Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research yet again records a solid lead for Labor on two-party preferred, but finds Malcolm Turnbull moving clear as preferred Liberal leader.

The Guardian, which joins the fun by spruiking the result as the “eightieth straight loss” for the Turnbull government, reports that Labor holds a lead of 53-47 in the latest Essential Research poll, out from 52-48 a fortnight ago. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister unchanged at 41-26 (a growing contrast with the narrow results from Newspoll); a 39% approval rating for Turnbull, down two, and a disapproval rating of 42%, down one; and a 35% approval rating for Bill Shorten, down two, and a disapproval rating of 43%, down one.

A question on preferred Liberal leader finds Turnbull moving clear of Julie Bishop since the last such result in December – he’s up three to 24%, with Bishop down two to 17%. Both are well clear of the more conservative alternatives of Tony Abbott, on 11% (up one) and 3% (down one). Scott Morrison scores only 2%, unchanged on last time. When asked who they would prefer in the absence of Turnbull, 26% opted for Bishop and 16% for Abbott, with Dutton and Morrison both on 5%. Also featured is an occasional question on leaders’ attributes, but I would want to see the raw numbers before drawing any conclusions from them. Those should be with us, along with primary votes, when Essential Research publishes its full report later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The primary votes are Coalition 38%, Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (up one), One Nation 7% (down one).

Also today, courtesy of The Australian, are results from the weekend’s Newspoll which find support for a republic at 50%, down one since last August, with opposition up three to 41%. With the qualification of Prince Charles ascending the throne, support rises to 55%, unchanged since August, while opposition is at 35%, up one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,361 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Tom MinearVerified account@tminear
    49m49 minutes ago

    Exclusive: The federal government is shaping to send in its lawyers to try to rip up a new workplace agreement for MFB firefighters, warning parts of the deal may be unlawful and discriminatory. @theheraldsun #auspol #springst
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/workplace-minister-craig-laundy-intervenes-in-dispute-over-new-metropolitan-fire-brigade-workplace-agreement/news-story/184ab8c0f94b7c06c3a1ff37993d8b22

  2. I would expect the cricket commentators would have an ‘out’ in their contract if Nine was to lose the rights to the cricket.

    I won’t be surprised if most of the team transitions across to Seven.

  3. I won’t be surprised if most of the team will transition across to Seven.

    I think some will but not most.

    Another thought is what happens with all that archival Ch9 footage? Esp when rain delays play – Ch7 doesn’t have decades of old games it can dredge up to replay during those inevitable breaks in play.

  4. I suspect that channel 7 will be well aware of the negative feelings about much of the channel 9 cricket commentary team and will hire very few of them.

    And remember channel 7 is the mob who has brought is the Comm Games which seems to have attracted its share of negative opinion. I wouldn’t know because I watched one event.

    I think it is safe to say that nearly all modern sporting commentary in Australia is crap.

    I am half watching Collingwood fix up Adelaide with the sound off.

  5. Is Pence trying to troll Trump with his visit to the Peru Summit? President Kuczynski resigned a month or so ago under a scandal which saw impeachment proceedings initiated by Peru’s parliament against him last year.

    :large

  6. Rossmcg:

    I haven’t watched any of the Cwlth Games, but chatter from work colleagues indicates a reasonable level of engagement and appreciation of the telecast.

  7. DB Cooper:

    Which of the Ch9 commentators do you think will make the transition?

    For mine Chappell and Lawry will be gone – male, pale and stale. Nicholas is too associated with Ch9 and so I reckon he’ll be dropped. The rest is a toss-up.

  8. The Commonwealth Games coverage has been good, if annoyingly parochial. There is little coverage of other nation’s athletes.

  9. Interesting to see that the Nile-Flint petition for the Second Coming manages to spell Sir John McEwen’s name incorrectly. It also has only 38 signatures to date, including, remarkably: “Coaly McCoalface”, “Donald Trump”, “Malcolm Roberts”, “Bronwyn Bishop”, “Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh”, “Peta Credlin”, “Barnaby Joyce”, “Peter Dutton”, “Pauline Hanson”, “Cory Bernardi”, “Tony Abbott” and “Malcolm Turnbull”.

    Not exactly a groundswell.

  10. Brayshaw brought all his Footy Show wit (!) with him to the cricket commentary. I don’t think he ever commentated on Tests, thankfully.

    The trouble for me with Nine is that the commentators are now shameless cheerleaders for Australia, instead of objective observers.

    Sure, Bill Lawry was an unashamed, parochial Victorian, but he knew how to be objective and critical.

  11. I don’t think he ever commentated on Tests, thankfully.

    No he did do the commentary for Tests. I only ever watch the Tests which is how I recall that.

    Best forgotten!

    I agree re Bill Lawry – in fact I actually prefer Lawry over all the current Ch9 commentators, but I can see his age and history being used against him with that new broom sweeping through the TV broadcast rights. A shame if it happens IMO.

  12. Makes you glad to be alive!

    “I honestly thought these words would never come out of my mouth, but I don’t know whether the current president of the United States was with prostitutes peeing on each other in Moscow in 2013. It’s possible, but I don’t know,” Comey told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/untruthful-slimeball-trump-blasts-comey-as-details-emerge-from-scathing-book/2018/04/13/489ae64a-3eff-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.7155ee054d63

  13. Confessions @ #1868 Friday, April 13th, 2018 – 7:41 pm

    DB Cooper @ #1865 Friday, April 13th, 2018 – 8:30 pm

    Despite what people on left-wing blogs (including myself) might think of it, Nine’s cricket coverage has remained very popular:

    https://mumbrella.com.au/nine-wins-ratings-week-thanks-to-ashes-490393

    I’d love to see audience figures from that year they had that woeful AFL commentator James Brayshaw. He made even the likes of Ian Healy’s commentary sound insightful!

    Interestingly Brayshaw made his name initially as a cricketer for WA and SA.

    I don’t understand peoples liking for Lawry, to me he was always one of the worst commentators. 🙂

  14. “The Commonwealth Games coverage has been good, if annoyingly parochial. There is little coverage of other nation’s athletes.”

    Just like the Olympics, Soccer Wirkd Cup, etc.

  15. Things are definitely going down hill when 3 pages are spent arguing the naming of some obscure train station in Sydney.

    Why not just name it: “Smellin’ o’ Horse Shite”.

    or… “Royal Rand-who-gives-a-flying-fuck-Wick”.

  16. DB Cooper says:
    Friday, April 13, 2018 at 10:30 pm
    Despite what people on left-wing blogs (including myself) might think of it, Nine’s cricket coverage has remained very popular:

    https://mumbrella.com.au/nine-wins-ratings-week-thanks-to-ashes-490393

    I always avoid watching tv, and never at home, but sometimes, as when it is on as background noise at relatives’ places, it is unavoidable, without just going to your room.

    I found that cricket was the least objectionable to pretty much any tv content.

    Nothing happens.

    It is like watching grass grow or paint dry.

    I can read a book or do a crossword puzzle, yet still pretend to take part in the desultory conversation about the cricket by looking up now and then, especially when there is an upsurge in crowd noise, and notice that someone has got out, or similar, and make appropriate noises.

    Other shows can be truly terrible, especially at times like Christmas, when rellie time comes around. Some might say that they are so bad they are good, but that is not my experience.

  17. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Friday, April 13, 2018 at 8:38 pm
    I would have thought this was completely illegal.

    ‘Blatantly racist’ Optus ad seeks ‘Anglo Saxon’ shop assistants

    Telco considers disciplinary action against staff who posted Sydney advertisement

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/13/blatantly-racist-optus-ad-seeks-anglo-saxon-shop-assistants

    No doubt it racist and possibly illegal, but as a consumer I can see where they are coming from.

    I don’t care what race someone is, but when I get on a help line for services like telco, my heart sinks when I realise that the person on the other end has english as a very much second language.

    I have to speak as formally and correctly as I can, and in very short sentences. I have to ask questions with ‘yes’ or ‘no’ as appropriate responses. As for trying to explain difficult and subtle problems with a service, forget it.

    I can remember trying to get my controlled load hot water charge removed, after I changed it to an overnight heat up from off peak power in the wee hours of the morning. I have had solar hot water heating for many years.

    After installing PV panels and having good software to track usage, I realised that I was paying $1.30 (?) a day, just for the privilege of having the service available, then the electricity to heat the water as necessary in rainy weather, at a very slightly cheaper rate than off peak. And since I live in a sunny part of the world, it is only after a few days of rainy weather (I wish!) that the booster cuts in.

    I simply could not get the message through to the english as a second language people on essential energy. I tried twice, took half an hour each time, same result, they said, in broken English:

    Them:
    “Yes, sir, you are on controlled load. ”

    Me:
    But I wish it to be disconnected on your computer. It is already changed on my power board, there is no connection any more to controlled load, my electrician has disconnected it, and installed a simple timer which comes on at one am in the morning.

    Them:
    No, no, no, we have checked, that is what you are on. You are on controlled load.

    Me:
    But I wish that charge to be removed, since I am no longer using that service.

    Them:
    No, no, sir, you must pay for the service, you are on controlled load.

    And so on.

    Third time lucky, I got an Australian voice on the line, and was assured that it would be fixed. I got a refund, and was told that it would be removed.

    It wasn’t, but that is another story, still to be completely resolved after six months of trying. I’ll know with my next bill whether the charge has finally been removed.

  18. Good morning
    It’s hard to see what sort of shape the government can be in to fight an election whenever it is held. Most of its energies are consumed with campaigning against itself and there are no signs that’s about to end anytime soon.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/04/14/life-after-30-malcolm-turnbull/15236280006085
    Has Victoria Police lost control over the behaviour of its members?
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/04/14/royal-commission-police-needed/15236280006090
    This is the reality of this policy: refugees are being starved out. Cutting essential income support, or weaponising food in order to pressure asylum seekers, is a new tactic by Dutton.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/04/14/asylum-seekers-benefits-cut-home-affairs/15236280006087
    In Brisbane-based Dickson, South Africans are the third largest foreign-born group after the English and New Zealanders.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/immigration/2018/04/14/electoral-margins-behind-duttons-south-africans/15236280006093
    Gross underpayment of Australia’s migrant workforce has become institutionalised in a variety of industries, and with the Fair Work Ombudsman under-resourced and unions kept at bay, the government appears unwilling to address the problem.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/economy/2018/04/14/wage-theft-and-migrant-workers/15236280006084
    This is the future of the Liberal Party: split once on climate change, preparing to be split again on race. Peter Dutton is the ugly face of it. (Editorial)
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2018/04/14/hateful-numbers/15236280006086
    Government’s immigration tweak sees overseas Asians out, integrated Kiwis in
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-13/how-dutton-slowed-immigration/9646602
    The verbal confrontation involving four of five permanent members of the Security Council, all of them nuclear armed, has left a feverish sense of expectation for what happens next.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/apr/13/syria-crisis-how-we-got-here-and-where-do-we-go-next
    With the world on tenterhooks the US President has taunted Russia, telegraphing a missile strike
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-13/this-week-was-all-about-flip-flopping,-facebook-and-fbi-raids/9653872
    Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has claimed the suspected chemical attack in the Syria was staged with the help of an unspecified foreign intelligence agency,
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-13/russia-says-syria-chemical-attack-staged/9657314
    Mark Gettleson is third whistleblower to come forward to make claim over EU referendum spending
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/13/vote-leave-campaign-overspent-on-industrial-scale-says-ex-employee-mark-gettleson
    The ex-FBI director sets out his contacts with Donald Trump in detail: from tanning goggles, to the Moscow hotel room, to his mafia vibe
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/apr/13/comey-on-trump-key-points-book-a-higher-loyalty
    A five-storey high depiction of an erect blue penis on a Stockholm apartment building is to be painted over just a week after its unveiling following a storm of complaints from neighbours.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/13/five-storey-blue-penis-causes-uproar-among-stockholm-residents
    Finland has found the answer to homelessness. It couldn’t be simpler
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/12/finland-homelessness-rough-sleepers-britain
    If a couple in Australia wants to act as financial backers for their parents, they will need to earn a combined $115,475 a year, instead of $45,185. A single person who wants to vouch for their parents will need to earn $86,606, rather than $45,185.40.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/13/australia-doubles-financial-requirement-for-families-of-new-migrants
    Australian livestock is still being killed inhumanely outside approved abattoirs seven years after strict supply chain conditions designed to protect animal welfare were introduced.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/13/weak-rules-fail-to-stop-inhumane-slaughter-of-australian-animals-overseas
    The chief executive of Screen Producers Australia, Matthew Deaner, said if the trend continued, the ABC would no longer be the home of Australian stories.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/apr/13/abc-reduces-factual-programming-hours-by-60-since-2014
    Labor’s industrial left has backed maritime union officer Mich-Elle Myers to be the next national president of the ALP, in a further sign that factional war has broken out in Victoria.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/unions-dump-butler-back-one-of-their-own-in-run-for-alp-president-20180413-p4z9ik.html
    A lengthy review of regional education has urged the federal government to offer more incentives for established teachers to do a stint outside the city
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/lure-teachers-to-the-bush-with-extra-cash-and-nice-houses-government-told-20180413-p4z9gh.html
    A draft design of the government’s controversial national energy guarantee has been circulated to energy ministers ahead of critical negotiations next Friday.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/energy-blueprint-hangs-in-the-balance-ahead-of-crucial-talks-20180413-p4z9iu.html
    China has been carefully building its influence across the Pacific. But fault lines are starting to emerge in Vanuatu, with serious ramifications for Australia.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/trouble-in-paradise-20180413-p4z9dj.html
    The internet was awash in a sea of jokes about Zuckerberg, all wide-eyed innocence and big ears with his back-to-school haircut, wearing his “big boy suit”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/is-this-mark-zuckerberg-s-best-defence-20180412-p4z9bx.html
    After Optus was contacted by Fairfax Media on Friday, the job advertisement was removed.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/optus-posts-job-ad-asking-for-anglo-saxon-applicants-20180413-p4z9f8.html
    The biggest cause of water pollution in lakes and waterways is contaminated stormwater run-off from streets, house blocks, development sites, retail and industrial areas. Leaf litter is one of the biggest contaminants, overloading waterways with nutrients, contributing to the blue-green algae outbreaks.
    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/sustainability/the-nearly-100-million-effort-to-clean-up-canberra-s-waterways-20180413-p4z9gc.html
    The extra scrutiny had not necessarily reduced how much a customer could borrow, he said, but it had made the process of getting a home loan more complex.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/tighter-rules-on-home-loans-could-cool-housing-market-20180412-p4z97g.html
    A man suddenly removed from immigration detention in New South Wales has not been heard from since being put on a flight.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/04/13/border-force-deport-man-competently/
    In less than a decade, Geoffrey Gurrumul Yunupingu became Australia’s biggest-selling Indigenous musician.
    https://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/music/geoffrey-gurrumul-yunupingu-s-legacy-why-his-music-didn-t-stop-20180411-p4z8xd.html?et_cid=29123398&et_rid=1925890629&Channel=Email&EmailTypeCode=&LinkName=Other+Read+More&Email_name=Weekend+Insight+-+Melb+April+13&Day_Sent=13042018
    Pattie Boyd was both muse and wife to Clapton, to George Harrison before him and no stranger to drug and booze-fuelled partying. But there was little danger of failing memory for her. She kept a record of the wild years – portraits and reportage style snaps taken with a Polaroid and, later, on a Hasselblad.
    https://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/music/famous-muse-pattie-boyd-says-she-neglected-herself-in-her-rock-star-marriage-20180409-h0yi6e.html?et_cid=29123398&et_rid=1925890629&Channel=Email&EmailTypeCode=&LinkName=Spectrum+Read+More&Email_name=Weekend+Insight+-+Melb+April+13&Day_Sent=13042018

  19. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 12h12 hours ago

    How refreshing to see ABC The Drum giving more airspace to another IPA shill, Daniel Wild, who blames the poor for their own lack of “foresight” and to advocate Airtasker and Uber as the answer to being retrenched. No-one else would give this dangerous dimwit the time of day.

  20. Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus · 9h9 hours ago
    Sally McManus Retweeted Alice Workman

    It’s nearly six months since the police raids on a union office. Since months in hiding for Cash. Still nothing from the Federal Police on their investigation. This stinks so bad

  21. lizzie says: Saturday, April 14, 2018 at 6:16 am

    Good morning

    ************************************

    Fantastic job, Lizzie !!!!!

  22. Having a few computer lock-ups this morning –

    So many Trump stories this morning follow these on Raw Story

    a) Someone scared?’ The internet heaps mockery on Trump’s unhinged Comey ‘slime ball’ rant

    b) Trump appears to have deleted tweet that showed John Kelly face-palming at White House meeting

    c) Here’s why the story about Trump’s alleged ‘love child’ could be devastating to the president

    d ) ‘It’s a matter of when’: Trump confidant warns the president is about to nuke the Justice Department

    e ) The media knew about Trump’s alleged ‘love child’ for months — here’s why they kept it a secret

    f ) ‘LIED! LIED! LIED!’: Trump rage-tweets condemnation after FBI watchdog releases McCabe report

    g ) Trump called Cohen to ‘check in’ on him — and it might make his legal problems even worse

    h ) ‘Pissed, flailing and upset’: White House source warns CNN Trump’s anger is ‘beyond what anyone can imagine’

    i ) Historian tells CNN: ‘Besieged’ Trump must feel like this is ‘the beginning of the end’

    All these and more : https://www.rawstory.com/

  23. Trump Calls Comey ‘Untruthful Slime Ball’ as Book Details Released

    James B. Comey’s searing, tell-all book touched off a forceful attack on the former F.B.I. director’s character by President Trump and his allies on Friday, even as many Democrats struggled with conflicted feelings about the man they blame for Hillary Clinton’s loss in the 2016 election.

    In two early-morning tweets, the president called his former F.B.I. director an “untruthful slime ball” and a proven LEAKER & LIAR.” Mr. Trump said that it was “my great honor to fire” Mr. Comey.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/us/politics/trump-calls-comey-untruthful-slimeball-as-book-details-released.html

  24. Trump Biggest Russia Lie Falls Apart In Comey’s New Book

    President Trump often refuses to even admit that Russia attacked the United States during the 2016 election, let alone acknowledging that they did so to help him.

    In Comey’s new book due to be published next week, the former FBI Director claims that during an intelligence briefing during which the President was told about the attack, he was more interested in spinning it to suggest there had been no impact on the result of the election.

    “‘But you found there was no impact on the result, right?’ The intelligence team said they had done no such analysis.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/13/trump-was-told-there-was-no-intelligence-analysis-that-the-vote-had-not-been-impacted-by-russias-attack.html

  25. How exactly can a union backing a (presumably) Victorian based candidate for the ALP Presidency against a Queensland based candidate for Presidency and a South Australian based candidate for Presidency be a sign of factional unrest in Victoria?

    If it is a snub to Mark Butler, surely Wayne Swan’s nomination was too?

    Of course, if Labor only allowed one person to run for the Party presidency, we’d hear accusations that the party was anti democratic, run like a Soviet dictatorship etc etc.

    And then the article finishes with this downright lie:

    ‘Oppoition Leader Bill Shorten said this week he was considering abandoning his electorate of Maribyrnong for neighbouring Fraser, because it would be a much safer seat.’

    No, he did not. The first part is true (although it is not ‘abandoning’ a seat when you intend to keep representing most of it, you just don’t know what the name of the bit you’re going to run for is) , the second isn’t.

  26. adrian

    I have discovered that the ABC news online is more factual than ABCtv. After all, there are no ‘faces’ hoping to hang on to their positions.

  27. I assume Antony Greens readjusted seat margins have been mentioned already;
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal-redistribution-2018/

    Starting with that and just added the Adjustment (Sophomore surge, retiring MPs) from PB, and the Coalition only have 74 seats, and they need 76 to form government, but they might pick one up from an independent.

    If by some miracle the Coalition get the state swings down to 0%, they still lose majority government.

    I also smoothed the state swings out and added a bias to get them back to 0 (2/3rd PB state swings – 2%), and they even lose minority government. (69 Seats)

    (i could have done something wrong though)

  28. Morning

    Thanks Lizzie

    The wind is going to be an issue for us today.
    Gladly our new fence is finally finished so no chance of it falling over.
    Trees on the other hand…

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