BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 45 of 48
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  1. Just received that e-mail as my wife received some AMP shares before they ripped her off 20 years ago. If I were to reply to that steaming pile of horsehit, it would barely be printable.

    I mean, how stupid do they think that we are?

  3. More jobs for the boys on a Friday! Former deputy prime minister Warren Truss appointed Australian Rail Track Corporation chair #auspol

  4. adrian @ #2201 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 3:11 pm

    Just received that e-mail as my wife received some AMP shares before they ripped her off 20 years ago. If I were to reply to that steaming pile of horsehit, it would barely be printable.

    I mean, how stupid do they think that we are?

    Well you can be certain the Banks etc atm are splashing out oodlies of money for PR Spinners to come up with a pile of BS they can trot out.

    Their Banking Licences need to be placed under yearly review.

    Boards needs to be spilled and Executives fired and/or jailed.

    Above all, bonuses clawed back Biggly.

    Reform the method of determining salaries of Bank Executives.

    Add a hefty loading to the Bank’s Tax bill asap and another one where Bank CEO pay is way out of kilter with community expectations as suggested by Wayne Swan.

    Sacked the head of ASIC for incompetence in office and recruit the biggest nastiest SOB to run the regulator, plus pay him on convictions achieved. Plus fund his office to attract the talent needed.

    …..Just to start with.

  5. It was The Greens AND Senator Sam Dastyari AND Senator Wacka Williams that called for the RC into the Banks as far back as 2014:

    Sam Dastyari
    ‏
    Verified account

    @samdastyari
    29m29 minutes ago
    More
    This was 2014 – we were all told we were reckless, stupid and uninformed when a handful of us called for the royal commission. @SenatorSurfer @SenatorWacka

  8. Barnababy is a chip off the old beetroot.

    “We are very happy and just taking it quietly,” Mr Joyce told Fairfax Media.
    Sebastian is Mr Joyce’s fifth child and first son, and Ms Campion’s first child.
    Asked whether the arrival of the baby comprehensively removed any doubts about Mr Joyce’s paternity on the basis of date, he said “yes”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-and-vikki-campion-welcome-baby-boy-20180420-p4zary.html

  9. May have been posted already, If you get opportunity watch the Rachel Maddow interview of Comey, truly enlightening both on facts & Comey’s demeanour. Very good & not the least bit sensational or titillating.

    I streamed MSNBC Live on this site, it seems to repeat / rotate segments so bound to be on again.

    http://www.livenewson.com/american/msnbc.html

  11. One of the ugliest words to come out of the RC is

    exposure!!!

    This has nothing to do with photography or getting caught out in the cold.

    It’s the potential (financial) liability to a business of something.

    It’s a tool of risk management used to evaluate and prioritise problems.

    It seems to have become a tool to decide whether a “dodgy”, maybe illegal, practice would continue.

    So it seems if a “dodgy” practice will net a significant amount and the companies exposure, if caught, is significantly less than that amount, then there is no need to correct or stop the practice.

    The penalties are just a cost of business.

    These companies appear to be breaking laws yet any penalties have basically been factored in already as part of the original decision and, so when they are applied by the regulator they represent absolutely no penalty at all.

    There are two problems here;

    1) The penalties are too small and do not provide a large enough incentive to avoid such practices, and

    2) There is little in the way of personal punishment for those in the business itself making such decisions.

    Gaol time is very difficult thing to factor into the equation.

    The individual must weigh up the exposure of gaol against potential monetary gain to themself.

    A much harder decision to make!!! 🙂

  12. The RC is helping write the ALPs next election campaign…..cut and paste a few quotes, and let the truth destroy the Coalition….
    How sad….

  13. Labor will have a war chest of ads and a war chest of money at the next election.Shorten is setting up Turnbull and the rest of the Coalition,and they cant even see it.

  14. Yes dave. And that’s just a start. CEO wage should be a fixed percentage of the average wage in the organisation.

    Say 50%…

  15. Skynews conveniently omits any reference to VIC/QLD/ACT demand for stronger emissions targets. Funny that.

    The country’s state and territory energy ministers have agreed to move to the final design of the National Energy Guarantee. The Energy Security Board will now finalise plans for the NEG at a meeting in August. Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has praised the outcome of today’s meeting.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5773603217001

  17. Be in it.

    My wife has already been there and done that.

    I’m next. Not today, I hope.

    😎

    I hope so too KayJay, though that reminds me of something my mother said often: ‘Every day when you wake up, think I might die today, and one day you’ll be right.’

  18. C@tmomma @ #2157 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 1:31 pm

    Itza,
    I was just reflecting on the future for whistleblowers this morning going forward if the Coalition government were to get back in again at the next federal election. It would almost be an Orwellian situation where the whistleblower would be vilified or too afraid to come out at all because they would have the full weight of corporate lawyers arraigned against them and no protection in law.

    They legislate the intimidation and punishment of the pursuit of truth. What have we become.

  19. adrian @ #2214 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 3:52 pm

    Yes dave. And that’s just a start. CEO wage should be a fixed percentage of the average wage in the organisation.

    Say 50%…

    I think one multiple suggested is about 40 times the average wage in the organisation – it must be many times above that now when bonus, share options etc are taken into account. Seem to recall its up in the high 70’s as a multiple close to 80 – that may even just be on the cash component.

    The tories, the banks, the big end of town, ASIC will all now BS and play for time – the old chestnuts – hoping the mugs move on.

    ASIC’s heart just doesn’t seem to be in it all. It’s Boss must go and a broom put through the place.

  21. BK @ #2200 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    AMP shareholders have just got an email from Catherine Brenner in which it says, “It’s important to remember that the instances of misconduct that you’ve heard and read about are not representative of who we are, or what we aspire to as an organisation.”
    No, Ms Brenner, it is the corrupt culture and systems within your company – and that starts and ends with you!

    She has to go. Toot sweet.

  24. @TonyB_Melb
    Replying to @abcmelbourne @simonahac
    I want to apply for a $100m grant from the government. I’m pretty sure I can turn brown coal into chocolate. Fairly sure. I’ll give it a go as soon as I get the cash.

  26. Gaol time is very difficult thing to factor into the equation.

    The individual must weigh up the exposure of gaol against potential monetary gain to themself.

    A much harder decision to make!!!

    Especially when a federal Labor government may be in power when the cases come to court. 🙂

  27. The boss cockies in 2016 ‘doin’ it hard’. Including bonuses weekly earnings were

    CBA $236,538
    NAB $128,846
    ANZ $96,154
    Westpac $128,846
    Macquarie 359,615

  30. Does the Treasurer really think the public is so dim?

    Well, they’ve got away with it so far. Why should he think he won’t this time?

  31. Tony Wright asks if Morrison thinks the public is dim.

    Well the evidence of the last election suggests he is entitled to believe a fair proportion of us are.

    I don’t think I have seen many politicians with the ability to lie like Morrison does and he gets away with it too often.

    It’s a bit cute for the Tory media cheersquad (which does not include Wright) to start calling him on it now.

  33. Another lolworthy quote from 2016 by Kelly O’Dwyer:


    A royal commission would go over old ground and would delay well-developed and important reforms, such as lifting the professional standards for advisers.

    A royal commission would send the signal internationally that the government believes there are structural problems with our banking and financial system and could lead to significant repercussions for confidence, international investment, and our AAA credit rating.

    🙄

  34. Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan · 2m2 minutes ago

    If your take is ‘banks had diversity and they behaved badly therefore diversity doesn’t work’, please don’t operate heavy machinery. Or breed.

  35. ratsak says:

    If the public wasn’t dim dimwits like Morrison and Wright would have very different careers.

    Public IQ must have fallen away after “Where the bloody hell are you ? “

  39. Barney

    Fair call, but settle it for damages, costs and an apology and get on with your life.

    Trial won’t start till September and there has been evidence that Rush is struggling emotionally with the impact it has had.

  41. Latest Labor Boo! Bill Shorten Boo! from Scott Morrison:

    ‘Why didn’t Bill Shorten come up with the Terms of Reference for the Royal Commission!’

    Que?

    Scott is NOT drowning, he’s waving. 😉

  47. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/banking-royal-commission-morrison-says-labor-politicising-issue/9679614

    But Mr Morrison has not apologised, instead accusing Mr Shorten of using the royal commission for political point-scoring.

    “I don’t hold back from my criticism of Bill Shorten, not one second, I have got a whole bunch of others I could make of him if but I don’t think that is the focus of today’s discussion,” he said.

    Mr Morrison added, “he changes football teams as quickly as he wants to change seats”, in reference to Mr Shorten considering standing for a new electorate because his own seat is affected by boundary changes.

    “That’s about Bill, it’s always about Bill with Bill,” Mr Morrison said.

    Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer backed Mr Morrison, saying Mr Shorten was part of the Labor Government when high-profile corporate collapses happened, including Storm Financial and Great Southern.

    Ms O’Dwyer accused Mr Shorten of doing “virtually nothing” when he had the opportunity to do so and said the Coalition was “cleaning up the system that Bill Shorten ignored”.

    What will the dim dimwits make of this ❓ Probably not much with TV viewing as follows :-

  48. “Latest Labor Boo! Bill Shorten Boo! from Scott Morrison:
    Why didn’t Bill Shorten come up with the Terms of Reference for the Royal Commission!”

    No problem. Shorten will come up with plenty of terms of reference for the RCs he will commission when in government.

  49. Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus

    It has been a good week. The ACTU has had a record number of people contacting us wanting to join their union ✊

  50. “But Mr Morrison has not apologised, instead accusing Mr Shorten of using the royal commission for political point-scoring.

    “I don’t hold back from my criticism of Bill Shorten, not one second, I have got a whole bunch of others I could make of him if but I don’t think that is the focus of today’s discussion,” he said.”

    SloMo’s motto:

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