BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 33 of 48
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  3. The Trump Whitehouse can be best described as the House of Lunatics….

    David Gergen
    David Gergen
    @David_Gergen
    ·
    34m
    Trump, reports @CNN, is now acting as his own lawyer, not listening to others. As Lincoln reportedly said, “A man who is his own lawyer has a fool for his client.” Pls join us on @OutFrontCNN

  6. jenauthor says:
    Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 9:29 am
    Rudd!

    Confessions!

    (…. timing how long it takes Bemused’s operant conditioning to force him to erupt with a snarky response …. )

    The only reference to he who must not be named that I can find was from Victoria, not Confessions.

  7. Eric SchneidermanVerified account@AGSchneiderman
    4h4 hours ago
    Long ago, SCOTUS made clear that presidents cannot pardon for state crimes—now it’s time for New York law to do the same.

    No one accused of breaking NY’s laws should escape accountability merely because of a strategically timed presidential pardon.

    :large

  8. bemused

    Yes, it is a matter of degree. However, the ABC is doing this increasingly. There are other avenues they can use to promote programs other than the news services.

    Another tendency in recent years is to make something an issue because they’re doing a program on it. (For example, both leading up to and during and after the ‘War on Waste’ program, the ABC made waste a news story, purely on the basis they were doing a program on waste).

    I’m not sure why you think the ABC is above criticism. I rarely criticise the ABC.

    (These are related statements, because you often seem to decide that someone has ‘form’ on an issue and then attack them on that basis, rather than looking at the substance of their comment. Of course, I realise that in this case, I’ve transgressed by daring to agree with adrian).

  9. Victoria says: Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 9:36 am

    PhoenixRed

    Avenatti and Stormy are playing Trump at his own game. It is a thing of beauty!!

    ***********************************************

    As I said yesterday – Avenatti is running rings around Trumps cheapskate 4th order hacks he has for lawyers

    Bill Palmer reckons Trump saw the sketch that Stormy Daniels had made of her car park assailant – and recognised who it was !!!!! – hence his mad outburst tweets against Daniels/Avenatti

    Bill Palmer : Considering Donald Trump’s nature, it’s not difficult to parse what happened: he recognized the person in the police sketch. We still don’t know who it is, but he sure does. His explosive reaction was because he realized in that moment that the entire thing is going to be exposed, as someone out there will figure out that the sketch is of someone connected to him.

    Is This Guy The Thug Who Threatened Stormy Daniels?

    https://crooksandliars.com/2018/04/guy-thug-who-threatened-stormy-daniels

  10. don

    Jen is just testing for a Pavlovian response – to see if the conjunction of the words “Rudd” and “Confessions” sets bemused off.

  11. Malcolm Farr on the hypocrisy of the LNP with regard to the banking RC. Barnaby changes his tune and O’Dwyer tells absolute lies. (Presumably the O’Dwyer quotes are from the ABC interview this morning?)

    FORMER deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce has made a confession in the wake of “beyond disturbing” revelations of unethical conduct in the banking and finance sector.

    Previously a defender of banks, Mr Joyce has now joined those condemning unacceptable practices revealed before the Royal Commission…

    Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer today acknowledged “very disturbing revelations” and backed a warning from Treasurer Scott Morrison that executives might face jail terms.

    “But it’s fair to say giving the commission broad terms of reference, giving it full autonomy to go after bad misconduct and to look into that right across the financial services sector was absolutely the right thing to do,” Ms O’Dwyer told ABC radio.

    She said Labor had wanted “a very narrow” inquiry and the revelations showed the government had made the right decision.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says it is clear Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull “owes Australians an apology”.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/joyce-admits-he-was-wrong-to-oppose-banking-inquiry/news-story/bf9b47efabfe98265da7a199670e29a6

  12. zoomster says:
    Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 9:49 am
    don

    Jen is just testing for a Pavlovian response – to see if the conjunction of the words “Rudd” and “Confessions” sets bemused off.

    Pavlov is proved right yet again!

  13. As I said, for Sydney listeners, the interview was promoted on the breakfast program with Wendy and Robbie with an appearance by Sales. Then the 7.45 news bulletin promoted it, followed by Sales appearing on AM.

    It all reeks of a bit of desperation to shore up 7.30’s ratings. Plus, they played so many excerpts you hardly need to listen in to the actual interview.

  15. I’m so glad we don’t have pardons in Australia.

    I can not see what legitimate purpose they serve.

    They’re not righting an injustice and practically they are not available to virtually the entire population.

    Worst of all they abdicate responsibility of those in power in being accountable for their own actions.

    There has been a lot of talk about obstruction of justice and how bad a crime that is.

    Surely a pardon is just that, legalised obstruction of justice!!! 🙂

  17. Good Morning

    For anyone that missed it. Watch the NPC Speech by Richard Flanagan yesterday. It was a speech I agree with every word. A rarity indeed.

    The banking industry in serious trouble as is everyone’s retirement funds if not in an industry fund.
    This is very damaging for the LNP.

    You can’t sell your privatised model when its destroying the security of the voters you rely on to govern

  18. Correction: Not yet. After the budget.

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust · 4m4 minutes ago

    Liberal MP @sussanley: I intend to introduce a private members’ bill in the sitting week after the budget is announced that will effectively phase out live sheep exports to the Middle East.

  20. Barney

    Its why I refer to the US system as a Democratic Monarchial system. They kept the Monarch’s power which was always about the self interest of the Monarch. Nothing to do with justice.

  22. zoomster @ #1608 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    bemused

    Yes, it is a matter of degree. However, the ABC is doing this increasingly. There are other avenues they can use to promote programs other than the news services.

    Another tendency in recent years is to make something an issue because they’re doing a program on it. (For example, both leading up to and during and after the ‘War on Waste’ program, the ABC made waste a news story, purely on the basis they were doing a program on waste).

    I’m not sure why you think the ABC is above criticism. I rarely criticise the ABC.

    (These are related statements, because you often seem to decide that someone has ‘form’ on an issue and then attack them on that basis, rather than looking at the substance of their comment. Of course, I realise that in this case, I’ve transgressed by daring to agree with adrian).

    Well I don’t think the ABC is above criticism.
    I do think a lot of criticism is misplaced and I am not referring to yours. E.g. criticism of news presenters when it is pretty obvious they do not prepare what is to be presented.
    There are some on PB who are just mindlessly critical of the ABC relentlessly.
    I would hate to work for the ABC with the current board and senior management. Both appear to be stacked with LNP stooges. Producers and journalists must struggle to present reasonable content without unduly upsetting their masters and mostly manage to do so.

  24. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 10:05 am
    lizzie @ #1614 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 6:59 am

    Breaking: Sussan Ley will introduce a private members’ bill to phase out live sheep exports to the Middle East #auspol
    Why just the Middle East?

    Perhaps “Middle East” is code for “Muslims”. She might be hoping for support from the anti-Muslim branch of the LNP and from Pauline.

  25. The Cohen front is fascinating.
    Both Trump and Hannity have repeatedly said that they have not paid any money to Cohen and Hannity went further to say that he has never had a bill or invoice from Cohen.

    Who is paying for this service from Cohen and what is he getting for this? The list of possibles is long, fill in the gaps yourself.

    The Baffler had a great article on Cohen, worth a read: https://thebaffler.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=25301234b690ac0d7777a70bc&id=98731bd524&e=f41c208373

  30. caf says:
    Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 10:15 am
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-19/calls-to-close-work-for-the-dole/9673238

    I think when Labour gets back in an RC into the work-for-the-dole scheme, with particular attention to the injuries and deaths, might be just the ticket.

    There are enough potential subjects for Labor to call multiple RCs and keep the process going for several years into the future.

    Another great potential for Labor is to dispose of all the LNP/IPA people who have been appointed to government instrumentalities in the last few years.

  34. C@tmomma says: Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 10:15 am

    Jake Tapper and the panel on CNN all agreed that Cohen was the one guy who would go to the mat for Trump.

    ***************************************************************************

    According to the Journal report, Trump sought out legal advice from longtime legal adviser Jay Goldberg, who in turn informed the president that on a scale of 1 to 100, where 100 is fully loyal to the president, Cohen “isn’t even a 1.”

  35. Confessions says: Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 9:44 am

    Eric SchneidermanVerified account@AGSchneiderman
    4h4 hours ago

    Long ago, SCOTUS made clear that presidents cannot pardon for state crimes—now it’s time for New York law to do the same.

    *****************************************************

    Civil Rights Attorney Andrew Laufer :

    Andrew C Laufer, Esq‏ @lauferlaw ·

    I was reflecting on @AGSchneiderman announcement today and the message behind it. IMO the General was throwing the gauntlet down. He was letting this asshole @realDonaldTrump know he’s coming for him hard. Patriots, things are moving. Our Republic stands.

    Pete EVANS‏ @911CORLEBRA777

    Yes, I did so love the Schneiderman’s little foray into ‘Your crimes are State crimes also Donald’ space today. Seems like only yesterday @counterchekist , @LouiseMensch , @20committee and @TrueFactsStated were telling everyone how important the NY AG was going to be in all this

  36. You’ve done nothing Fess … it’s just that every time someone posts about Rudd or you say something he seems to react immediately (as above).

    Was having a joke at Bemused’s expense

  37. Don.

    Was referring to the Barbara Bush comment … and Bemused immediately jumping in to correct Fess for being late to the news.

    Was joking.

  39. rossmcg @ #1631 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 10:23 am

    Bemused

    In 2017 we sent five sheep to Uruguay.

    http://www.livecorp.com.au/LC/files/5a/5ac1a36e-2e87-4098-8249-a62f661187b8.pdf

    We won’t get rich doing that! 😆

    I was entirely unsympathetic to the live trade until I saw a program on the ABC which made the point that many people in Indonesia do not have refrigeration and must buy their meat fresh at the market. So there is an argument for the live trade, but certainly none for the appalling conditions we have seen, or the gratuitous cruelty inflicted on animals.

  40. bemused @ #1576 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 9:02 am

    daretotread. @ #1550 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 7:31 am

    bemused @ #1529 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    Observer @ #1526 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 9:55 pm

    Recycling

    Pratt

    Cartel

    Follow the money trail from Councils paying contractors to collect the waste

    Rate payers have been ripped off time in Memorial and now China paying has come to an end we see the result we see – with Rate payers slugged because those who previously made squillions selling to China have walked away pronto with no responsibility

    Good whilst it lasted for some

    But the pack of cards has fallen over leaving the Rate payers exposed

    I was aghast to discover all our recyclables had been going to China.
    Australia should be responsible for its own waste, recyclable or not.

    On a slightly different tack, we seem to like storing up problems for the future by doing things like burying asbestos. It should be properly disposed of permanently. High temperature incineration is the way to go.
    I found this article interesting. We are sending toxic waste to Germany for incineration.
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/germany-s-booming-incineration-industry-burning-the-world-s-waste-a-467239.html

    Bemused
    You are way off beam on some of this.

    High Temperature incineration (HTI) is certainly NOT the way to go for asbestos, since it is very obviously heat resistant (that is its main purpose). Burying has been pretty well the only option. However there appear to be several brand new technologies for treating asbestos and I would certainly recommend that governments invest in one of these technologies (assuming they do actually work). However the main driver for such treatments are places with nuclear industries where they have radiation contaminated asbebstos. It may be that with our unconamainated asbestos it would not be cost effective to operate in Australia. I do not know but I would certainly recooment it be investigated thoroughly.

    As for that old engineering wonk nut job idea of HTI, I feel like I have been cast back to 1987. Now of course you may be confusing HTI of hazardous wastes with waste to energy projects. Now here in Australia we have in the past and still do I guess used recyclables and recovered wastes as an energy source, but particularly in cement kilns. This has the advantage that it is in fact HTI but the cement mixing process is able to capture and secure many of the hazardous nasties (or neutralise acidic chlorine gases with alkaline cement). Mind you this is theoretical and it has been a while since I checked on the actual performance of our kilns – assuming that any EPA bothered to do air emission monitoring in the last 20 years of deregulation.

    However using HTI for destruction of hazardous wastes such as chlorinated hydrocarbons is a silly idea. Not only is the community implacably opposed, but the emission controls make it expensive.

    What we need urgently to re-establish in Australia is firstly:
    1. A metal smelting industry capable of turning waste iron/steel back into useable steel
    2. Ditto aluminium
    3. A conscious promotion of glass rather than plastic for product supply, so that it becomes feasible to process recycled glass economically. this is of course very easy to do and cost effective – provided you have a market for the glass. I have not had time to check if recycled glass is suitable as food grade, but this seems to be probably a technical issue easily overcome.
    4. Plastics – this is the biggest issue, because while there is a small market for garden seats made from recycled plastics it is still limited. Phasing out plastic in drink containers is the way to go and deposit legislation combined with 2 and 3 above should achieve major reductions. – or an outright BAN on them or some sort of large plastic drink bottle levy.
    5. Paper and cardboard recycling will probably continue although with the decline in newsprint demand perhaps it too is challenged. However while economically it is very wasteful, paper will degrade in the environment, so it is not the environmental hazard of the other items.

    What astonishing ignorance and arrogance.
    Yes, asbestos is an insulating material. So are some plastics. But both can be ‘destroyed’ by high temperature.
    Of course plastic is better recycled and that is what we should do with it.
    Asbestos fibres under high temperature fuse into a solid material that is quite safe as it is the fine fibres that are hazardous.
    High temperature incineration is used to dispose of all sorts of toxic chemicals as the temperature is high enough to break them down.
    A number of years ago a German high temperature incinerator ship, Vulcanus, visited Melbourne and dealt with some highly toxic waste including PCBs.

    Sorry mate but you are the ignorant one. The emerging technique seems to be some form of patented acidification for asbestos which converts it into silicon – no complex vitrification etc. High tem vitriction is expensive and probably not even effective long term.

    Sorry HTI is a ROTTEN technology for genuinely hazardouw wastes. The toxic components that are formed make it a very foolish option, UNLESS you are prepared to invest in super, duper, duper, duper emissions control technology. There are in fact plenty of cheaper and more effective technologies eg the BCD process which while it has it problems does not lead to the uncontrolled air emissions that occur with HTI.

    Jeepus Bemused – you have confirmed my view that you are stuck in 1880.

    The Vulcan visited way back in the 80s and was strongly opposed by every green group in the country and by most EPAs. It was cheap skate technology supported by the corporate environmental vandals that did not want to pay for proper technology or storage. Talk about Deja Vu. The bloody Vulcan. It was the hot topic in Industrial Waste management in 1987. Let us all release our toxic carcinogenic POPs and PAHs etc over the pacific where only a few islanders might be affected, despite the fact that these long lived chemicals travel all around the world in the atmosphere.

    I assume you are aware that the Vulcan was banned because it was seen as an environmental vandal.

    Then they tried to build an HTI in Corowa, NSW. The community outrage had to be seen to be believed. I was THERE at the time and it was the largest community gathering ever to have occurred in that sleepy town I am sure.

    After that they introduced new technologies for the treatment of PCBs. Now I admit to having grave doubts about this technology (and its operators) in some cases, so an argument could be made (but not by anyone else in government or the environment movement as far as I am aware) that it sometimes was less than successful. However since I have read the operating licence of one such,visited the plant, seen pictures of its operations many yeas later and reviewed some data my doubts remain and have done for 20 years. C’est la vie. Nevertheless with careful supervision the process does work and it does not involve the risk of releasing carcinogens into the atmosphere.

    There IS scope for waste to energy from plastics but again you need to high cost of really, really good emissions control technology. ( I mean several different scrubbers plus particulate control). They are successful in Scandinavia, but they DO invest in both emissions control and supervision. I do not think we are good at that.

  45. phoenixRED @ #1594 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 9:34 am

    Stormy Daniels broke the internet when she released a sketch of a man she says sexually assaulted her. The adult film star is currently in a legal battle against President Trump, who she claims sexually assaulted her in 2006 at a golf course.

    In the interview, Avenatti said: “He has no reason to tweet about me or my client while a party in litigation when it comes to making misstatements about his client,” he said. “He has now told the American people that she’s a liar, that she’s a con, and that she has made up this threat and this sketch and I’m outraged by it and there are serious consequences for it.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/stormy-daniels-lawyer-michael-avenatti-says-theyre-considering-defamation-suit-trump-con-job-tweet/

    Rawstory needs to work on their fact-checking.

    1. The sketch is of a man who threatened Daniels (on behalf of Trump), not one who she claims sexually assaulted her.
    2. While there’s no question that Trump has sexually assaulted many women, Daniels hasn’t claimed that her sexual encounter with Trump was anything other than consensual.

  46. daretotread. @ #1640 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 10:32 am

    Out of respect for lizzie I am chopping out all that came before.

    For some chemicals, the only means of disposal is High Temperature Incineration. e.g. PCBs. The alternative is to store them indefinitely and hope they don’t leak.

    I worry about buried asbestos at some later date becoming exposed and spread around. I would much sooner it was converted by high temperature into a harmless glass like substance.

    Yes, you always get a big NIMBY reaction and some of the conservation groups go nuts.

  48. Bemused

    Those five sheep to Uruguay were probably very expensive stud rams.

    I share your view on the live trade.

    In the ideal world no person anywhere would be denied the opportunity to buy meat grown by Australian farmers, processed in Australian abattoirs by Australian workers and exported on Australian-owned ships and planes crewed by Australians.

    But that’s not going to happen so we just have to make the best of the situation, weed out the dodgy operators and enforce sensible animal health regulations on the rest.

    Probably not much will change while Nats are in charge.

  50. “It all reeks of a bit of desperation to shore up 7.30’s ratings” Leigh Sales is doing the job she has been paid handsomely to do by the government – make the ABC unwatchable. 7.30’s national ratings were 900,000+ just a few years ago, now 400,000+

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