BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 32 of 48
1 … 31 32 33 … 48

  1. I’ve done ABC interviews where I was told what the topic would be, only to find that that covered the first few questions.

    If you want in depth information about a topic – rather than just a gotcha – it’s fair to give the interviewee some idea about what you’re going to be talking about, but a pollie should be across the issues of the day as well.

  2. BK

    I am seriously worried by Rowe!!!

    That is a brilliant cartoon but!!!!!!!! as he includes – deeply disturbing

    (SMILEY)

  3. zoomster

    About your puppy.
    Looks as if you have a super intelligent dog there who wants to ‘help’ you, and one who thinks your son should be given all the prizes! I had a GSD who used to help me to weed by catching the weeds as I threw them over my shoulder and then delivering them to a weed pile. I’m envious. I’d love another GSD. 🙂

  4. daretotread. says:
    Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 6:47 am
    imacca @ #1536 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 11:48 pm

    http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/attacks-on-syria-provided-unsurpassed.html

    https://ahvalnews.com/syria/world-powers-show-advanced-weaponry-syrian-war

    Interesting take on the recent missile attack in Syria. Lots of missiles used.

    Apparently none intercepted according to the US. Syrians claiming 71 out of 105?? Yeah right…….

    If they in fact shot off enough SAM’s to get 71 kills then they cant have many more shots in the locker.
    Well while the following may well be all rubbish, I think even CIA bots will have to agree that these figures are more believable fakes than those that declare no missiles hit at all.

    Russia lies all the time. They are a psychopathic State. Nothing Russia claims should be accepted a face value. Nothing.

  5. lizzie

    Certainly trying to help – she’s very handy when I’m digging holes!

    I think my son’s bed is just the most comfortable place to dismember items. The other day she covered it with bogong moths.

  7. Kelly O’Dwyer receiving the softest of soft interviews over the Banking RC from Sabra Lane.

    O’Dwyer worked in the banking industry. You’d expect questions around what she knew when she was on the inside.

    This is happening on her watch. You’d think there’d be some questions as to her responsibilities as a Minister.

  8. zoomster

    I think Murphy agrees with you.

    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 6m6 minutes ago

    If it’s up to financial services to explain their actions @KellyODwyer it’s also up to the government to explain why it resisted calls for a banking royal commission @abcnews

  9. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 8m8 minutes ago

    On @abcmelbourne, @KellyODwyer just stated that the #BanksRC “was absolutely the right thing to do”. Recall she fought it tooth and nail. She’s another shonk. #auspol

  10. Behrouz Boochani‏Verified account @BehrouzBoochani · 23h23 hours ago

    About 190 asylum seekers on Manus haven’t been interviewed for US deal. 25 haven’t had their asylum claims processed at all. It’s definitely punishment by Australian immigration department.http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/sky-news-understands-a-further-50-refugees-have-been-interviewed-and-cleared-for-resettlement-in-the-united-states-from-the-offshore-processing-centres-on-manus-island-and-nauru/video/30c3e095075fe7a417a68fa8cb84b697 …

  11. Zoomster, Sabra Lane is really hopeless.

    BTW did Leigh Sales do an interview with James Comey? Only heard it promoted on mornings, news and AM. No need to hear the actual interview now.

  12. lizzie @ #1548 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 5:16 am

    Last night Confessions suggested the identity of Firies union boss Peter Marshall. Wrong.

    This is the profile of @ebatruth who attacks D Andrews for not standing up to Murdoch (Herald Sun) narrative that fireys = villains.

    “Cutting through the lies on the CFA and MFB EBAs. Articles at http://medium.com/@ebatruth . UFU rank & file member – views my own.”

    I merely asked if it was the same person, as the tone of the tweets seem similar to the article’s reporting. I made no suggestions.

  14. adrian

    Leigh Sales interview is being aired tonight.

    Meanwhile, of course, the ABC news and current affairs programs will pad out their offerings by cross promoting her story.

  15. Pretty soon Turnbull et al will be telling us we would have had a banking RC much sooner had Labor not opposed it.

    These people live in an alternative universe.

  16. Thanks BK for the morning roundup including this item.

    Better to know than to live in ignorance, I suppose. Impossible to find anything amusing in this story.

    A former Anglican priest told a young girl she might see her beloved deceased dog if she prayed before he raped her in a church, a court has heard. Words fail me!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/priest-allegedly-told-girl-to-pray-before-he-raped-her-in-church-20180418-p4zada.html

    Like you BK I am unable to say any more about this. ☮

  18. “Michelle Grattan reports that pressure within government ranks for a ban on the live sheep trade to the Middle East has increased, with a second Liberal MP calling for the exports to end.
    https://theconversation.com/ban-middle-east-sheep-trade-says-liberal-mp-jason-wood-95249
    ”
    I remember animals were killed during live animal export/ Brutal slaughtering of animals in Indonesian Abattoirs during Gillard PMship. It was ABC that reported the horror. The Animal Export was banned by Gillard government. All hell broke loose on LNP side. Government was mercilessly attacked for taking away livelihoods of farmers by LNP, Murdoch press and Radio shock jocks. The Gillard Government restored the live export after much criticism. I might have missed it but Why is the MSM not criticising the LNP government now? Was there a discussion of this on PB?

  20. Morning all

    I saw James Comey interview with Stephen Colbert. HE was asked questions about whether there are things he knows about the investigation which the public still don’t know. Comey said yes and that nothing that was relevant to the investigation has appeared in his book. In fact the book only went ahead after approval from authorities that it would not be comprising in any way.

    So my thoughts as to the whole email investigation shemozzle is still in play.

    I notice that Dave is reading the book. I would love his feedback on same at some stage.

  21. PeeBee @ #27625 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 7:13 am

    Lizzie, I noticed that sportspeople seem to anticipate the question ‘interviewers’ as ask them and come out with slick answers, that appear to be rehearsed. The interviewers seem to pretend to listen by nodding head etc, but I suspect they are trying to remember the next question to ask.

    Most interviews are edited. I’ve had one where 10 minutes of carefully parsed answers were reduced to a 10 second one liner. The “noddies” are reverse shots, usually added after the interview itself for brand identification – and to distract from most interviewees lousy on camera delivery.

  22. Ven

    I remember it well. Everything that occurred under the Gillard govt was reported at a fever pitch frenzy. Between the media, Abbott and the fiberals and the pathetic Ruddster, it was a truly disgraceful period of time.
    In reality, it was a very productive govt with a clear agenda.

  23. “Pretty soon Turnbull et al will be telling us we would have had a banking RC much sooner had Labor not opposed it.”

    The Libs will certainly try that line, but too many sound bites and film clips out there of them opposing the idea for that. This could be a serious matter for them on a matter that pissses people right off.

    “Did you trust the Banks? Do you trust Malcolm and Kelly the Bankers Mates??”

  24. Meanwhile Daniel Andrews was in my neck of the woods yesterday and the mayor of Nillumbik who apparently is a Liberal, hijacked the press conference that Daniel Andrews was conducting.
    To give a bit of background our local paper has been reporting on behalf of the residents of Eltham regarding parkland that the Shire of Nillumbik intends to sell off for housing.
    Here is video of spat as appeared on channel 7 news

    https://www.facebook.com/7NewsMelbourne/videos/10156510884779301/

  25. Yes I am well aware that the interview is on tonight Zoomster. How could I not be, such is the over promotion.

    Just a bit of cheap sarcasm on my part.

  26. daretotread. @ #1550 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 7:31 am

    bemused @ #1529 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    Observer @ #1526 Wednesday, April 18th, 2018 – 9:55 pm

    Recycling

    Pratt

    Cartel

    Follow the money trail from Councils paying contractors to collect the waste

    Rate payers have been ripped off time in Memorial and now China paying has come to an end we see the result we see – with Rate payers slugged because those who previously made squillions selling to China have walked away pronto with no responsibility

    Good whilst it lasted for some

    But the pack of cards has fallen over leaving the Rate payers exposed

    I was aghast to discover all our recyclables had been going to China.
    Australia should be responsible for its own waste, recyclable or not.

    On a slightly different tack, we seem to like storing up problems for the future by doing things like burying asbestos. It should be properly disposed of permanently. High temperature incineration is the way to go.
    I found this article interesting. We are sending toxic waste to Germany for incineration.
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/germany-s-booming-incineration-industry-burning-the-world-s-waste-a-467239.html

    Bemused
    You are way off beam on some of this.

    High Temperature incineration (HTI) is certainly NOT the way to go for asbestos, since it is very obviously heat resistant (that is its main purpose). Burying has been pretty well the only option. However there appear to be several brand new technologies for treating asbestos and I would certainly recommend that governments invest in one of these technologies (assuming they do actually work). However the main driver for such treatments are places with nuclear industries where they have radiation contaminated asbebstos. It may be that with our unconamainated asbestos it would not be cost effective to operate in Australia. I do not know but I would certainly recooment it be investigated thoroughly.

    As for that old engineering wonk nut job idea of HTI, I feel like I have been cast back to 1987. Now of course you may be confusing HTI of hazardous wastes with waste to energy projects. Now here in Australia we have in the past and still do I guess used recyclables and recovered wastes as an energy source, but particularly in cement kilns. This has the advantage that it is in fact HTI but the cement mixing process is able to capture and secure many of the hazardous nasties (or neutralise acidic chlorine gases with alkaline cement). Mind you this is theoretical and it has been a while since I checked on the actual performance of our kilns – assuming that any EPA bothered to do air emission monitoring in the last 20 years of deregulation.

    However using HTI for destruction of hazardous wastes such as chlorinated hydrocarbons is a silly idea. Not only is the community implacably opposed, but the emission controls make it expensive.

    What we need urgently to re-establish in Australia is firstly:
    1. A metal smelting industry capable of turning waste iron/steel back into useable steel
    2. Ditto aluminium
    3. A conscious promotion of glass rather than plastic for product supply, so that it becomes feasible to process recycled glass economically. this is of course very easy to do and cost effective – provided you have a market for the glass. I have not had time to check if recycled glass is suitable as food grade, but this seems to be probably a technical issue easily overcome.
    4. Plastics – this is the biggest issue, because while there is a small market for garden seats made from recycled plastics it is still limited. Phasing out plastic in drink containers is the way to go and deposit legislation combined with 2 and 3 above should achieve major reductions. – or an outright BAN on them or some sort of large plastic drink bottle levy.
    5. Paper and cardboard recycling will probably continue although with the decline in newsprint demand perhaps it too is challenged. However while economically it is very wasteful, paper will degrade in the environment, so it is not the environmental hazard of the other items.

    What astonishing ignorance and arrogance.
    Yes, asbestos is an insulating material. So are some plastics. But both can be ‘destroyed’ by high temperature.
    Of course plastic is better recycled and that is what we should do with it.
    Asbestos fibres under high temperature fuse into a solid material that is quite safe as it is the fine fibres that are hazardous.
    High temperature incineration is used to dispose of all sorts of toxic chemicals as the temperature is high enough to break them down.
    A number of years ago a German high temperature incinerator ship, Vulcanus, visited Melbourne and dealt with some highly toxic waste including PCBs.

  28. Spare a thought for the residents of this town in Alabama who have had a train of raw sewage from New York parked there for two months.

    Apparently the governments of Alabama and other southern states offer themselves as dumps for all kinds of waste from elsewhere in the us.

    Parrish, Alabama A stinking trainload of human waste from New York City is stranded in a tiny Alabama town, spreading a stench like a giant backed-up toilet – and the “poop train” is just the latest example of the South being used as a dumping ground for other states’ waste.

    In Parrish, Alabama, population 982, the sludge-hauling train cars have sat idle near the little league fields for more than two months, Mayor Heather Hall said. The smell is unbearable, especially around dusk after the atmosphere has become heated, she said.

    “Oh my goodness, it’s just a nightmare here,” she said. “It smells like rotting corpses, or carcasses. It smells like death.”

    All kinds of waste have been dumped in Georgia, Alabama and other Southern states in recent years, including toxic coal ash from power plants around the nation. In South Carolina, a plan to store radioactive nuclear waste in a rural area prompted complaints that the state was being turned into a nuclear dump.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/it-smells-like-death-tiny-us-town-endures-a-poop-train-20180418-p4zaek.html

  29. A 1993 report on the use of plasma arc torch technology to vitrify chrysotile asbestos, rendering it harmless:

    http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a273894.pdf

    Exposure to asbestos fibers creates a serious risk to public safety and health. The Department of Defense (DoD)
    faces multimillion-dollar rehabilitation costs for asbestos removal and disposal of asbestos-containing materials
    (ACM) from military facilities. Very few landfills are certified to receive ACM, and as these disposal sites are
    filled and closed, ACM disposal costs are expected to rise substantially.
    Plasma arc destruction of ACM could provide an effective, economical, and timely solution to the asbestos
    disposal problem. The high temperatures achievable with plasma arc torch technology can melt and vitrify
    asbestos and ACM into a chemically inert, glasslike residue that may be safely placed in any landfill.
    At plasma torch furnace temperatures above 1,300*C, 25 pounds of pure chrysotile asbestos in metal canisters
    were fed into the furnace over 35 minutes. Furnace residence times varied from 6 to 4i minutes. The vitrified
    asbestos residue, metal canister residue, residues found inside the furnace, and air samples inside and outside
    the process gas stream were tested for asbestos fibers. The amounts found were negligible by EPA standards,
    demonstrating that plasma arc technology can be an environmentally safe, efficient, and effective method of
    destroying and vitrifying pure chrysotile asbestos.

    The process appears to have been commercialised as ‘Geomelt’.

    A report from 2008, and may the fleas of a thousand camels infest the armpits of those who set the pdf so it is not able to be copied without converting to a jpg and then back to a pdf and then the text copied and pasted.

    http://www.wmsym.org/archives/2008/pdfs/8261.pdf

  31. I guess Trump doesn’t remember the interview he gave on television saying exactly that. He should really keep notes to himself.

    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    ·
    10h
    Except you LITERALLY SAID HE WAS.
    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    Slippery James Comey, the worst FBI Director in history, was not fired because of the phony Russia investigation where, by the way, there was NO COLLUSION (except by the Dems)!

  33. Victoria @ #1570 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 8:51 am

    Morning all

    I saw James Comey interview with Stephen Colbert. HE was asked questions about whether there are things he knows about the investigation which the public still don’t know. Comey said yes and that nothing that was relevant to the investigation has appeared in his book. In fact the book only went ahead after approval from authorities that it would not be comprising in any way.

    So my thoughts as to the whole email investigation shemozzle is still in play.

    I notice that Dave is reading the book. I would love his feedback on same at some stage.

    Why don’t you read it yourself? Dave provided a link for it to be downloaded.

  35. Looks like Frydenberg will have a tough time at tomorrow’s Federal/State/Territory meeting on Turnbull’s NEG:

    Labor states ‘won’t compromise’ on renewable targets as energy fight looms

    The Labor states will seek a watertight undertaking that their renewable energy schemes and targets will remain undisturbed by the Turnbull government’s proposed national energy guarantee at a critical meeting on Friday.

    The Victorian energy minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, told Guardian Australia she would work constructively towards achieving a national consensus on energy policy “but we’ve got thresholds – red line issues – that we are not going to compromise on”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/19/labor-states-wont-compromise-on-renewable-targets-as-energy-fight-looms

  37. citizen says:
    Thursday, April 19, 2018 at 9:17 am

    Looks like Frydenberg will have a tough time at tomorrow’s Federal/State/Territory meeting on Turnbull’s NEG:

    Labor states ‘won’t compromise’ on renewable targets as energy fight looms

    This is good news.

  38. The parliament fence ❓ Part of an elaborate containment system that prevents information, ideas and news penetrating to the working parts of the establishment.

    A group of government backbenchers, dreading the thought of an election have banded together.

    The occurrence of various announcements (from the Government front bench) and the renunciation of the same item later that week (or day) has forced the cabal to take the following action.

    **Employ an out of work assassin to take out the entire cabinet in the event of any intelligence being discovered from that quarter.**

    So far all appears to be quiet. The junta are not worried by the random lunatic utterances from time to time of various well coiffed and sartorially elegant luminaries. These outbursts are expected and burst like phosphorus shells (and disappear like a morning mist) onto the massed choirs of journalists eager to distribute these offerings.

    The purported liquidator, whose name remains hidden in a locked safe in a downtown second hand outlet, remains at his post sewing rhinestones on party dresses for the Federal Parliamentary Press Gallery Midwinter Ball.

    And so it goes.

    Big day today. Day release for a couple of hours. ☕

  39. Rudd!

    Confessions!

    (…. timing how long it takes Bemused’s operant conditioning to force him to erupt with a snarky response …. )

    😆

  40. citizen @ #1585 Thursday, April 19th, 2018 – 6:17 am

    Looks like Frydenberg will have a tough time at tomorrow’s Federal/State/Territory meeting on Turnbull’s NEG:

    Labor states ‘won’t compromise’ on renewable targets as energy fight looms

    The Labor states will seek a watertight undertaking that their renewable energy schemes and targets will remain undisturbed by the Turnbull government’s proposed national energy guarantee at a critical meeting on Friday.

    The Victorian energy minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, told Guardian Australia she would work constructively towards achieving a national consensus on energy policy “but we’ve got thresholds – red line issues – that we are not going to compromise on”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/19/labor-states-wont-compromise-on-renewable-targets-as-energy-fight-looms

    The problem here is, anything agreeable to the States is unlikely to have support in the Government’s own Party room.

  41. New York attorney general seeking power to prosecute Trump aides who are pardoned by the president

    The Attorney General of New York is urging state lawmakers to modify state law so prosecutors would be free to charge in local court anyone federally pardoned, The New York Times reported Wednesday.

    “We are disturbed by reports that the president is considering pardons of individuals who may have committed serious federal financial, tax, and other crimes — acts that may also violate New York law,” Eric Schneiderman said in a statement. “We must ensure that if the president, or any president, issues such pardons, we can use the full force of New York’s laws to bring such individuals to justice.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/new-york-attorney-general-seeking-power-prosecute-trump-aides-pardoned-president/

  43. PhoenixRed

    Is this reason why Avenatti tweeted this?

    Michael Avenatti
    @MichaelAvenatti
    Warning: As the walls close and reality sets in that the most damaging witnesses, secrets and evidence are no longer protected, fully expect the following: sheer panic, personal attacks, tirades, and distraction. But none of it will change the outcome in the end… #basta

  44. bemused

    The ABC advertises its programs during breaks.

    Occasionally, yes, something in an interview will be genuine news. No problems.

    However, using the news program to simply cross promote another program is not doing news.

  45. Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti says they’re considering a defamation suit against Trump over his ‘con job’ tweet

    In response to the sketch, Trump tweeted that it was “a total con job.”

    Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

    A sketch years later about a nonexistent man. A total con job, playing the Fake News Media for Fools (but they know it)!

    Stormy Daniels broke the internet when she released a sketch of a man she says sexually assaulted her. The adult film star is currently in a legal battle against President Trump, who she claims sexually assaulted her in 2006 at a golf course.

    In the interview, Avenatti said: “He has no reason to tweet about me or my client while a party in litigation when it comes to making misstatements about his client,” he said. “He has now told the American people that she’s a liar, that she’s a con, and that she has made up this threat and this sketch and I’m outraged by it and there are serious consequences for it.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/stormy-daniels-lawyer-michael-avenatti-says-theyre-considering-defamation-suit-trump-con-job-tweet/

  47. phoenixRed:

    Good stuff!!

    Eric SchneidermanVerified account@AGSchneiderman
    4h4 hours ago
    We are disturbed by reports that @POTUS is considering pardons of individuals who may have committed serious federal crimes—acts that may also violate NY law.

    We must ensure that if any president issues such pardons, we can use NY’s laws to bring such individuals to justice.

    https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/letter_from_ag.pdf

  49. Trump legal adviser warned the president Cohen will flip on him ‘if faced with criminal charges’

    “Longtime legal adviser” for Donald Trump has warned the president his longtime personal attorney, Michael Cohen, will flip on the president “if faced with criminal charges,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

    According to the Journal report, Trump sought out legal advice from Jay Goldberg, who in turn informed the president that on a scale of 1 to 100, where 100 is fully loyal to the president, Cohen “isn’t even a 1.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/trump-legal-adviser-warned-president-cohen-will-flip-faced-criminal-charges/

Comments Page 32 of 48
1 … 31 32 33 … 48

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *