangerous.‘

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/opinion/ronny-jackson-candy-man.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinion&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront

  30. sprocket:

    The parallels with Troy Buswell’s fall from grace are astonishing. The only thing missing from Jackson’s resume is sniffing chairs women have sat on.

    But it’s early days.

  31. ..except, of course, that being able to regurgitate what was on the last years’ exams is virtually the definition of ‘rule following’ education, whereas being asked to demonstrate your own abilities, to experiment, and to improve on past performance isn’t.

    It is, btw, impossible (and was under the HSC in Victoria as well) to use past examinations in English as a guide anyway, as the content changes on a yearly basis (being text based).

  32. don from 1:22pm:

    I am appalled that you think that this is an improvement.

    So goody- goody two shoes passes, and anybody who doesn’t kowtow to the teacher fails?

    Spare me.

    In my book, the only thing that counts is how well a student does on a test, not whether they suck up to the teacher.

    I found uni so much easier/better for learning than VCE. Not because it was easier; it certainly wasn’t. But because it was totally up to me to do the work/study how I wanted to, rather than having some teacher breathing down my neck asking for drafts of an essay, which I hated. That’s what VCE was like when I studied it. We also had to complete ungraded ‘work requirements’, which was just more hoop-jumping, like a written lab report, or showing you’d done certain maths exercises, etc., and was only graded S(atisfactory) or N(ot satisfactory).

    Whereas, at uni, at least back in the late 90s, many of my subjects were assessed by exams only, and there was no busywork that had to be done throughout the semester, which I loved. Now, I fear, that has changed, and many subjects in the degree I studied (which has now gone from a 4 year Bachelor degree to a combined Bachelor/Master degree, despite no increase in length, no research project requirement, and a general first year) now involve group assignments with much less emphasis on exams.

  33. zoomster @ #1143 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 10:27 pm

    ..except, of course, that being able to regurgitate what was on the last years’ exams is virtually the definition of ‘rule following’ education, whereas being asked to demonstrate your own abilities, to experiment, and to improve on past performance isn’t.

    It is, btw, impossible (and was under the HSC in Victoria as well) to use past examinations in English as a guide anyway, as the content changes on a yearly basis (being text based).

    No shit! Exams change from year to year. Who would have thought! 😮

    Of course they do. Everywhere.

  34. bemused

    In which case, looking at old exam papers would be a worthless exercise.

    Mr Newbie

    Yes, Uni certainly is slacker than a well taught VCE class…

  35. zoomster @ #1148 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 10:51 pm

    bemused

    In which case, looking at old exam papers would be a worthless exercise.

    Mr Newbie

    Yes, Uni certainly is slacker than a well taught VCE class…

    Rubbish! It gives you a feel for the type of questions asked so you don’t get any surprises when you get the real paper.

    It is a time honoured tradition to work through a few practice exams including past papers.

    Cheating is rife at universities and is often ignored even if reported. Also common in group work is some members of a group bludging off those who actually do the work. Again, nothing done even if blatantly obvious and reported.

  36. bemused

    Yes, cheating was rife when I was at University, too, back in the late 70s.

    The Engineering faculty got a fictional student through from first year to graduation, by having students from the year before sit ‘his’ exams.

    Famously, a librarian went to pull a girl out of an exam because she had overdue library books – to find a male student in her allocated seat, who promptly got to his feet and scarpered. When they looked over all her past exams, not one was in her handwriting. (She was very good looking).

    She and at least three male accomplices were sent down.

    I had a guy who hired me to tutor him, but he basically wanted me to write his papers for him. When I refused, he got someone else to do it. It must have been obvious that the work wasn’t his (for starters, it was already six months overdue and his second or third attempt at the same paper) but he seemed to get away with it.

    Coincidentally, I heard someone on ABC radio a couple of days ago, recounting how his entire class cheated on a Physics exam. They organised a series of minor distractions, and used these to cover students exchanging notes.

    A properly run VCE, however, is really hard to cheat on. The series of writing redrafts Mr Newbie bemoans, for example, shows the development of a piece of writing over time. Even if you started with something someone else had written, by the time you’ve rewritten it three times according to the teacher’s suggestions, it’s a very different piece from the one you started with.

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