Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Morning all. Thanks Lizzie! A standout job as BK stand-in.

    The catholic church’s tactics in defending their clergy are plain for all to see, once again. Deny, forget and force non-disclosure, then try to destroy the witnesses in court. Really no different to what any profit orientated corporation would do. Somebody should ask these clergy, “who is thy neighbour” during their trials. They seem quite incapable of practisin* the morality they preach. As usual, the hypocrisy in the trial is often more sickening than the defence. Who on earth still treats these people as moral guides? Young people should be warned against them, not educated by them.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/13/adelaide-archbishop-part-of-toxic-cover-up-of-abuse-trial-hears

  4. Also in Wilsons case it seems quite clear that seeking a magistrate hearing without jury is designed to minimise any sentence received, after every possible motion to stay and dismiss has failed. Was more money ever spent on a defence in a magistrates court case?

  6. About that Sydney light rail case! It should get pretty embarrassing for Gladys if the facts are as claimed. But I find the dollar amounts hard to believe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/spanish-builder-claims-state-failed-to-reveal-full-facts-on-light-rail-20180413-p4z9et.html

    One very interesting point: In a $2.1 billion project, the builder has only got $950 million. The rolling stock would be worth about $180 million Euro or $300 million Aus. So where has the other $850 million gone?? Plus Council contributions. As I have said before, this project needs an inquiry.

  7. Victoria, phoenixRed:

    Rick Wilson’s latest

    With few exceptions, congressional Republicans are cowed by this president. They’re accustomed to making excuses for him, and if they were going to stand up to him, they’ve already had plenty of chances. Thursday, via tweet, Trump made no bones about his view that he can jettison Mueller whenever he chooses. So, while anything’s possible, it’s tough to imagine that if Mueller gets fired before he completes his investigation, members of the GOP caucus will come together to take meaningful action that punishes Trump. Nothing they’ve done up to now suggests that they’ve got the requisite backbone.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/04/13/congressional-republicans-are-spineless-theyre-not-going-to-save-mueller/?utm_term=.39e66b5c065a

  8. lizzie says:
    Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 7:08 am
    Going to be a shocking weather day in Victoria today.
    Aveagood weekend, everyone.

    Best to settle in then and watch the womens road race that is on now – 7two. Portland cyclist Shannon Malseed is in with a strong chance after winning the national title in Ballarat earlier in the year.

  9. Fess

    Rick Wilson has been trying to encourage GOP members to stand up to Trump. He wrote an article earlier in the week on McConnell and Ryan stepping up. What does Ryan do instead, announce his retirement. Meanwhile McConnell continues to show complete loyalty to the orange cheeto and his party. The problem for the GOP is that there is no good moment to step up in this case, it is going to go badly for them no matter what now. And of course, the GOP themselves are compromised as far as campaign funds go etc. they are a mess

  10. Meanwhile the rumour mill suggests that Rosenstein will be fired tonight.

    Trump ought to realise that especially where his lawyer Cohen is concerned, the state is pursing him, not Mueller.

  11. Vic:

    CNN reported earlier that Trump pardoning Scooter Libby was likely a signal to those caught up in Mueller’s snare not to cooperate because they’ll be pardoned of any charges.

    Totally obstruction of justice, and ditching Mueller (however that comes about) would also be obstruction of justice.

  12. Lizzie
    Thanks for the dawn patrol.
    The shut down of the AMOC was flagged as a potential threshold event with truly drastic implications.
    Measuring flow rates has been inexact but has improved with seabed arrays. What they have been tending to show is that the flows are not smooth. But a 15% drop is massive.

  13. “Trump ought to realise that especially where his lawyer Cohen is concerned, the state is pursing him, not Mueller.”

    Will be interesting if that is still the case on Monday, with the Congress totally failing to do its job, things are a lot lot worse than they appear.

  14. Fess

    It is right. But as has been reported, the state is involved in some of this imbroglio, and no pardons can be made in those instances.

    I wish they would hurry up already. Things have truly deteriorated. Trump does chaos really well

  15. WWP

    In my naivety, I believed that it would not get to this stage. But it is surely getting to a bad point in this whole imbroglio

  16. Who the hell is Cohen, the Republicans’ go-to guy to clean up when their members can’t keep their trousers zipped?!

    A top GOP fundraiser and prominent backer of President Trump stepped down from his Republican National Committee post Friday after revelations that Trump lawyer Michael Cohen arranged a $1.6 million settlement with a former Playboy model the donor had impregnated.

    Los Angeles-based investor Elliott Broidy, who has been a top fundraiser for Trump and the party, issued a statement Friday acknowledging that he “had a consensual relationship” with the woman, who got pregnant. He said he retained Cohen after the Trump lawyer told Broidy he had been contacted by the woman’s attorney.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawyer-negotiated-16-million-settlement-for-gop-donor-with-playboy-model/2018/04/13/2f051f90-3f3e-11e8-974f-aacd97698cef_story.html?utm_term=.32866d1becf3

  18. Vic:

    Cohen is also on federal charges. In any case, he isn’t cooperating with the investigations, so perhaps he’s had some promises made to him by the president?

  19. “In my naivety, I believed that it would not get to this stage. But it is surely getting to a bad point in this whole imbroglio”

    I am a little bit surprised by just how far the Republicans are willing to go in putting party ahead of country, and how strong their community support remains in doing so.

  20. Finland believes that giving homes to the homeless ‘cures’ homelessness. The interesting thing is that punitive conservative governments such as ours would rather see more ‘undeserving, lazy homeless’ on the streets. Same as their attitude to the unemployed. Very much an Old Testament approach and it’s scary that that these RWNJs may stay in government.

    Sceptics will argue that giving homes to homeless people is a recipe for disaster. Aren’t we just subsidising addiction? Won’t we end up with huge bills when it all goes wrong? Don’t people need an incentive to get their lives back on track and engage in services?

    Actually, no. The evidence from Finland – as well as numerous other pilot schemes across the world – shows the opposite is true. When people are given homes, homelessness is radically reduced, engagement in support services goes up and recovery rates from addiction are comparable to a “treatment first” approach. Even more impressive is that there are overall savings for government, as people’s use of emergency health services and the criminal justice system is lessened.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/12/finland-homelessness-rough-sleepers-britain?CMP=share_btn_tw

  21. Almost all these guys Trump is trying to destroy are republicans, I’d be more worried than the Republican leadership seem if I was one of them. Trump will try to destroy them if they get in his way.

  24. “There is still the rule of law. ”

    I must confess the more I study of US ‘justice’ and almost all of this is pre-Trump, the less and less impressed I am by it. And one aspect I’ve always been sceptical of, their use (overuse it looks like in many ways) of litigation seems less and less over the top and more and more like a reasonably good social justice tool, if only a ‘scraps from the masters’ table’ type tool.

  25. Mr. Trump called Mr. Cohen on Friday to “check in,” according to two people briefed on the call. Depending on what else was discussed, the call could be problematic, as lawyers typically advise their clients against discussing investigations.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/us/politics/lawyers-for-trumps-personal-attorney-set-for-friday-court-appearance.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Surely the last thing Team Trump would want is the president having communications with people facing criminal charges that relate to their time working for him!

  26. ‘So ordered’: Court grants Trump request to intervene in Michael Cohen case

    A federal judge in Manhattan granted President Donald Trump’s request to intervene in the court hearing regarding longtime attorney Michael Cohen, whose offices were raided on Monday.

    Erica Orden, a political reporter for The Wall Street Journal broke the news via Twitter on Friday.

    “The Court GRANTS the application of President Trump to intervene in this proceeding. SO ORDERED,” she tweeted.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/ordered-court-grants-trump-request-intervene-michael-cohen-case/

  27. Trump fears Michael Cohen investigation greater ‘imminent’ threat than Mueller: report

    Longtime Donald Trump lawyer Michael Cohen poses a greater “imminent” threat to the White House than special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigations into Russia interference in the 2016 election and obstruction of justice, The New York Times reported Friday.

    Citing “several” people close to President Trump, the times reports his “advisers have concluded that a wide-ranging corruption investigation in New York poses a greater and more imminent threat to the president than even the special counsel’s investigation.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/trump-fears-michael-cohen-greater-imminent-threat-mueller-report/

  28. Valerie Plame condemns pardon of Scooter Libby

    Because every day is upside-down day in Trump’s America, Trump has pardoned Scooter Libby – convicted for lying obstructing the investigation into who blew Valerie Plame’s cover as a covert CIA operative (punishment for her husband opposing the Iraq war.) Got all that?

    Plame also points out the richness of the irony of Trump’s calling James Comey a liar and leaker when he is about to pardon Scooter Libby who was convicted of – you guessed it – LYING AND LEAKING. And I have not even worked in a reference to the pee tape. Oh, wait. Yes, I did. Just now.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/valerie-plame-condemns-pardon-scooter-libby/

  31. “Trump fears Michael Cohen investigation greater ‘imminent’ threat than Mueller: report”

    Yeah I’ve heard the theory that it is possible that Trump was actually not all that involved in the work his team did with and for the Russians, and he isn’t one to care at all that everyone else will get burned, but that he is very very much involved in a long history of essentially criminal deals that he is very very worried about. Thus his massively stupid overreaction to anything that goes near to his non-election business and his (by his own very poor standards) relative calm in the face of a probe into the corruption of his election as president.

  32. Thus his massively stupid overreaction to anything that goes near to his non-election business

    Plus his aggressive statement that Mueller looking into his business dealings would represent crossing a red line for him.

  33. Thanks Lizzie – lots to get through.

    I cannot yet read some of the Saturday Paper stories, (Outline is currently down for maintenance. Sorry for the inconvenience!) Any clever ideas please.

    I use the Firefox browser with a couple of Addons.

    AFR Paywall Blocker (courtesy of AR)
    and
    Bypass Paywalls – enables The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald among others.

    Wonderful story from
    http://www.afr.com/news/peter-dutton-the-statesman-you-never-knew-20180412-h0ypcl

    A heartwarming story of love, loss and redemption (the mighty ones why used to live on Mount Olympus would have known what I mean – mostly b**ls**t).

    For your (collective) delectation – a quote
    “A colleague said Dutton’s contributions in Cabinet are usually well-considered and wise. “He’s the closest to a statesman we have.” Dominic Lorrimer”.

    Another story – I don’t know what to make of this – not much probably

    http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/hands-off-labor-says-smsf-retiree-20180410-h0yl75

    My friendly Coles delivery person due soon and then hours of phone talk to loved ones in Canberra.

    A very good day to all.

    ☕

  34. I have a friend whose OH sincerely believes (from reading American blogs) that the number of Holocaust victims is exaggerated. “There weren’t that number of Jews in the world.”

    The study found that 11% of US adults and over one-fifth of Millennials (22%) hadn’t heard, or were not sure if they had heard, of the Holocaust.

    While approximately six million Jews were exterminated in the Holocaust, nearly one-third of all Americans (31%) and over four in every 10 Millennials (41%) believed that two million Jews or less were killed during the Holocaust.

    Almost half of US adults (45%) and Millennials (49%) could not name one of the over 40,000 concentration camps and ghettos in Europe during the Holocaust

    http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Survey-exposes-American-ignorance-about-Holocaust-549567

  35. WeWantPaul @ #1930 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:11 am

    “Trump fears Michael Cohen investigation greater ‘imminent’ threat than Mueller: report”

    Yeah I’ve heard the theory that it is possible that Trump was actually not all that involved in the work his team did with and for the Russians, and he isn’t one to care at all that everyone else will get burned, but that he is very very much involved in a long history of essentially criminal deals that he is very very worried about. Thus his massively stupid overreaction to anything that goes near to his non-election business and his (by his own very poor standards) relative calm in the face of a probe into the corruption of his election as president.

    WWP
    One prob;em for the US law makers is that while Mueller’s remit clearly goes to all things relevant to collusion with Russia, it possibly does not extend to personal payments eg to stormy and almost certainly does NOT to tax matters that preceded the election campaign.

    Congress would need to broaden his powers I think.

  36. The Justice Department special counsel has evidence that Donald Trump’s personal lawyer and confidant, Michael Cohen, secretly made a late-summer trip to Prague during the 2016 presidential campaign, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

    Confirmation of the trip would lend credence to a retired British spy’s report that Cohen strategized there with a powerful Kremlin figure about Russian meddling in the U.S. election.

    It would also be one of the most significant developments thus far in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of whether the Trump campaign and the Kremlin worked together to help Trump win the White House. Undercutting Trump’s repeated pronouncements that “there is no evidence of collusion,” it also could ratchet up the stakes if the president tries, as he has intimated he might for months, to order Mueller’s firing.

    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article208870264.html

  37. KayJay

    Apologies. I happen to subscribe to Saturday Paper, but not the NewsCorp ones. Perhaps the Outline ‘inconvenience’ won’t last for a full day.

  38. “Congress would need to broaden his powers I think.”

    Not really, the DoJ should just be referring those matters to other teams, like the Southern District of New York. Currently the DoJ is doing its job. Congress should have long ago stepped in to protect Mueller but of course they are more interested in the Republican cause than they are in the Republic itself.

  39. Good Morning

    Of course Trump fears the Cohen case is more damaging than the Mueller investigation.

    To quote Mr Comey Lordy let there be tapes.

    Also the reason for the ramping up now. Rachel Maddow revealed the delay in Mueller handing down his report has been getting that interview with Trump.

    Apparently without it Mueller is ready to hand his report in very soon. With it some time in May June.

  40. When it comes to sport (and news,”current affairs”,reality tv etc) 7 & 9 have long been in a neck & neck race to the bottom with no end in sight yet.

    I’m happy to lose the 9 commentary team but don’t hold out much hope that the replacements will be any better.

  42. lizzie @ #1937 Saturday, April 14th, 2018 – 9:22 am

    KayJay

    Apologies. I happen to subscribe to Saturday Paper, but not the NewsCorp ones. Perhaps the Outline ‘inconvenience’ won’t last for a full day.

    No problem. I am inspired to have a look at the other papers as well as http://www.abc.net.au/

    You friends OH would probably have a rousing and highly entertaining conversation with my favourite daughters (conspiracies galore ©) husband.

    😎

  43. Paul Ryan’s legacy in a nutshell.

    Politics isn’t physics, but a governing Republican philosophy that sees it as a moral imperative to slash the budgets of social programs that benefit mainly older and working-class white people is bound, sooner or later, to drive a party of mainly older and working-class white people off a cliff. The slow-motion disaster now unfolding in Washington results in no small measure from Mr. Ryan’s puzzling success in persuading Republican elites that they could flourish as the party of free-market, anti-redistributive convictions.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/opinion/paul-ryan-donald-trump-republicans.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  46. Ambassador Wilson drops the F-bomb on MSNBC in epic rant about Trump being ‘dangerous for America’

    Former Ambassador Joe Wilson utilized harsh language during a MSNBC interview with Katy Tur on Friday.

    It was Ambassador Wilson’s first television interview since President Donald Trump pardoned Scooter Libby.

    Libby had been convicted for his role in outing undercover CIA operative Valerie Plame, who is Ambassador Wilson’s wife.

    “I don’t think he actually has a mind,” the ambassador replied. “I think he’s basically very venal.”

    “He is looking to get himself through the next day and put as many f*cking dollars — as many dollars — into his bank account as he possibly can,” Ambassador Wilson concluded. “I think this man is a danger to the United States of America.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/ambassador-wilson-drops-f-bomb-msnbc-epic-rant-trump-dangerous-america/

  48. Joe Williams – TEW‏ @joewilliams_tew · Apr 11

    Spent some time out at the Brewarrina Fish Traps. The oldest, carbon dated man made structure on the planet; older then pyramids, Great Wall of china, stone henge the lot..

    Something for all people to be proud of

    Our ancestors were a clever bunch @IndigenousX

  49. KayJay

    I have read some Saturday Paper stories:
    I open a tab in Chrome on the home page.
    Then I right click on a story, and tap “Open Link in Incognito Window”
    You then agree to reading your one story for the week,
    then close that window and return to the home page for the next.
    I often buy a hard copy, but some weeks limit myself to three pages. Some time ago they allowed you three, then cut it back to one page per issue.
    Richard Ackland is a “must”

  50. DTT

    Mueller’s remit was to investigate Russian collusion and any other crime that emerged in those investigations (you can look up the wording but it was very broad).

    Anything not pertaining directly to his remit that has come up he has been passing to state prosecutors. Cohen was raided not by Mueller but by NY (I think). This is how Mueller is guaranteeing that Trump will go down if guilty — as Trump cannot stop State investigations. Also, the financial dealing appear to be worse than any Russian collusion.

    If people like Comey are even half right — Trump is as corrupt as they come.

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