ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. Oakeshott Country @ #1549 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 8:43 pm

    Thought you were a Rah-Rah fan Bemused. SBW has had a stellar career in League, Union and Boxing. The incident at Clovelly Hotel certainly entertained the denizens of Sydney for some weeks
    I can’t believe that SA sporting officials do not know SBW or the implication of the masks. I do not necessarily believe that they were involved in their production

    I don’t really follow Rugby League these days and take a little more interest in the Wallabies, painful as that is.
    I have heard the name ‘Sonny Bill’. Is ‘Sonny’ a nickname or were his parents vindictive and gave him that name?

  6. Simply being abusive doesn’t often work and umpires pull it up quickly.

    Except if ‘sledging’ was confined to the on-field, good-humoured chirpy chatter you described, it wouldn’t have the reputation it has today, nor would sledging be automatically regarded as the nasty abusive bullying that the public has come to regard it as.

  7. The bowlers can look after themselves.

    Some of the batting techniques on display (Joe Burns is a standout) make you wonder who the fuck is coaching these people at any level.

  9. That’s his name. Of Samoan background unusually he grew up in a New Zealand Rugby League family and first came to fame with the Canterbury Bulldogs. He left mid season to go to union and subsequently changed teams more often than his underpants as ever increasing amounts of money came his way. He was a major influence in the All Blacks winning the 2015 RUWC

  11. Oakeshott Country @ #1559 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 8:57 pm

    That’s his name. Of Samoan background unusually he grew up in a New Zealand Rugby League family and first came to fame with the Canterbury Bulldogs. He left mid season to go to union and subsequently changed teams more often than his underpants as ever increasing amounts of money came his way. He was a major influence in the All Blacks winning the 2015 RUWC

    I feel no need to know any more and that is probably too much.

  12. Except if ‘sledging’ was confined to the on-field, good-humoured chirpy chatter you described, it wouldn’t have the reputation it has today, nor would sledging be automatically regarded as the nasty abusive bullying that the public has come to regard it as.

    Except fess as I’ve said the reputation is grossly overblown. A rare few incidents are blown out of all proportion so that somehow people imagine the entire game consists of fielders spending all day abusing the batsman. It’s bullshit. It doesn’t happen like that. At all.

  13. I know someone who just came back from watching the cricket in South Africa. They say that one of the Australian cricket followers actually abused David Warner’s wife during breakfast at the hotel over what happened. There are some very sick puppies out there.

  15. Oakeshott Country @ #1549 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 6:43 pm

    Thought you were a Rah-Rah fan Bemused. SBW has had a stellar career in League, Union and Boxing. The incident at Clovelly Hotel certainly entertained the denizens of Sydney for some weeks
    I can’t believe that SA sporting officials do not know SBW or the implication of the masks. I do not necessarily believe that they were involved in their production

    I live in Australia and didn’t know of the incident involving the now Mrs Warner and SBW until reading about it on PB today.

  19. A rare few incidents are blown out of all proportion

    If that were so the use of ‘sledging’ wouldn’t have turned up in a coroner’s report, nor would it have led to the circumstances where the captain and vice captain of Australia’s men’s cricket team were suspended from international and national competition. Nor would so many instances be documented via a simple Google search of the subject.

    I’m sorry ratsak, you obviously are influenced by your own personal experiences, as are most people. But as a fan of the game I’m ashamed that our team is so often reported at the forefront of such unsavoury practices on and off the field.

  22. Best sledger I’ve ever heard would start on the first ball of the day and keep it up until the last. He was relentless. Only ever said two words in a monotone. ‘Dot Ball’.
    Kept it up for the entire innings for every time there wasn’t a score. ‘dot ball’. I’ve seen batters so infuriated that they’d swing at absolute rubbish and get out. He just smiled. Waited for the next one.

  24. Glad you enjoyed the dz deathrays

    Loved it. Thought I saw Murray giving a brief homage to Elvis Costello with the glasses early on in the clip. I smiled a bit. 🙂

  25. “that the public has come to regard it as”

    Simply, when you play cricket at a certain level there are 2 Umpires on the field – one at the bowler’s end and one at square leg

    If anything untoward, including incessant appealing by the fielding side were in evidence the Umpires stepped in – including reporting players as necessary although that very rarely occurred

    But that aside how come “the public has come to regard it as”?

    There have been books written in the best “sledges”, including by the late Max Walker I think

    The public perception of what is said on the field of play is due to media and is misreporting

    If the “sledging” was as the media would have it, why would the teams enjoy each other’s company after stumps and after a game?

    Why are their enduring friendships with those who used to be your most fierce opponent?

    There are some exceptions of course as in all walks of life – but they are not the normal

    Look at Pietersen and Warne

    Then look at Samuels and Warne

    There are some on here being led by the nose by media without any analysis of the history of the game and the facts

    And next summer we have Kohli and his Indians here

    Australia will need to match their fierceness on the field or not turn up

    Mind you the Indians revert to their natural tongue when passing comment over batsmen

    In regard what is said on field I am one who does not have a high regard for Michael Clarke and in keeping with that opinion I thought his statement to Anderson that they would break his arm was at the very best very ordinary and the worst attempt to sledge I have ever heard – crass threat and “sledging” is not crass threat such as breaking an arm

  27. Personally I don’t think even a weakened Australian team has much to fear from India here. India are, for want of a better term, flat track bullies. Very difficult to beat on wickets that suit them, but throw in some bounce and most of their batsmen go to water. Very hard to beat on the sub continent, but we rarely see much from them here; some brilliant individual performances yes, but as a team, no. Important to remember too that Australia’s bowling has not been weakened by this incident.

  28. Matt,

    True. If we have Starc, Haze and Cummins fit for most of the series we will it. Australia will take 20 wickets, and India will struggle to do so.

  30. some brilliant individual performances yes, but as a team, no. Important to remember too that Australia’s bowling has not been weakened by this incident.

    I guess we’ll see how India fare in England later this year.

  31. There was a game we got sent in on a juicy greentop

    Survived until just before lunch with plenty of bruises inside the top of the pad because I always deduced the front foot was where to be on such decks

    Just before lunch looked to glance a shorter ball over leg but it climed so got my bat and gloves out of there in a hurry

    Vociferous appeal was given

    Stared at the Umpire and passed a comment to the celebrating bowler about the DNA of fast bowlers

    Into the change rooms and the bat and everything else go flying and into a cold shower – no ice baths in those days

    In comes the Umpire – to our change rooms – and apologises

    Show him the red welt just under my arm pit with comment including that he was so useless he could not get it up for Julie Christie

    “Sorry you feel like that and you are on report”

    2 matches!!

    “Laddy the Umpire is always right and is always the subject of respect”

    Wrong decision and in my space cut no curry

    Flabbergasted I was

    So I had a holiday

    These are the stories and the legend which stay with you – and they are almost exclusively pleasure

    Then we see masks and the impact of those masks on a player, his wife who was present with his children and the reputation of those who have played the game and do play the game

  32. See CA tv contract may be reduced on renewal from 1$B to 700M. The TV network ( who owns that again) will really cash in.
    Like Ratsak said, most of it goes through your mates. In baseball it is constant but never directly at an opponent.
    Comments when the ball is thrown to a particular bowler about someone being a bunny or whatever just keep some awake / alert in what can be a long day.
    The level of abuse sent to a partner off the field does not surprise me with SA supporters. Who remembers when Perth was threatened with loss of a test because of the racial abuse of SA players? It got hosed down quickly because it was in Africaan.
    Anyway, can hope for 6 and 6months good behaviour.

  33. The umpire in cricket is the only one allowed to give you the finger on the field…..and get away with it…..!
    I once was given out caught behind from a short ball after it missed my bat and hit my shoulder and went to first slip. Ump gave me out. Apparently he came up to apologise to me during a tea break as the opposition had admited it didn’t hit the bat, only to discover I wasn’t there but at the local hospital with a fractured shoulder….lol

  34. I was given out once after a spaceship landed on the pitch right in front of me, but no one else saw it. Distracted, I missed the ball and it hit middle stump. The spaceship then took off back to wherever they go.
    I couldn’t believe it when I saw the scorebook.

  35. Remember “can’t bat, can’t field, can’t bowl”? Gee Warnie must really have confused you Warner defenders. He sledged his own team mates as in this reference. And don’t give me the old it was the camera man routine either. Besides no one is saying stupid put downs are a problem on the field, just nasty bullying personal references.

  37. Clem A. He who could not do that was 60 metres away. The comment about the Qlder was to the capt standing two metres away.
    Unfortunately, got picked up by stump cam. Joe took the wrap because there was resistance to the intrusion of mikes etc onto the field by the players at that time and the TV network wanted it.
    Don’t think he played many tests after that.

  39. @GhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-1) ALP 54 (+1) #auspol

    #Newspoll WA Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 39 (0) ALP 39 (0) GRN 9 (0) ON 7 (+2)

    #Newspoll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 48 (+1) ALP 52 (-1) #auspol

    #Newspoll QLD Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+4) ALP 36 (-1) ON 13 (-2) GRN 9 (0)

    #Newspoll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+4) ALP 51 (-4) #auspol

    #Newspoll VIC Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 37 (0) ALP 38 (+1) GRN 13 (0) ON 4 (-2)

    #Newspoll VIC Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (0) ALP 54 (0) #auspol

    #Newspoll NSW Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+1) ALP 38 (+1) GRN 8 (-1) ON 6 (-4)

    #Newspoll NSW Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1)

  41. I see PB has been indulging in its traditional Easter barroom brawl, with defences of sledging, allegations of anti-Semitism, political impurity, threats of violence , personal attacks, dredging up of ancient, grudges, demands for retraction, appeals to William, bullying, mobbing and posturing (and victims’ rote complaints), consideration of legal action, plus a smattering of indignant resignations.

    Some people around here take the place (and themselves) FAR too seriously.

  44. unanswered question re cricket is just how big an issue is it, how common is it?
    i mean rules broken should have penalties – not hysteria.
    all sports push the rules – some have said ball tampering is not uncommon

  45. Labor has lost ground to the LNP in the key federal battleground state of Queensland where Bill Shorten has suffered a hit to his personal ratings in a sign that a vow to stop the Adani coalmine has damaged the Opposition Leader.

    However, Malcolm Turnbull would still face an election loss of more than 20 seats across the country, with Labor leading the Coalition in every state, according to analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted exclusively for The Australian in the first three months of this year.

  46. The Prime Minister is now one bad poll short of the same 30 lost Newspolls he set as the benchmark for Tony Abbott’s failed leadership, with the government having failed to recover any electoral ground it lost in the wake of the 2016 election. While the Prime Minister can point to his personal ratings as proof voters back him over Mr Shorten, the quarterly analysis has confirmed that even on this measure, it continues to slide.

    An average six-point lead over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister for the first three months of this year is the tightest the contest between the two leaders has been since the last election.

    The government, however, will be buoyed at least by a partial recovery in Queensland, which has seen the LNP lift four percentage points since the beginning of this year, with the Adani mine remaining a dominant political issue in the Sunshine State.

    Mr Turnbull also appears to have re-engaged Queensland voters, with his approval ratings soaring four points as preferred prime minister since the last quarter, providing him with a greater lead in personal approval ratings over the Opposition Leader — 12 points — than in any other state.

    It is now the state where Mr Shorten is also least liked, with the poll analysis covering the period during which the Labor leader came under sustained attack for his changing position on Adani.
    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would still face an election loss of more than 20 seats across the country.

  47. But Labor has more than compensated for this by surging in South Australia following the collapse of Nick Xenophon’s party, with the bulk of a six-point slide for independents following the recent South Australian election going back to Labor’s primary vote ledger.

    The recent gains for the ­Coalition in the state that holds the greatest number of marginal seats and is regarded as electorally critical for both major parties, have been made against a longer term collapse in LNP support, which saw its primary vote in Queensland drop from 43.2 per cent at the election to a record low of 32 per cent in the final quarter of last year. In the past three months this has recovered four points to 36 per cent.

    The lift in Queensland for the LNP appear to have come primarily at the expense of One Nation, which has dropped back two points to 13 per cent this quarter compared to the last which covered a period in which the conservative minor party performed poorly in the Queensland state election.

    The states where the Coalition performed best at the election, Queensland and Western Australia, continued to show the greatest declines. At a national level, however, the Coalition finds itself ­beginning this year in the same position it ended 2017, trailing Labor on an average two-party-preferred vote of 47-53.

    More troubling for Liberal strategists will be Labor’s primary vote, which according to the longer term analysis, has been ahead of the ­Coalition’s in every quarter since the election bar one. Labor now leads the Coalition on the primary vote in every state, with a national average of 38 per cent compared to the Coalition’s 37 per cent.

    With Mr Turnbull having to confront his 30th losing Newspoll this month, the quarterly poll analysis will provide little promise of a recovery in the government’s fortunes.

    The Nationals have recovered some ground for the Coalition in the regions, lifting two points to 37 per cent this quarter. This is ­despite the Barnaby Joyce love-child scandal.
    Yet it has only regained enough to draw level with Labor, which has seen its greatest gains in the bush since the 2016 election, when it recorded just 30.8 per cent, with a seven-point overall jump in its primary vote.

    The Coalition, by contrast, is still seven points down on its election result of a regional primary vote of 44.2 per cent.

    Labor also continues to leads the Coalition on the primary vote across the nation’s capital cities.

  48. @BBCSteveR
    ·
    19m
    More from Russian TV’s Kiselev. Blaming Russia for Novichok poisoning is like saying “If someone’s hit over the head with an IPad, America’s to blame, since the IPad is a US invention.” (Not sure an IPad & a military-grade nerve agent are quite the same…)

  49. Zoidlord @ #1597 Sunday, April 1st, 2018 – 10:21 pm

    @BBCSteveR
    ·
    19m
    More from Russian TV’s Kiselev. Blaming Russia for Novichok poisoning is like saying “If someone’s hit over the head with an IPad, America’s to blame, since the IPad is a US invention.” (Not sure an IPad & a military-grade nerve agent are quite the same…)

    Come on Zoid,

    I’ve got a batch brewing in the kitchen, haven’t you? 🙂

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