BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. Wonder how many votes could be attracted by amending/enforcing the anti-siphoning laws to ensure CA’s broadcast rights deal gets sunk and ODIs & Intl T20s continue to get shown on F2A…

  2. Am enjoying the Sydney tram/light rail discussion. Living in HongKong some years ago, I enjoyed using the small buses which supplemented the conventional ones, which were quicker and much more frequent . I suspect they would be much better for driving around our suburban streets to feed local stations. Much faster around roundabouts, etc.
    Also, one of my pet hates are these traffic humps which must slow buses, ambulances, etc. and I question the need for limited speed zones on main arteries near schools. Should not be necessary for secondary schools and most schools have side streets where the limit should be applied when kids are being picked up/ dropped off. But again, why not some creative solutions to avoid the heavy car use such as walking buses as used in NZ, minibuses, etc. As one who supports public education, it would be interesting to know how much of Sydney’s heavy traffic is caused by private schools.
    On driving through parts of Europe, the only signs we spotted re schools were the colourful railings near their pedestrian crossings , indicating children.
    Finally , my beef regarding the ridiculous situation where public toilets are closed because of a few who use them for drugs. Surely the greater public good should be the primary goal and maybe by providing more injecting rooms , the rest of us can use the facilities we are paying for.
    Am happy to be proved wrong but I do wonder whether we have considered best practice around the world before we impose these restrictions.

  3. On the Bludgertrack graph for SA 2PP, the colours have been reversed on the dots. It appears that L-NP dots are red and ALP dots are blue.

  4. Good morning.

    A couple of short years after crafting a deal to have Assad surrender his chemical weapons, Putin was offering him protection as he deployed them again.
    The decision by the US president, Donald Trump, to launch air strikes on Syriawith backing from the UK and France has proved globally divisive
    “We took every measure and precaution to strike what we targeted and we successfully hit every target,” Dana White, the chief Pentagon spokeswoman, said
    The main overall aim, apart from sending a message to Assad to desist from chemical weapons attacks, was to keep as far away as possible from Russian and Iranian positions, to avoid widening the conflict by directly drawing in Russia or Iran.
    A Higher Loyalty contains little by way of stunning revelation, but offers additional details. Comey recounts the events that led to his dismissal as FBI director. As to be expected, he is unsparing in his disdain.
    May couldn’t risk a parliamentary debate, partly because her arguments are weak, but also because, with a hung parliament and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn so unwilling to play conventional politics, the vote might have been lost.
    Although the same Victrix bolt-action rifle is marketed in the US as suitable for uses including “military” and “law enforcement”, in Australia the Victrix (and similar weapons) are categorised with firearms licensed for hunting and sport.
    Christine Lagarde ought to be a happy woman, but her concerns can be summed up in five words: protectionism, unilateralism, war, debt and inequality.
    Several women also described being harassed by contractors as they went to the toilet alone. Alongside this harassment, female garment workers report routine pregnancy testing and discrimination from factory management.
    The moment a passenger train drove through Sydney’s bushfire was caught on camera, as more than 1,000 hectares in the city’s south-west went up in smoke yesterday.
    For the first time in Victoria, the National Party threw open the vote to decide its candidate for the lower house seat of Shepparton to the community.
    A motion by a conservative Liberal branch linked to Federal MP Kevin Andrews has called for state legislation allowing health practitioners “to offer counselling out of same sex attraction or gender transitioning to patients who request it”… A Fairfax Media investigation last month revealed that gay conversion practices remain prevalent in Australia: hidden in health services, schools, and religious ministries linked to an informal network of churches and counsellors.
    The ignorant imagine that anyone coloured is a refugee. Two comedians in town for the Melbourne International Comedy Festival have been attacked – one bashed badly – after their friend was racially abused in the city.

  5. BB

    Fortunately your assessment was quite right. The attack on Syria was good theatre but not the harbinger of WWIII.

    Very much like a wrestling match on TV. Corfefe???????

    The actual outcome is unclear. However the following seem probable

    1. Further division in Europe – Italy and Germany not joining

    2. trump may get more leeway in withdrawing troops after such a show of force (not sure on this one but possible)

    3. It is now conceivable that Russia will give Syria its s300s for air defence. This is apparently against a promise to Israel, but possibly this attack will provide an excuse to break that promise.

    4. There is now much discussion as to how effective the Russian made but Syrian operated air defences were. There are claims that 75% of the missiles were shot down. I am not convinced but fairly obviously this little sortie was an opportunity for weapons showcasing.

    These are just the possible outcomes i have picked up this morning.

  6. ‘Quislings, collaborators and stooges’: MSNBC’s Scarborough rips into Trump’s Fox News ‘apologists’

    Former Congressman Joe Scarborough (R-FL) believes that defending President Donald Trump will “forever stain” the reputations some leading Fox News conservatives.

    Writing in The Washington Post, the co-host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe slammed the “miserable crew” attacking special counsel Robert Mueller.

    “These are desperate times for the quislings of Trump,” Scarborough observed. “The cost of collaborating with President Trump in the continued debasement of American democracy is becoming far too high.”

    He concluded that “the steady stream of attacks on Justice Department professionals, FBI agents and all the honorable men and women who daily defend Americans against enemies foreign and domestic will forever stain the reputations of Trump’s most shameless apologists.”

  7. Conservative CNN guest busts Trump for why he employs Cohen: ‘He does unsavory business with unsavory people’

    During a CNN panel discussion on President Donald Trump’s enduring relationship with personal attorney Michael Cohen, an editor from the Weekly Standard said that the president responds well to Cohen because his specialty is dealing with “unsavory people.”

    “The fact that he’s recording his calls might mean he’s dealing with a lot of unsavory people. When you think about it, these recordings could be very big because the things that the search warrant said they’re investigating is wire fraud, bank fraud, possible campaign finance violations.”

  8. Malcolm Nance Crashes Trump’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Party By Declaring Airstrikes A Failure

    In an interview with Joy Reid, Nance said the bombings were likely just for show more than anything else.
    “There is no strategy,” the counterterrorism expert said, blasting Trump. “We did nothing to present a threat to the regime itself.”

    Nance said:

    No, there is no rational reason for that because there’s no strategy. Strategy involves long-term planning so that when you do something you understand the consequences of what was done and then what you have to do is manage those consequences. We are not doing that. What we are doing is flailing about and as much as I like carrying out an airstrike against people that really deserve it, that’s precisely what we have here. We went out, we struck the organizational infrastructure of the chemical weapons, but we did nothing to present a threat to the regime itself.

  9. The Syrian attack was the culmination of a week that ‘infuriated’ Trump

    As the report noted, the strike in Syria was the culmination of a week in which Trump was “infuriated” by a flurry of scandal revelations that hit the press – from the FBI raids of Michael Cohen’s offices to the explosive James Comey book.

    If there was ever a time this president needed a major distraction from of all his scandals, including the ongoing Russia investigation, now was it – and the Syrian bombings gave him the perfect opportunity.

  10. “There is no strategy,” the counterterrorism expert said, blasting Trump. “We did nothing to present a threat to the regime itself.”

    As Matt Brown said last night on the ABC, after the missile strike Bashar Al Assad Tweeted a photo of himself walking into a government building in Damascus, briefcase in hand, with the quote, ‘Business as usual’.

    So, just another empty gesture bombing.

  11. I hope I didn’t duplicate too much from yesterday evening. The power was off for nearly 12 hours here, well into the night, and I couldn’t catch up with posts before doing the morning summary. :).

  12. Craig Emerson‏ @DrCraigEmerson · 10h10 hours ago

    Hi @AnimalsAus if you want a former Trade Minister to campaign with you for the phasing out of live sheep exports just let me know.

  13. Sean Hannity loses ratings war even after Trump begs for viewers

    Trump urged his 50 million Twitter followers to watch Hannity Wednesday night, but the Fox Host still came in second place.

    Not even a presidential tweet can turn around Sean Hannity’s second-place ratings on Fox News.

    Just hours before Hannity’s show Wednesday night, Trump tweeted out a plea that people watch the Fox News program that night:

    Yet despite Trump promoting Hannity’s show to his 50 million Twitter followers, Hannity received no ratings bump whatsoever and his show still came in second place behind MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Wednesday night.

    During the 9 p.m. slot, Maddow drew 3.2 million viewers, compared to Hannity’s 3 million.

    In terms of the ad-friendly demographic of viewers between the ages of 25 and 54, Maddow won the night in a landslide with 770,000 viewers to Hannity’s 570,000.

    This is part of a larger trend this spring where Hannity finds himself trailing Maddow on a nearly nightly basis as she emerges as the most-watched host in all of cable news.

    By getting Trump to tweet out a promotion for his show on Wednesday, Hannity played his ace. And it flopped.

  14. lizzie says: Sunday, April 15, 2018 at 7:31 am

    Sorry, blame a disturbed night…


    Doing a terrific job, Lizzie !!!!!!

  15. DTT April 15, 2018 at 6:36 am
    Now you are commenting that Syrian strikes will not lead to WW3 after posting earlier that they could lead to that.

  16. Prime Minister’s and Presidents intoning… That special thing they do to front pages with the black framing… Photos of people looking “resolute”… Phrases like “locked and loaded” on the cover (of the Guardian!)… Yes, it must be WAR! time again, when the journos don their flack jackets (real or imaginary), with talk running to geopolitics and the prospects of nuclear escalation.

    A few million-dollar sky rockets are flown off in the general direction of nowhere in particular, carefully aimed to do the least damage possible to the fewest number of people (particularly Russians, Syrians, Iranians and Israeli artillery spotters). I’ve never met a journo who didn’t hanker for a war so they could strut their stuff. But in this case where are the ullulating women? The battered ambulances coursing through the rubble? The long shots of smoke as another bomb drops on a civilian precinct run out of luck?

    We have been treated to yet another billion dollar fizzer. Donald Trump needs to look like he doesn’t like the same Russians who arranged his job for him. The Russians need to ramp up the old Cold War rhetoric and boost their client in the White House. Theresa May thinks she’s Margaret Thatcher. And F*CK knows what the French are up to. Malcolm Turnbull dribbles out some sycophantic platitudes fully supporting something or other (hoping this might be his “Howard-in-Washington” moment).

    We’ve all been here before, I think.

  17. Bushfire Bill,
    I think the French were out for a Training Run, and to let the Russians know they are no pushovers, neither will be NATO, just in case Russia and Putin were wondering. 🙂

  18. Greg Barns‏ @BarnsGreg · 22h22 hours ago

    #auspol seriously sad and dangerous that Canberra journalists cannot see Peter Dutton for what he is-a dangerous neo fascist.

  19. David Marler‏ @Qldaah · 9h9 hours ago

    If a Labor minister had been involved in half the cruelty of Peter Dutton there would be a constant stream of front pages & nightly news bulletins. Reporters would be dispatched to hound the person wherever they went. #DarthDutton #qldpol #auspol

  20. daretotread.

    The systems the Syrians have are 30 years old so not really a “show casing” opportunity. Unless they really did disable as many as has been claimed.

  21. Lizzie

    Good work.

    What’s the go with the power outages ❓

    I cannot recall the last time we had a power outage here in the wilds of Newcastle, not counting the time a magpie was zapped atop a power pole nearbye.

  22. So much easier to simply tweet on ‘executive time’ and make policy on the run through throwaway remarks at events than form a comprehensive strategy by listening to those who actually know what they’re doing and have learned from experience.

    The president’s dilemma is that strength and resolve do not necessarily equal a well-thought-out Syria strategy. If Assad ignores Friday’s relatively modest military strike and uses chemical weapons, Trump faces a difficult choice. He can escalate, pulling the U.S. military and his administration into a messy conflict that he recently said he wanted to abandon. Or he can do nothing and risk appearing weak.

    Trump’s remarks reflected a view of how America should fight its wars that differs dramatically from many of his generals, who have pressed to keep U.S. troops in places such as Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan indefinitely to rebuild these broken societies and ensure the enemy cannot regenerate.

    Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on Friday called on “all civilized nations to urgently unite” and work to end the Syrian civil war through the stalled United Nations peace process. Trump, by contrast, did not mention diplomacy in his remarks. Rather he suggested the best way to ensure peace rested with a military so powerful that no sane nation or terrorist group would even think of messing with it.

  23. KayJay

    The power company explained that the problem was “the weather”, which could mean anything. Strong winds bring trees down and even a branch over a line will cut out an area. When I spoke to a “real” person, she said they’d had “a couple of unexpected problems” and power would be off until 11 pm. I HATE going to bed in the dark and trying to read by candle and torch!! Also, yesterday was one of the days Simon the Golden Retriever decided to eat grass and make retching sounds for half the night. 🙁

  24. Brian StelterVerified account@brianstelter
    9h9 hours ago

    Pentagon spokesperson: “The Russian disinformation campaign has already begun” re: Syria strikes. “There has been a 2,000% increase in Russian trolls in the last 24 hours.”

    One of the best troll busters online is this guy:

  25. BushfireBill

    the journos don their flack jackets (real or imaginary), with talk running to geopolitics and the prospects of nuclear escalation.

    The UK papers went straight into war porn mode with the Independent and Grauniad running hours of “Live” coverage features giving us detailed coverage of, well nothing much.

    After seeing all the headlines of comments made by Theresa Churchill I discovered the extent of UK involvement. What a LO,L 4 tornado jets took off from their base on Cyprus and fired off their missiles as they did a lap of the island.

    At least one journo has it right.

    Thank you, America, for letting us tag along in this Syrian war

    Hey Uncle Donald!

    We just wanted to say thanks for letting us join in the international p***ing contest you started after Vlad’s half-tamed Syrian thug got out of line.

    We were feeling a bit lonely here on our island because we’ve alienated just about all of our allies and it would have been too much were it just Emmanuel Macron who got to talk tough about red lines and play at being your BFF.

    The thought of the French playing le poodle in Syria for the second time when it’s our job – it doesn’t bear thinking about.

    Just so you know, this is how we plan to play it over the next few days.

    We’ll continue to make a big fuss while crying crocodile tears for the Syrians who got gassed, even though, like you, we’re not having them rock up on our shores if they decide to flee the carnage. We’ll leave that to Angela Merkel!

    We’ll have a load of emergency cabinet meetings and get the media to photograph and film us looking all serious and grave on the way in and out.

  26. Vic:

    Some are predicting it’ll be a Saturday night (US time) massacre at the DoJ while everyone’s attention is diverted to Syria.

  27. phylactella says: Sunday, April 15, 2018 at 8:33 am

    For your enjoyment: The Atlantic has a page with 37 jaw-dropping aerial images from China. I particularly like the giant carved statues of Emperors Yan and Huang – built to be bigger than Mount Rushmore (No.25)!


    Fantastic photos !!!! – not sure I could walk along the glass-floored sightseeing walkway in Zhangjiajie ….. pic 1

  28. Victoria

    Oh, he has one of these “Mum! I’ve got indigestion!” attacks at least once a month. The strange thing is that he can eat normal meals and swallow the food, then saves a sausage of grass to bring up a day or two later. I don’t know where he keeps it!!

  29. Fess

    Could well happen.
    Trump is the chaos agent.
    Apparently it has been reported that Rosenstein expects to be fired.

    I am very confident that no matter what Trump does to derail everything. The DOJ have gamed this and have dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s.
    It will all work out

  30. phylactella

    You would have to be a bit nervous at the temple ( No.6) . It looks primed for erosion to cause it to “fall off” the hill.

  31. Matt Golding on Trump’s latest position on the TPP

    Mark Knight on the rail link to Melbourne airport


    Apparently wages may start rising soon – this illustrates a Jess Irvine article$zoom_0.195%2C$multiply_1.0317460317460319%2C$ratio_0.666667%2C$width_378%2C$x_170%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/ea3b24dcc82419e6f336354ea0714b069963502f

    Illustrating a Peter Harcher article on “who is most correct about the urgency of a humanitarian intake of white South African farmers”$width_780%2C$height_439/t_crop_auto/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/6116c3c7270d99bc3a014cfd1fa95c5dcbdd0dbd

    Leunig is not optimistic$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/ea7841a64e1aeccc6bacc83a58028377ed734780

    Andrew Dyson on the US missile strikes

    Alan Moir in Sydney corruption’

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