Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 48
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  1. Regarding the casting agency ad, there are exemptions to the racial discrimination laws for such situations. It’s not at all unusual to specify such requirements when casting a role.

  3. a r @ #1993 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:50 am

    daretotread. @ #1988 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:43 am

    A system that ONLY chases someone because they are in the public eye is NOT a rule of law it is using the law as a witch hunt tool.

    Or it’s just a system that appreciates that the more official power someone wields the higher the standard they need to be held to. I think it’s entirely right and appropriate for public officials to face scrutiny that’s directly proportional to the rank that they hold.

    President is the highest elected office in the land, and should come with the most, and the most aggressive, scrutiny.

    AR
    Yes BEFORE the election, but afterwards I am less enthused. It is way, way too easy to manipulate. Forget Trump and think Lewisnki. it was a travesty of US justice and the public thought so by re-electing him.

    Especially in the US, where the President has his finger near the red button, it actually seems to me to be marginally treasonous to so destabilise the POTUS that his/her judgement is impaired. This NOT an easy call but in the US with time limited terms I think it is reasonable to hold off on all inquires for the period of the term, or at least limited the scope of those that could be made. Murder. rape and child abuse may qualify but other offences not so much INCLUDING financial ones.

    In our system of government it is less critical and you could have a wider scope for investigations but probably some clear time limits, for example the thirty year old Gillard stuff should be out of the picture.

  5. “Ultimately, it’s not helpful, because it creates the perception that there are simple fixes – and simple villains – when the issues are far more complex than that.”

    Dealing with complexity is one of our biggest challenges, because just like good guys can use complexity bad guys and mislead / confuse with it, so one of the natural responses on both sides is to try and frame a simple convincing explanation, and of course you always run the risk of oversimplifying or being accused of being misleading no matter how good and how likely your simplification is.

    The bad guys don’t want us to have a way to win. I read the BCA submission on their own dodgy meaningless promise to the senate, and omg is it hard to beat those guys on any field.

  9. Apologies for being so late with the cartoons, and also for not finding many.

    Cartoon corner

    Matt Golding on Channel 9 losing the cricket.

    David Rowe on keeping peace in the Middle East
    https://mobile.twitter.com/roweafr/status/984692063236009984/photo/1

    Mark Knight thinks Turnbull is in a bit of trouble

    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7656c66b4f01e86d6380e0636419760c?width=1024

    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0737e3676a640ad391b7f660c74c77e2?width=1024

    David Pope on live exports
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/b16bd47a95cbb9f78e0220bafd07d18f83f8da1d

  11. zoomster

    Monarch butterflies declined 90% in the last 20 years. And a key culprit is the massive increase in the use of #glyphosate.

    A “key culprit”, not the whole.
    It’s not ‘fake news’ as much as a plea for attention.
    Look at the problem with plastics. People need to be shocked before they change their behaviour.

  15. lizzie

    The key culprit seems to be land clearing.

    Not having a go at you, but it is arguable that use of herbicides increases crop yields and thus decreases the need for land clearing.

  18. “The perception that the president may have ordered these strikes at least in part because of a domestic scandal will impact the … effectiveness of these strikes, unavoidably”: Rachel @Maddow. @MSNBC #Syria

  19. “These strikes will play to Trump etc base, the strong man gettuing it done”

    Only the really dumb ones, just last week the same criminal clown said he was leaving entirely, smarter people suggest that was probably a green light to the chemical attacks in the first place.

  21. …and I suppose that’s part of my point.

    Say you’re a committed environmentalist. Someone tells you that a key culprit in monarch butterfly decline is the use of herbicides, and the way to tackle the use of herbicides is to pressure Monsanto.

    You put all your time and effort into this campaign and successfully have the use of herbicides banned.

    It doesn’t help the monarchs at all, because you haven’t paid any attention to the issue of land clearing, and the habitat they need for over wintering has meanwhile been completely destroyed.

    If you’d put your efforts into habitat protection (including awareness about the impact of herbicide use) you’d have had more success.

    The author of that tweet is connecting the fate of the monarchs with Monsanto not to raise awareness of the fate of the monarchs but to attack Monsanto, because their main interest is not the monarchs but attacking Monsanto – that’s the bit that makes it ‘fake news’.

  23. zoomster

    It’s OK, the subject is far too complicated to solve in a couple of sentences. Problem is, we can’t turn the clock back.

    Land clearing is part of the new sterile environment that’s so fashionable. No germs (“dettol it”), no ‘weeds’ (no pollinators – never mind, we’ll clone the plants).

    Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring” was written in another world!!

  24. Malcolm NanceVerified account@MalcolmNance
    6m6 minutes ago
    As Trump announces strikes on #Syria expect a Kremlin response about his relationships with Russia

    Malcolm NanceVerified account@MalcolmNance
    5m5 minutes ago
    #SyriaStrikes come as McClatchy reports on #MichaelCohen visit to Prague to meet with Russians

  31. KayJay (Block)
    Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:17 am
    Comment #1933

    Thanks Lizzie – lots to get through.

    I cannot yet read some of the Saturday Paper stories, (Outline is currently down for maintenance. Sorry for the inconvenience!) Any clever ideas please.

    I use the Firefox browser with a couple of Addons.

    Open a private browser from your already open tab. Press ctrl-shift-p

  33. WWP

    …smarter people suggest that was probably a green light to the chemical attacks in the first place.,,

    Or not so smart as the case may be.

    Quiz time

    1) You are on the brink of winning a 7 year war, the Americans are leaving . Do you
    a) Finish mopping up. Celebrate
    b) Use chemical weapons , cause the Americans to return, possibly causing the end if your regime .

    2) You are about to lose your last stronghold after a 7 year civil war .Do you
    a) Pack up and leave
    b) Create an incident to try and get your backers involved again

  34. daretotread. @ #1985 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 10:35 am

    Now I am NOT going to get into all this because firstly I have not studied it in detail and secondly whatever it is it probably is still small bikkies in the US context BUT, there are a number of scandals surrounding the Clintons that have a bit of a smell.

    You seem to spend your entire waking life peddling pro-Trump, pro-Putin, pro-Republican, anti -FBI, anti-Clinton, anti-Democrat nonsense here, then when you are challenged you try and claim that you are “NOT going to get into all this” because you have “not studied it in detail”?

    LOL!

    For sheer ridiculousness, I think you have just managed to pass Rex. He had better lift his game!

  35. ‘Even if the tail is not wagging the dog’: Maddow on perception around globe is Trump is bombing Syria as a distraction

    “Point of personal privilege here just for a second,” Maddow said, with a pause. “It is worth considering on a night like tonight that there are national security consequences to having a presidency that is as chaotic as Mr. Trump’s presidency, a presidency that is as consumed by scandal and criminal intrigue as his presidency is.”

    “Even if the tail is not wagging the dog, even if you give the president every benefit of the doubt, even if his calculations about whether to launch this action against Syria tonight was taken with absolutely no regard for what else is going on in the president’s life right now, what else is going on in the president’s life right now, unavoidably creates a real perception around the globe that that may have been part of the motivation both for what he did and particularly for when he did it,” Maddow concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/even-tail-not-wagging-dog-maddow-perception-around-globe-trump-bombing-syria-distraction/

  37. Poroti

    The issue is how will Russia ans Iran respond.

    I am seriously worried now and am going out to add more to my pantry.

    I did watch all of that UK civil defence videa- bloody useful. Contemplating the sand bags!!!!!!

    Mind you here in Aus it is the long term that matters is food supply not so much radiation.

  38. daretotread. @ #2037 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 11:52 am

    Poroti

    The issue is how will Russia ans Iran respond.

    I am seriously worried now and am going out to add more to my pantry.

    I did watch all of that UK civil defence videa- bloody useful. Contemplating the sand bags!!!!!!

    Mind you here in Aus it is the long term that matters is food supply not so much radiation.

    Maybe you should get that old “Duck and cover Video” out to refresh yourself on what to do in a nuclear explosion!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60

  40. I will believe that these strikes are for more than show only when I see reputable reports of meaningful damage done (rather than demolishing some old concrete aircraft hangers).

    Until then it may as well be a fireworks display.

  41. “WWP
    …smarter people suggest that was probably a green light to the chemical attacks in the first place.,,
    Or not so smart as the case may be.
    Quiz time
    1) You are on the brink of winning a 7 year war, the Americans are leaving . Do you
    a) Finish mopping up. Celebrate
    b) Use chemical weapons , cause the Americans to return, possibly causing the end if your regime .
    2) You are about to lose your last stronghold after a 7 year civil war .Do you
    a) Pack up and leave
    b) Create an incident to try and get your backers involved again”

    I’m missing something, on the day that Trump announced abandoning Syria, Putin I understand hosted a summit for regional leaders, US journalists, mainstream, referred to this as a taste of Post-US world order, in that region at least. Obviously thinking of Trump as a consistent or rational actor was an error.

    But between Putin’s nod and Trumps ‘F this we’re leaving’ you can not be surprised Syrian leaders saw it as a green light.

  42. Bert @ #2031 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 11:25 am

    KayJay (Block)
    Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:17 am
    Comment #1933

    Thanks Lizzie – lots to get through.

    I cannot yet read some of the Saturday Paper stories, (Outline is currently down for maintenance. Sorry for the inconvenience!) Any clever ideas please.

    I use the Firefox browser with a couple of Addons.

    Open a private browser from your already open tab. Press ctrl-shift-p

    Jeez mate ❗ Wunderbar ❗ I think I am now set up to manage all of Bks and Lizzie’s morning roundups.

    The drinks are on the management. 😋 🍹

  43. daretotread. says:
    Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 11:05 am
    Syrian attack in PROGRESS

    Yes. So far Russian forces appear not to have tried to disable any US or allied missiles, still less to have retaliated at any launch points. If Russia were to try this, without any doubt whatsoever, the US and its allies will destroy Russian assets and completely disable the Russian capability now deployed in the Mediterranean arena.

    It’s very clear that Russia will not risk all to offer a futile defence of its entirely worthless surrogate, Syria.

    If I were running US policy, I would make sure that Syrian assets located among Russian assets were among the first to be destroyed. Russia absolutely cannot be permitted to use Syrian hardware and personnel as a shield.

    I would probably go further and demand that Russian forces be required to withdraw from Syria entirely. They have no place in the Middle East.

  44. WeWantPaul

    You say “you can not be surprised Syrian leaders saw it as a green light.”.
    .
    So you think the “obvious” answer to the first question for Assad was b) ?

    1) You are on the brink of winning a 7 year war, the Americans are leaving . Do you
    a) Finish mopping up. Celebrate
    b) Use chemical weapons , cause the Americans to return, possibly causing the end if your regime .
    .
    The head choppers in Douma used chemical weapons against the Kurds why would it not be a possibility they would use them again considering the desperate situation they were in ?

    he first target was a science research facility in the greater Damascus area. The second was a storage facility west of Homs they believe held precursor chemicals and sarin. The third was a chemical storage depot and “important command post”.

  45. Britney thinks Malcolm is going globetrotting at just the right time. It’s just a pity that Malcolm hasn’t bought just a one-way ticket.

    PM’s globetrotting trip just the break he needs
    DAVID SPEERS Malcolm Turnbull is escaping domestic pressures next week to strut his stuff with international leaders — and it couldn’t come at a better time. (DT headline)

  46. DTT

    As Bushfire suggested it is all a bit of a show.

    General Dunford. He says three sites have been hit.

    The first target was a science research facility in the greater Damascus area. The second was a storage facility west of Homs they believe held precursor chemicals and sarin. The third was a chemical storage depot and “important command post”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/apr/14/syria-donald-trump-announcement-chemical-attack-live

  47. citizen

    DAVID SPEERS Malcolm Turnbull is escaping domestic pressures next week to strut his stuff with international leaders

    Ah so now we know what was behind that picture of Truffles posted earlier. He was practising his ‘strut’ 😆

  48. poroti says:
    Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 12:27 pm

    The head choppers in Douma used chemical weapons against the Kurds why would it not be a possibility they would use them again considering the desperate situation they were in ?

    If there were even the slightest possibility of this, Russia would not have exercised its veto at the Security Council to prevent an investigation and attribution of responsibility. After all, Russia is supposedly in Syria to help repress the anti-Assad insurgency.

    If ISIS were responsible, Russia would have been the first to denounce the use of chemical weapons and would be requesting joint action against ISIS.

    The uncomfortable reality is…Russia is prepared to use chemical weapons against its adversaries. They signalled this in England. They have done so again in Syria. In doing so they threaten the neighbouring States of Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. They are militarily involved in other theatres, including Afghanistan and Donetsk. They are willing on trouble in the Baltic States and the Balkans.

  50. Syria using chemical weapons would be so dumb and pointless that I really doubt they have done it. Assad isn’t stupid. The first casualty of war is truth.

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