Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. A Former Russian Spy Worked On A Trump Moscow Deal While Trump Was Running For President

    While Trump was running for president, his business team was trying to develop a Trump tower in Moscow — with the help of a former Russian military intelligence officer. But in a twist, that former officer also provided intelligence to the US.

    This connection between Trump and Russian intelligence — made public here for the first time — is known to special counsel Robert Mueller’s team and raises fresh questions about the president’s connections to the Kremlin.

    But there is a twist: The former Russian spy also helped pass intelligence to the United States government on key national security matters, including al-Qaeda’s weapons caches and North Korea’s attempts to develop nuclear weapons

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jasonleopold/donald-trump-russian-spy-moscow-gru-felix-sater?utm_term=.gvAeAQeb#.tpxv6yv4

  5. Strange browser effects.
    I tried my previous entry in Chrome with C+ extension.
    Hit Submit and nothing happened. Then “Load More” and no results. (Twice)
    So I crossed to Safari, logged on, pasted the entry that I had copied and hit “Post Comment” and it worked – no Refresh required.
    Another odd effect in Chrome with C+ is that the first page for a new blog will not refresh with “Load More” – I need to Reload

  6. Cohen was raided not by Mueller but by NY (I think).

    Some useful background on Cohen and the various investigations.
    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/11/17218010/michael-cohen-raid-fbi-trump-mueller-explained

    The Times reports that agents were looking for records about the hush money payments to Daniels and McDougal. The Washington Post reports that Cohen is “under federal investigation for possible bank fraud, wire fraud and campaign finance violations.” Meanwhile, CNN reports that the warrant even targeted Cohen’s documents related to his taxi medallions.

    All this could well be entirely unrelated to the investigation of Russian collusion. On the other hand, if the search should turn up relevant evidence on that front, the Justice Department could turn it over to Mueller’s team. And if Cohen does eventually face charges on unrelated matters, it’s at least possible that he’d flip and offer up incriminating information on Trump as part of a plea deal, should he have any (though he’s emphatically denied that he’d ever do such a thing).

  8. phylactella

    Another odd effect in Chrome with C+ is that the first page for a new blog will not refresh with “Load More” – I need to Reload

    Yes, that’s been an irritation from the beginning: new blog, new technique. If it’s early morning it sometimes takes a few minutes for me to ‘wake up’.

  9. Torture of children in offshore internments and torture of animals on live export transportation – completely acceptable behaviour of Australians.

    *the standards we walk past are the standards we accept*

  10. phylactella @ #1949 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:41 am

    KayJay

    I have read some Saturday Paper stories:
    I open a tab in Chrome on the home page.
    Then I right click on a story, and tap “Open Link in Incognito Window”
    You then agree to reading your one story for the week,
    then close that window and return to the home page for the next.
    I often buy a hard copy, but some weeks limit myself to three pages. Some time ago they allowed you three, then cut it back to one page per issue.
    Richard Ackland is a “must”

    Many thanks. Works fine with my Firefox although I have Chrome available as well.

    I will raise a glass of the finest Ginger Beer (brought to you by Kirks ).

    🍺 Beer mug with Ginger Beer.

  11. Everything happening to Trump is his own fault

    It’s time for Donald Trump to man up and stop casting about for other folks to blame for his troubles. The dire straits in which he finds himself are largely of his own making.

    In connection with Russia’s attempts to throw the election to Trump, it was Trump businesses drawing big bucks from Russian investors and oligarchs and his pro-Russian sympathy that focused attention on his dalliances with the Kremlin.

    Ah, but what should Americans expect from an undisciplined, vindictive and now scared-silly Trump. We should know by now that with self-absorbed Trump, a moment’s thought is a moment wasted.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-fault-dear-trump-is-not-in-your-stars/2018/04/13/aeaa0006-3e91-11e8-a7d1-e4efec6389f0_story.html?utm_term=.f19633db9787

  18. The former CIA director has a message for Donald Trump. I had to google kakistocracy but absolutely agree the use of it in this context.

    John O. BrennanVerified account@JohnBrennan
    10h10 hours ago
    Your kakistocracy is collapsing after its lamentable journey. As the greatest Nation history has known, we have the opportunity to emerge from this nightmare stronger & more committed to ensuring a better life for all Americans, including those you have so tragically deceived.

  19. If Trump’s ego hadn’t got the better of himself, and he hadn’t decided he needed to run the entire country, he’d probably have been safe in his criminal activity. But he couldn’t help but step into the full glare of national limelight.

  23. jenauthor @ #1949 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    DTT

    Mueller’s remit was to investigate Russian collusion and any other crime that emerged in those investigations (you can look up the wording but it was very broad).

    Anything not pertaining directly to his remit that has come up he has been passing to state prosecutors. Cohen was raided not by Mueller but by NY (I think). This is how Mueller is guaranteeing that Trump will go down if guilty — as Trump cannot stop State investigations. Also, the financial dealing appear to be worse than any Russian collusion.

    If people like Comey are even half right — Trump is as corrupt as they come.

    The problem is Jen that Comey is probably pretty smelly too. I certainly think that there would be plenty to find re Trump, but sadly also for many, many others including the Clintons. It seems to me

    There is something deeply rotten in the heart of US society. Corruption is normalised.

    I think it is the whole campaign donations thing. Just too much money needed to win elections, even at the trivial point of electing chief prosecutors and judges etc.

    Step back a second from the loathsomeness of Trump as a business man. is it actually consistent with democracy to go after an elected president. I do NOT think it is. It was utterly wrong what was done to Bill Clinton, and similarly for Trump, whom much as you dislike him was elected under a democratic mandate, according to the rules of the game. You cannot run a democracy like that. It makes people not believe in the primacy or value of the ballot box and greatly weakens the legitimacy of the elected government. Dangerous stuff.

    I might add that I feel EXACTLY the same re the TU Royal Commission and the Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard witchhunts. They were an abrogation of core democratic principles and very, very dangerous long term. Fortunately the damage in Australia has proved minor but a dangerous precedent has been set.

  24. daretotread. @ #1973 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    The problem is Jen that Comey is probably pretty smelly too. I certainly think that there would be plenty to find re Trump, but sadly also for many, many others including the Clintons. It seems to me.

    You really can’t tell the difference between Trump and Comey or Trump and the Clintons?

    That explains a lot.

  25. I’m not one to buy anything like ‘and the Clintons too’, yeah Bill seems to have had a fairly big problem with honouring marriage vows, but otherwise they are two of the most investigated people on the planet and they’d come out clean, and it infuriates me when people equate two totally different things ‘they are all as bad’, it is a fox news type trick that we should be smarter than to use or accept. It breaks down the very standards it is supposed to uphold.

  26. Fair point about Comey, he is very much a doubtful character, not because everyone does, but because he swung an election with selectively disclosing the unimportant and not disclosing the important

  28. jenauthor @ #1968 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:12 am

    If Trump’s ego hadn’t got the better of himself, and he hadn’t decided he needed to run the entire country, he’d probably have been safe in his criminal activity. But he couldn’t help but step into the full glare of national limelight.

    Jen

    The problem that you have here is that I think that if Trump had not run someone even nuttier may well have. The US was a melting pot of unrequited rage which trump capitalised on, however if Trump had not been the candidate it may well have been someone worse. Indeed I think you can argue a very good case to prove that Carson, Cruz, possibly Rubio and several others were actually nuttier.

    What too many Democrats (and ALPers here) fail to grasp is that Hillary Clinton was deeply unpopular. Just why this was so still puzzles me a little but it is what it is. Now I opposed Hillary because of her hawkishness, but respect her greatly for most of her other efforts on domestic politics. However for the US population the hatred seemed more visceral. Perhaps it is just old fashioned misogyny, but I feel it is more than that. Perhaps she epitomised the whole political “class” and reaped the general public rage. Certainly her progressive stances on women and gays etc energised the crazed religious fundies. Perhaps (and this is sort of related to misogyny) that Hillary epitomised the school teachers who gave D grading in school and there is a deep seated resentment. Perhaps it is a mixture of all of these plus many others that I have not listed.

    Whatever it was Democrats and their friends are fools if they blame it all on “trump”. He is a symptom of the disease not the causative agent.

  29. daretotread. @ #1973 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    Step back a second from the loathsomeness of Trump as a business man. is it actually consistent with democracy to go after an elected president. I do NOT think it is. It was utterly wrong what was done to Bill Clinton, and similarly for Trump, whom much as you dislike him was elected under a democratic mandate, according to the rules of the game. You cannot run a democracy like that. It makes people not believe in the primacy or value of the ballot box and greatly weakens the legitimacy of the elected government. Dangerous stuff.

    To summarize; “Any elected representative should be above the law. Corrupt and illegal conduct? No worries, just sit tight and wait for the next election!”

    Brilliant!

    Or maybe, just perhaps, you need rule of law as a prerequisite for having democracy, and there’s no rule of law if anyone who becomes (kinda, sorta, but not really at all) popular then gets to have X number of years to act with impunity, without proper scrutiny, oversight, or fear of legal consequences.

  30. DTT

    You are correct about corruption here. However the NSW ICAC did do a lot to address that. Its why it got worldwide attention at its effectiveness. Even by the Chinese government which has been on a purge of corruption that started out that way and not as a political tool against enemies that it has been wielded as recently.

    London is the money laundering capital of the world according to reports I have seen the Russians are not the only users of the London finance system.

    Trump is trying to replicate the Russian corrupt model in the US where family is your kleptocracy.

    The difference is that in democracies we the people get to have a real say on corruption and there are real efforts to tackle it.

    Here we have moved forward to having most parties serous about political donations reform. Serious about a Federal ICAC. Serious about government accountability.

    Labor has proven this in government having learnt from the Obeid affair and the damage it did to the Labor party image.

    Long term things are looking better for Australia. I am sure the US will return some real anti corruption stuff when the Democrats get in power. Sure they can’t kill the Military Industrial complex overnight. However at least they try and do something about it.

    Yes even Hillary Clinton was backing President Obama’s cutting of military spending and wanted gun control two things the military industrial complex hates with passion.

  31. poroti (Block)
    Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:11 am
    Comment #1967

    KayJay

    As you offer a fine line of investment grade handy dandy odds and ends and sure fire money making schemes I thought this machine would be perfect for your product range.

    Wonderful. Thank you. Thank You.

    Don’s post yesterday evening concerning a device to pick up facial and bio medical information will be the subject of my next foray into “keep the bastards honest ❓ ”

    (>‿◠)✌

  32. What is a generation? Those who promote the concept define it as a group of people who are roughly the same age and who were influenced by a set of significant events. These experiences supposedly create commonalities, making those in the group more similar to each other and more different from other groups now and from groups of the same age in the past.

    In line with the definition, there is a commonly held perception that people growing up around the same time and in the same place must have some sort of universally shared set of experiences and characteristics. It helps that the idea of generations intuitively makes sense. But the science does not support it. In fact, most of the research findings showing distinct generations are explained by other causes, have serious scientific flaws, or both.

    https://slate.com/technology/2018/04/the-evidence-behind-generations-is-lacking.html

  34. lizzie

    Such a catch 22 – grow crops that don’t need herbicides, and farmers (and Monsanto) are criticised; grow crops that do need herbicides and farmers (and Monsanto) are criticised.

    We can’t farm organically and feed the planet.

  35. WeWantPaul @ #1974 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:18 am

    I’m not one to buy anything like ‘and the Clintons too’, yeah Bill seems to have had a fairly big problem with honouring marriage vows, but otherwise they are two of the most investigated people on the planet and they’d come out clean, and it infuriates me when people equate two totally different things ‘they are all as bad’, it is a fox news type trick that we should be smarter than to use or accept. It breaks down the very standards it is supposed to uphold.

    WWP
    Now I am NOT going to get into all this because firstly I have not studied it in detail and secondly whatever it is it probably is still small bikkies in the US context BUT, there are a number of scandals surrounding the Clintons that have a bit of a smell. The original Whitewater one is a bit sniffy, and much as I hate to say it some of the actions with regards to various females re Bill. More recently the wall St speaker payments, the uranium deal and hideously the Seth Rich case. Now while the claims the Clinton were involved in about 1,755,000 murders (I jest but there are many, many allegations) are utterly nutty, if you sift through them, dismissing all the dross there are a few that leave one with niggling doubts.

  36. There is a fire to the south of us (about 20k away). It’s now about 700 hectares (so it’s not going to go out unless there’s heavy rain) — and we have a severe wind warning, so life might get very interesting.

    Lots of helicopters flying overhead, as the area is so inaccessible that they’re repelling firefighters in.

  37. “Now I am NOT going to get into all this”

    that might have been the better place to stop … now I’m open to the two views on marriage infidelity. You are opposed to it, and you are willing to judge people based on it and you are consistent across private and public, races, religions etc, ie for you it is consistently something you consider a reasonable guide to writing a person off as bad, and you apply it in a consistent way privately and publicly. Or you can take the view it is a private matter, one can never know what goes on in a room between two people and can then never be in a position to judge. You can’t have both. As for discredited conspiracy theories run by desperate and dishonest republicans and Bernie bros, please stop.

  38. a r @ #1978 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:28 am

    daretotread. @ #1973 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    Step back a second from the loathsomeness of Trump as a business man. is it actually consistent with democracy to go after an elected president. I do NOT think it is. It was utterly wrong what was done to Bill Clinton, and similarly for Trump, whom much as you dislike him was elected under a democratic mandate, according to the rules of the game. You cannot run a democracy like that. It makes people not believe in the primacy or value of the ballot box and greatly weakens the legitimacy of the elected government. Dangerous stuff.

    To summarize; “Any elected representative should be above the law. Corrupt and illegal conduct? No worries, just sit tight and wait for the next election!”

    Brilliant!

    Or maybe, just perhaps, you need rule of law as a prerequisite for having democracy, and there’s no rule of law if anyone who becomes (kinda, sorta, but not really at all) popular then gets to have X number of years to act with impunity, without proper scrutiny, oversight, or fear of legal consequences.

    AR
    Interesting point, but I do rather think that there should be some sort of hands off agreement during terms of office. Not quit sure just how it should work but I think that you would agree the Lewinski stuff was an abominable beat up.

    The problem with s saying “rule of law” is that this is in the eye of the beholder, and given that the political class has control over the prosecutors, open to abuse. This seems to particularly the case in the USA, but a little bit true here too. There was for example plently of public evidence that Trump was a sleazy real estate trickster and if there was a fair rule of law operating he could have been investigated any time over the last 50 years.

    In a way what Jen said about him being OK if he had not sought to rule the country was my point. A system that ONLY chases someone because they are in the public eye is NOT a rule of law it is using the law as a witch hunt tool.

  39. WWP

    Its only infidelity if its a monogamous relationship. One of the partners in that marriage is not monogamous and should have been honest about it from the start.

    Thats the starting point. All the private lives public lives stuff comes from the hypocrisy of the dishonest person in that relationship who for various reasons including social expectations is not honest in their own behaviour.

  41. On monarchs: pesticides are only part of the problem —

    ‘ …land conversion of habitat for agriculture, removal of native plants and the use of pesticides, and loss of habitat in Mexico from illegal logging around the monarchs’ overwintering habitat. The new population numbers underscore the need to continue conservation measures to reverse this trend.’

    Climate change may also be a culprit:

    ‘severe late-season storms hit monarch overwintering sites in Mexico, which scientists estimate killed anywhere from 7.4 percent of the population to as much as 50 percent of some of the overwintering colonies. ‘

    It’s very simplistic to blame the decline in the monarch population on herbicides. It is notable that this organisation is more calling for more awareness about the use of them rather than an outright ban.

    http://blog.nwf.org/2017/02/new-numbers-show-monarch-butterfly-populations-still-in-trouble/

  42. DTT you COMPLETELY missed the point of my post (either deliberately or not).

    It had nothing to do with the so-called ‘swamp’ and who is/could have been in power in the US.

    It was a comment on the fact that Trump’s ego decided he needed to be the ‘biggest, best, greatest’ and in the US that is seen as being President.

    He was happily running his ‘business’ (and I use that term for want of a better one) ventures and was protected by his legal wheeling and dealing but no, he chose to step up and put himself under the microscope that is the Presidency. You stand in the stark light of such a position and you are open to complete scrutiny.

    He is THAT stupid.

  44. daretotread. @ #1988 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:43 am

    A system that ONLY chases someone because they are in the public eye is NOT a rule of law it is using the law as a witch hunt tool.

    Or it’s just a system that appreciates that the more official power someone wields the higher the standard they need to be held to. I think it’s entirely right and appropriate for public officials to face scrutiny that’s directly proportional to the rank that they hold.

    President is the highest elected office in the land, and should come with the most, and the most aggressive, scrutiny.

    We’re all better off if people so dirty they have no chance of holding up under scrutiny just don’t run in the first place. 🙂

  45. WeWantPaul @ #1986 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:40 am

    “Now I am NOT going to get into all this”

    that might have been the better place to stop … now I’m open to the two views on marriage infidelity. You are opposed to it, and you are willing to judge people based on it and you are consistent across private and public, races, religions etc, ie for you it is consistently something you consider a reasonable guide to writing a person off as bad, and you apply it in a consistent way privately and publicly. Or you can take the view it is a private matter, one can never know what goes on in a room between two people and can then never be in a position to judge. You can’t have both. As for discredited conspiracy theories run by desperate and dishonest republicans and Bernie bros, please stop.

    Sorry WWP
    Could not comprehend a word of what you wrote. I am not judging anybody and thought I made it clear that the Clintons were probably small bikkies. In other words 95% of the political class in the US are up to some sort of double dealing financial tricks, made necessary by their electoral practices.

    As to the marriage infidelity stuff – you totally misread my post, which given I was deliberately pretty oblique I can understand. I actually loathe all beat ups about sexual matters, and rather admire Hillary for her behaviour during the Lewinski affair. The matters raised are bizarre allegations made my the anti Clinton wack jobs, which you could easily search if you chose. However in amongst about 200 wacky allegations there were 3-4 that has a bit of an uncomfortable feel that if I were Inspector Barnaby or Morse or Nikki from Silent Witness I would be following up on.

  46. zoomster

    I agree that all population declines are multi-factorial. However local extinctions can be caused by a single factor, such as clear felling. The developers of huge machinery have a lot to answer for.

  48. “He is THAT stupid.”

    I agree and that is to America’s advantage, if you had someone as evil and corrupt as Trump, but not as dumb we wouldn’t know about it, and the Australian propagandists would be trumpeting them as heros of freedom. Lets be honest lots of the evil scum that work in Fox / News limited around the world as cheering Trump on, they are that low.

    I realise of course there are some real journos at Fox / News affiliates who need to pay mortgages and feed families, but really it is time for them to make a sacrifice and leave and denounce the organisation or accept that they are really propagandists for evil and key parts of one of the most evil threats to democracy that exists in the west.

  50. lizzie

    I guess my point would be that to frame the fate of the monarch butterfly as being entirely the fault of Monsanto is ‘fake news’. It’s just as dishonest when environmentalists do it as it is when the mining industry (or whatever) does.

    Ultimately, it’s not helpful, because it creates the perception that there are simple fixes – and simple villains – when the issues are far more complex than that.

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