After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.
On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:
Wonder how many votes could be attracted by amending/enforcing the anti-siphoning laws to ensure CA’s broadcast rights deal gets sunk and ODIs & Intl T20s continue to get shown on F2A…
Am enjoying the Sydney tram/light rail discussion. Living in HongKong some years ago, I enjoyed using the small buses which supplemented the conventional ones, which were quicker and much more frequent . I suspect they would be much better for driving around our suburban streets to feed local stations. Much faster around roundabouts, etc.
Also, one of my pet hates are these traffic humps which must slow buses, ambulances, etc. and I question the need for limited speed zones on main arteries near schools. Should not be necessary for secondary schools and most schools have side streets where the limit should be applied when kids are being picked up/ dropped off. But again, why not some creative solutions to avoid the heavy car use such as walking buses as used in NZ, minibuses, etc. As one who supports public education, it would be interesting to know how much of Sydney’s heavy traffic is caused by private schools.
On driving through parts of Europe, the only signs we spotted re schools were the colourful railings near their pedestrian crossings , indicating children.
Finally , my beef regarding the ridiculous situation where public toilets are closed because of a few who use them for drugs. Surely the greater public good should be the primary goal and maybe by providing more injecting rooms , the rest of us can use the facilities we are paying for.
Am happy to be proved wrong but I do wonder whether we have considered best practice around the world before we impose these restrictions.
On the Bludgertrack graph for SA 2PP, the colours have been reversed on the dots. It appears that L-NP dots are red and ALP dots are blue.
Good morning.
A couple of short years after crafting a deal to have Assad surrender his chemical weapons, Putin was offering him protection as he deployed them again.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/direct-link-between-trump-s-syria-air-strikes-and-obama-inaction-20180414-p4z9mh.html
The decision by the US president, Donald Trump, to launch air strikes on Syriawith backing from the UK and France has proved globally divisive
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/14/airstrikes-syria-world-reacts-bombing-us-uk-french-forces
“We took every measure and precaution to strike what we targeted and we successfully hit every target,” Dana White, the chief Pentagon spokeswoman, said
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/14/allies-dispute-russian-and-syrian-claims-of-shot-down-missiles
The main overall aim, apart from sending a message to Assad to desist from chemical weapons attacks, was to keep as far away as possible from Russian and Iranian positions, to avoid widening the conflict by directly drawing in Russia or Iran.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/14/trumps-attack-on-syria-is-not-without-risk-but-its-not-world-war-three
A Higher Loyalty contains little by way of stunning revelation, but offers additional details. Comey recounts the events that led to his dismissal as FBI director. As to be expected, he is unsparing in his disdain.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/apr/14/a-higher-loyalty-review-james-comey-trump-book
May couldn’t risk a parliamentary debate, partly because her arguments are weak, but also because, with a hung parliament and Labour under Jeremy Corbyn so unwilling to play conventional politics, the vote might have been lost.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/14/theresa-may-essential-argument-for-syria-strikes-nonsensical
Although the same Victrix bolt-action rifle is marketed in the US as suitable for uses including “military” and “law enforcement”, in Australia the Victrix (and similar weapons) are categorised with firearms licensed for hunting and sport.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/14/guns-advertised-on-brisbane-billboard-sold-as-military-use-in-us
Christine Lagarde ought to be a happy woman, but her concerns can be summed up in five words: protectionism, unilateralism, war, debt and inequality.
Several women also described being harassed by contractors as they went to the toilet alone. Alongside this harassment, female garment workers report routine pregnancy testing and discrimination from factory management.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-15/myanmar-garment-workers-sexual-harassment/9643960
The moment a passenger train drove through Sydney’s bushfire was caught on camera, as more than 1,000 hectares in the city’s south-west went up in smoke yesterday.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-15/sydney-fire-video-captures-moment-train-drives-through-blaze/9659488
For the first time in Victoria, the National Party threw open the vote to decide its candidate for the lower house seat of Shepparton to the community.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/preselection-with-a-difference-as-farmers-take-on-a-bolt-from-the-blue-20180414-p4z9np.html
A motion by a conservative Liberal branch linked to Federal MP Kevin Andrews has called for state legislation allowing health practitioners “to offer counselling out of same sex attraction or gender transitioning to patients who request it”… A Fairfax Media investigation last month revealed that gay conversion practices remain prevalent in Australia: hidden in health services, schools, and religious ministries linked to an informal network of churches and counsellors.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-under-pressure-to-allow-gay-conversion-therapy-for-kids-20180414-p4z9lc.html
The ignorant imagine that anyone coloured is a refugee. Two comedians in town for the Melbourne International Comedy Festival have been attacked – one bashed badly – after their friend was racially abused in the city.
https://www.theage.com.au/melbourne-news/melbourne-comedy-festival-performers-attacked-friend-racially-abused-20180414-p4z9n1.html
BB
Fortunately your assessment was quite right. The attack on Syria was good theatre but not the harbinger of WWIII.
Very much like a wrestling match on TV. Corfefe???????
The actual outcome is unclear. However the following seem probable
1. Further division in Europe – Italy and Germany not joining
2. trump may get more leeway in withdrawing troops after such a show of force (not sure on this one but possible)
3. It is now conceivable that Russia will give Syria its s300s for air defence. This is apparently against a promise to Israel, but possibly this attack will provide an excuse to break that promise.
4. There is now much discussion as to how effective the Russian made but Syrian operated air defences were. There are claims that 75% of the missiles were shot down. I am not convinced but fairly obviously this little sortie was an opportunity for weapons showcasing.
These are just the possible outcomes i have picked up this morning.
‘Quislings, collaborators and stooges’: MSNBC’s Scarborough rips into Trump’s Fox News ‘apologists’
Former Congressman Joe Scarborough (R-FL) believes that defending President Donald Trump will “forever stain” the reputations some leading Fox News conservatives.
Writing in The Washington Post, the co-host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe slammed the “miserable crew” attacking special counsel Robert Mueller.
“These are desperate times for the quislings of Trump,” Scarborough observed. “The cost of collaborating with President Trump in the continued debasement of American democracy is becoming far too high.”
He concluded that “the steady stream of attacks on Justice Department professionals, FBI agents and all the honorable men and women who daily defend Americans against enemies foreign and domestic will forever stain the reputations of Trump’s most shameless apologists.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/quislings-collaborators-stooges-msnbcs-scarborough-rips-trumps-fox-news-apologists/
Conservative CNN guest busts Trump for why he employs Cohen: ‘He does unsavory business with unsavory people’
During a CNN panel discussion on President Donald Trump’s enduring relationship with personal attorney Michael Cohen, an editor from the Weekly Standard said that the president responds well to Cohen because his specialty is dealing with “unsavory people.”
“The fact that he’s recording his calls might mean he’s dealing with a lot of unsavory people. When you think about it, these recordings could be very big because the things that the search warrant said they’re investigating is wire fraud, bank fraud, possible campaign finance violations.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/conservative-cnn-guest-busts-trump-employs-cohen-unsavory-business-unsavory-people/
Malcolm Nance Crashes Trump’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ Party By Declaring Airstrikes A Failure
In an interview with Joy Reid, Nance said the bombings were likely just for show more than anything else.
“There is no strategy,” the counterterrorism expert said, blasting Trump. “We did nothing to present a threat to the regime itself.”
Nance said:
No, there is no rational reason for that because there’s no strategy. Strategy involves long-term planning so that when you do something you understand the consequences of what was done and then what you have to do is manage those consequences. We are not doing that. What we are doing is flailing about and as much as I like carrying out an airstrike against people that really deserve it, that’s precisely what we have here. We went out, we struck the organizational infrastructure of the chemical weapons, but we did nothing to present a threat to the regime itself.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/14/mission-accomplished-trump.html
The Syrian attack was the culmination of a week that ‘infuriated’ Trump
As the report noted, the strike in Syria was the culmination of a week in which Trump was “infuriated” by a flurry of scandal revelations that hit the press – from the FBI raids of Michael Cohen’s offices to the explosive James Comey book.
If there was ever a time this president needed a major distraction from of all his scandals, including the ongoing Russia investigation, now was it – and the Syrian bombings gave him the perfect opportunity.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/14/russia-defense-lawyers-syria.html
“There is no strategy,” the counterterrorism expert said, blasting Trump. “We did nothing to present a threat to the regime itself.”
As Matt Brown said last night on the ABC, after the missile strike Bashar Al Assad Tweeted a photo of himself walking into a government building in Damascus, briefcase in hand, with the quote, ‘Business as usual’.
So, just another empty gesture bombing.
I hope I didn’t duplicate too much from yesterday evening. The power was off for nearly 12 hours here, well into the night, and I couldn’t catch up with posts before doing the morning summary. :).
Sean Hannity loses ratings war even after Trump begs for viewers
Trump urged his 50 million Twitter followers to watch Hannity Wednesday night, but the Fox Host still came in second place.
Not even a presidential tweet can turn around Sean Hannity’s second-place ratings on Fox News.
Just hours before Hannity’s show Wednesday night, Trump tweeted out a plea that people watch the Fox News program that night:
Yet despite Trump promoting Hannity’s show to his 50 million Twitter followers, Hannity received no ratings bump whatsoever and his show still came in second place behind MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow on Wednesday night.
During the 9 p.m. slot, Maddow drew 3.2 million viewers, compared to Hannity’s 3 million.
In terms of the ad-friendly demographic of viewers between the ages of 25 and 54, Maddow won the night in a landslide with 770,000 viewers to Hannity’s 570,000.
This is part of a larger trend this spring where Hannity finds himself trailing Maddow on a nearly nightly basis as she emerges as the most-watched host in all of cable news.
By getting Trump to tweet out a promotion for his show on Wednesday, Hannity played his ace. And it flopped.
https://shareblue.com/trump-sean-hannity-fox-news-second-place-ratings/
Wow!
lizzie,
You forgot to include the link to the Christine Lagarde story. 🙂
Sorry, blame a disturbed night…
Christine Lagarde ought to be a happy woman, but her concerns can be summed up in five words: protectionism, unilateralism, war, debt and inequality.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/14/imf-senses-not-all-well-economic-upswing-christine-lagarde
lizzie says: Sunday, April 15, 2018 at 7:31 am
Sorry, blame a disturbed night…
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Doing a terrific job, Lizzie !!!!!!
DTT April 15, 2018 at 6:36 am
Now you are commenting that Syrian strikes will not lead to WW3 after posting earlier that they could lead to that.
Thanks, lizzie! You are doing an amazing job filling in for BK! Don’t worry, be happy! 🙂
Prime Minister’s and Presidents intoning… That special thing they do to front pages with the black framing… Photos of people looking “resolute”… Phrases like “locked and loaded” on the cover (of the Guardian!)… Yes, it must be WAR! time again, when the journos don their flack jackets (real or imaginary), with talk running to geopolitics and the prospects of nuclear escalation.
A few million-dollar sky rockets are flown off in the general direction of nowhere in particular, carefully aimed to do the least damage possible to the fewest number of people (particularly Russians, Syrians, Iranians and Israeli artillery spotters). I’ve never met a journo who didn’t hanker for a war so they could strut their stuff. But in this case where are the ullulating women? The battered ambulances coursing through the rubble? The long shots of smoke as another bomb drops on a civilian precinct run out of luck?
We have been treated to yet another billion dollar fizzer. Donald Trump needs to look like he doesn’t like the same Russians who arranged his job for him. The Russians need to ramp up the old Cold War rhetoric and boost their client in the White House. Theresa May thinks she’s Margaret Thatcher. And F*CK knows what the French are up to. Malcolm Turnbull dribbles out some sycophantic platitudes fully supporting something or other (hoping this might be his “Howard-in-Washington” moment).
We’ve all been here before, I think.
Bushfire Bill,
I think the French were out for a Training Run, and to let the Russians know they are no pushovers, neither will be NATO, just in case Russia and Putin were wondering. 🙂
Bushfire bill at 8:01 am
Theresa May thinks she is Margaret Thatcher
TM thinks she is MT. But she is like our MT.
Nothing happened. That sounds like being pushed over to me.
daretotread.
The systems the Syrians have are 30 years old so not really a “show casing” opportunity. Unless they really did disable as many as has been claimed.
Lizzie
Good work.
What’s the go with the power outages ❓
I cannot recall the last time we had a power outage here in the wilds of Newcastle, not counting the time a magpie was zapped atop a power pole nearbye.
☮
So much easier to simply tweet on ‘executive time’ and make policy on the run through throwaway remarks at events than form a comprehensive strategy by listening to those who actually know what they’re doing and have learned from experience.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-tries-to-appear-strong-in-syria-even-as-he-plans-to-withdraw/2018/04/14/4bb75fe6-400f-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.20f04fd33214
For your enjoyment: The Atlantic has a page with 37 jaw-dropping aerial images from China. I particularly like the giant carved statues of Emperors Yan and Huang – built to be bigger than Mount Rushmore (No.25)!
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/04/china-viewed-from-above/557789/
https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/direct-link-between-trump-s-syria-air-strikes-and-obama-inaction-20180414-p4z9mh.html
This article basically confirms what I quoted from David Kilcullen yesterday afternoon.
Ven – MT as in empty?
KayJay
The power company explained that the problem was “the weather”, which could mean anything. Strong winds bring trees down and even a branch over a line will cut out an area. When I spoke to a “real” person, she said they’d had “a couple of unexpected problems” and power would be off until 11 pm. I HATE going to bed in the dark and trying to read by candle and torch!! Also, yesterday was one of the days Simon the Golden Retriever decided to eat grass and make retching sounds for half the night. 🙁
One of the best troll busters online is this guy: https://twitter.com/TAPSTRIMEDIA
lizzie:
Sympathies, it sounds like you’ve not had a good night.
Morning
Thanks Lizzie and Phoenix for today’s reports
Fess
The good thing is that the garden has had some rain – at last.
Lizzie
The winds were not fun!
Hope your dog is okay?
Yep. The Syria attack went as expected
BushfireBill
The UK papers went straight into war porn mode with the Independent and Grauniad running hours of “Live” coverage features giving us detailed coverage of, well nothing much.
After seeing all the headlines of comments made by Theresa Churchill I discovered the extent of UK involvement. What a LO,L 4 tornado jets took off from their base on Cyprus and fired off their missiles as they did a lap of the island.
At least one journo has it right.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-syria-bombs-military-intervention-theresa-may-boris-johnson-a8304536.html
Vic:
Some are predicting it’ll be a Saturday night (US time) massacre at the DoJ while everyone’s attention is diverted to Syria.
phylactella says: Sunday, April 15, 2018 at 8:33 am
For your enjoyment: The Atlantic has a page with 37 jaw-dropping aerial images from China. I particularly like the giant carved statues of Emperors Yan and Huang – built to be bigger than Mount Rushmore (No.25)!
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2018/04/china-viewed-from-above/557789/
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Fantastic photos !!!! – not sure I could walk along the glass-floored sightseeing walkway in Zhangjiajie ….. pic 1
Victoria
Oh, he has one of these “Mum! I’ve got indigestion!” attacks at least once a month. The strange thing is that he can eat normal meals and swallow the food, then saves a sausage of grass to bring up a day or two later. I don’t know where he keeps it!!
Fess
Could well happen.
Trump is the chaos agent.
Apparently it has been reported that Rosenstein expects to be fired.
I am very confident that no matter what Trump does to derail everything. The DOJ have gamed this and have dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s.
It will all work out
phylactella
You would have to be a bit nervous at the temple ( No.6) . It looks primed for erosion to cause it to “fall off” the hill.
Lizzie
Dogs are funny like that!
Matt Golding on Trump’s latest position on the TPP
Mark Knight on the rail link to Melbourne airport
Apparently wages may start rising soon – this illustrates a Jess Irvine article
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.195%2C$multiply_1.0317460317460319%2C$ratio_0.666667%2C$width_378%2C$x_170%2C$y_0/t_crop_custom/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/ea3b24dcc82419e6f336354ea0714b069963502f
Illustrating a Peter Harcher article on “who is most correct about the urgency of a humanitarian intake of white South African farmers”
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_780%2C$height_439/t_crop_auto/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/6116c3c7270d99bc3a014cfd1fa95c5dcbdd0dbd
Leunig is not optimistic
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/ea7841a64e1aeccc6bacc83a58028377ed734780
Andrew Dyson on the US missile strikes
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/the-latest-illustrations-from-artist-andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv
Alan Moir in Sydney corruption’http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html
Last post is today’s cartoon corner.
phylactella @ #29 Sunday, April 15th, 2018 – 5:33 am
Thanks, as you’d expect from a such large Country it is quite stunning and diverse. 🙂
Vic:
Reports like this give hope you are correct.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/13/politics/rod-rosenstein-ethics-recusal/index.html
Correct link for Moir
Alan Moir on corruption in Sydney
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20150921-gjrcxr.html