ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. On a previous post i asked how in earth did CA or selectors appoint Warner standin captain of our T20,knowing his previous mistakes,lack of any judgement and sledging history.

    Because he had for quite some time been a model player. People love to throw shit at Warner and he brought a lot on himself with his early behaviour, but he had really stepped up as part of the team’s leadership.

    His work as captain of the t20 side was widely praised. He did a good job and the players were very confident in his leadership.

    Something happened in SA to send him off the edge. We all know what that was. Warner will pay an enormous price for handling it terribly.

  2. My only experience of participating in sport is at school when I couldn’t get out of it. Sledging or anything like it, or for that matter any bad language, wouldn’t have been tolerated.

    Seems like a good rule. They should just shut up and let their bat / boot / racquet / whatever do the talking. Or get sent off. End of problem.

  3. ratsak:

    That good-humoured chatter designed to take one’s mind off the relentless slug of days in the field sounds more like gamesmanship rather than what I’d call sledging. “I’ve seen better batting in the shower” would even make *me* laugh if someone said it to me (being a woman notwithstanding).

    Taking pot shots at a player’s batting or bowling is vastly different than nasty personal comments directed at his or her family, or even health and wellbeing.

  4. Ratsak

    Say that exchange between Marsh and Botham did happen, would this have crossed your line? And who was at fault, Marsh or Botham?

  6. Where are all the outpourings of support for Warner then Ratsak? Where are the comments from Indian, Pakistani, Kiwi and West Indian players about how sorry they feel for poor ole Davie. What’s the matter mate? Have you got a great big David Warner poster on your bed room wall? BTW, I didn’t put the Marsh sledge comment up, somebody else did. I only mocked you in response to it. Sorry, couldn’t resist.

  9. Yeah we all know what happened it’s called ball tampering. He was doing it in the Ashes series too. All that tape on his hand was no incidental thing. He gave Bancroft a tutorial in how to cheat. He’s a grub.

  10. The ball tampering…from all countries……has come about because of the win at any cost attitude of the nations cricket boards. I liken it to Essendon and the drug scandal whose motto was “Whatever it takes” and look how that ended up for all concerned.
    They , the boards of sporting bodies, want the corporate dollar and a winning teams earns more than one that doesn’t. It stopped being a game(s) with ethics a long time ago.
    I have no interest anymore for cricket, a game I played, listened to, and watched with a great love for a long time but the sledging and rampant nationalism that goes with it has turned me off.
    I can love my country without painting myself geen or gold, draping a flag over my shoulders, or wearing a bucket or melon on my head.

  11. Briefly – don’t leave if that’s what you’re saying. I for one (and I am sure many others here) appreciate your posts.

  13. The big problem with cricket is that all the great commentators are no longer with us. We need another Henry Blofeld

  19. Sonar:

    I have to admit, the KFC bucket and melon as the head gear of choice for crowds puzzles me. I’ve never understood it.

  20. Yes a bit of class and appreciation for the game and all players, not just the one’s who play for your country. Channel 9 has a lot to answer for in this respect. BTW, who came up with the four fingers and fist paper mache models behind the presentation stage at the end of the last Ashes series?That’s the sort of thing that needs to be wiped out of cricket, this petty nationalism that Sonar alluded to. Classy or what?

  22. Yes Ratsak, but you did not answer even if it might be hypothetical, you could indicate your opinion.

    To me it could have been good-natured banter between those two. But it is still best to drop the sledging altogether. Despite what you say, “it is just not cricket”, or shouldn’t be. I guess Warner was baiting de Kock about his name, and then he got trumped. Fair enough, too.

  24. Steve777 says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 7:19 pm
    #WeatheronPB: March min & max temperatures in Sydney finished almost spot-on average – for January. The pattern looks set to continue indefinitely. Tomorrow’s max 31-35 degrees.

    We’re feeling the heated atmosphere here in Canberra too. Precious little rain for ages and none on the horizon. Traditionally it turns cold on Anzac day in Canberra, perhaps the weather will instead turn lukewarm.
    #WeatheronPB

    PS Time for one of Murdoch’s hacks to tell us again how we’re headed for an ice age?

  25. Haveachat,

    If Warner did indeed slag off De Kock’s sister then for sure, absolutely out of bounds. That’s just shit stuff.

  26. HaveAChat:

    I’ve no doubt we’re seeing a bit of media PR wars between SA and Aust, but if that story is true then Warner really needs to think before speaking or acting. The SAcans sure chose their target well, probably another reason Warner dissolved in tears yesterday: he knew he’d been played and bested.

  27. It is obvious that some making comment on here have never played the game of cricket – because a batsman is always the subject of comment designed to disrupt concentration

    I retired near 40 years ago after playing for 15 years at Senior level after leaving school

    So I just happen to think I know what I am talking about – and some who “sledged” me remain my closest friends

    We still laugh over incidents – and hang “shit” on each other

    It goes with the territory

    Mind you fast bowlers were pigeon toed with nothing beteeen the ears!

    So there you go

    The question I have tho is who put in the order for the masks the “crowd” had access to – including those photographed with South African cricket officials – and when?

    Were they then sold at the ground or just handed out?

    And who gave authority for their distribution at the ground?

    Bearing in mind Warner’s wife and children were at the ground

    I will make the accusation that the order of the masks and their distribution was a deliberate act by the South African cricket team and their Adninistration to attempt to disrupt Warner and was formulated and put into practice before the Australian team even arrived in South Africa

    Hence the masks being available as they were

    If I was Warner I would have reacted and in a manner which would put Warner’s reaction in the shade

    From there it escalated and South Africa got their desired result of playing against an Australian side absent Warner who is their most damaging batsman

    South Africa have once again bought the game into disrepute

  29. Elite Cricket, like other elite sports, is Big Business, tied in with tribalism, identity, nationalism, pride. But Business and money “trumps” all else. I think everyone bends the rules to near breaking point to gain an advantage, and many break them when they think they can get away with it, in sport, business and politics

  31. Well Lovey, I’ll go with Marsh’s own opinion from the address in that he would never say such a thing.

    Keeping it to those on the field seems to be a pretty sensible line in the sand to me. Going for someone’s family is just shit.

  32. Ven, that article pretty much sums up my attitude towards Australian test cricket. Even a lot of Australians would support the sentiments of it. As I stated previously, my understanding is that the SA version of the Barmy Army had the masks made up.

  33. My only experience of participating in sport is at school when I couldn’t get out of it.

    Steve, that comment, plus the incessant chatter about cricket has provoked me into the following download.

    I was bullied into severe depression in school. I was born mostly blind. I went to schools where bullying was encouraged and condoned by the teachers. It was a world where getting punched in the face at random because you were wearing “specs” was just a normal thing. And despite this, I was still forced to attend sport.

    Sport involved me being deliberately tripped, punched and beaten by boys who knew I couldn’t see it coming. Sport involved standing in a field while boys kicked balls at me knowing they would ricochet off my face and into the net.

    The “adults” saw nothing wrong with this.

    Even from the sidelines I saw a culture where selfish and competitive behaviour was prioritised over competitive behaviour. Heck, I was even prevented from early advancement to university because that would mean me not having time to be “socialised” (brutalised).

    I can relate to sports where you are basically pushing yourself. But quite frankly, I dislike intensely the “aussie” culture that elevates sporting heroes over people who think and build and create. I also dislike the inherent eliteness of sport. The fact that you’re only special if your genes allow you to cut that extra couple of seconds in the pool. It offends me because its all part of the same religion where rich people are looked up to precisely because they are “special”.. and not simply just plain lucky.

    I also remember when the “footy” (read rugby league) involved a couple of hours of TV on a Saturday and maybe half an hour introduction and commentary. That was back in the late 70s. After that sports commentary became a national diseases. Not just on TV but everywhere. In all the trips I’ve made overseas, the one thing I never ever miss of my home country is the sports coverage . The endless blather. Other countries do sport. But only Australia does endless chatter about it.

    I really wish we would get real about this. Elite sport is over rated and over obsessed. Yes, its great to see people do amazing things. But when it becomes the stuff of national pride and endless debate. I mean like, yeah? Its sport. Play be the rules. If you don’t, you get tossed. Simple. Next.

  36. Cud:

    Thanks for sharing your story.

    I witnessed kids at school have similar experiences to you and am ashamed to say now that I did nothing to intervene or try to stop it at the time, even if I myself didn’t have the confidence to act directly. I don’t know if they were driven to severe depression, and I’d hope they weren’t.

    Bullying has no place in our society.

  37. Observers post is very astute IMO – the Saffers had a deliberate plan – hatched before the series – to target Warner and it worked a treat. It succeeded way beyond their wildest dreams.

  40. I wouldn’t go as far as suggesting CSA had anything to do with the masks, but good to see someone else around here who understands just how central sledging is to the game and indeed how it really part of the entertainment value of playing.

    I think a lot of people who aren’t really into the game completely misunderstand even what sledging in cricket is. Yes it can at times get ugly, but these are rarities. Simply being abusive doesn’t often work and umpires pull it up quickly.

    Mostly you’re talking to your own team about the batsman. Stuff like ‘catch is coming boys, this one’s a knicker’ or ‘this bloke don’t like the short stuff’. All this stuff gets chucked in as ‘sledging’. On the field it’s just the chat. It keeps you in the game and hopefully gets the opposition off theirs. And at the end of the day if someone’s come up with a particularly good sledge you congratulate them, or if the batsman has taken your best sledges and just serenely gone about his work to score a ton you shake their hand and say well played.

    A tiny number of unsavoury incidents get blown out of proportion and have people who don’t know the game lamenting the non stop sledging. Even under Waugh it was never like that.

  41. Quite agree Ratsak. If the SA board had any links to that, there would be a trail of sorts and that would be exposed. I don’t think they would be that dumb. As I said, the officials who posed with the fans wearing the masks may not have even known who Sonny Bill was and what all the fuss was about.

  43. My useless prediction is they players will challenge their penalties which will be altered to include within the existing bans suspended 6 month components.

    Eg Smith six month ban with further six month ban suspended so long he is of good behaviour

  44. I once took a fairly high dose of LSD before playing indoor cricket in what was a fairly competitive league.
    The sledging from the wicket keeper when I was batting took on a completely new and somehow, powerfully profound meaning.

  45. Meanwhile in South Africa Pain Time and the cumdog have had a good partnership. Cummins out for 50 just before lunch.
    Listened to some commentary. More sledging on PB it seems.

  46. Confessions

    “I have to admit, the KFC bucket and melon as the head gear of choice for crowds puzzles me. I’ve never understood it.”

    That’s it in one.. stupid stunts encouraged by stupid tv coverage to increase their advertising revenue.

  48. Ratsak

    That’s not the type of sledging I meant, but I can see a point that where it becomes incessant, to most people, this is unsportsmanlike. Mike them all up, and let us be the judge.

    Sledging may have become an integral part of the sport, but cricketers rarely get physical over it.

  49. Thought you were a Rah-Rah fan Bemused. SBW has had a stellar career in League, Union and Boxing. The incident at Clovelly Hotel certainly entertained the denizens of Sydney for some weeks
    I can’t believe that SA sporting officials do not know SBW or the implication of the masks. I do not necessarily believe that they were involved in their production

  50. bemused says:
    Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 8:34 pm

    …”Should I know who Sonny Bill is”…

    In the context to which he is being referred, you would be wise to go out of your way to not find out.

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