BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

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  1. For many years I paid AMP for income protection insurance. The intention was to cover my outgoings in case of illness or incapacity to work. This policy was in place for about 20 years and I paid around $3500 pa for the cover. I was expecting to be able to receive about $5,000/month if my income was disrupted – enough to pay the mortgage and the household bills for a while.

    I must have forked out about $65,000-70,000 for this cover. Then two unfortunate episodes occurred. They overlapped to some extent. First, I was the subject of a series of thefts. These were large enough to wipe out my taxable earnings for the year in which they occurred and in general had a very destructive effect on my life. At about the same time I also became very ill. I experienced a very acute, life-threatening illness that meant I had to stop work entirely for a while. My income was thoroughly disrupted, no question at all.

    Never mind, said my then-wife. We have insurance with AMP. We thought we would be able to get some income to see us through my period of recovery. How wrong we were. The policy did not actually provide for the payment of up to $60k pa. In fact it only provided cover for the income I could show I had lost. Since I had received no income because of the theft, I could not show I had lost anything. AMP refused to pay a single cent. As a result, I was forced to attempt to go back to work before I had recovered – something that had further highly deleterious effects on me and my family.

    Needless to say, even though AMP had refused to pay me under the policy, they continued to try to bill me for income protection insurance and to delay the cancellation of the policy.

    AMP….absolute thieves.

  2. Seriously, this is pathetic adolescent stuff form Morrison and O’Dwyer. To think it was Barnaby who made some sort of minimalist gesture toward failure, admitting to being naive, which is one thing he isn’t. But it was the National’s constituents who had had enough of the bank bullshit and pushed the Nats to get on board with the RC, so he’s talking to his voter base with that slight concession.

  3. bemused says:
    Friday, April 20, 2018 at 10:52 am
    Breaking news on ABC Melbourne…

    The various far left sects have united and will be running candidates in the Victorian State Election, and hope to get some elected in the Upper House.

    They have denounce the Greens and Reason Party as ‘part of the system’.

    Rex will be distraught!

    Will they be called the Nicholas Push?

  4. briefly @ #2255 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    bemused says:
    Friday, April 20, 2018 at 10:52 am
    Breaking news on ABC Melbourne…

    The various far left sects have united and will be running candidates in the Victorian State Election, and hope to get some elected in the Upper House.

    They have denounce the Greens and Reason Party as ‘part of the system’.

    Rex will be distraught!

    Will they be called the Nicholas Push?

    That was on Jon Faine’s program in the Friday Rap where he had Richmond Councillor, Stephen Jolley from one of the far left sects and Georgina Downer, IPA, LNP, dickhead progeny.
    Anyone interested should be able to listen on the ABC website.

  5. briefly @ #2253 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 5:54 pm

    For many years I paid AMP for income protection insurance.

    AMP….absolute thieves.

    I had a related experience, at least in so far as it involved “income protection”. Naive me returned to Aust. in 2011 and got a well paying job which included “super”, and which by default was handed over to the AMP to manage. My mistake was in being too trusting and too busy figuring out how Aust. had changed in the 2 decades I was away to pay attention to the details of the “super”. Fast forward 18 months and I was “let go” as part of cost cutting. Still naive though. Another 12 months and I looked at my “super” to discover AMP had been billing income protection despite being informed that I had ceased employment. This amounted to approx $6K, which they had simply withdrawn from my “super”. Had I not chanced to look they would have continued this practice. Another 6 months and several “communications” later (thank dog I document everything) all was reimbursed.

    Thieves!

  6. Their dreaming and digging deeper –

    AMP is moving to protect its chairman Catherine Brenner from growing calls for her resignation in a submission to the Hayne royal commission expected to shine a light on the actions of general counsel Brian Salter in directing his old law firm Clayton Utz to significantly alter an expert “independent” report provided to the corporate regulator.

    The submission, which began being prepared by AMP’s lawyers King & Wood Mallesons on Friday, follows an emergency board meeting on Thursday afternoon that brought forward the departure of CEO Craig Meller, appointed director Mike Wilkins as interim CEO and ordered a review while Mr Salter – believed to have engaged lawyers Arnold Bloch Leibler – takes leave.

    The legal move comes amid growing calls for Ms Brenner to resign, with senior sources close to the board agreeing with the Australian Shareholders’ Association and broker Bell Potter that her position is untenable. Treasurer Scott Morrison told the AFR Weekend on Friday that boards are the custodians of culture, values and governance.

    http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/banking-royal-commission-amp-rally-behind-chairman-catherine-brenner-20180420-h0z113

  7. New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has said she was “infuriated” and “very angry” by being compared to the US president, Donald Trump.

    In September last year the Wall Street Journal headlined a story: “Meet New Zealand’s Justin Trudeau – except she’s more like Trump on immigration.”

    In an interview with America’s NBC television Ardern said the story was completely off the mark. “That infuriated me, it infuriated me,” she said.

    “We are a party who were at that time campaigning to double our refugee quota. We are a nation built on immigration. I am only a third-generation New Zealander.

    “The suggestion in any way that New Zealand wasn’t an open, outward-facing country – the suggestion that I was leading something that was counter to that value – made me extremely angry.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/18/jacinda-ardern-infuriated-with-comparisons-to-donald-trump?CMP=share_btn_tw

  8. SloMo should be careful what he wishes for.

    Challenging Shorten to reveal his terms of reference would be one.

    If the Tories stare down the critics and make Hayne finish on time before an election a Labor win would, I reckon, see the commission resume.

    One area of investigation I would like to see is contact between the banks and Turnbull, Morrison, O’Dwer and Cormann starting with the time they tried to water down the FOFA legislation.

    It would be great to know who spoke to who, when, about what and what promises were made.

  9. Craig Emerson‏ @DrCraigEmerson · 5h5 hours ago

    Craig Emerson Retweeted Kristina Keneally

    The Government says its highest legislative priority is tax cuts for the biggest corporations (which includes the banks and AMP). Persuading the Senate cross benchers, apart from One Nation, just got harder. Persuading the public got even harder.

  10. lizzie @ #2262 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    “The suggestion in any way that New Zealand wasn’t an open, outward-facing country – the suggestion that I was leading something that was counter to that value – made me extremely angry.”

    As usual, New Zealand is streets ahead of Australia – this time on immigration. They have made immigration contingent on what they can accommodate, not what makes a small minority of spivs the most money.

  11. Coalition Tea Lady
    @ItsBouquet
    AWOOGA! AWOOGA!

    Top end of town exposed as scammers, cheats and rip-off merchants.

    Deploy welfare bashing! … I repeat … Deploy welfare bashing! https://twitter.com/9NewsAUS/status/987115965996503040 …A nationwide crackdown on welfare cheats is set to begin today, as the Government orders hundreds of thousands of scammers to pay up. #9News

    1:51 PM – Apr 20, 2018
    141
    109 people are talking about this

  12. Comment about Truffles’ attire a nice lol from Denis Shanana

    Move over, Justin Trudeau: Jacinda Ardern is No 1

    …..But when it came to official reception with the Queen it was Ms Ardern who outshone even Mr Trudeau…………………..

    The kakahu, especially a kiwi kakahu, is a sign of a person of high rank in Maori culture.

    Malcolm Turnbull wore a dinner suit.

    Ms Ardern also became the toast of Buckingham Palace – literally…..

    http://outline.com/JXn8R3

  13. One area of investigation I would like to see is contact between the banks and Turnbull, Morrison, O’Dwer and Cormann

    Agree, if the RC into trade unions could drag in Shorten & Gillard why not get some Liberal MP’s in.

  14. Then Darren Whereat from ANZ took the stand. He was there to answer questions about two advisers; they failed numerous audits, took years to be suspended, and clients are still waiting to be remediated.

    – In an egregious case, an ANZ adviser put a client into a new super fund with the benefit of saving $240 a year. But it cost her $7,000 in fees, including an ongoing annual service fee of $3,790 for this “advice”.

    – In case of the bad advisers at both Westpac and ANZ, the banks failed to warn other firms of their concerns. All these advisers are still in the advice business.

    The commission returns on Monday.

    http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/banking-royal-commission-day-15-amp-westpac-anz-scott-morrison-20180419-h0z0gs

  15. bemused @ #1915 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    briefly @ #2255 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    bemused says:
    Friday, April 20, 2018 at 10:52 am
    Breaking news on ABC Melbourne…

    The various far left sects have united and will be running candidates in the Victorian State Election, and hope to get some elected in the Upper House.

    They have denounce the Greens and Reason Party as ‘part of the system’.

    Rex will be distraught!

    Will they be called the Nicholas Push?

    That was on Jon Faine’s program in the Friday Rap where he had Richmond Councillor, Stephen Jolley from one of the far left sects and Georgina Downer, IPA, LNP, dickhead progeny.
    Anyone interested should be able to listen on the ABC website.

    Here they are…

    Who are the Victorian Socialists?
    Our political system is broken. The Liberals rule for their corporate mates. Labor is little better, tailing the political right and selling out its working class supporters to big money and developers.

    It’s time for a genuine left alternative.

    In the November 2018 state election, left wingers are uniting as the Victorian Socialists to get Yarra councillor Stephen Jolly elected to the upper house for the Northern Metropolitan Region.

    We are for the poor against the rich, for workers against their bosses, for the powerless against the powerful…. read more – https://www.victoriansocialists.org.au/whoare/

  16. – In an egregious case, an ANZ adviser put a client into a new super fund with the benefit of saving $240 a year. But it cost her $7,000 in fees, including an ongoing annual service fee of $3,790 for this “advice”.

    This happened to me once. Not on such a scale, but I took the advice of a bank I was formerly with in starting up a savings account. I adhered to the rules of at least one deposit per month and no withdrawals but was hit with such significant fees to make one withdrawal, even though I’d had no withdrawals for over a year! And I only dipped into the savings account because it was a genuine emergency.

    No mercy from the bank when I complained. I was told that I’d been provided with the T&Cs and had accepted them by proceeding with opening the account.

  17. Grattan’s article on the ABC site is a reprint from The Conversation.

    I would like to think the Government’s response to the banking RC is finally the jumped shark for the press gallery.

  18. John Reidy

    It may well have jumped the shark for them personally but it is up to the people that pay their salaries to decide if we hear about it.

  19. I wonder if Kelly will continue on her quest to insist that industry funds have independent directors appointed to their boards…. you know to protect the members’ funds!

  20. Perhaps Mr O’Dwyer in mentioning Storm Financial (and how many others failed taking investor funds with them post the Mining Boom Phase 1 between 2004 and 2007, both inclusive and successive gains of over 20% PA in the ASX to 6,800 Points during that 4 year “fool’s gold” period and due to deregulation and a lax Corporate Regulator?) may wish to review and comment on the finding in the matter Local Councils Ors v Grange Securities where that Judgement in favour of Local Councils & Ors says front and centre that fault lay with the Howard government and deregulation which allowed Local Councils & Ors to invest in those sub prime lending securities

    Or Mr O’Dwyer may wish to comment on the failure of HIH?

    In regard banks, Mr O’Dwyer may wish to comment on the Board Members of the Cormack Foundation (the Liberal Party funding entity now in Court proceedings v the Liberal Party and where the Liberal Party has instruction that their encumbered Melbourne CBD Headquarters building sell to fund the Victorian Party’s legal and operational costs) and their CV’s which includes their former positions

    Goode, the former Chair of ANZ is on the Board of Cormack along with former Chairs of media outlets

    I understand from press reports (which have been few and far between) that Cormack has withdrawn funding of the Liberal Party in favour of Right-wing Parties and because of the Kroger/Bastiaan influence

  21. Gorks

    It was said that the terms of reference were written so the Tories could hopefully get the dirt on the industry funds which the banks and the likes of AMP hate.

    It may well be that some of those funds have a skeleton or two buried away but it is hard to believe it could be worse than what we have at seen this week.

  22. The only (and very successful) way I get recourse from companies that rip me off, or I believe should be behaving better is to go straight to their ‘happy corporate citizen Facebook’ page and vent…Jetstar cancels your flight, go to Facebook….expensive appliance breaks down just after warranty runs out, go to Facebook, angry at your bank, go to Facebook etc….don’t waste your time with polite letters or phone calls.
    Sounds harsh, but this is class war going on….

  23. What I don’t understand is why 98 per cent of employees need financial advice. You put your money in an (industry) fund and you chose your setting e.g. 60 per cent shares (which follows the indicies)/40 per cent cash. Then you forget about it for the next 20 years safe in the knowledge you’re not being ripped off. What am I missing.

  24. “wonder if Kelly will continue on her quest to insist that industry funds have independent directors appointed to their boards…. you know to protect the members’ funds!”

    Wellll….. there are likely to be a few of her old mates from the banks looking for new jobs in positions like that over the near future wot??

  25. “t may well be that some of those funds have a skeleton or two buried away but it is hard to believe it could be worse than what we have at seen this week.”

    “Then you forget about it for the next 20 years safe in the knowledge you’re not being ripped off. What am I missing.”

    Missing?? UNIONS….BOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

  26. Anton

    The Prospectus will detail the allocations with “Balanced” Funds allocating from Alternate Securities to Cash – both domestic and globally including un-hedged

    Along with historical performance which is no guarantee of future performance

    There has been a 30% depreciation in the AUD over the last 10 years which has fed into Fund Manager performance

    It is not all about equity markets – or the refunding of tax that was never paid by the Investor in the first instance and why SMSF’s have been marketed by these criminals leading to the growth in the number of SMSF’s

    You can join the dots

  27. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    4h4 hours ago
    This Sunday on #Insiders @barriecassidy interviews Financial Services Minister @KellyODwyer #auspol

    I hope he grills her on why she and her partyroom held out for so long on the RC and why her recent conversion in the wake of these customer experiences makes her look exactly like the craven hypocrite she and her frontbench colleagues are.

  28. Kelly O’Dwyer. Personal life. She is married to Jon Mant(investment banker) and has two sisters, and one brother. Her daughter, Olivia, was born in 2015. On 13 April 2017, O’Dwyer gave birth to her second child Edward, making her the first Cabinet Minister to give birth whilst in office.

  29. Well, if we didn’t know it already, we do now. Big Business can’t be trusted. If you want business to behave with basic honesty and integrity, they have to be regulated into it. With severe penalties if they transgress. Treat them as this Government would if they were on the dole. Unlike the victims of Governments’ failure to produce full employment, they actually are a pack of bludgers.

    No tax cuts for you.

  30. What, Kelly’s husband is a banker? Or is that just rhyming slang? If the former, why is she anywhere near the Finance Ministry.

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