BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns provide new grist for the BludgerTrack mill, highlighted by strong numbers for Labor in South Australia despite their unhappy state election result.

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).

Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.

It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.

The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.

Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

  1. bemused says:
    Friday, April 6, 2018 at 10:49 pm

    …”Thanks. It was a while ago now, 1993.
    My biggest failure was in thinking the hospital staff were professionals who knew what they were doing. They turned out to be a gang of goons.
    I wish you well in your battles”…


    Both my mother and father were psychiatric nurses during the 70’s and 80’s, my father was the first male matron of a psychiatric hospital in Australia.

    And in a place where the worst of the worst were permanently locked away.

    Many of the stories they have told me are horrific, electro-shock therapy was commonplace, my father was present, on at least two occasions, when doctors shoved knitting needles up people’s noses, into their brain to treat catatonia or schizophrenia.
    Patients were given dozens of medications, most of which were to treat the side effects of other medications.

    But, I simply cannot get beyond the idea that people with a severe, acute mental illness would be far better off, treated in an asylum, with a razor wire fence, than in a nursing hospital or a gaol.

  2. A of E
    Part of the tragedy with my son was that his condition was acute, but something that normally resolves in a few weeks. He just needed to be kept safe for that time. Instead they kept discharging him.
    They got him on the third discharge.

  3. ratsak says:
    Friday, April 6, 2018 at 11:00 pm
    What would the point of a Liberal Party not dominated by white men be?

    They might start thinking about representing the interests of people who aren’t rich white males.

    Ratsak

    You make very good point about who it is that really controls the Liberal party – ie. the people behind the scenes who control most of the wealth. But don’t forget that the richest person in Australia at the moment is a woman – Gina Rinehart – and there is a growing list of others who are steadily climbing the money tree.

    The notion that it is only rich men of a certain age who are pulling all the strings in the Liberal party may have been true once, but those days are long gone. Rich women are now flexing their political muscle and there is no reason to think that their choice of ideology with its self serving policies will be any different from their male counterparts.

  4. bemused says:
    Friday, April 6, 2018 at 11:54 pm

    …”A of E
    Part of the tragedy with my son was that his condition was acute, but something that normally resolves in a few weeks. He just needed to be kept safe for that time. Instead they kept discharging him.
    They got him on the third discharge”…


    Not your fault mate.
    NOT YOUR FAULT.

  5. Cat-killing assholes.

    Two guinea pigs and a cat belonging to former Russian spy Sergei Skripal, poisoned in a nerve agent attack in the UK last month, have died, British authorities have said.

    The two guinea pigs were found dead in Skripal’s house some time after the attack, apparently from dehydration, and a cat was put down after being discovered in a “distressed” state. Police sealed the house after Skripal and his daughter Yulia were discovered unconscious on a bench in Salisbury on March 4.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/04/06/europe/sergei-skripal-cat-guinea-pigs-dead-intl/index.html

    Of course the cat was “distressed”. It’s owner disappeared and nobody had been giving it food or water. Take care of the poor thing, don’t euthanize it.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Here’s all the lowdown from David Crowe on the latest Ipsos 52/48 poll.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-voters-warn-liberal-mps-to-keep-malcolm-turnbull-as-prime-minister-20180406-p4z840.html
    Peter Hartcher says that the Coalition is caught in a cycle of vengeance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-coalition-caught-in-cycle-of-vengeance-20180406-p4z84d.html
    PvO writes that while the looming 30th Newspoll will inevitably put more pressure on Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership, a look at the data tells us that he isn’t travelling as badly as Julia Gillard was at the same point in time.
    https://outline.com/WHjH3f
    And he says that coal-fired foolishness not enough to dislodge Malcolm Turnbull.
    https://outline.com/gFhwKd
    Karen Middleton writes that the Coalition’s Monash Forum claims its aim is to generate enthusiasm for coal-fired energy, but could it be as much about unseating Malcolm Turnbull as it is about fossil fuels?
    https://outline.com/g7XEzE
    And Paul Bongiorno looks at how the pro-coal right is going after Turnbull.
    https://outline.com/wAsLnp
    A messy proxy war over the future of coal in Australia’s power supply has slammed into a poll anniversary the PM would rather forget.
    https://outline.com/rSY5f8
    Van Badham wonders what the Liberal Party can do with its talent problem.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/06/what-can-the-liberal-party-do-about-its-talent-problem
    Jess Irvine on how economists rate Turnbull against Abbott.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/better-than-abbott-but-not-much-economists-give-verdict-on-turnbull-20180406-p4z84y.html
    Jacob Greber writes that Baby Boomers – approaching their last hurrah as Australia’s dominant political force – are the key to the next federal election.
    https://outline.com/BxcKD5
    Nicholas Stuart says that resigning would allow Turnbull to pretend he was a success.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/resigning-will-allow-malcolm-turnbull-to-pretend-he-was-a-success-20180405-p4z7xv.html
    Mike Seccombe’s article is headlined “Turnbull and the boomer racket”.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/04/07/turnbull-and-the-boomer-racket/15230232006058
    Tom McIlroy explains how the federal electorate shake-up could hand Shorten victory.
    https://outline.com/mvxW9Z
    AGL’s Andy Vesey is not going to stand being bullied over Liddell.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tarred-or-feathered-agl-s-vesey-shows-no-sign-of-budging-over-liddell-20180406-p4z83c.html
    Gerard Henderson mounts his usual sectarian defence of the Catholic church with respect to child sexual abuse and ABC bias.
    https://outline.com/BDgkub
    More embarrassment for the NSW government over the stadiums saga.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minister-s-embarrassing-email-revealed-amid-sydney-stadium-saga-20180406-p4z86p.html
    Aussie Home Loans has rejected almost all of the preliminary findings that the broker breached the law and called on the Hayne royal commission to undertake a proper analysis of the consequences of banning upfront and trailing commissions for mortgage brokers. Hayne must have hit the spot!
    https://outline.com/c5JeYS
    Julia Baird nicely dissects a “bloody week in history wars”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bloody-week-in-history-wars-as-alan-jones-takes-aim-at-opening-ceremony-and-abbott-group-seizes-on-australian-hero-20180406-p4z86l.html
    Elizabeth Knight writes that Australian banks are probably only a month away from facing one of their toughest-ever decisions – whether to increase interest rates. It comes down to a choice of profits versus popularity.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/profits-versus-popularity-the-dilemma-for-banks-20180406-p4z887.html
    The big banks are tracking and recording in minute detail every card transaction you make, and at least two of the big four – Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank – are making extra money selling that information to third parties.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/04/06/big-banks-sell-data-customer-spending-habits/
    Michael Pascoe puts it to us that populism is driving the wrong numbers with respect to the immigration debate.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/populist-drum-beats-wrong-numbers-drive-our-migration-debate-20180404-p4z7qk.html
    The Australian Taxation Office uses heavy-handed tactics to target small businesses, and one of its deputy commissioner’s admits the powerful institution sometimes makes mistakes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/calls-for-more-oversight-of-tax-office-amid-criticism-of-its-tactics-20180406-p4z866.html
    Crispin Hull has penned a good article on risk aversion and behavioural psychology as they apply to budget development.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-funds-for-poorer-schools-the-rational-not-popular-choice-20180405-p4z80y.html
    Kirsty Needham explains the trade stand-off that could shake the world
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/trade-standoff-tariffs-trump-xi-china-20180406-p4z81h.html
    Trump is kicking own gaols galore over trade.
    https://outline.com/RTChAF
    Madeline Albright has warned Trump about the dangers of fascism going unnoticed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fascism-goes-unnoticed-until-it-s-too-late-albright-sounds-alarm-on-trump-20180406-p4z84p.html
    Australia’s biggest light-rail project, from Sydney’s CBD to the eastern suburbs, is in disarray amid demands from its Spanish subcontractors for an extra $1.2 billion and NSW government accusations of a construction go-slow that could delay completion beyond next year.
    https://outline.com/xfRcp4
    With the private health insurance sector seeing double-digit profits in a dormant economic climate, all their justifications for premium hikes are spurious, writes Arthur Marusevich.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/private-insurance-rising-premiums-and-the-truth-behind-it-all,11370
    David Kane tells us why Warner should have appealed his 12-month ban.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/why-warner-should-have-appealed-his-12-month-ban-20180405-p4z81b.html
    Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ weekly sports column.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/folau-s-comments-are-an-anathema-to-the-greatest-of-rugby-s-values-20180406-p4z89c.html
    Australia is good at sports, and double standards, writes Nicolle White.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/04/06/australias-real-south-african-disgrace-nothing-cricket/
    Malcolm Knox has found sporting relief from the ball tampering ordure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/after-ball-tampering-saga-here-s-how-sport-can-pick-you-back-up-again-20180405-p4z81f.html
    Clive Palmer has been charged over an alleged corporate breach, uncovered in an investigation by the business watchdog ASIC..
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/queensland/2018/04/06/clive-palmer-charged-asic-management-coolum-resort/
    Another Michael West exposĂ© – UK betting giant, William Hill, is selling out of its Australian gambling operation, this country’s biggest, while it is under investigation by the Tax Office
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/taxman-closes-in-as-william-hill-skips-the-country/
    The federal government will block the departure of a live export ship next week unless it makes serious improvements to the conditions and welfare of the sheep onboard.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/06/live-export-ship-banned-from-leaving-dock-unless-welfare-conditions-met
    With complaints about the NBN’s shonky and inadequate service at an all-time high, and after having made compromises that have “rolled his stomach”, NBN Co CEO Bill Morrow has decided to jump this sinking ship two years before the project’s completion. Morrow’s tenure in charge of the operation has – to say the least – being turbulent, with the belligerent American being happy to defame and disparage his critics — so long as it’s under the cloak of Parliamentary privilege. Former Internet Australia boss Laurie Patton recalls one such occasion.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/goodbye-bill-morrow-the-nbn-nero-who-fiddled-and-raged-as-it-buffered,11371
    The partner of disgraced former assistant tax commissioner Nick Petroulias – who is alleged to have worked with him to put together up to $30 million worth of land deals at a NSW Aboriginal land council – has failed in a bid to have an ICAC inquiry into the transactions shut down.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/partner-of-former-tax-man-nick-petroulias-fails-to-stop-icac-inquiry-20180406-p4z880.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Lovely work from David Rowe on the ghost of John Monash.

    And he goes swampside with some disturbing imagery.

    Cathy Wilcox and the Monash Forum.

    Peter Broelman has some alternative events for the Commonwealth Games in Queensland.

    Zanetti thinks Shorten is doing it easy. – with a bit of help from Abbott.

    Mark Knight has Newspoll 30 in sight.

    As does Sean Leahy.

    Glen Le Lievre on energy security.

    The reincarnation of John Monash.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/cee128822d6ab7bf1aab8bb2306b532f
    David Pope on the indigenous issue.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/31320538bddef6bea97c622e308ce07039c55974
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-april-7-2018-20180406-h0yg4q.html

  7. I have just been watching the final stage of the paratriathlon. Impressive is too weak a word.

    With Gold Coast 2018 having the largest integrated Para-Sport program in Commonwealth Games history, Paratriathlon is ready to make its debut in the programme this Saturday. Twelve athletes (six men, six female) in the PTWC class will be vying for the medals over a sprint distance course, the same one used by the elite athletes this past Thursday.
    …
    Gold Coast will set a new Commonwealth Games record by hosting up to 300 paraathletes and 38 medal events across seven sports – an increase of 45 per cent more athletes and 73 per cent more medals compared to the parasport competition staged at the last Commonwealth Games in Glasgow in 2014. Athletics, Swimming, Lawn Bowls, Powerlifting, Track Cycling, Table Tennis and Triathlon will all be contested during Games, with Paratriathlon making its debut this Saturday.

    https://www.triathlon.org/news/article/paratriathlon_ready_to_make_its_debut_at_the_commonwealth_games

    I like the Commonwealth Games. It allows countries to compete in events that they would not get to in the Olympics, which are dominated by the usual big nations. While the richer commonwealth nations will take a lot of the medals, I was pleased, for example, to see Papua New Guinea get a Silver in weight-lifting. I would be seeing a lot more diversity in competitions if Ch7 was not obssessed with Australia winning gold medals in the swimming.
    I am disappointed our medalists are not paying tribute to the athletes who they have just beaten. The Institute of Sport et al needs to up its game as regard to sportsmanship, imo.

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