ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its commanding lead in the latest ReachTEL poll, as respondents give the thumbs down to company tax cuts.

A ReachTEL poll for Sky News finds Labor maintaining its 54-46 lead from the last such poll a month ago. However, the primary votes are not quite as strong for Labor as last time, when Labor’s two-party lead was subdued by a strong flow of respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. This time the Coalition is up one on the primary vote to 34%, while both Labor and the Greens are down a point, to 36% and 10% respectively, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

The poll also finds 56% of respondents opposed to company tax cuts, with only 29% supportive, and only 26% thinking it likely the cuts will be passed on to workers, compared with 68% for unlikely. Not surprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

Together with the Newspoll and Essential Research, the ReachTEL results have been included in the lastest BludgerTrack update, which once again records essentially no change on voting intention, with ReachTEL’s strong result for Labor cancelling out a weak one from Essential Research. However, Labor is up two on the seat projection for Queensland, mostly because Galaxy’s 52-48 lead for the Coalition in that state in a Courier-Mail poll a month ago is no longer exerting its pull. Also included are the latest leadership ratings from Newspoll, which take a small bite out of Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval and preferred prime minister lead. We should have Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns next week, which will make the BludgerTrack state breakdowns a little more robust.

If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can enjoy my piece today on how the recent halt to the rise of minor parties might play out in the Senate over the coming years. Below is a chart I knocked up to illustrate it, which I decided not to use. It combines federal and state election results, so that the reading at any point in time uses results from the most recent elections federally in each state, with each election weighted by its voting population.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,607 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Shellbell,

    Sorry, from previous thread…
    You mentioned last night that Geoff Lawson had racially abused the West Indies players in 1984. Do you have any more details on that? Or a link perhaps?

  2. Indian conglomerate Adani Enterprises Ltd. will miss its original deadline to start shipping thermal coal from one of the world’s biggest planned mines due to funding difficulties, even as it eyes export deals with Asian companies.

    The billionaire Gautam Adani-backed company has abandoned a 2020 target date to begin mining coal from the Carmichael project in Australia’s northeastern state of Queensland after failing to obtain up to A$3 billion ($2.3 billion) of funds from lenders by a March deadline, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. The company now expects first production to be delayed by up to a year, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the details are private.

    The group is also considering “unconventional” funding sources, one of which could include capital injections from other parts of Adani’s businesses, according to the person. Other avenues could include the potential sale of equity stakes in the rail and port infrastructure which Adani controls. The firm still plans to seek up to A$3 billion from lenders, the person said.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-28/adani-is-said-to-delay-australia-coal-shipment-eye-export-deals

  3. Not unsurprisingly, a question on whether Tony Abbott should return as Liberal leader after the next election finds little support, with 25% for yea and 64% for nay.

    I’m genuinely shocked that as much as 25% of voters want Abbott back, even after the next election.

  4. So Adani cannot convince lenders to provide finance. When banks around the world refuse to lend, there’s probably something amiss with your business case.

    Of course Malcolm could demonstrate faith in the project and lend Adani the $200 million odd that’s currently sitting in the Caymans.

  5. Observer: ‘Given your OH has just arrived home, and, to boot, has no taxable income, how come OH can afford to go out? I would have thought you would be restricted to your caravan, parked somewhere on the banks of the Murray so within walking distance of where?’

    Yes that is one possible explanation. There are others.

  6. The MSM are clueless about how to project their man.Maybe if they stopped criticising Shorten it might help.Fat chance of that.

  7. I really think that the truth about Dutton and the ‘babysitters’ must be made public. Why were they not as illegal as the poor souls trapped on Nauru/Manus? Some of those were made ‘illegal aliens’ by a sudden change of policy, which they could not have foreseen. Some of them would also make a great contribution to Australia, except that they have been traumatised.

    Turnbacks are one thing. Incarceration for years is quite another.

  8. steve davis

    But how do you project a klutz who barely goes 24 hours without stepping on a rake?

    She’s exempt: use of war widow as a Labor victim backfires on Coalition

    19 hours ago – Malcolm Turnbull’s attempt to use a 71-year-old war widow in his campaign against Bill Shorten’s tax credit crackdown has backfired after it emerged she was exempt under Labor’s new pensioner guarantee. The Prime Minister cited the example of Margaret Sykes — whose late husband served in the navy …

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/shes-exempt-use-of-war-widow-as-a-labor-victim-backfires-on-coalition/news-story/2ae9bc88507abc231c6685c11b3d0569

  9. Late Riser

    Can you imagine the hysteria at the Telegraph,The GG,2GB, Boltworld ,Planet Janet etc if Labor even hinted at nationalizing anything ? It would be considered as proof that Joe Stalin had been reincarnated and was leading the Labor party.

  10. poroti @ #20 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 5:41 pm

    Late Riser

    Can you imagine the hysteria at the Telegraph,The GG,2GB, Boltworld ,Planet Janet etc if Labor even hinted at nationalizing anything ? It would be considered as proof that Joe Stalin had been reincarnated and was leading the Labor party.

    Yeah.

    I have a sister who moved to Mackay to start sugar cane farming, and she showed me how the financials work. I commented “that’s pretty socialist”. We haven’t corresponded much since. (sad face) But that’s Mackay.

  11. Confessions @ #23 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    Coalition MPs in push to nationalise Liddell coal-fired power station

    Why?

    First sentence in the article: “A group of Coalition MPs are so intent on propping up AGL’s ailing Liddell power station they are calling on the Turnbull government to forcibly acquire the coal-fired power plant.”

    George Christensen was a closet socialist. Now we all know.

  12. Confessions @ #23 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 5:51 pm

    Coalition MPs in push to nationalise Liddell coal-fired power station

    Why?

    Coalition MPs: We believe in small government and letting the economy figure things out for itself.
    Economy: I figured out that coal is dead.
    Coalition MPs: We believe in big government and a regulated economy.

  13. poroti @ #20 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    Late Riser

    Can you imagine the hysteria at the Telegraph,The GG,2GB, Boltworld ,Planet Janet etc if Labor even hinted at nationalizing anything ? It would be considered as proof that Joe Stalin had been reincarnated and was leading the Labor party.

    Not to mention half of the PB commentariate.

  14. Mr Denmore‏ @MrDenmore · 9m9 minutes ago

    The Australian sniffing at independent senator Tim Storer scuttling the corporate tax cut bill because he got only 189 votes. So we should discount the pro tax-cut vote of ‘Family First’ senator-turned Lib, Lucy Gichuhi (152)?

  15. adrian @ #27 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    poroti @ #20 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    Late Riser

    Can you imagine the hysteria at the Telegraph,The GG,2GB, Boltworld ,Planet Janet etc if Labor even hinted at nationalizing anything ? It would be considered as proof that Joe Stalin had been reincarnated and was leading the Labor party.

    Not to mention half of the PB commentariate.

    Weird situation.

    Nationalise for coal

    Privatise for renewables.

    😆

  16. I wish I could convince Abetz, Abbott and Christensen to nationalise my car, pay me a good price, spend a fortune upgrading it to a 2018 model and then sell it to the Chinese for a song.

    I could have a new car, the taxpayers would be fleeced and the Chinese would be laughing all the way to the bank.

  17. How could Marshal Stalin be reincarnated when his death is naught but a monstrous lie perpetrated by the enemies of the revolution? Surely someone on this blog showed conclusively this past week that he is alive and well and playing Rugby for the NSW Waratahs? Anyway, full steam ahead with the nationalisation of the power station I say, it will probably run much more efficiently if it is moved to Armidale anyway.

  18. Perhaps instead of selling an expensively renovated Liddell to a Chinese company, the LNP could donate it to Adani as a sort of consolation prize.

  19. It never ceases to amaze me how stupid some MPs, notably Nats, are.

    The people who own and run Liddell presumably know a bit about power stations. They say it is clapped out, can’t be updated at reasonable cost and they have embarked on a plan to close it.

    The coal lovers want to keep it open. If they can’t buy it they want it seized by the government. Like to see the legalities around that.

    Then again these are the people who pay more than the seller was asking for Murray-Darling water rights.

    Better economic managers?

  20. The coalition should easily win the next election if the votes of those who usually don’t vote for them can be successfully purchased for a mere $1,000.

    Perhaps anyone thinking of going over to the Conservos to recoup $1,000 should re-visit the 2014 budget papers first in an attempt to cure their silliness. Hopefully they would then see that gaining $1,000 which will lead to them then losing many thousands just doesn’t make sense

  21. Marshall Stalin? …. You bastard – get it right. GENERALISSIMO

    Oops I just realised that Stalin refused the promotion and the uniform but allowed his acolytes to call him generalissimo

  22. Psyclaw

    John Howard thought $1000 could buy a vote. If I recall correctly there was a pensioner bonus of that amount one time.

  23. Groan
    Bloody AFL on TV again. I hope Meoldema appreciates my forbearance. I watch the Adelaide Crows with her as part of my darling daughter duties and manage to show interest in the last quarter. The game goes for far too long. Two ten minute halves should do it. That is long enough to find out who is the better team. The rest is a waste of time and energy.

    And to make it worse I have to listen to ^(*%$# Eddie Who? McGuire raving on about something of little importance.

    I am going to try to get some studying done for a short course on doing a review of literature for research.

    Maybe when they have some women on the football discussion panels I might show some interest. Then again, I probably won’t.

  24. Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 7:43 pm
    PeeBee says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 5:31 pm
    ‘Anyone willing to trade $1000.00 for the rest of the Lib’s policies sounds petty and selfish to me, but I’m a rude grumpy Vogon.’

    I suppose it is immediate and personal. Any other policy on both sides seem more remote.

    Everyone votes for selfish reasons. Some people are selfish as they would prefer a better hospital system. Others vote selfishly for more military expenditure as they see this as important. Etc.

    _________________

    A better hospital system is not selfish, in the way that $1000 to you from the ATO is. A better hospital system benefits everyone, rich, poor and in between.

  25. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 5:44 pm
    don,
    No doubt of the intent, but they could not find much dirt, could they?

    But! But! He speaks fluent Mandarin and used to be in the Labor Party! Simply UnAustralian!
    To the Coalition and The Australian anyway.

    ___________

    Indeed.

    However the ability to speak fluent Mandarin has been somewhat lowered in value for me since the unlamented (for me) departure of the Right Honourable Kevin Rudd MP, former PM (twice).

    That said, Storer looks like he is unusually bright and has integrity.

    Poor bugger, what is he doing in politics?

    On balance, I think that Labor should find him a safe seat for the HR or a high position on their senate list for the next election. We need people like him. Chuck out a time server/seat polisher and put Storer in.

    He only just scraped in as a senator. In the next election as an independent he may not be so lucky.

    I was very, very impressed with the text of his reasons for not accepting the blandishments of the LNP and voting in the changes (rorts) to the tax system.

  26. William’s sums in BludgerTrack give Dutton only a 19% probability of holding Dickson.
    I hope this holds, or gets lots worse.

  27. Fargo61 says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 7:07 pm
    Anyway, full steam ahead with the nationalisation of the power station I say, it will probably run much more efficiently if it is moved to Armidale anyway.

    Don’t. you. dare.

    By the way, did anybody else catch up with the news that the move of the vets to Armidale by Barnaby has been less than successful?

    Anybody who could get another job in Canberra did, and there are around a quarter of the originals who are possible contenders for the Armidale gig. They would be the ones who could not get a job anywhere else, methinks.

    So Armidale gets the dregs. Thanks Barnaby, great work as usual.

    And the new digs are over budget and over time. Who’d a thunkit?

  28. From the previous thread.

    Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 3:56 pm
    Comment #1619

    C@tmomma @ #1573 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 12:37 pm

    poroti @ #1569 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 12:31 pm

    This will change his vote for sure. Idiot Truffles.

    Kimberley Kitching
    @kimbakit
    Bungling PMTurnbull & sad-clowns @Coalition_Media spit dummy after failing to win independent Senator Tim Storer’s support for $65B unfunded big company tax cuts then give “dirt file” on Senator to Press Gallery
    predictable & inept #auspol https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-links-189vote-senator-tim-storer-blocking-tax-reform/news-story/6a6335b77118c448d888676e8b94ba1b

    4:18 AM – Mar 29, 2018
    78
    109 people are talking about this

    Yeah, grubby politics and not a good look because so obvious in it’s intent.

    How to win friends and influence people!!!

    This is as dumb as the ball tampering.

    Getting Storer offside potentially kills any legislation that does not have Green or Labor support. 🙂

  29. Well our illustrious leader did manage to sell FAI to HIH in his Merchant Banker days when his reputation was being a day too late and a dollar too high

  30. Yabba88 says:
    Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 8:08 pm
    William’s sums in BludgerTrack give Dutton only a 19% probability of holding Dickson.
    I hope this holds, or gets lots worse.

    As they say in the Australian Navy, ‘Make it so!’

  31. poroti @ #28 Thursday, March 29th, 2018 – 2:59 pm

    They want to nationalize it so they can sell it to a Chinese company. At mates rates for sure. Would be worth a couple of comfy jobs post politics .
    .
    “Morrison has no problem with Chinese-owned Liddell ”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/morrison-has-no-problem-with-chineseowned-liddell/news-story/7f77fbd7b7b23024c1f4cb10eaf264ab

    This was reported earlier in the week in the Guardian, Paul Karp I think, as something raised in the Coalition Party room meeting on Tuesday.

    It included the reference to the Chinese company who wanted to buy it.

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