BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. citizen says:
    Friday, April 20, 2018 at 9:25 pm

    …”From what I’ve read, American consumers are way ahead of Australian consumers in using social media and other methods to vent about shoddy goods”….

    From what I have seen, on my latest trip, all US Americans are utter retards, and all Austraians are also retarded, British are slightly less fucked in the head, but they also have NO clue of the depravation the rest of the world suffers at our expense.

    Go be a 9 year old boy, sleeping in the dirt, next to effluent, amongnst bags of rubbish, waiting for your dad to get a 14 hour round trip truck job from Guardelajara to Mexico City for 1850 Pesos and complain about your pointless life.

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