The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).
Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.
It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.
The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.
Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.
2,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”
John Falzon is a exemplar of the Labor value of social equity, and would make a fantastic MP. I hope he stands, he will romp in.
On the subject of surnames:
One of my ex-girlfriends was a strict vegan. Her surname? Butcher.
I’m sure we all know of Farmers who’ve never stepped foot on a farm. Not to mention black and white people called Black, White, Green, Brown and Grey.
Abbott taking a swipe at Turnbull and Murdoch taking a swipe at Prince Charles
From waay back a name that gave me a real larf was Cardinal Sin from the Philippines. He was up there with one of the names of the negotiators before war broke out in now former Yugoslavia, young General Panic.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2742 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
And totally sucks at doing so. I mean do we really have to go back to 1769 in order to learn a lesson about today’s Liberal party that is staring it in its face: the Libs need more women and cultural minorities and less Old White Men amongst its ranks if it is going to have a shot at ‘best and brightest’.
its often amusing seeing names of medical doctors. Not surprisingly there are a lot of doctors of chinese heritage called ‘Dr Wong’ (presumably there are also lots of ‘Dr White’). My dad once told me he encountered a ‘Dr Killim’.
My favourite is a gynaecologist in Adelaide – Dr. Elvis Seman.
I can’t imagine the gender or ethnicity of a Liberal politician would do anything to soften their political philosophy. Does it really matter what configuration of chromosomes Margaret Thatcher had? The policies were awful just the same
In Brisbane we have
Dr John Slaughter-Psychiatrist
Dr Thomas Slaughter- ENT
Dr David Slaughter-Paediatrician
Dr Richard Slaughter- Cardio
Dr Kate Slaughter- Ophthalmologist
Killing it, we are.
I have lived with the name Cox -and I hated it. When my father died I got his birth certificate only to find his name wasn’t Cox (he took Cox from a later violent step father) and my real name is Wallace.
I have now changed it.
Wouldn’t wish the name on anyone or anything.
Confessions @ #2749 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 8:09 pm
It wouldn’t make a scrap of difference if the party consisted purely of cultural minority women. The ideology of the party is rotten to the core. As William pointed out in an earlier post, Australia is increasingly moving to the left, after Howard and his henchmen forced it to the right.
Until they realign their ideology they’re not going to attract anyone of any cultural minority or any women, or anyone of any talent whatsoever. Just the usual chancers, failed business owners, filed lawyers and spivs.
Big A Adrian @ #2750 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 8:13 pm
Wasn’t there once a famous Dr De’Ath?
There is a Gastroenterologist called Dr Ooi. Reviews are poor!!!!!
There was also the eye doctor in Canberra – Dr Wong See
I wonder if it would. The party has been dominated by Old White Man values and priorities for years now and here is today’s Liberal party. Let’s see what a Liberal party dominated by women and cultural minorities would throw up. My guess is it would be vastly different to what the party gives us today.
Confessions @ #2750 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
The Liberal Party’s problem comes down to their policies.
That’s why Turnbull gave them a sugar hit in the beginning but once people worked out the policies hadn’t changed they dived in the polls again.
The only part gender has in this is that women, in general, are more progressive and are not attracted to these policies as much as men.
As for the women they do have, they are some of the most fervent advocates for their policy agenda.
Add more of them to the Party and I don’t think you would see much difference!!! 🙂
Confessions @ #2760 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 8:34 pm
You may be right that if the membership changed the ideology may change. However that isn’t going to happen as long as the old boy’s network rules the roost. By it’s very nature conservatism resists change everywhere it encounters it.
Friday, April 6, 2018 at 1:19 pm
…”Thanks for that KayJay.
I have known 3 people who committed suicide. One was my eldest son.
We did all we could and the worst thing we did was think the professionals at the hospital he was admitted to actually knew what they were doing. They were in fact fools.
I have subsequently played a role in probably averting another suicide. You never know if that would have been the outcome unless it actually happens”…
Sir, you have my utmost sympathy.
I cannot imagine the unending pain, that must belong to you, for having suffered a loss so great, in such a circumstance.
I have a younger brother who has spoken of killing himself since he was 12 years old.
I have a 9 year old son who displays the same tendencies.
My mother mostly, kept my brother alive during his dark times and I suppose I have learned from her.
Please be at peace.
You did not fail your son.
You did not.
Always liked dr crook
Absence of Empathy @ #2765 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 10:41 pm
Thanks. It was a while ago now, 1993.
My biggest failure was in thinking the hospital staff were professionals who knew what they were doing. They turned out to be a gang of goons.
I wish you well in your battles.
Is that the Medelaine Albright who said killing 500,000 Iraqi children was “worth it” ? Noice.
Sod this blog!
It shows me as logged in and comments I post just go nowhere.
So I log in again and re-post successfully.
The worst thing about it is you just can’t tell if you are really logged in and able to post or not.
Imagine if the Libs had fewer old white men dominating their policies.
A TALE OF OUR TIMES
In Sydney town once lived a clown
known far and wide, of great renown
for having quite enormous wealth
amassed by shifty guile and stealth
But flaunting wealth beyond belief
did grant his ego scant relief
he, in lust for adulation
vowed to lead our hapless nation
His foe an incoherent brute
coarse bully in ill fitting suit
a mere buffoon, an oafish sod
in this our land where wealth is god
And so in time it came to pass
the oaf turfed out upon his arse
the clown achieved his grand desire
the punters hailed their new messiah
They lauded him in speech and song
it seemed that he could do no wrong
they sighed with love and they could tell
he was so rich all would be well
He smiled a lot with teeth bright white
and vowed that all would be all right
and then when everything got worse
he blamed it on another’s curse
We must do more for less he cried
with less we must be satisfied
it’s hard, I know, I feel your pain
but I’m not one who will complain
With that he sheds a doleful tear
it’s tough on half a mil a year
we’ll give the tax cuts to the rich
the poor can pay, ain’t life a bitch
And when the veils fell from their eyes
they were ashamed to realize
he never really had a plan
he always was a hollow man
Confessions @ #2771 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 10:52 pm
Yep! They really need lots more female young fogeys.
What would the point of a Liberal Party not dominated by white men be?
They might start thinking about representing the interests of people who aren’t rich white males.
Then the rich white males would just need to create a new party. Those fuckers ain’t playin. What use is a party that isn’t completely focused on them to them? Certainly not worth the donations. You don’t pay for a whore to make someone else get their rocks off. If the Libs wanted to turn tricks for someone else then they’ll just get new whores. Liberals all understand this implicitly before they even join the party. They know what they are and who they are meant to make think they really are studs. The idea they could ever be other than this is fanciful stuff.
Innit nice how so many ,supposedly,”left” peeps so blithely stereotype a particular demographic when doing so is supposed to be roool bad but make an exception for ‘Old White Males” ?
haha. Poroti. You so sensitive. Bet you liked that story about the British pinpointing where the Russians made the Novichock?
From somebody who likes the Liberal Party:
Quite frankly, we need to get rid of the Liberal party. This organisation should be labelled as criminal organisation which supports terrorism (due to it’s illegal military activities in 2004-2008). Their political representatives should be arrested, habeas corpus suspended and they should be imprisoned without trial……. just like they did to many Catholics in Northern Ireland from 1968-1992.
Financial backers should be thoroughly financially audited and if found to have contributed to Liberal party activities should have their wealth confiscated.
All voters should have their ballot papers marked and those voters found to have voted for Liberal party candidates should be severely fined and made to attend mutually obligatory community education classes. Those that refuse should have all health, welfare and education benefits withdrawn.
Finally. Supporters of the Liberal party should be made to confront the reality of their crimes just as the German people where forced to confront the victims of the holocaust back in 1945.
Society needs a better way forward and we as a society need to be cruel in order to be kind to the lesser angels of our nature.
Another reason for AGL to hold onto Liddell and develop it as per their plans.
Otherwise the investors wouldn’t be happy.
Ms Heard said: Strategic investment in the repurposing of infrastructure and the adoption of new technologies to deliver increased generation capacity is exactly the kind of business planning that investors want to see from companies managing climate change impacts for their business.”
Selling or maintaining Liddell after announcing their plans for the site would make AGL look like a dinosaur.
From the SMH
Investor group says selling Liddell an investment risk
I guess I fit the stereotype.
Older white male retiree … probably a Tory voter because they are better economic managers and will look after my superannuation lurks and perks and all I see about me are young layabouts bludging on the dole when there is work for those who want it and even those with jobs seem to want things handed to them on a plate and even that Hanson woman talks a bit of sense thought I would never vote for her and don’t get me started on the gays and lesbians and the lefties at the ABC thank god The West Australian now runs Andrew Bolt …
Nah. Not me.
An observation on Turnbulls talent:
Talent? Turnbull was their talent. He came to power after deposing the imbecile, on the back of a wave of hope that a moderate centrist would now be PM, and govern for all. How horrible the reality was, a gutless fraud in fear of the loony right, and a sellout to all his principles. The LNP actually thinks Dutton is now their man, a bloke that could get a job frightening the kids on ghost train rides, and about as likeable as ebola. Goodbye conservatives.
Being cool with someone who said that shows the sort of person you are.What next Cheney and Rumsfeld opinions to enlighten us ?
Just to show that I can both chew gum and walk at the same time, can I say that I strongly disapprove of many foreign policy decisions made by Madeline Albright, yet thoroughly agree with her view that Trump is a fascist.
And this is a look by Poltifact at whether Albright was a hawk.
Ooh, Poroti. Narky. Am I still a Mccarthyist too?
poroti, yea, mate, it was probably BoJo. Haha.
Confessions @ #2772 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 7:52 pm
Yeah, which one of these is making a difference?
Confessions just doesn’t know any better and can’t help blurting out her sexism, ageism, racism, misandry and other prejudices.
A sad case.
If only we knew then the secret message of the Bangles’ “Walk Like an Egyptian”
“The party boys call the Kremlin
And the Chinese know (oh-way-oh)
They walk the line like Egyptian”
I’m sure the answer is on some temple wall! 🙂
To those convinced the Liberals have seen there end, please take a brief look at the Newspoll archives. It wasn’t all that long ago they got more than half the primary, and it was Labor in the doldrums. The Labor party hasn’t improved all that much since then.
Right now, the Liberals look like they could never regain government – let alone retain it. I think that’s a premature conclusion.
now you are just sounding flustered and desperate. If I were you, I’d be going for contrition and mea culpa.
Barney in Go Dau
It was indeed on a temple wall it was such a ‘silly song’ but ‘I Liked It ‘ 🙂