BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. Torchbearer says:
    Friday, April 20, 2018 at 8:17 pm
    The only (and very successful) way I get recourse from companies that rip me off, or I believe should be behaving better is to go straight to their ‘happy corporate citizen Facebook’ page and vent…Jetstar cancels your flight, go to Facebook….expensive appliance breaks down just after warranty runs out, go to Facebook, angry at your bank, go to Facebook etc….don’t waste your time with polite letters or phone calls.
    Sounds harsh, but this is class war going on….

    From what I’ve read, American consumers are way ahead of Australian consumers in using social media and other methods to vent about shoddy goods and services. For example, I doubt there are many favourable comments on this website:

    https://www.pissedconsumer.com

  2. Steve777 @ #2299 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Wait, Kelly’s husband is a banker? Or is that just rhyming slang? If the former, why us she anywhere near the Finance Ministry.

    Apparently. I didn’t know either, and nor has this fact been disclosed during any of the interviews she has given.

    This makes the need to know about Barnaby’s baby look like child’s play (no pun intended) by comparison .

  3. ajm

    Anecdotal evidence and CV suggests Hockey’s wife is way smarter than him, not that that would be hard.

    Maybe she should have been treasurer.

  4. She met Jon Mant, a law/engineering student, while both were in student politics at Melbourne. “I didn’t really like him for the first two years,” she says. “We had slightly different perspectives on the world.” While politically aligned – both were Liberals – they had “different approaches to politics”. They were together for seven years before marrying in 2006. Mant works as a corporate adviser at an international bank.

    From 2010 article.

  5. Antonbrukner … entirely agree. My Industry Superfund consistently outperforms the for profits by 1-2% per annum in a balanced fund and very, very low fees. With the beauty of compound interest Im thousands ahead as a result. You’d be a fool to have your precious super in anything other than Industry Super.

  6. From what I’ve read, American consumers are way ahead of Australian consumers in using social media and other methods to vent about shoddy goods and services.

    Aussie Millennials are onto it as well. My son had a problem with the service he was getting from his Orthodentist. So he said, ‘If I don’t get my money back from him’ (he had pre-paid in full), ‘I am going to go on every review site on the internet and make his life hell by giving him the worst reviews I can come up with!’

    He got his money back. 🙂

  7. Confessions @ #2293 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 5:49 pm

    Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    4h4 hours ago
    This Sunday on #Insiders @barriecassidy interviews Financial Services Minister @KellyODwyer #auspol

    I hope he grills her on why she and her partyroom held out for so long on the RC and why her recent conversion in the wake of these customer experiences makes her look exactly like the craven hypocrite she and her frontbench colleagues are.

    Barrie Cassidy: Kelly O’Dwyer, welcome to Insiders. Congratulations on the additional Ministry responsibilities this week.

    Kelly O’Dwyer: Thanks Barrie … err … what additional responsibilities?

    BC: It was announced Friday and reported in the Guardian. You’re now also

    The Minister for Rubbing Soothing Lotion into the Gently Spanked Buttocks of the Banks!

    What particular skills do you bring to your new position?

    KO’D: …

    🙂

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/20/the-banks-are-copping-it-right-up-their-fiduciary-regulation-hole

  8. So Joyce Jr has arrived.

    “And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Armidale to be born?”

  9. It won’t matter how many different ways from Sunday on Insiders that Barrie Cassidy tries to get Kelly O’Dwyer to admit that the Coalition were wrong to resist the Banks RC for so long because they obviously have their lines worked out to counter that assertion and there is no way any of them will admit it. Especially Kelly O’Dwyer, whose whole political life has revolved around learning her lines dutifully and reciting the government’s talking points to camera.

  10. Barney:

    What a great FDOTM cartoon. So true with the parallels between Aboriginal fine defaulters and these sleazy corporate CEOs who escape accountability for their infractions.

  11. An interesting ‘good news’ story from country Victoria which I heard on The World Today.

    Racist ‘no curries here’ sign in bottle shop sparks outrage in regional Victorian community

    An outraged community has sent a clear message that racism will not be tolerated in regional Victoria, after a “no curries here” sign was displayed in a local bottle shop.

    The sign was displayed in Horsham’s Premix King liquor outlet earlier this year while an Indian family was preparing to open a new Cellarbrations store around the corner.

    “It was a shock — I didn’t know how to react,” Cellarbations co-owner Sukoon Bedi said.

    “You hear about it in the news sometimes and you go ‘surely not’ … 30 or 40 years ago maybe, but not in this age.

    When his business partner Pooja Putani heard about the signs, she said she was “a bit scared actually”.

    She and husband Mukesh were concerned that their 15-year-old daughter and 11-year-old son might be bullied in their new town, and went so far as to move their daughter to a new school.

    “If the same thing will happen with my kids in the school then how are they going to handle this?” Ms Putani said.

    Community expresses disgust

    It was Premix King Horsham customers like Loucas who told the new business owners about the sign in the competitor’s store.

    “It was written on the glass of the fridge door in whiteboard marker or something that would stand out on the fridge,” Loucas said.

    “I did hear that there were other signs around but I didn’t see them.”

    Other customers told the ABC that material with the same sentiment was plastered over existing displays.

    t did not take long for the community to take to social media, labelling Premix King Horsham “racist” and vowing never to enter the store again.

    The liquor store opted to remove its review function after more than 100 Facebook users gave it a one-star review and expressed their disapproval.

    Backlash led to gala opening

    Opening day of Cellarbrations attracted more than 600 people, much to the surprise of Mr Bedi.

    “People started coming in and said, ‘we’re going to support you from now on’ and we didn’t know what was going on,” he said.

    “[The sales] we’re doing today, we were thinking we were going to be doing that in five years’ time.

    “I haven’t seen it anywhere in Australia that people come out so openly and say, you know what we’re going to stand against this.

    “Country towns like Horsham, they’re beautiful,” he said.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-20/racist-bottle-shop-sign-sparks-backlash-in-regional-victoria/9679654

  12. “It won’t matter how many different ways from Sunday on Insiders that Barrie Cassidy tries to get Kelly O’Dwyer to admit that the Coalition were wrong to resist the Banks RC for so long because they obviously have their lines worked out…”

    Play videos from 2014-16 of Government Ministers denying the need for a Royal Commission (possibly including Kelly), saying the Banks are doing a great job, solemnly declaring that to hold a Royal Commission would collapse the economy and/or bring on the Apocalypse (other something), that the banks are great, that it’s all a socialist plot. Hell, even replay the “Fake Tradie” ad (he was apparently devoted to his bank) and ask her to comment.

  13. Even when you die, there will be no proper investigation into the workplace circumstances…

    Unless it happens on a program started by Labor.

    Unlike Labor with the Home Insulation Program, the Government specifically legislated to coerce the victims of their inability to run an economy that can employ everyone into their pet project and legislated away their rights.

  14. One senses the country is edging away from the free market to ‘a fair go’. Turnbul resisting a banking Royal Commission sums it up perfectly. He’s swimming against the tide.

  15. Steve777 @ #2323 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 10:30 pm

    “It won’t matter how many different ways from Sunday on Insiders that Barrie Cassidy tries to get Kelly O’Dwyer to admit that the Coalition were wrong to resist the Banks RC for so long because they obviously have their lines worked out…”

    Play videos from 2014-16 of Government Ministers denying the need for a Royal Commission (possibly including Kelly), saying the Banks are doing a great job, solemnly declaring that to hold a Royal Commission would collapse the economy and/or bring on the Apocalypse (other something), that the banks are great, that it’s all a socialist plot. Hell, even replay the “Fake Tradie” ad (he was apparently devoted to his bank) and ask her to comment.

    Not. Going. To. Happen.

  16. There are times when your past comes back to remind you!

    I had a set of circumstances explained to me by someone aggrieved by the conduct of Bank of Queensland Limited

    The person was the Executor of her surviving parents Last Will and Testament – where the equal beneficiaries were the Executor and her 2 siblings

    The Executor discharged her responsibilities in a pristine manner including by legal advice

    Immediately upon the advertising of the Grant of Probate the Executor was served with papers by solicitors acting for Bank of Queensland

    It transpired that the brother, resident in Queensland – all other family members resident in Melbourne – had advanced a Housing Loan and other monies to the brother immediately upon his release from jail following a 7 year sentence for various crimes as a Mortgage Originator and where the Judgement noted the brother came to the Court with a history of convictions (and being bankrupted)

    The issue for the Executor was not money – it was the distress caused and the legal expenses incurred and where each party was responsible for their legal costs ultimately

    What I ascertained was that the brother’s home had been settled after a Mortgagee Auction some 8 months prior to the death of his Mother

    Bankruptcy proceeding were initiated by the Bank at that time – then a Deed of Forbearance entered into beteeen the Bank and the debtor some 6 months before the death of the Mother

    The basis was that the Debtor presented that his Mother had a terminal illness and that he would be a beneficiary of the resultant Estate

    And there it stayed until the advertising of the Grant of Probate when documentation shows bankruptcy proceedings were recommended and documents were served on the unsuspecting Executor who had no knowledge of the circumstances of the brother past his release Custody – as did not any other member of the family including the Mother prior to her death

    So, in practice Bank of Queensland, whose grow the book regardless business model was based on Brokers lent to a person with the history of the borrower – and the outcome was what it was

    Then deliberately lay in wait fir the death of the Mother for 8 months then acting as they did

    The distress of legal proceedings was what it was

    There was no negotiation and the legal representatives for the Executor of the Deceased Estate described the representatives of the Estate of the Bankrupt as they did – and savagely saying the only interest was fees

    Legal fees to the Estate of the Bankrupt were in excess of $70,000-

    Legal fees to the Estate of the Deceased were $30,000-, reducing each beneficiaries share by $10,000-

    The Estate of the Deceased was $450,000-

    Those negatively impacted were the Unsecured Creditors who received no distribution

    Bank of Queensland were repaid in full – and there must have been further borrowings including then penalty interest rates and fees and charges

    It was the Bank of Queensland decision to lend

    I responded that this issue revolved around the moral compass of Bank of Queensland and those who represented them

    To sit and await the death of a person was unconscienable in my view and the view of those who introduced me to this matter

    It compounded the distress on the loss of a Mother and that was the damage caused

    In questioning the moral compass of Bank of Queensland and their external representatives the Banking Industry Ombadsman upheld the Bank of Queensland defence that the Executor of the Estate of the Deceased was not a client of the bank and could not lodge a complaint

    The other statutory bodies responded that they had noted the matter and would act if similar circumstances were advised to them

    The lending decision of Bank of Queensland courtesy of a Mortgage Broker was errant and ill advised

    And this was the outcome

    Appointments are a gravy train sought by accounting and legal practices for outcomes such as the – fee income, exclusively

    Undertakings were on offer but were rejected in favour of proceedings at the Supreme Court in Melbourne

    I am aware the Solicitor practice has “form” in such matters principally acting for NAB including matters being reported in print media

    My involvement was pro bono seeking an apology from the bank for the distress it caused and misrepresentations – including that it explain and justify its lending approval processes

    I am aware that 3 of the Major banks queried as to practice would not have lent in the first instance due to protocols in regards convicted criminals

    Grow the book, regardless

    And focus on Mortgage Brokers

  17. That number needs to be taken in context relative to whatever it was in 2016. I tend to suspect that it’s trending downwards, because minority populations have been steadily gaining ground for years and continue to do so. Which I assume is a big part of what the Republican party is so devoutly anti-migrant (and anti-non-white). The same statistic could be framed as “56 percent of voters belong to demographics that overwhelmingly back Democrats”.

    And working class white voters should be less stupid and stop voting directly against their own best interests. Backing Republicans has gotten them and will continue to get them absolutely nothing. The Republican party doesn’t exist to help working-class people of any color. They spit on the working class.

  18. Anyone tried to get money out of AMP Super lately?

    Over 65, so no tax or other implications.

    No applicable withdrawal form on AMP website (though there are heaps of others if you want to invest monies with them), just pages telling you how bad a decision it is to look after your own money.

    Telephone them and get a load of gobbledygook from either a dope or an outstanding obfuscator, but in any event getting a promise of some action in a few days.

    Ten days later, receive an advice that you are now connected to one of their aps allowing you to withdraw.

    Go to that site and be told that you can only withdraw $20,000 a day by some obscure process. I want it all, you towrags!

    I determine to escape their clutches by opening an industry fund super account to deposit future employer contributions while I fulminate over how to recover my money from AMP.

    Within a couple of days the industry Fund inform me they have located my AMP super ( about $10000 less that AMP had told me was in my account). The industry fund was apparently informed of this by inquiry from the ATO. They asked me if I wanted to transfer the AMP Super into my super account with them. Yes, please!!

    2 or 3 clicks on a form and all that is necessary was completed online.

    So now I will have to wait till the money is transferred, then withdraw the capital from my Industry fund account.

    My whole intention in withdrawing the funds was in anticipation of a modest but significant share market downturn, and I’ve lost a month of the benefit of that, plus the unaccountable loss of the illusory $10,000.

    To hell with the blood sucking leaches.

  19. So, a torrent of hot air from Morrison and O’Dwyer yesterday, announcing changes to laws and penalties, and a change of ASIC chairman and deputy. But Adele Ferguson and Sarah Danckert are unimpressed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/new-misconduct-laws-need-tough-regulator-experts-say-20180420-p4zaue.html
    ASIC’s record of prosecutions is pathetic. Just 5 new prosecutions commenced last year. A new low.

    What is really needed is legislated, guaranteed, seriously large funding for ASIC, plus a chairman/woman, answerable to parliament, who has KPIs involving prosecutions, large fines and lengthy imprisonment.
    We need legislated protection for whistleblowers, who will be paid a fixed percentage of the money involved in the crime.
    Chances of above happening under current government : nil
    (Well, why would they? O’Dwyer and others will be hoping for board positions after they leave parliament. Hopefully that will be soon).

  20. The criminal sanctions now provided for – imprisonment of bank executives and fines payable by the corporations – just do not work. They are ineffectual, always have been and will remain so.

    It should be possible to sentence the corporations themselves to the financial and legal equivalent of terms of custody. The proprietorial interest in corporations should be subject to detention following criminal conviction. This will sure clean up corporate behaviour.

    Corporations now stand right outside the law. This absolutely should not continue.

  21. DNC hits Trump campaign with multimillion-dollar lawsuit for conspiring with the Russian government

    The Democratic National Committee on Friday filed a multimillion-dollar lawsuit accusing the Trump campaign of colluding with WikiLeaks and the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 presidential election.

    The Washington Post reports that the lawsuit, which was filed in a federal district court in Manhattan, claims that Trump’s campaign encouraged Russia to illegally hack the emails of Democrats, while also conspiring to help Russian agents spread and disseminate the leaked communications.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/dnc-hits-trump-campaign-multimillion-dollar-lawsuit-conspiring-russian-government/

  22. Michael Cohen has a chance for revenge against Trump — after years of being treated ‘like garbage’: report

    &rump attorney Michael Cohen has long been assumed to be fanatically loyal to his boss — but a new report from the New York Times casts doubt on just how loyal Cohen would be if he came under legal pressure.

    Six different sources tell the Times that Trump has been abusive to Cohen for years, despite the fact that Cohen has deep knowledge of the president’s personal and business life.

    “Donald goes out of his way to treat him like garbage,” longtime Trump ally Roger Stone tells the publication.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/michael-cohen-chance-revenge-trump-years-treated-like-garbage-report/

  23. Republican Rick Wilson destroys CNN’s Trump booster Jason Miller for defending the president’s ‘bullsh*t’

    Never-Trump Republican Rick Wilson managed to slip a curse word past CNN’s censors Friday while blasting former Trump campaign adviser Jason Miller over the so-called “pee tape.”

    “You understand if he’s willing to lie about properties and what his dad gave him to get on the Forbes richest list, why should we believe that he’s not — why should people believe he’s not lying about other things?” Baldwin asked.

    Wilson was even more blunt: “They have a tape, Jason.”

    “This is a president who is a known serial congenital liar and fabulist,” the never-Trumper said. “He’s been rated as telling over 2,000 lies in his first year in office. There’s nothing you can take as a ground truth.”

    “Everything is filtered through this bullsh*t prism

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/republican-rick-wilson-destroys-cnns-trump-booster-jason-miller-defending-presidents-bullsht/

  24. The whole subject of emissions reduction, and all the components required to achieve it, is a deeply sensitive issue within the federal Coalition, and Frydenberg has insisted Canberra will unilaterally determine those elements of the policy.

    While welcoming Friday’s progress, Frydenberg made it entirely clear that the Commonwealth would not be budging on the 26% – a figure both the Labor states and many experts argue is entirely inadequate.

    Data released this week on renewables compiled by Green Energy Markets and funded by the progressive activist group GetUp suggests the Neg will deliver no meaningful emissions reductions in its own right because the capacity of renewable projects now under construction already exceeds what is required to achieve the 2030 Neg target.

    The federal energy minister also insisted that any emissions reduction undertaken at the state level would count in the national target. That issue, the relationship between the national target and the state schemes, is a major source of conflict with some state governments.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/20/victoria-demands-new-detailed-analysis-on-neg-after-coag-meeting?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

  25. ArneJJ‏ @Arne_JJ

    Germany is a traditional coal country slowly moving beyond coal. Today the German wind industry employs 5x as many people as the coal industry.

  26. Littleproud seems to have recovered from his bout of revulsion over the sickening deaths.

    Sandra K Eckersley ‏ @SandraEckersley · 24h24 hours ago

    David Littleproud says he needs to ‘wait for the evidence’ that live sheep export needs to be banned. He said Bill Shorten lacks leadership by calling for an immediate ban. QUITE THE OPPOSITE. @The_Nationals are a disgrace. #auspol

  27. lizzie @ #2344 Saturday, April 21st, 2018 – 7:09 am

    Littleproud seems to have recovered from his bout of revulsion over the sickening deaths.

    Sandra K Eckersley ‏ @SandraEckersley · 24h24 hours ago

    David Littleproud says he needs to ‘wait for the evidence’ that live sheep export needs to be banned. He said Bill Shorten lacks leadership by calling for an immediate ban. QUITE THE OPPOSITE. @The_Nationals are a disgrace. #auspol

    The people that care will be on Bill’s side.

  28. Thanks, PhoenixRED for the updates. 🙂

    Sad to see that when Donald Trump does even one thing half right, like North Korea’s initial phase of discussions, support comes back to him. 🙁

  29. Observer, I can understand the BOQ going after the brother’s share of the inheritance, but surely, the other beneficiaries should not suffer any ‘loss’ because of their brother’s behaviours?

  30. Just listening to Kelly O’Bigmouth saying how she was shocked to learn there were people with only 4 days training going out and setting up as financial advisors and dispensing advice to pensioners and the like.
    You know, I thought, like people with 4 days training installing pink batts?

    Pink Banks?

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