ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. Zoidlord @ #1598 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 1:21 am

    @BBCSteveR
    ·
    19m
    More from Russian TV’s Kiselev. Blaming Russia for Novichok poisoning is like saying “If someone’s hit over the head with an IPad, America’s to blame, since the IPad is a US invention.” (Not sure an IPad & a military-grade nerve agent are quite the same…)

    Zoid

    The point is the guy who first made the stuff lives in the USA, works for the US government and published a book with the formula in it so that a high school kid worth a lab could make it.

    In other words there are hundreds of possible manufacturers/holders, of which Russia is one of the least likely, given the stuff did not work very well. if it was military grade nerve gas then clearly the Russian military has the skill set of Mr Bean.

  2. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #1600 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 4:00 am

    Reminds me of the Russian “stages of denial” over MH17

    Pseudo

    The Russians are still in denial over M17 and the authorities have gone pretty quiet on it. The Russians say that it was a Ukranian attack on an aircraft mistaken for that of Putin.

    Again until there is a proper law trial with evidence scrutinized by all sides etc we cannot know.

  3. steve davis @ #1597 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 1:09 am

    But Labor has more than compensated for this by surging in South Australia following the collapse of Nick Xenophon’s party, with the bulk of a six-point slide for independents following the recent South Australian election going back to Labor’s primary vote ledger.

    The recent gains for the ­Coalition in the state that holds the greatest number of marginal seats and is regarded as electorally critical for both major parties, have been made against a longer term collapse in LNP support, which saw its primary vote in Queensland drop from 43.2 per cent at the election to a record low of 32 per cent in the final quarter of last year. In the past three months this has recovered four points to 36 per cent.

    The lift in Queensland for the LNP appear to have come primarily at the expense of One Nation, which has dropped back two points to 13 per cent this quarter compared to the last which covered a period in which the conservative minor party performed poorly in the Queensland state election.

    The states where the Coalition performed best at the election, Queensland and Western Australia, continued to show the greatest declines. At a national level, however, the Coalition finds itself ­beginning this year in the same position it ended 2017, trailing Labor on an average two-party-preferred vote of 47-53.

    More troubling for Liberal strategists will be Labor’s primary vote, which according to the longer term analysis, has been ahead of the ­Coalition’s in every quarter since the election bar one. Labor now leads the Coalition on the primary vote in every state, with a national average of 38 per cent compared to the Coalition’s 37 per cent.

    With Mr Turnbull having to confront his 30th losing Newspoll this month, the quarterly poll analysis will provide little promise of a recovery in the government’s fortunes.

    The Nationals have recovered some ground for the Coalition in the regions, lifting two points to 37 per cent this quarter. This is ­despite the Barnaby Joyce love-child scandal.
    Yet it has only regained enough to draw level with Labor, which has seen its greatest gains in the bush since the 2016 election, when it recorded just 30.8 per cent, with a seven-point overall jump in its primary vote.

    The Coalition, by contrast, is still seven points down on its election result of a regional primary vote of 44.2 per cent.

    Labor also continues to leads the Coalition on the primary vote across the nation’s capital cities.

    Gaining in SA will not compensate for Qld.

    I suspect that the imputation stuff will go down badly too in Qld, the retirement capital.

    I wonder if Shorten faces a particular “Rudd” factor in Qld, which Adani has reawakened.


  4. daretotread. (AnonBlock)
    Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 4:10 am
    Comment #1601

    Again until there is a proper law trial with evidence scrutinized by all sides etc we cannot know.

    Your got your head in the sand pretty hard if you believe that one. Russia is ruled by the Russian mafia; that is where the poor county is at.

  5. Observer, Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 7:45 pm
    “South Africa have once again bought the game into disrepute”
    you think Australian cricketers play tough but fair. That has gone out of the window. Which players are banned for breaching the laws & spirit of cricket & who banned them. It is ICC & CA.
    Please read the article I posted on Sunday, April 1, 2018 at 7:35 pm

  6. Ven

    When you have a South African twice found guilty of ball tampering and has not been suspended your argument goes out of the window

    The ICC penalties and the CA penalties in regards these 3 align how exactly?

    So Australians are judged on a different criteria than others because they are Australian?

    Why?

    The Indians and South Africa are the 2 Nations who have bought the game into disrepute over years

    All Series which attract the wrong type of attention involve either India or South Africa

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