After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.
On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:
Do you remember Australia’s first reality TV show, Silvannia Waters? I loved it. Also Housos (???) was gritty real reality TV.
Big Brother the first series was watchable simply for the social experiment it was. The contestants were way more natural simply because they didn’t know how they were being perceived and televised into people’s homes. Subsequent BB series were crap because contestants played up to the audience and didn’t really show authenticity in their reactions like the first BB series did.
lizzie
He, like Truffles, is a lawyer. They are trained to argue for things they do not believe or give a shit about.
My daughter was probably watching the first series of BB, I didn’t watch Sylvania Waters, maybe a few old repeats of Housos. I am not totally against reality tv except it all seems to be crap.
Paul Bongiorno is somewhat pissed off so he tweeted, “It is clear regulators like ASIC for banks and financial services and Dept of Agriculture for live animal exports take their cue not from the law but their ministers.this is reprehensible and UNLAWFUL
citizen @ #1477 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 4:56 pm
Given the relatively high African population of Pearce that really surprises me.
Mr Porter may well be beginning the psychological process of being resigned to his fate at the next election.
grimace
Or he is desperate to improve the ‘gene pool’ of the Wallabies 🙂
@grimace
May I ask what sort of swing is expected against the Coalition in Western Australia? I have heard it is going to be pretty major around 6-7% to Labor statewide. If it is as big of a swing as I have heard, then Chris Porter probably has resigned to his fate.
Puffytmd
Take it up with Boerwar. His rellies started the whole sorry affair of “reality tv’, bustards. Dutch company Philips set up a house and filmed how people used their products. Very commendable market research . But “OH THE HUMANITY” the idea escaped into the wild and the rest is dismal “Reality TV” oxymoronic history 🙁
Taylormade
This demarcation dispute pre-dates the election of Andrews
With the expansion of metropolitan Melbourne we now have the volunteer CFA servicing metropolitan Melbourne
The other side of the river from us is an extension of suburban Melbourne
We are serviced by the MFB which is a full time service
The other side of the river is serviced by the volunteer CFA
This dispute is about demarcation and the retaining of rank by volunteers
The “Save the CFA” Murdoch campaign was shown to be a Liberal Party fundraising body – which says it all
The volunteer CFA do a magnificent job – but the “C” stands for Country
Perhaps a Victorian Bludger could give us a rundown on Firies union boss Peter Marshall
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/promises-were-made-daniel-andrews-made-secret-deal-says-firefighters-union-boss-20180418-p4zae9.html
His name seems to be synonomous with trouble.
Maybe already posted.
Great article from a superb writer.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/18/richard-flanagan-national-press-club-speech-full-politics-black-comedy
rossmcg @ #1510 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 6:42 pm
Is he the one whose tweets Lizzie always posts here? The style is very similar.
Jay @ #1507 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 6:31 pm
At the moment Bludgertrack has the swing in WA at 6.1%. My feel is that Labor can pencil in wins in four of its five targeted seats here, with Stirling being the one that is out of reach.
I’ve been out door knocking for Kim Travers (Labors’ candidate for Pearce) in Ellenbrook a few times in the last couple of months and the response has been very Labor positive.
Pearce has two major and geographically separate metropolitan population centres and two major and separate rural population centres. In Ellenbrook & Aveley which is the southern of the two major metropolitan population centres, the big issue is the Ellenbrook railway line (as it was at the state election). The big issue in Clarkson & Butler at the northern population centre is the extension of the Freeway. Federal Labor has committed to funding both projects, and the Liberals have been silent on the issue.
I don’t know anything about the issues in the regional centres, one of which is very conservative, and the other is ultra-marginal.
If the Liberals don’t match Labors funding commitment then Mr Porter can stick his head between his legs and kiss his arse goodbye.
I remember watching ‘Candid Camera’ when I was quite young – wouldn’t that qualify as reality TV?
Zoomster
Compered by Alan Funt?
@grimace
Why have the liberals been silent on the issues of the railway and extension of the freeway, considering the local member for Pearce is a cabinet minister.
By the way I currently live in the Division of Denison (soon to be called Clark) in Tasmania which is held by the independent Andrew Wilkie. If Andrew Wilike was not representing the seat would be a safe Labor seat.
The electorate is spilt between the City of Glenorchy which is safe Labor and the City of Hobart which is three way between the Greens, Labor and Liberal.
Tasmania is a bit odd since it recently elected a Liberal state government with a primary vote of just over 50%, yet it elected at the last federal election with a Labor two party preferred vote of 57% and won every seat in the state apart from Denison.
BK says:
Alan Funt ! loved the show in glorious black and white. My fave memory of old school ‘Candid Camera’ was a V-Dub Beetle that had been converted into basically a ‘yuuge’ fuel tank. Ya know this was in the olden days because they were pranking a ‘petrol attendant’ ! And ! the attendant was told “fill ‘er up” .
Jay
Big infrastructure announcements are usually the responsibility of the PM and Turnbull just never shows his face in WA.
The count is maybe two visits in about 18 months or so and then for not much more than a day, if that.
I think the infrastructure minister is the nameless DPM and he wouldn’t know his way west of Wagga.
To be honest it is early days with campaigning. Look for some announcements in the budget.
The puppy is trying her hand at gardening. Today she has dug up (and brought into the house) a plant I transplanted this morning, upturned another I bought this afternoon, and carried another potted plant into the house and onto my son’s bed.
I put the transplanted plant into the sink to keep it damp until I could plant it again, and she fished it out and took it to my son’s bed, so I rescued it and put it up higher – so she took the potted plant I’d rescued from my son’s bed previously off the table and returned it to my son’s bed.
None of this bodes well for my planned new garden.
@rossmcg
Thanks for the observations, maybe Western Australia should get some goodies come the budget. Considering the Liberals need to really defend the seats they already have there to win the election or at least form a minority government.
Just on the theme of recycling. There’s a lot of stuff out there that could be made of recycled plastic but where the market hasn’t yet accepted it. For instance shipping pallets. Interesting article this.
https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/may/22/recycling-in-australia-is-dead-in-the-water-three-companies-tackling-our-plastic-addiction
@ Jay
I think that minds are made up about the L/NP and that very little is going to change between now and the election. Labor are aproaching their high water mark in Victoria, NSW & Tasmania, there are no winnable seats either way in SA, leaving WA and Queensland.
The L/NP are staring down the barrel of a catastrope at the next election, and will be looking to save some furniture. A quick look at the winnable seat count demonstrates that the rational choice is to save the furniture in Queensland.
The L/NP will cut WA loose and write off four or five seats and hope that they can save a respectable number of seats in Queensland.
Post the next election, Julie Bishop will quit politics leaving Porter to run for the ultra safe seat of Curtin.
There’s reduce, reuse, recycle. But beyond this it simply has to be acknowledged that some plastics and other carbon bearing materials need further processing.
You can take pretty much anything carbon bearing and subject it to heat in a low oxygen atmosphere and you’ll end up with some combination of carbon, carbon monoxide, hydrogen and hydrocarbons (oils). A lot of this stuff can be readily reused as feed stock for chemical processes or as a replacement for things like asphalt.
I’m actually trying to go one step further and I’m seeking venture capital for a process that will reclaim landfill with no waste or emission. You end up with syngas (CO + H) from which you can resynthesise plastics, transport fuel. Plus you also end up with metals and inert “artificial stone” which you can use for roads and buildings.
A difficult sell in this country unfortunately. So I’m curious to know what you guys think. The vital ingredient is solar power which is now cheap enough to use to directly drive electric arc furnaces.
How much do you want to bet that the Libs think coal mining is still popular enough that they’ll push the NAIF to fund not just the rail line. They’re not increasing the taxpayer’s exposure to 100% for nothing.
zoomster there’s stuff you can spray to make it offensive to dogs. Doesn’t always work, but worth a try.
Recycling
Pratt
Cartel
Follow the money trail from Councils paying contractors to collect the waste
Rate payers have been ripped off time in Memorial and now China paying has come to an end we see the result we see – with Rate payers slugged because those who previously made squillions selling to China have walked away pronto with no responsibility
Good whilst it lasted for some
But the pack of cards has fallen over leaving the Rate payers exposed
Observer @ #1526 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 9:55 pm
I was aghast to discover all our recyclables had been going to China.
Australia should be responsible for its own waste, recyclable or not.
On a slightly different tack, we seem to like storing up problems for the future by doing things like burying asbestos. It should be properly disposed of permanently. High temperature incineration is the way to go.
I found this article interesting. We are sending toxic waste to Germany for incineration.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/germany-s-booming-incineration-industry-burning-the-world-s-waste-a-467239.html
@grimace
Oh cool, thanks for your thoughts, that sounds plausible.
Although I do wonder if Peter Dutton can get re-elected in Dickson although in the event of a comfortable Labor win. If not he would need to find a safer seat on the Sunshine or Gold Coast if he wants to fulfil his ambition to become Liberal leader.
https://www.alternet.org/white-evangelical-support-trump-grows-wake-stormy-daniels-scandal
interesting commentary about the decline of the white evangelical cohort in the US, led by millennial….
Jay @ #1528 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 10:14 pm
Dutton is on a 2.0% margin.
If there is a reasonably uniform swing in Qld, he is well and truly gone. Bludger Track has the swing in Qld at 5.7% currently.
The Libs are on a hiding to nothing with their slash spending and cut taxes agenda:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/18/most-voters-want-turnbull-government-to-tax-more-and-reduce-inequality-poll-finds
Rowe on Turnbull and co being caught out by the Banking Royal Commission.
I suppose it’s pretty hard to punish Folau for suggesting “that gay people” will go to one imaginary place as opposed to another one.
After all, can one be truly to blame when they have been brainwashed by a religion?
Personally his church should be outed and condemned for advocating and promoting such views in its followers.
And Morrison on cue, like Hunt, comes out defending bigotry and even praising Folau for his stand.
How is this stand praise worthy?
Maybe if he had come to his position independently you could argue the point but he came to his position because his church believes such, so in effect he had no choice.
Of course Morrison may hold similar views if that is what his clapping happily brethren believe.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/18/scott-morrison-praises-israel-folaus-strong-character-after-anti-gay-remarks
http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/attacks-on-syria-provided-unsurpassed.html
https://ahvalnews.com/syria/world-powers-show-advanced-weaponry-syrian-war
Interesting take on the recent missile attack in Syria. Lots of missiles used.
Apparently none intercepted according to the US. Syrians claiming 71 out of 105?? Yeah right…….
If they in fact shot off enough SAM’s to get 71 kills then they cant have many more shots in the locker.
Barney:
I love how the marriage equality plebiscite returning a resounding yes has been, and continues to be, such a massive bitter pill for these far-right ‘conservatives’ to swallow. They just don’t get how out of touch and backwards-thinking they are. Just like they don’t get that the spruiking from Old Media isn’t working as well as it used to for them.
Morning all. Like BK and Bongiorno, it is hard not to be disgusted that ASIC and the AFP can let serious corporate crime go unprosecuted, whilst Welfare Force takes people to court for being accidentally overpaid. We should put ASIC in charge of prosecuting beneficiaries who are overpaid and Centrelink in charge of prosecuting banks and CEOs. Then we might see real justice in Australia.
On transport, no doubt there will be infrastructure “goodies” in the budget. But will they be “goodies” for banks, Transurban and big construction companies, or things to benefit commuters? I won’t hold my breath. Labor too must stop going along with the former, however well Bill and the CFMEU did out of Eastlink. We fail to do the basics while wasting all the cash on the big show projects.
Meanwhile, as our cities rapidly grow to being significant size, our transport policy, planning and public transport operations remain far behind OECD best practice. We actually spend more money on infrastructure than the French, Germans and Swiss, but have much worse systems. Does anyone wonder why? This article highlights a few of the policy problems.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/fancy-five-more-hours-of-peak-hour-that-s-where-melbourne-is-heading-expert-warns-20180418-p4zaa0.html
Good morning.
I can see the states backing the NEG, if improved and there is scope to increase emissions reduction, but would any agreement get through the coalition party room unscathed?
I assume a joint party room would consider it rather than just the Liberal party.
From the AFR
However, Mr Frydenberg’s efforts to win over Labor federally and in the states may face internal Coalition resistance.
Liberal MP Craig Kelly, who chairs the Coalition’s backbench energy and environment committee, said he was concerned that the design of the NEG would allow a future Labor government to override targets and legislate for deeper emissions cuts.
“I’m very reluctant over that prospect because one of the arguments for something like this [the NEG] is it creates certainty,” he told The Australian Financial Review.
@Mr Newbie
The Conservative Right have only succeed in getting their way when they can argue that people are going to financially worse off from from the particular policy they oppose. For example; they were successful in preventing any meaningful attempts to reduce carbon emissions, because they generally deny man made climate change. They could not argue people were going to be financially worse off under same sex marriage, hence their attempt to prevent same sex marriage from being legalised failed.
I believe Australians are much more progressive on both social and economic issues than what the media tells us.
imacca @ #1536 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 11:48 pm
Well while the following may well be all rubbish, I think even CIA bots will have to agree that these figures are more believable fakes than those that declare no missiles hit at all.
http://thesaker.is/sitrep-us-missile-attack-on-syria-russian-statistics/
How are these Committee Chairs selected? Are the ones with the most negative view picked? Or do they volunteer where they can ‘fix’ things they disagree with?
I suppose they get nominated and voted for the position in the party room.
John Reidy
Perhaps no one else wants environment – dirty word!
It gives a person a chance to sound more knowledgeable on their ‘special subject’, but in the case of pollies I would have thought they should be prepared for something out of left field.
BB.
Is this enough evidence for you to accept that Russia is a rogue state?
Lizzie, I noticed that sportspeople seem to anticipate the question ‘interviewers’ as ask them and come out with slick answers, that appear to be rehearsed. The interviewers seem to pretend to listen by nodding head etc, but I suspect they are trying to remember the next question to ask.
Last night Confessions suggested the identity of Firies union boss Peter Marshall. Wrong.
This is the profile of @ebatruth who attacks D Andrews for not standing up to Murdoch (Herald Sun) narrative that fireys = villains.
“Cutting through the lies on the CFA and MFB EBAs. Articles at http://medium.com/@ebatruth . UFU rank & file member – views my own.”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Unsurprisingly there is plenty on the banking royal commission.
Former finance professor and Macquarie Bank executive Dr Tony Castagna is behind bars after a Supreme Court jury found him guilty of tax evasion, money laundering and dealing with the proceeds of crime. The way the royal commission is going he might have some mates in with him before too long.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-macquarie-exec-guilty-of-money-laundering-tax-evasion-20180418-p4zaby.html
Now it comes out! The state’s top transport officials were warned to delay the recent timetable changes for Sydney’s stretched rail network until early this year after independent experts found “simply too many underlying issues which have not been fixed”, a high-level report reveals.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/secret-report-warned-top-bureaucrats-to-delay-new-rail-timetable-20180417-p4za20.html
Elizabeth Knight tells us that the new CEO of the CBA will have his work cut out given what we have learned already from the royal commission.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/comyn-will-be-left-with-the-real-trouble-child-in-wealth-family-20180418-p4zacq.html
The Australian’s John Durie writes that the AMP shellacking has served as a giant wake-up call to corporate Australia and indeed the entire regulatory system because something has gone drastically wrong. Big business has been caught systematically ripping off ignorant consumers to maximise profits and, of course, along the way executive pay.
https://www.outline.com/C83XTj
And Ben Butler tells us about the shocker of a day the dissembling Marianne Perkovic of CBA had at the commission. Ant better and she would have been atrocious!
https://outline.com/pwJbqD
One of the most potentially damaging bit s of evidence is the way in which the “independent evaluation” of AMP’s processes by big law firm Clayton Utz was significantly influenced by the board. This should have the big audit firms quaking in their boots. The law firm is not responding to questions.
https://outline.com/5fEbyp
John Collett reminds Morrison of how ASIC missed chance to stop the rot in financial advice 12 years ago.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-missed-chance-to-stop-the-rot-in-financial-advice-12-years-ago-20180418-p4zab4.html
Outrage is growing across party and ideological lines following extraordinary revelations that financial services giant AMP was routinely charging customers fees for no service, and misleading the regulator about it.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/18/amp-royal-commission-universal-outrage/
Jennifer Hewett on the horror day the CBA had at the royal commission.
https://outline.com/7CvAyk
Colin Kruger previews what should be an “interesting” AGM for AMP in three weeks’ time.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/high-stakes-at-the-hyatt-amp-board-to-face-investors-at-agm-20180418-p4zaad.html
This gay Christion has some words of advice for Greg Hunt.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greg-hunt-must-condemn-gay-conversion-therapy-not-protect-it-20180418-p4zabx.html
There’s a big storm brewing between Solomon Lew and Myers.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/behind-the-superficial-calm-between-lew-and-myer-there-s-a-storm-brewing-20180418-p4zach.html
Peter Martin tells us that we are spending too much on infrastructure.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-stop-spending-billions-on-things-we-don-t-really-need-20180418-p4za8x.html
Rob Burgess tells us to blame Canberra as our cities grind to a halt.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/18/immigration-housing-transport-congestions/
Speaking of infrastructure a stinking trainload of human waste from New York City is stranded in a tiny Alabama town, spreading a stench like a giant backed-up toilet – and the “poop train” is just the latest example of the South being used as a dumping ground for other states’ waste.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/it-smells-like-death-tiny-us-town-endures-a-poop-train-20180418-p4zaek.html
Michelle Grattan reports that pressure within government ranks for a ban on the live sheep trade to the Middle East has increased, with a second Liberal MP calling for the exports to end.
https://theconversation.com/ban-middle-east-sheep-trade-says-liberal-mp-jason-wood-95249
Why we can only trust ethical fashion lists so far.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/fashion/why-we-can-only-trust-ethical-fashion-lists-so-far-20180418-p4zaaj.html
Despite the myriad of studies highlighting Australia’s growing inequality, the take-home message from the Turnbull Government is, if you’re poor, it’s your fault.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/elderly-disabled-jobless-or-homeless-the-coalition-is-still-blaming-you,11407
Melbourne drivers could spend 20 per cent more time sitting in traffic unless low-cost solutions were delivered, an expert has warned.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/fancy-five-more-hours-of-peak-hour-that-s-where-melbourne-is-heading-expert-warns-20180418-p4zaa0.html
A former Immigration official sacked over tweets critical of Australia’s asylum seeker policy has won a fight for compensation, after an appeals tribunal found her dismissal was unlawful and described government efforts to restrict anonymous comments from its employees as Orwellian.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/thoughtcrime-immigration-official-sacked-for-tweets-wins-compensation-20180418-p4za8z.html
A former Anglican priest told a young girl she might see her beloved deceased dog if she prayed before he raped her in a church, a court has heard. Words fail me!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/priest-allegedly-told-girl-to-pray-before-he-raped-her-in-church-20180418-p4zada.html
Cartoon Corner
Lots to see in this effort from David Rowe. Like Rowena Orr in the popcorn booth with its clock set at five minutes to midnight.
Matt Golding at the royal commission.
Paul Zanetti takes us into the Greens’ garden.
And Mark Knight takes us into their “party” room.
Sean Leahy pretty well sums up yesterday’s evidence to the royal commission.
Alan Moir with some vitriol for the banks.
David Pope nicely ridicules Turnbull and Morrison over the “unnecessary” banking royal commission.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
More Fairfax cartoons in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-april-19-2018-20180418-h0yy2y.html
bemused @ #1529 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 10:07 pm
Bemused
You are way off beam on some of this.
High Temperature incineration (HTI) is certainly NOT the way to go for asbestos, since it is very obviously heat resistant (that is its main purpose). Burying has been pretty well the only option. However there appear to be several brand new technologies for treating asbestos and I would certainly recommend that governments invest in one of these technologies (assuming they do actually work). However the main driver for such treatments are places with nuclear industries where they have radiation contaminated asbebstos. It may be that with our unconamainated asbestos it would not be cost effective to operate in Australia. I do not know but I would certainly recooment it be investigated thoroughly.
As for that old engineering wonk nut job idea of HTI, I feel like I have been cast back to 1987. Now of course you may be confusing HTI of hazardous wastes with waste to energy projects. Now here in Australia we have in the past and still do I guess used recyclables and recovered wastes as an energy source, but particularly in cement kilns. This has the advantage that it is in fact HTI but the cement mixing process is able to capture and secure many of the hazardous nasties (or neutralise acidic chlorine gases with alkaline cement). Mind you this is theoretical and it has been a while since I checked on the actual performance of our kilns – assuming that any EPA bothered to do air emission monitoring in the last 20 years of deregulation.
However using HTI for destruction of hazardous wastes such as chlorinated hydrocarbons is a silly idea. Not only is the community implacably opposed, but the emission controls make it expensive.
What we need urgently to re-establish in Australia is firstly:
1. A metal smelting industry capable of turning waste iron/steel back into useable steel
2. Ditto aluminium
3. A conscious promotion of glass rather than plastic for product supply, so that it becomes feasible to process recycled glass economically. this is of course very easy to do and cost effective – provided you have a market for the glass. I have not had time to check if recycled glass is suitable as food grade, but this seems to be probably a technical issue easily overcome.
4. Plastics – this is the biggest issue, because while there is a small market for garden seats made from recycled plastics it is still limited. Phasing out plastic in drink containers is the way to go and deposit legislation combined with 2 and 3 above should achieve major reductions. – or an outright BAN on them or some sort of large plastic drink bottle levy.
5. Paper and cardboard recycling will probably continue although with the decline in newsprint demand perhaps it too is challenged. However while economically it is very wasteful, paper will degrade in the environment, so it is not the environmental hazard of the other items.